arXiv subjects

Daniel J. Mortlock

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel J. Mortlock.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Unbiased Hubble constant estimation from binary neutron star mergers

Gravitational wave (GW) observations of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers can be used to measure luminosity distances and hence, when coupled with estimates for the mergers' host redshifts, infer the Hubble constant, $H_0$. These observations are, however, affected by GW measurement noise, uncertainties in host redshifts and peculiar velocities, and are potentially biased by selection effects and the mis-specification of the cosmological model or the BNS population. The estimation of $H_0$ from samples of BNS mergers with optical counterparts is tested here by using a phenomenological model for the GW strains that captures both the data-driven event selection and the distance-inclination degeneracy, while being simple enough to facilitate large numbers of simulations. A rigorous Bayesian approach to analyzing the data from such simulated BNS merger samples is shown to yield results that are unbiased, have the appropriate uncertainties, and are robust to model mis-specification. Applying such methods to a sample of $N \simeq 50$ BNS merger events, as LIGO+Virgo could produce in the next $\sim 5$ years, should yield robust and accurate Hubble constant estimates that are precise to a level of $\sim 2$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, sufficient to reliably resolve the current tension between local and cosmological measurements of $H_0$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Galaxy mass profiles from strong lensing I: The circular power-law model

In this series of papers we develop a formalism for constraining mass profiles in strong gravitational lenses with extended images, using fluxes in addition to positional information. We start in this paper with a circular power-law profile and show that the slope $γ$ is uniquely determined by only two observables: the flux ratio $f_1/f_2$ and the image position ratio $θ_1/θ_2$ of the two images. We derive an analytic expression relating these two observables to the slope, a result which does not depend on the Einstein angle or the structure or brightness of the source. We then find an expression for the uncertainty on the slope $σ_γ$ that depends only on the position ratio $θ_1/θ_2$ and the total S/N in the images. For example, in a system with position ratio $θ_1/θ_2=0.5$, S/N $=100$ and $γ=2$ we find that $γ$ is constrained to a precision of $\pm0.03$. We then test these results against a series of mock observations. We invert the images and fit an 11 parameter model, including ellipticity and position angle for both lens and source and measure the uncertainty on $γ$. We find agreement with the theoretical estimate for all mock observations. In future papers we will examine the radial range of the galaxy over which the constraint on the slope applies, and extend the analysis to elliptical lenses.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2019

Impact of using the ultra-high-energy cosmic ray arrival energies to constrain source associations

We present a Bayesian hierarchical model which enables a joint fit of the ultra-high-energy cosmic ray (UHECR) energy spectrum and arrival directions within the context of a physical model for the UHECR phenomenology. In this way, possible associations with astrophysical source populations can be assessed in a physically and statistically principled manner. The importance of including the UHECR energy data and detection effects is demonstrated through simulation studies, showing that the effective GZK horizon is significantly extended for typical reconstruction uncertainties. We also verify the ability of the model to fit and recover physical parameters from CRPropa 3 simulations. Finally, the model is used to assess the fraction of the the publicly available dataset of 231 UHECRs detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory (PAO) which are associated with the Fermi-LAT 2FHL catalogue, a set of starburst galaxies and Swift-BAT hard X-ray sources. We find association fractions of 9.5 (+2.4,-5.9), 22.7 (+6.6, -12.4) and 22.8 (+6.6, -8.0) per cent for the 2FHL, starburst galaxies and Swift-BAT catalogues respectively.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Prospects for resolving the Hubble constant tension with standard sirens

The Hubble constant ($H_0$) estimated from the local Cepheid-supernova (SN) distance ladder is in 3-$σ$ tension with the value extrapolated from cosmic microwave background (CMB) data assuming the standard cosmological model. Whether this tension represents new physics or systematic effects is the subject of intense debate. Here, we investigate how new, independent $H_0$ estimates can arbitrate this tension, assessing whether the measurements are consistent with being derived from the same model using the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). We show that, with existing data, the inverse distance ladder formed from BOSS baryon acoustic oscillation measurements and the Pantheon SN sample yields an $H_0$ posterior near-identical to the Planck CMB measurement. The observed local distance ladder value is a very unlikely draw from the resulting PPD. Turning to the future, we find that a sample of $\sim50$ binary neutron star "standard sirens" (detectable within the next decade) will be able to adjudicate between the local and CMB estimates.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

Inferring properties of the local white dwarf population in astrometric and photometric surveys

The Gaia mission will provide precise astrometry for an unprecedented number of white dwarfs (WDs), encoding information on stellar evolution, Type Ia supernovae progenitor scenarios, and the star formation and dynamical history of the Milky Way. With such a large data set, it is possible to infer properties of the WD population using only astrometric and photometric information. We demonstrate a framework to accomplish this using a mock data set with SDSS ugriz photometry and Gaia astrometric information. Our technique utilises a Bayesian hierarchical model for inferring properties of a WD population while also taking into account all observational errors of individual objects, as well as selection and incompleteness effects. We demonstrate that photometry alone can constrain the WD population's distributions of temperature, surface gravity and phenomenological type, and that astrometric information significantly improves determination of the WD surface gravity distribution. We also discuss the possibility of identifying unresolved binary WDs using only photometric and astrometric information.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

Clarifying the Hubble constant tension with a Bayesian hierarchical model of the local distance ladder

Estimates of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, from the distance ladder and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) differ at the $\sim$3-$σ$ level, indicating a potential issue with the standard $Λ$CDM cosmology. Interpreting this tension correctly requires a model comparison calculation depending on not only the traditional `$n$-$σ$' mismatch but also the tails of the likelihoods. Determining the form of the tails of the local $H_0$ likelihood is impossible with the standard Gaussian least-squares approximation, as it requires using non-Gaussian distributions to faithfully represent anchor likelihoods and model outliers in the Cepheid and supernova (SN) populations, and simultaneous fitting of the full distance-ladder dataset to correctly propagate uncertainties. We have developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the full distance ladder, from nearby geometric anchors through Cepheids to Hubble-Flow SNe. This model does not rely on any distributions being Gaussian, allowing outliers to be modeled and obviating the need for arbitrary data cuts. Sampling from the $\sim$3000-parameter joint posterior using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we find $H_0$ = (72.72 $\pm$ 1.67) ${\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ when applied to the outlier-cleaned Riess et al. (2016) data, and ($73.15 \pm 1.78$) ${\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ with SN outliers reintroduced. Our high-fidelity sampling of the low-$H_0$ tail of the distance-ladder likelihood allows us to apply Bayesian model comparison to assess the evidence for deviation from $Λ$CDM. We set up this comparison to yield a lower limit on the odds of the underlying model being $Λ$CDM given the distance-ladder and Planck XIII (2016) CMB data. The odds against $Λ$CDM are at worst 10:1 or 7:1, depending on whether the SNe outliers are cut or modeled, or 60:1 if an approximation to the Planck Int. XLVI (2016) likelihood is used.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2017

A deep search for metals near redshift 7: the line-of-sight towards ULAS J1120+0641

We present a search for metal absorption line systems at the highest redshifts to date using a deep (30h) VLT/X-Shooter spectrum of the z = 7.084 quasi-stellar object (QSO) ULAS J1120+0641. We detect seven intervening systems at z > 5.5, with the highest-redshift system being a C IV absorber at z = 6.51. We find tentative evidence that the mass density of C IV remains flat or declines with redshift at z < 6, while the number density of C II systems remains relatively flat over 5 < z < 7. These trends are broadly consistent with models of chemical enrichment by star formation-driven winds that include a softening of the ultraviolet background towards higher redshifts. We find a larger number of weak ( W_rest < 0.3A ) Mg II systems over 5.9 < z < 7.0 than predicted by a power-law fit to the number density of stronger systems. This is consistent with trends in the number density of weak Mg II systems at z = 2.5, and suggests that the mechanisms that create these absorbers are already in place at z = 7. Finally, we investigate the associated narrow Si IV, C IV, and N V absorbers located near the QSO redshift, and find that at least one component shows evidence of partial covering of the continuum source.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2016

Awakening the BALROG (BAyesian Location Reconstruction Of GRBs): A new paradigm in spectral and location analysis of gamma ray bursts

The accurate spatial location of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) is crucial for both producing a detector response matrix (DRM) and follow-up observations by other instruments. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) has the largest field of view (FOV) for detecting GRBs as it views the entire unocculted sky, but as a non-imaging instrument it relies on the relative count rates observed in each of its 14 detectors to localize transients. Improving its ability to accurately locate GRBs and other transients is vital to the paradigm of multi-messenger astronomy, including the electromagnetic follow-up of gravitational wave signals. Here we present the BAyesian Location Reconstruction Of GRBs ({\tt BALROG}) method for localizing and characterising GBM transients. Our approach eliminates the systematics of previous approaches by simultaneously fitting for the location and spectrum of a source. It also correctly incorporates the uncertainties in the location of a transient into the spectral parameters and produces reliable positional uncertainties for both well-localized sources and those for which the GBM data cannot effectively constrain the position. While computationally expensive, {\tt BALROG} can be implemented to enable quick follow-up of all GBM transient signals. Also, we identify possible response problems that require attention as well as caution when using standard, public GBM DRMs. Finally, we examine the effects of including the variance in location on the spectral parameters of GRB 080916C. We find that spectral parameters change and no extra components are required when these effects are included in contrast to when we use a fixed location. This finding has the potential to alter both the GRB spectral catalogs as well as the reported spectral composition of some well-known GRBs.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

Hierarchical Bayesian inference of galaxy redshift distributions from photometric surveys

Accurately characterizing the redshift distributions of galaxies is essential for analysing deep photometric surveys and testing cosmological models. We present a technique to simultaneously infer redshift distributions and individual redshifts from photometric galaxy catalogues. Our model constructs a piecewise constant representation (effectively a histogram) of the distribution of galaxy types and redshifts, the parameters of which are efficiently inferred from noisy photometric flux measurements. This approach can be seen as a generalization of template-fitting photometric redshift methods and relies on a library of spectral templates to relate the photometric fluxes of individual galaxies to their redshifts. We illustrate this technique on simulated galaxy survey data, and demonstrate that it delivers correct posterior distributions on the underlying type and redshift distributions, as well as on the individual types and redshifts of galaxies. We show that even with uninformative priors, large photometric errors and parameter degeneracies, the redshift and type distributions can be recovered robustly thanks to the hierarchical nature of the model, which is not possible with common photometric redshift estimation techniques. As a result, redshift uncertainties can be fully propagated in cosmological analyses for the first time, fulfilling an essential requirement for the current and future generations of surveys.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

A Bayesian analysis of the 69 highest energy cosmic rays detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory

The origins of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) remain an open question. Several attempts have been made to cross-correlate the arrival directions of the UHECRs with catalogs of potential sources, but no definite conclusion has been reached. We report a Bayesian analysis of the 69 events from the Pierre Auger Observatory (PAO), that aims to determine the fraction of the UHECRs that originate from known AGNs in the Veron-Cety & Veron (VCV) catalog, as well as AGNs detected with the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (Swift-BAT), galaxies from the 2MASS Redshift Survey (2MRS), and an additional volume-limited sample of 17 nearby AGNs. The study makes use of a multi-level Bayesian model of UHECR injection, propagation and detection. We find that for reasonable ranges of prior parameters, the Bayes factors disfavour a purely isotropic model. For fiducial values of the model parameters, we report 68% credible intervals for the fraction of source originating UHECRs of 0.09+0.05-0.04, 0.25+0.09-0.08, 0.24+0.12-0.10, and 0.08+0.04-0.03 for the VCV, Swift-BAT and 2MRS catalogs, and the sample of 17 AGNs, respectively.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

Quasars as probes of cosmological reionization

Quasars are the most luminous non-transient sources in the epoch of cosmological reionization (i.e., which ended a billion years after the Big Bang, corresponding to a redshift of z ~ 5), and are powerful probes of the inter-galactic medium at that time. This review covers current efforts to identify high-redshift quasars and how they have been used to constrain the reionization history. This includes a full description of the various processes by which neutral hydrogen atoms can absorb/scatter ultraviolet photons, and which lead to the Gunn-Peterson effect, dark gap and dark pixel analyses, quasar near zones and damping wing absorption. Finally, the future prospects for using quasars as probes of reionization are described.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2015

Bayesian model comparison in cosmology

The standard Bayesian model formalism comparison cannot be applied to most cosmological models as they lack well-motivated parameter priors. However, if the data-set being used is separable then it is possible to use some of the data to obtain the necessary parameter distributions, the rest of the data being retained for model comparison. While such methods are not fully prescriptive, they provide a route to applying Bayesian model comparison in cosmological situations where it could not otherwise be used.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2014

Photometric brown-dwarf classification. I. A method to identify and accurately classify large samples of brown dwarfs without spectroscopy

Aims. We present a method, named photo-type, to identify and accurately classify L and T dwarfs onto the standard spectral classification system using photometry alone. This enables the creation of large and deep homogeneous samples of these objects efficiently, without the need for spectroscopy. Methods. We created a catalogue of point sources with photometry in 8 bands, ranging from 0.75 to 4.6 microns, selected from an area of 3344 deg^2, by combining SDSS, UKIDSS LAS, and WISE data. Sources with 13.0 < J < 17.5, and Y - J > 0.8, were then classified by comparison against template colours of quasars, stars, and brown dwarfs. The L and T templates, spectral types L0 to T8, were created by identifying previously known sources with spectroscopic classifications, and fitting polynomial relations between colour and spectral type. Results. Of the 192 known L and T dwarfs with reliable photometry in the surveyed area and magnitude range, 189 are recovered by our selection and classification method. We have quantified the accuracy of the classification method both externally, with spectroscopy, and internally, by creating synthetic catalogues and accounting for the uncertainties. We find that, brighter than J = 17.5, photo-type classifications are accurate to one spectral sub-type, and are therefore competitive with spectroscopic classifications. The resultant catalogue of 1157 L and T dwarfs will be presented in a companion paper.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2014

Assessing the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone using Bayesian inference

We investigate the relationship between spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and ozone in the tropical upper stratosphere. We find that solar cycle (SC) changes in ozone can be well approximated by considering the ozone response to SSI changes in a small number individual wavelength bands between 176 and 310 nm, operating independently of each other. Additionally, we find that the ozone varies approximately linearly with changes in the SSI. Using these facts, we present a Bayesian formalism for inferring SC SSI changes and uncertainties from measured SC ozone profiles. Bayesian inference is a powerful, mathematically self-consistent method of considering both the uncertainties of the data and additional external information to provide the best estimate of parameters being estimated. Using this method, we show that, given measurement uncertainties in both ozone and SSI datasets, it is not currently possible to distinguish between observed or modelled SSI datasets using available estimates of ozone change profiles, although this might be possible by the inclusion of other external constraints. Our methodology has the potential, using wider datasets, to provide better understanding of both variations in SSI and the atmospheric response.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2013

Hierarchical Bayesian Detection Algorithm for Early-Universe Relics in the Cosmic Microwave Background

A number of theoretically well-motivated additions to the standard cosmological model predict weak signatures in the form of spatially localized sources embedded in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) fluctuations. We present a hierarchical Bayesian statistical formalism and a complete data analysis pipeline for testing such scenarios. We derive an accurate approximation to the full posterior probability distribution over the parameters defining any theory that predicts sources embedded in the CMB, and perform an extensive set of tests in order to establish its validity. The approximation is implemented using a modular algorithm, designed to avoid a posteriori selection effects, which combines a candidate-detection stage with a full Bayesian model-selection and parameter-estimation analysis. We apply this pipeline to theories that predict cosmic textures and bubble collisions, extending previous analyses by using: (1) adaptive-resolution techniques, allowing us to probe features of arbitrary size, and (2) optimal filters, which provide the best possible sensitivity for detecting candidate signatures. We conclude that the WMAP 7-year data do not favor the addition of either cosmic textures or bubble collisions to the standard cosmological model, and place robust constraints on the predicted number of such sources. The expected numbers of bubble collisions and cosmic textures on the CMB sky within our detection thresholds are constrained to be fewer than 4.0 and 5.2 at 95% confidence, respectively.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2013

(Lack of) Cosmological evidence for dark radiation after Planck

We use Bayesian model comparison to determine whether extensions to Standard-Model neutrino physics -- primarily additional effective numbers of neutrinos and/or massive neutrinos -- are merited by the latest cosmological data. Given the significant advances in cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations represented by the Planck data, we examine whether Planck temperature and CMB lensing data, in combination with lower redshift data, have strengthened (or weakened) the previous findings. We conclude that the state-of-the-art cosmological data do not show evidence for deviations from the standard cosmological model (which has three massless neutrino families). This does not mean that the model is necessarily correct -- in fact we know it is incomplete as neutrinos are not massless -- but it does imply that deviations from the standard model (e.g., non-zero neutrino mass) are too small compared to the current experimental uncertainties to be inferred from cosmological data alone.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2013

Estimating the large-scale angular power spectrum in the presence of systematics: a case study of Sloan Digital Sky Survey quasars

The angular power spectrum is a powerful statistic for analysing cosmological signals imprinted in the clustering of matter. However, current galaxy and quasar surveys cover limited portions of the sky, and are contaminated by systematics that can mimic cosmological signatures and jeopardise the interpretation of the measured power spectra. We provide a framework for obtaining unbiased estimates of the angular power spectra of large-scale structure surveys at the largest scales using quadratic estimators. The method is tested by analysing the 600 CMASS mock catalogues constructed by Manera et al. (2013) for the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). We then consider the Richards et al. (2009) catalogue of photometric quasars from the Sixth Data Release (DR6) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), which is known to include significant stellar contamination and systematic uncertainties. Focusing on the sample of ultraviolet-excess (UVX) sources, we show that the excess clustering power present on the largest-scales can be largely mitigated by making use of improved sky masks and projecting out the modes corresponding to the principal systematics. In particular, we find that the sample of objects with photometric redshift $1.3 < z_p < 2.2$ exhibits no evidence of contamination when using our most conservative mask and mode projection. This indicates that any residual systematics are well within the statistical uncertainties. We conclude that, using our approach, this sample can be used for cosmological studies.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2012

A robust constraint on cosmic textures from the cosmic microwave background

Fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) contain information which has been pivotal in establishing the current cosmological model. These data can also be used to test well-motivated additions to this model, such as cosmic textures. Textures are a type of topological defect that can be produced during a cosmological phase transition in the early universe, and which leave characteristic hot and cold spots in the CMB. We apply Bayesian methods to carry out a rigorous test of the texture hypothesis, using full-sky data from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe. We conclude that current data do not warrant augmenting the standard cosmological model with textures. We rule out at 95% confidence models that predict more than 6 detectable cosmic textures on the full sky.

astro-ph.CO↗