arXiv subjects

Daniel J. Williams

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel J. Williams.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

High-Dimensional Differential Parameter Inference in Exponential Family using Time Score Matching

This paper addresses differential inference in time-varying parametric probabilistic models, like graphical models with changing structures. Instead of estimating a high-dimensional model at each time point and estimating changes later, we directly learn the differential parameter, i.e., the time derivative of the parameter. The main idea is treating the time score function of an exponential family model as a linear model of the differential parameter for direct estimation. We use time score matching to estimate parameter derivatives. We prove the consistency of a regularized score matching objective and demonstrate the finite-sample normality of a debiased estimator in high-dimensional settings. Our methodology effectively infers differential structures in high-dimensional graphical models, verified on simulated and real-world datasets. The code reproducing our experiments can be found at: https://github.com/Leyangw/tsm.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Score Matching for Truncated Density Estimation on a Manifold

When observations are truncated, we are limited to an incomplete picture of our dataset. Recent methods propose to use score matching for truncated density estimation, where the access to the intractable normalising constant is not required. We present a novel extension of truncated score matching to a Riemannian manifold with boundary. Applications are presented for the von Mises-Fisher and Kent distributions on a two dimensional sphere in $\mathbb{R}^3$, as well as a real-world application of extreme storm observations in the USA. In simulated data experiments, our score matching estimator is able to approximate the true parameter values with a low estimation error and shows improvements over a naive maximum likelihood estimator.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Approximate Stein Classes for Truncated Density Estimation

Estimating truncated density models is difficult, as these models have intractable normalising constants and hard to satisfy boundary conditions. Score matching can be adapted to solve the truncated density estimation problem, but requires a continuous weighting function which takes zero at the boundary and is positive elsewhere. Evaluation of such a weighting function (and its gradient) often requires a closed-form expression of the truncation boundary and finding a solution to a complicated optimisation problem. In this paper, we propose approximate Stein classes, which in turn leads to a relaxed Stein identity for truncated density estimation. We develop a novel discrepancy measure, truncated kernelised Stein discrepancy (TKSD), which does not require fixing a weighting function in advance, and can be evaluated using only samples on the boundary. We estimate a truncated density model by minimising the Lagrangian dual of TKSD. Finally, experiments show the accuracy of our method to be an improvement over previous works even without the explicit functional form of the boundary.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Estimating Density Models with Truncation Boundaries using Score Matching

Truncated densities are probability density functions defined on truncated domains. They share the same parametric form with their non-truncated counterparts up to a normalizing constant. Since the computation of their normalizing constants is usually infeasible, Maximum Likelihood Estimation cannot be easily applied to estimate truncated density models. Score Matching (SM) is a powerful tool for fitting parameters using only unnormalized models. However, it cannot be directly applied here as boundary conditions used to derive a tractable SM objective are not satisfied by truncated densities. In this paper, we study parameter estimation for truncated probability densities using SM. The estimator minimizes a weighted Fisher divergence. The weight function is simply the shortest distance from a data point to the boundary of the domain. We show this choice of weight function naturally arises from minimizing the Stein discrepancy as well as upperbounding the finite-sample estimation error. The usefulness of our method is demonstrated by numerical experiments and a study on the Chicago crime data set. We also show that the proposed density estimation can correct the outlier-trimming bias caused by aggressive outlier detection methods.

stat.ML↗