arXiv subjects

Daniel Kirschen

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Kirschen.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Carbon Emission Flow Tracing: Fast Algorithm and California Grid Study

Power systems decarbonization are at the focal point of the clean energy transition. While system operators and utility companies increasingly publicize system-level carbon emission information, it remains unclear how emissions from individual generators are transported through the grid and how they impact electricity users at specific locations. This paper presents a novel and computationally efficient approach for exact quantification of nodal average and marginal carbon emission rates, applicable to both AC and DC optimal power flow problems. The approach leverages graph-based topological sorting and directed cycle removal techniques, applied to directed graphs formed by generation dispatch and optimal power flow solutions. Our proposed algorithm efficiently identifies each generator's contribution to each node, capturing how emissions are spatially distributed under varying system conditions. To validate its effectiveness and reveal locational and temporal emission patterns in the real world, we simulate the 8,870-bus realistic California grid using actual CAISO data and the CATS model. Based on year long hourly data on nodal loads and renewable generation, obtained or estimated from CAISO public data, our method accurately estimates power flow conditions, generation mixes, and systemwide emissions, and delivers fine grained spatiotemporal emission analysis for every California county. Both our algorithm and the California study are open-sourced, providing a foundation for future research on grid emissions, planning, operations, and energy policy.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2018

Combining Probabilistic Load Forecasts

Probabilistic load forecasts provide comprehensive information about future load uncertainties. In recent years, many methodologies and techniques have been proposed for probabilistic load forecasting. Forecast combination, a widely recognized best practice in point forecasting literature, has never been formally adopted to combine probabilistic load forecasts. This paper proposes a constrained quantile regression averaging (CQRA) method to create an improved ensemble from several individual probabilistic forecasts. We formulate the CQRA parameter estimation problem as a linear program with the objective of minimizing the pinball loss, with the constraints that the parameters are nonnegative and summing up to one. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method using two publicly available datasets, the ISO New England data and Irish smart meter data. Comparing with the best individual probabilistic forecast, the ensemble can reduce the pinball score by 4.39% on average. The proposed ensemble also demonstrates superior performance over nine other benchmark ensembles.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Controlled Islanding via Weak Submodularity

Cascading failures typically occur following a large disturbance in power systems, such as tripping of a generating unit or a transmission line. Such failures can propagate and destabilize the entire power system, potentially leading to widespread outages. One approach to mitigate impending cascading failures is through controlled islanding, in which a set of transmission lines is deliberately tripped to partition the unstable system into several disjoint, internally stable islands. Selecting such a set of transmission lines is inherently a combinatorial optimization problem. Current approaches address this problem in two steps: first classify coherent generators into groups and then separate generator groups into different islands with minimal load-generation imbalance. These methods, however, are based on computationally expensive heuristics that do not provide optimality guarantees. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to controlled islanding based on weak submodularity. Our formulation jointly captures the minimal generator non-coherency and minimal load-generation imbalance in one objective function. We relax the problem to a formulation with bounded submodularity ratio and a matroid constraint, and propose an approximation algorithm which achieves a provable optimality bound on non-coherency and load-generation imbalance. The proposed framework is tested on IEEE 39-bus and 118-bus power systems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Tractable and Robust Modeling of Building Flexibility Using Coarse Data

Controllable building loads have the potential to increase the flexibility of power systems. A key step in developing effective and attainable load control policies is modeling the set of feasible building load profiles. In this paper, we consider buildings whose source of flexibility is their HVAC loads. We propose a data-driven method to empirically estimate a robust feasible region of the load using coarse data, that is, using only total building load and average indoor temperatures. The proposed method uses easy-to-gather coarse data and can be adapted to buildings of any type. The resulting feasible region model is robust to temperature prediction errors and is described by linear constraints. The mathematical simplicity of these constraints makes the proposed model adaptable to many power system applications, for example, economic dispatch, and optimal power flow. We validate our model using data from EnergyPlus and demonstrate its usefulness through a case study in which flexible building loads are used to balance errors in wind power forecasts.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Minimal Input Selection for Robust Control

This paper studies the problem of selecting a minimum-size set of input nodes to guarantee stability of a networked system in the presence of uncertainties and time delays. Current approaches to input selection in networked dynamical systems focus on nominal systems with known parameter values in the absence of delays. We derive sufficient conditions for existence of a stabilizing controller for an uncertain system that are based on a subset of system modes lying within the controllability subspace induced by the set of inputs. We then formulate the minimum input selection problem and prove that it is equivalent to a discrete optimization problem with bounded submodularity ratio, leading to polynomial-time algorithms with provable optimality bounds. We show that our approach is applicable to different types of uncertainties, including additive and multiplicative uncertainties in the system matrices as well as uncertain time delays. We demonstrate our approach in a numerical case study on the IEEE 39-bus test power system.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Optimal Battery Control Under Cycle Aging Mechanisms in Pay for Performance Settings

We study the optimal control of battery energy storage under a general "pay-for-performance" setup such as providing frequency regulation and renewable integration. In these settings, batteries need to carefully balance the trade-off between following the instruction signals and their degradation costs in real-time. Existing battery control strategies either do not consider the uncertainty of future signals, or cannot accurately account for battery cycle aging mechanism during operation. In this work, we take a different approach to the optimal battery control problem. Instead of attacking the complexity of battery degradation function or the lack of future information one at a time, we address these two challenges together in a joint fashion. In particular, we present an electrochemically accurate and trackable battery degradation model called the rainflow cycle-based model. We prove the degradation cost is convex. Then we propose an online control policy with a simple threshold structure and show it achieve near-optimal performance with respect to an offline controller that has complete future information. We explicitly characterize the optimality gap and show it is independent to the duration of operation. Simulation results with both synthetic and real regulation traces are conducted to illustrate the theoretical results.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Model-Free Renewable Scenario Generation Using Generative Adversarial Networks

Scenario generation is an important step in the operation and planning of power systems with high renewable penetrations. In this work, we proposed a data-driven approach for scenario generation using generative adversarial networks, which is based on two interconnected deep neural networks. Compared with existing methods based on probabilistic models that are often hard to scale or sample from, our method is data-driven, and captures renewable energy production patterns in both temporal and spatial dimensions for a large number of correlated resources. For validation, we use wind and solar times-series data from NREL integration data sets. We demonstrate that the proposed method is able to generate realistic wind and photovoltaic power profiles with full diversity of behaviors. We also illustrate how to generate scenarios based on different conditions of interest by using labeled data during training. For example, scenarios can be conditioned on weather events~(e.g. high wind day) or time of the year~(e,g. solar generation for a day in July). Because of the feedforward nature of the neural networks, scenarios can be generated extremely efficiently without sophisticated sampling techniques.

cs.LG↗