arXiv subjects

Daniel Lacker

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Lacker.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

A case study on stochastic games on large graphs in mean field and sparse regimes

We study a class of linear-quadratic stochastic differential games in which each player interacts directly only with its nearest neighbors in a given graph. We find a semi-explicit Markovian equilibrium for any transitive graph, in terms of the empirical eigenvalue distribution of the graph's normalized Laplacian matrix. This facilitates large-population asymptotics for various graph sequences, with several sparse and dense examples discussed in detail. In particular, the mean field game is the correct limit only in the dense graph case, i.e., when the degrees diverge in a suitable sense. Even though equilibrium strategies are nonlocal, depending on the behavior of all players, we use a correlation decay estimate to prove a propagation of chaos result in both the dense and sparse regimes, with the sparse case owing to the large distances between typical vertices. Without assuming the graphs are transitive, we show also that the mean field game solution can be used to construct decentralized approximate equilibria on any sufficiently dense graph sequence.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Marginal dynamics of interacting diffusions on unimodular Galton-Watson trees

Consider a system of homogeneous interacting diffusive particles labeled by the nodes of a unimodular Galton-Watson (UGW) tree, where the state of each node evolves like a d-dimensional diffusion whose drift coefficient depends on (the histories of) its own state and the states of neighboring nodes, and whose diffusion coefficient depends only on (the history of) its own state. Under suitable regularity assumptions on the coefficients, an autonomous characterization is obtained for the marginal distribution of the dynamics of the neighborhood of a typical node in terms of a certain local equation, which is a new kind of SDE that is nonlinear in the sense of McKean. This equation describes a finite-dimensional non-Markovian stochastic process whose evolution at any time depends not only on the structure and current state of the neighborhood, but also on the conditional law of the current state given the past of the states of neighborhing nodes. Such marginal distributions are of interest because they arise as weak limits of both marginal distributions and empirical measures of interacting diffusions on many sequences of sparse random graphs, including the configuration model and Erdos-Renyi graphs whose average degrees converge to a finite non-zero limit. The results obtained complement classical results in the mean-field regime, which characterize the limiting dynamics of homogeneous interacting diffusions on complete graphs, as the number of nodes goes to infinity, in terms of a corresponding nonlinear Markov process. However, in the sparse graph setting, the topology of the graph strongly influences the dynamics, and the analysis requires a completely different approach. The proofs of existence and uniqueness of the local equation rely on delicate new conditional independence and symmetry properties of particle trajectories on UGW trees, as well as judicious use of changes of measure.

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arXiv2021

Quantitative approximate independence for continuous mean field Gibbs measures

Many Gibbs measures with mean field interactions are known to be chaotic, in the sense that any collection of $k$ particles in the $n$-particle system are asymptotically independent, as $n\to\infty$ with $k$ fixed or perhaps $k=o(n)$. This paper quantifies this notion for a class of continuous Gibbs measures on Euclidean space with pairwise interactions, with main examples being systems governed by convex interactions and uniformly convex confinement potentials. The distance between the marginal law of $k$ particles and its limiting product measure is shown to be $O((k/n)^{c \wedge 2})$, with $c$ proportional to the squared temperature. In the high temperature case, this improves upon prior results based on subadditivity of entropy, which yield $O(k/n)$ at best. The bound $O((k/n)^2)$ cannot be improved, as a Gaussian example demonstrates. The results are non-asymptotic, and distance is quantified via relative Fisher information, relative entropy, or the squared quadratic Wasserstein metric. The method relies on an a priori functional inequality for the limiting measure, used to derive an estimate for the $k$-particle distance in terms of the $(k+1)$-particle distance.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

A characterization of transportation-information inequalities for Markov processes in terms of dimension-free concentration

Inequalities between transportation costs and Fisher information are known to characterize certain concentration properties of Markov processes around their invariant measures. This note provides a new characterization of the quadratic transportation-information inequality $W_2I$ in terms of a dimension-free concentration property for i.i.d. (conditionally on the initial positions) copies of the underlying Markov process. This parallels Gozlan's characterization of the quadratic transportation-entropy inequality $W_2H$. The proof is based on a new Laplace-type principle for the operator norms of Feynman-Kac semigroups, which is of independent interest. Lastly, we illustrate how both our theorem and (a form of) Gozlan's are instances of a general convex-analytic tensorization principle.

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arXiv2020

Locally interacting diffusions as space-time Markov random fields

We consider a countable system of interacting (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic differential equations driven by independent Brownian motions and indexed by the vertices of a locally finite graph $G = (V,E)$. The drift of the process at each vertex is influenced by the states of that vertex and its neighbors, and the diffusion coefficient depends on the state of only that vertex. Such processes arise in a variety of applications including statistical physics, neuroscience, engineering and math finance. Under general conditions on the coefficients, we show that if the initial conditions form a second-order Markov random field on $d$-dimensional Euclidean space, then at any positive time, the collection of histories of the processes at different vertices forms a second-order Markov random field on path space. We also establish a bijection between (second-order) Gibbs measures on $(\R^d)^V$ (with finite second moments) and a set of space-time (second-order) Gibbs measures on path space, corresponding respectively to the initial law and the law of the solution to the stochastic differential equation. As a corollary, we establish a Gibbs uniqueness property that shows that for infinite graphs the joint distribution of the paths is completely determined by the initial condition and the specifications, namely the family of conditional distributions on finite vertex sets given the configuration on the complement. Along the way, we establish various approximation and projection results for Markov random fields on locally finite graphs that may be of independent interest.

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arXiv2020

Denseness of adapted processes among causal couplings

It is well known that any pair of random variables $(X,Y)$ with values in Polish spaces, provided that $Y$ is nonatomic, can be approximated in joint law by random variables of the form $(X',Y)$ where $X'$ is $Y$-measurable and $X' \stackrel{d}{=} X$. This article surveys and extends some recent dynamic analogues of this result. For example, if $X$ and $Y$ are stochastic processes in discrete or continuous time, then, under a nonatomic assumption as well as a necessary and sufficient causality (or compatibility) condition, one can approximate $(X,Y)$ in law in path space by processes of the form $(X',Y)$, where $X'$ is adapted to the filtration generated by $Y$. In addition, in finite discrete time, we can take $X'$ to have the same law as $X$. A similar approximation is valid for randomized stopping times, without the first marginal fixed. Natural applications include relaxations of (mean field) stochastic control and causal optimal transport problems as well as new characterizations of the immersion property for progressively enlarged filtrations.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Superposition and mimicking theorems for conditional McKean-Vlasov equations

We consider conditional McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (SDEs), such as the ones arising in the large-system limit of mean field games and particle systems with mean field interactions when common noise is present. The conditional time-marginals of the solutions to these SDEs satisfy non-linear stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) of the second order, whereas the laws of the conditional time-marginals follow Fokker-Planck equations on the space of probability measures. We prove two superposition principles: The first establishes that any solution of the SPDE can be lifted to a solution of the conditional McKean-Vlasov SDE, and the second guarantees that any solution of the Fokker-Planck equation on the space of probability measures can be lifted to a solution of the SPDE. We use these results to obtain a mimicking theorem which shows that the conditional time-marginals of an Ito process can be emulated by those of a solution to a conditional McKean-Vlasov SDE with Markovian coefficients. This yields, in particular, a tool for converting open-loop controls into Markovian ones in the context of controlled McKean-Vlasov dynamics.

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arXiv2019

A non-exponential extension of Sanov's theorem via convex duality

This work is devoted to a vast extension of Sanov's theorem, in Laplace principle form, based on alternatives to the classical convex dual pair of relative entropy and cumulant generating functional. The abstract results give rise to a number of probabilistic limit theorems and asymptotics. For instance, widely applicable non-exponential large deviation upper bounds are derived for empirical distributions and averages of i.i.d. samples under minimal integrability assumptions, notably accommodating heavy-tailed distributions. Other interesting manifestations of the abstract results include new results on the rate of convergence of empirical measures in Wasserstein distance, uniform large deviation bounds, and variational problems involving optimal transport costs, as well as an application to error estimates for approximate solutions of stochastic optimization problems. The proofs build on the Dupuis-Ellis weak convergence approach to large deviations as well as the duality theory for convex risk measures.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Many-player games of optimal consumption and investment under relative performance criteria

We study a portfolio optimization problem for competitive agents with CRRA utilities and a common finite time horizon. The utility of an agent depends not only on her absolute wealth and consumption but also on her relative wealth and consumption when compared to the averages among the other agents. We derive a closed form solution for the $n$-player game and the corresponding mean field game. This solution is unique in the class of equilibria with constant investment and continuous time-dependent consumption, both independent of the wealth of the agent. Compared to the classical Merton problem with one agent, the competitive model exhibits a wide range of highly nonlinear and non-monotone dependence on the agents' risk tolerance and competitiveness parameters. Counter-intuitively, competitive agents with high risk tolerance may behave like non-competitive agents with low risk tolerance.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2019

Inverting the Markovian projection, with an application to local stochastic volatility models

We study two-dimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of McKean--Vlasov type in which the conditional distribution of the second component of the solution given the first enters the equation for the first component of the solution. Such SDEs arise when one tries to invert the Markovian projection developed by Gyöngy (1986), typically to produce an Itô process with the fixed-time marginal distributions of a given one-dimensional diffusion but richer dynamical features. We prove the strong existence of stationary solutions for these SDEs, as well as their strong uniqueness in an important special case. Variants of the SDEs discussed in this paper enjoy frequent application in the calibration of local stochastic volatility models in finance, despite the very limited theoretical understanding.

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arXiv2018

Non-exponential Sanov and Schilder theorems on Wiener space: BSDEs, Schrödinger problems and Control

We derive new limit theorems for Brownian motion, which can be seen as non-exponential analogues of the large deviation theorems of Sanov and Schilder in their Laplace principle forms. As a first application, we obtain novel scaling limits of backward stochastic differential equations and their related partial differential equations. As a second application, we extend prior results on the small-noise limit of the Schrödinger problem as an optimal transport cost, unifying the control-theoretic and probabilistic approaches initiated respectively by T. Mikami and C. Léonard. Lastly, our results suggest a new scheme for the computation of mean field optimal control problems, distinct from the conventional particle approximation. A key ingredient in our analysis is an extension of the classical variational formula (often attributed to Borell or Boué-Dupuis) for the Laplace transform of Wiener measure.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

On the convergence of closed-loop Nash equilibria to the mean field game limit

This paper continues the study of the mean field game (MFG) convergence problem: In what sense do the Nash equilibria of $n$-player stochastic differential games converge to the mean field game as $n\rightarrow\infty$? Previous work on this problem took two forms. First, when the $n$-player equilibria are open-loop, compactness arguments permit a characterization of all limit points of $n$-player equilibria as weak MFG equilibria, which contain additional randomness compared to the standard (strong) equilibrium concept. On the other hand, when the $n$-player equilibria are closed-loop, the convergence to the MFG equilibrium is known only when the MFG equilibrium is unique and the associated "master equation" is solvable and sufficiently smooth. This paper adapts the compactness arguments to the closed-loop case, proving a convergence theorem that holds even when the MFG equilibrium is non-unique. Every limit point of $n$-player equilibria is shown to be the same kind of weak MFG equilibrium as in the open-loop case. Some partial results and examples are discussed for the converse question, regarding which of the weak MFG equilibria can arise as the limit of $n$-player (approximate) equilibria.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Mean field and n-agent games for optimal investment under relative performance criteria

We analyze a family of portfolio management problems under relative performance criteria, for fund managers having CARA or CRRA utilities and trading in a common investment horizon in log-normal markets. We construct explicit constant equilibrium strategies for both the finite population games and the corresponding mean field games, which we show are unique in the class of constant equilibria. In the CARA case, competition drives agents to invest more in the risky asset than they would otherwise, while in the CRRA case competitive agents may over- or under-invest, depending on their levels of risk tolerance.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2018

On a strong form of propagation of chaos for McKean-Vlasov equations

This note shows how to considerably strengthen the usual mode of convergence of an $n$-particle system to its McKean-Vlasov limit, often known as propagation of chaos, when the volatility coefficient is nondegenerate and involves no interaction term. Notably, the empirical measure converges in a much stronger topology than weak convergence, and any fixed $k$ particles converge in total variation to their limit law as $n\rightarrow\infty$. This requires minimal continuity for the drift in both the space and measure variables. The proofs are purely probabilistic and rather short, relying on Girsanov's and Sanov's theorems. Along the way, some modest new existence and uniqueness results for McKean-Vlasov equations are derived.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

From the master equation to mean field game limit theory: A central limit theorem

Mean field games (MFGs) describe the limit, as $n$ tends to infinity, of stochastic differential games with $n$ players interacting with one another through their common empirical distribution. Under suitable smoothness assumptions that guarantee uniqueness of the MFG equilibrium, a form of law of large of numbers (LLN), also known as propagation of chaos, has been established to show that the MFG equilibrium arises as the limit of the sequence of empirical measures of the $n$-player game Nash equilibria, including the case when player dynamics are driven by both idiosyncratic and common sources of noise. The proof of convergence relies on the so-called master equation for the value function of the MFG, a partial differential equation on the space of probability measures. In this work, under additional assumptions, we establish a functional central limit theorem (CLT) that characterizes the limiting fluctuations around the LLN limit as the unique solution of a linear stochastic PDE. The key idea is to use the solution to the master equation to construct an associated McKean-Vlasov interacting $n$-particle system that is sufficiently close to the Nash equilibrium dynamics of the $n$-player game for large $n$. We then derive the CLT for the latter from the CLT for the former. Along the way, we obtain a new multidimensional CLT for McKean-Vlasov systems. We also illustrate the broader applicability of our methodology by applying it to establish a CLT for a specific linear-quadratic example that does not satisfy our main assumptions, and we explicitly solve the resulting stochastic PDE in this case.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

From the master equation to mean field game limit theory: Large deviations and concentration of measure

We study a sequence of symmetric $n$-player stochastic differential games driven by both idiosyncratic and common sources of noise, in which players interact with each other through their empirical distribution. The unique Nash equilibrium empirical measure of the $n$-player game is known to converge, as $n$ goes to infinity, to the unique equilibrium of an associated mean field game. Under suitable regularity conditions, in the absence of common noise, we complement this law of large numbers result with non-asymptotic concentration bounds for the Wasserstein distance between the $n$-player Nash equilibrium empirical measure and the mean field equilibrium. We also show that the sequence of Nash equilibrium empirical measures satisfies a weak large deviation principle, which can be strengthened to a full large deviation principle only in the absence of common noise. For both sets of results, we first use the master equation, an infinite-dimensional partial differential equation that characterizes the value function of the mean field game, to construct an associated McKean-Vlasov interacting $n$-particle system that is exponentially close to the Nash equilibrium dynamics of the $n$-player game for large $n$, by refining estimates obtained in our companion paper. Then we establish a weak large deviation principle for McKean-Vlasov systems in the presence of common noise. In the absence of common noise, we upgrade this to a full large deviation principle and obtain new concentration estimates for McKean-Vlasov systems. Finally, in two specific examples that do not satisfy the assumptions of our main theorems, we show how to adapt our methodology to establish large deviations and concentration results.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Rare Nash Equilibria and the Price of Anarchy in Large Static Games

We study a static game played by a finite number of agents, in which agents are assigned independent and identically distributed random types and each agent minimizes its objective function by choosing from a set of admissible actions that depends on its type. The game is anonymous in the sense that the objective function of each agent depends on the actions of other agents only through the empirical distribution of their type-action pairs. We study the asymptotic behavior of Nash equilibria, as the number of agents tends to infinity, first by deriving laws of large numbers characterizes almost sure limit points of Nash equilibria in terms of so-called Cournot-Nash equilibria of an associated nonatomic game. Our main results are large deviation principles that characterize the probability of rare Nash equilibria and associated conditional limit theorems describing the behavior of equilibria conditioned on a rare event. The results cover situations when neither the finite-player game nor the associated nonatomic game has a unique equilibrium. In addition, we study the asymptotic behavior of the price of anarchy, complementing existing worst-case bounds with new probabilistic bounds in the context of congestion games, which are used to model traffic routing in networks.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Mean field games of timing and models for bank runs

The goal of the paper is to introduce a set of problems which we call mean field games of timing. We motivate the formulation by a dynamic model of bank run in a continuous-time setting. We briefly review the economic and game theoretic contributions at the root of our effort, and we develop a mathematical theory for continuous-time stochastic games where the strategic decisions of the players are merely choices of times at which they leave the game, and the interaction between the strategic players is of a mean field nature.

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