arXiv subjects

Daniel Kuhn

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Kuhn.

67 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Calculating Optimistic Likelihoods Using (Geodesically) Convex Optimization

A fundamental problem arising in many areas of machine learning is the evaluation of the likelihood of a given observation under different nominal distributions. Frequently, these nominal distributions are themselves estimated from data, which makes them susceptible to estimation errors. We thus propose to replace each nominal distribution with an ambiguity set containing all distributions in its vicinity and to evaluate an \emph{optimistic likelihood}, that is, the maximum of the likelihood over all distributions in the ambiguity set. When the proximity of distributions is quantified by the Fisher-Rao distance or the Kullback-Leibler divergence, the emerging optimistic likelihoods can be computed efficiently using either geodesic or standard convex optimization techniques. We showcase the advantages of working with optimistic likelihoods on a classification problem using synthetic as well as empirical data.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Regularization via Mass Transportation

The goal of regression and classification methods in supervised learning is to minimize the empirical risk, that is, the expectation of some loss function quantifying the prediction error under the empirical distribution. When facing scarce training data, overfitting is typically mitigated by adding regularization terms to the objective that penalize hypothesis complexity. In this paper we introduce new regularization techniques using ideas from distributionally robust optimization, and we give new probabilistic interpretations to existing techniques. Specifically, we propose to minimize the worst-case expected loss, where the worst case is taken over the ball of all (continuous or discrete) distributions that have a bounded transportation distance from the (discrete) empirical distribution. By choosing the radius of this ball judiciously, we can guarantee that the worst-case expected loss provides an upper confidence bound on the loss on test data, thus offering new generalization bounds. We prove that the resulting regularized learning problems are tractable and can be tractably kernelized for many popular loss functions. We validate our theoretical out-of-sample guarantees through simulated and empirical experiments.

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arXiv2019

RLOC: Neurobiologically Inspired Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning Algorithm for Continuous Control of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

Nonlinear optimal control problems are often solved with numerical methods that require knowledge of system's dynamics which may be difficult to infer, and that carry a large computational cost associated with iterative calculations. We present a novel neurobiologically inspired hierarchical learning framework, Reinforcement Learning Optimal Control, which operates on two levels of abstraction and utilises a reduced number of controllers to solve nonlinear systems with unknown dynamics in continuous state and action spaces. Our approach is inspired by research at two levels of abstraction: first, at the level of limb coordination human behaviour is explained by linear optimal feedback control theory. Second, in cognitive tasks involving learning symbolic level action selection, humans learn such problems using model-free and model-based reinforcement learning algorithms. We propose that combining these two levels of abstraction leads to a fast global solution of nonlinear control problems using reduced number of controllers. Our framework learns the local task dynamics from naive experience and forms locally optimal infinite horizon Linear Quadratic Regulators which produce continuous low-level control. A top-level reinforcement learner uses the controllers as actions and learns how to best combine them in state space while maximising a long-term reward. A single optimal control objective function drives high-level symbolic learning by providing training signals on desirability of each selected controller. We show that a small number of locally optimal linear controllers are able to solve global nonlinear control problems with unknown dynamics when combined with a reinforcement learner in this hierarchical framework. Our algorithm competes in terms of computational cost and solution quality with sophisticated control algorithms and we illustrate this with solutions to benchmark problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Size Matters: Cardinality-Constrained Clustering and Outlier Detection via Conic Optimization

Plain vanilla K-means clustering has proven to be successful in practice, yet it suffers from outlier sensitivity and may produce highly unbalanced clusters. To mitigate both shortcomings, we formulate a joint outlier detection and clustering problem, which assigns a prescribed number of datapoints to an auxiliary outlier cluster and performs cardinality-constrained K-means clustering on the residual dataset, treating the cluster cardinalities as a given input. We cast this problem as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) that admits tractable semidefinite and linear programming relaxations. We propose deterministic rounding schemes that transform the relaxed solutions to feasible solutions for the MILP. We also prove that these solutions are optimal in the MILP if a cluster separation condition holds.

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arXiv2018

Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Kalman Filtering

We study a distributionally robust mean square error estimation problem over a nonconvex Wasserstein ambiguity set containing only normal distributions. We show that the optimal estimator and the least favorable distribution form a Nash equilibrium. Despite the non-convex nature of the ambiguity set, we prove that the estimation problem is equivalent to a tractable convex program. We further devise a Frank-Wolfe algorithm for this convex program whose direction-searching subproblem can be solved in a quasi-closed form. Using these ingredients, we introduce a distributionally robust Kalman filter that hedges against model risk.

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arXiv2018

Distributionally Robust Inverse Covariance Estimation: The Wasserstein Shrinkage Estimator

We introduce a distributionally robust maximum likelihood estimation model with a Wasserstein ambiguity set to infer the inverse covariance matrix of a $p$-dimensional Gaussian random vector from $n$ independent samples. The proposed model minimizes the worst case (maximum) of Stein's loss across all normal reference distributions within a prescribed Wasserstein distance from the normal distribution characterized by the sample mean and the sample covariance matrix. We prove that this estimation problem is equivalent to a semidefinite program that is tractable in theory but beyond the reach of general purpose solvers for practically relevant problem dimensions $p$. In the absence of any prior structural information, the estimation problem has an analytical solution that is naturally interpreted as a nonlinear shrinkage estimator. Besides being invertible and well-conditioned even for $p>n$, the new shrinkage estimator is rotation-equivariant and preserves the order of the eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix. These desirable properties are not imposed ad hoc but emerge naturally from the underlying distributionally robust optimization model. Finally, we develop a sequential quadratic approximation algorithm for efficiently solving the general estimation problem subject to conditional independence constraints typically encountered in Gaussian graphical models.

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arXiv2018

Distributionally robust optimization with polynomial densities: theory, models and algorithms

In distributionally robust optimization the probability distribution of the uncertain problem parameters is itself uncertain, and a fictitious adversary, e.g., nature, chooses the worst distribution from within a known ambiguity set. A common shortcoming of most existing distributionally robust optimization models is that their ambiguity sets contain pathological discrete distribution that give nature too much freedom to inflict damage. We thus introduce a new class of ambiguity sets that contain only distributions with sum-of-squares polynomial density functions of known degrees. We show that these ambiguity sets are highly expressive as they conveniently accommodate distributional information about higher-order moments, conditional probabilities, conditional moments or marginal distributions. Exploiting the theoretical properties of a measure-based hierarchy for polynomial optimization due to Lasserre [SIAM J. Optim. 21(3) (2011), pp. 864--885], we prove that certain worst-case expectation constraints are computationally tractable under these new ambiguity sets. We showcase the practical applicability of the proposed approach in the context of a stylized portfolio optimization problem and a risk aggregation problem of an insurance company.

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arXiv2017

Data-driven Inverse Optimization with Imperfect Information

In data-driven inverse optimization an observer aims to learn the preferences of an agent who solves a parametric optimization problem depending on an exogenous signal. Thus, the observer seeks the agent's objective function that best explains a historical sequence of signals and corresponding optimal actions. We focus here on situations where the observer has imperfect information, that is, where the agent's true objective function is not contained in the search space of candidate objectives, where the agent suffers from bounded rationality or implementation errors, or where the observed signal-response pairs are corrupted by measurement noise. We formalize this inverse optimization problem as a distributionally robust program minimizing the worst-case risk that the {\em predicted} decision ({\em i.e.}, the decision implied by a particular candidate objective) differs from the agent's {\em actual} response to a random signal. We show that our framework offers rigorous out-of-sample guarantees for different loss functions used to measure prediction errors and that the emerging inverse optimization problems can be exactly reformulated as (or safely approximated by) tractable convex programs when a new suboptimality loss function is used. We show through extensive numerical tests that the proposed distributionally robust approach to inverse optimization attains often better out-of-sample performance than the state-of-the-art approaches.

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arXiv2017

Data-driven Distributionally Robust Optimization Using the Wasserstein Metric: Performance Guarantees and Tractable Reformulations

We consider stochastic programs where the distribution of the uncertain parameters is only observable through a finite training dataset. Using the Wasserstein metric, we construct a ball in the space of (multivariate and non-discrete) probability distributions centered at the uniform distribution on the training samples, and we seek decisions that perform best in view of the worst-case distribution within this Wasserstein ball. The state-of-the-art methods for solving the resulting distributionally robust optimization problems rely on global optimization techniques, which quickly become computationally excruciating. In this paper we demonstrate that, under mild assumptions, the distributionally robust optimization problems over Wasserstein balls can in fact be reformulated as finite convex programs---in many interesting cases even as tractable linear programs. Leveraging recent measure concentration results, we also show that their solutions enjoy powerful finite-sample performance guarantees. Our theoretical results are exemplified in mean-risk portfolio optimization as well as uncertainty quantification.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

From Infinite to Finite Programs: Explicit Error Bounds with Applications to Approximate Dynamic Programming

We consider linear programming (LP) problems in infinite dimensional spaces that are in general computationally intractable. Under suitable assumptions, we develop an approximation bridge from the infinite-dimensional LP to tractable finite convex programs in which the performance of the approximation is quantified explicitly. To this end, we adopt the recent developments in two areas of randomized optimization and first order methods, leading to a priori as well as a posterior performance guarantees. We illustrate the generality and implications of our theoretical results in the special case of the long-run average cost and discounted cost optimal control problems for Markov decision processes on Borel spaces. The applicability of the theoretical results is demonstrated through a constrained linear quadratic optimal control problem and a fisheries management problem.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Scenario Reduction Revisited: Fundamental Limits and Guarantees

The goal of scenario reduction is to approximate a given discrete distribution with another discrete distribution that has fewer atoms. We distinguish continuous scenario reduction, where the new atoms may be chosen freely, and discrete scenario reduction, where the new atoms must be chosen from among the existing ones. Using the Wasserstein distance as measure of proximity between distributions, we identify those $n$-point distributions on the unit ball that are least susceptible to scenario reduction, i.e., that have maximum Wasserstein distance to their closest $m$-point distributions for some prescribed $m<n$. We also provide sharp bounds on the added benefit of continuous over discrete scenario reduction. Finally, to our best knowledge, we propose the first polynomial-time constant-factor approximations for both discrete and continuous scenario reduction as well as the first exact exponential-time algorithms for continuous scenario reduction.

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arXiv2016

Chebyshev Inequalities for Products of Random Variables

We derive sharp probability bounds on the tails of a product of symmetric non-negative random variables using only information about their first two moments. If the covariance matrix of the random variables is known exactly, these bounds can be computed numerically using semidefinite programming. If only an upper bound on the covariance matrix is available, the probability bounds on the right tails can be evaluated analytically. The bounds under precise and imprecise covariance information coincide for all left tails as well as for all right tails corresponding to quantiles that are either sufficiently small or sufficiently large. We also prove that all left probability bounds reduce to the trivial bound 1 if the number of random variables in the product exceeds an explicit threshold. Thus, in the worst case, the weak-sense geometric random walk defined through the running product of the random variables is absorbed at 0 with certainty as soon as time exceeds the given threshold. The techniques devised for constructing Chebyshev bounds for products can also be used to derive Chebyshev bounds for sums, maxima and minima of non-negative random variables.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Distributionally Robust Logistic Regression

This paper proposes a distributionally robust approach to logistic regression. We use the Wasserstein distance to construct a ball in the space of probability distributions centered at the uniform distribution on the training samples. If the radius of this ball is chosen judiciously, we can guarantee that it contains the unknown data-generating distribution with high confidence. We then formulate a distributionally robust logistic regression model that minimizes a worst-case expected logloss function, where the worst case is taken over all distributions in the Wasserstein ball. We prove that this optimization problem admits a tractable reformulation and encapsulates the classical as well as the popular regularized logistic regression problems as special cases. We further propose a distributionally robust approach based on Wasserstein balls to compute upper and lower confidence bounds on the misclassification probability of the resulting classifier. These bounds are given by the optimal values of two highly tractable linear programs. We validate our theoretical out-of-sample guarantees through simulated and empirical experiments.

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