arXiv subjects

Daniel P. Palomar

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel P. Palomar.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Fast Projected Newton-like Method for Precision Matrix Estimation under Total Positivity

We study the problem of estimating precision matrices in Gaussian distributions that are multivariate totally positive of order two ($\mathrm{MTP}_2$). The precision matrix in such a distribution is an M-matrix. This problem can be formulated as a sign-constrained log-determinant program. Current algorithms are designed using the block coordinate descent method or the proximal point algorithm, which becomes computationally challenging in high-dimensional cases due to the requirement to solve numerous nonnegative quadratic programs or large-scale linear systems. To address this issue, we propose a novel algorithm based on the two-metric projection method, incorporating a carefully designed search direction and variable partitioning scheme. Our algorithm substantially reduces computational complexity, and its theoretical convergence is established. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed algorithm provides a significant improvement in computational efficiency compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Learning Large-Scale MTP$_2$ Gaussian Graphical Models via Bridge-Block Decomposition

This paper studies the problem of learning the large-scale Gaussian graphical models that are multivariate totally positive of order two ($\text{MTP}_2$). By introducing the concept of bridge, which commonly exists in large-scale sparse graphs, we show that the entire problem can be equivalently optimized through (1) several smaller-scaled sub-problems induced by a \emph{bridge-block decomposition} on the thresholded sample covariance graph and (2) a set of explicit solutions on entries corresponding to bridges. From practical aspect, this simple and provable discipline can be applied to break down a large problem into small tractable ones, leading to enormous reduction on the computational complexity and substantial improvements for all existing algorithms. The synthetic and real-world experiments demonstrate that our proposed method presents a significant speed-up compared to the state-of-the-art benchmarks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Efficient and Scalable Parametric High-Order Portfolios Design via the Skew-t Distribution

Since Markowitz's mean-variance framework, optimizing a portfolio that maximizes the profit and minimizes the risk has been ubiquitous in the financial industry. Initially, profit and risk were measured by the first two moments of the portfolio's return, a.k.a. the mean and variance, which are sufficient to characterize a Gaussian distribution. However, it is broadly believed that the first two moments are not enough to capture the characteristics of the returns' behavior, which have been recognized to be asymmetric and heavy-tailed. Although there is ample evidence that portfolio designs involving the third and fourth moments, i.e., skewness and kurtosis, will outperform the conventional mean-variance framework, they are non-trivial. Specifically, in the classical framework, the memory and computational cost of computing the skewness and kurtosis grow sharply with the number of assets. To alleviate the difficulty in high-dimensional problems, we consider an alternative expression for high-order moments based on parametric representations via a generalized hyperbolic skew-t distribution. Then, we reformulate the high-order portfolio optimization problem as a fixed-point problem and propose a robust fixed-point acceleration algorithm that solves the problem in an efficient and scalable manner. Empirical experiments also demonstrate that our proposed high-order portfolio optimization framework is of low complexity and significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by 2 to 4 orders of magnitude.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2023

Does the $\ell_1$-norm Learn a Sparse Graph under Laplacian Constrained Graphical Models?

We consider the problem of learning a sparse graph under the Laplacian constrained Gaussian graphical models. This problem can be formulated as a penalized maximum likelihood estimation of the Laplacian constrained precision matrix. Like in the classical graphical lasso problem, recent works made use of the $\ell_1$-norm regularization with the goal of promoting sparsity in Laplacian constrained precision matrix estimation. However, we find that the widely used $\ell_1$-norm is not effective in imposing a sparse solution in this problem. Through empirical evidence, we observe that the number of nonzero graph weights grows with the increase of the regularization parameter. From a theoretical perspective, we prove that a large regularization parameter will surprisingly lead to a complete graph, i.e., every pair of vertices is connected by an edge. To address this issue, we introduce the nonconvex sparsity penalty, and propose a new estimator by solving a sequence of weighted $\ell_1$-norm penalized sub-problems. We establish the non-asymptotic optimization performance guarantees on both optimization error and statistical error, and prove that the proposed estimator can recover the edges correctly with a high probability. To solve each sub-problem, we develop a projected gradient descent algorithm which enjoys a linear convergence rate. Finally, an extension to learn disconnected graphs is proposed by imposing additional rank constraint. We propose a numerical algorithm based on based on the alternating direction method of multipliers, and establish its theoretical sequence convergence. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Adaptive Estimation of Graphical Models under Total Positivity

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices \citep{lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation} and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices \citep{truell2021maximum}. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted $\ell_1$-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Affine equivariant Tyler's M-estimator applied to tail parameter learning of elliptical distributions

We propose estimating the scale parameter (mean of the eigenvalues) of the scatter matrix of an unspecified elliptically symmetric distribution using weights obtained by solving Tyler's M-estimator of the scatter matrix. The proposed Tyler's weights-based estimate (TWE) of scale is then used to construct an affine equivariant Tyler's M-estimator as a weighted sample covariance matrix using normalized Tyler's weights. We then develop a unified framework for estimating the unknown tail parameter of the elliptical distribution (such as the degrees of freedom (d.o.f.) $ν$ of the multivariate $t$ (MVT) distribution). Using the proposed TWE of scale, a new robust estimate of the d.o.f. parameter of MVT distribution is proposed with excellent performance in heavy-tailed scenarios, outperforming other competing methods. R-package is available that implements the proposed method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

A Fast Successive QP Algorithm for General Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization

The mean and variance of portfolio returns are the standard quantities to measure the expected return and risk of a portfolio. Efficient portfolios that provide optimal trade-offs between mean and variance warrant consideration. To express a preference among these efficient portfolios, investors have put forward many mean-variance portfolio (MVP) formulations which date back to the classical Markowitz portfolio. However, most existing algorithms are highly specialized to particular formulations and cannot be generalized for broader applications. Therefore, a fast and unified algorithm would be extremely beneficial. In this paper, we first introduce a general MVP problem formulation that can fit most existing cases by exploring their commonalities. Then, we propose a widely applicable and provably convergent successive quadratic programming algorithm (SCQP) for the general formulation. The proposed algorithm can be implemented based on only the QP solvers and thus is computationally efficient. In addition, a fast implementation is considered to accelerate the algorithm. The numerical results show that our proposed algorithm significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art ones in terms of convergence speed and scalability.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2020

Learning Undirected Graphs in Financial Markets

We investigate the problem of learning undirected graphical models under Laplacian structural constraints from the point of view of financial market data. We show that Laplacian constraints have meaningful physical interpretations related to the market index factor and to the conditional correlations between stocks. Those interpretations lead to a set of guidelines that users should be aware of when estimating graphs in financial markets. In addition, we propose algorithms to learn undirected graphs that account for stylized facts and tasks intrinsic to financial data such as non-stationarity and stock clustering.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Shrinking the eigenvalues of M-estimators of covariance matrix

A highly popular regularized (shrinkage) covariance matrix estimator is the shrinkage sample covariance matrix (SCM) which shares the same set of eigenvectors as the SCM but shrinks its eigenvalues toward the grand mean of the eigenvalues of the SCM. In this paper, a more general approach is considered in which the SCM is replaced by an M-estimator of scatter matrix and a fully automatic data adaptive method to compute the optimal shrinkage parameter with minimum mean squared error is proposed. Our approach permits the use of any weight function such as Gaussian, Huber's, Tyler's, or t-weight functions, all of which are commonly used in M-estimation framework. Our simulation examples illustrate that shrinkage M-estimators based on the proposed optimal tuning combined with robust weight function do not loose in performance to shrinkage SCM estimator when the data is Gaussian, but provide significantly improved performance when the data is sampled from an unspecified heavy-tailed elliptically symmetric distribution. Also, real-world and synthetic stock market data validate the performance of the proposed method in practical applications.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Solving High-Order Portfolios via Successive Convex Approximation Algorithms

The first moment and second central moments of the portfolio return, a.k.a. mean and variance, have been widely employed to assess the expected profit and risk of the portfolio. Investors pursue higher mean and lower variance when designing the portfolios. The two moments can well describe the distribution of the portfolio return when it follows the Gaussian distribution. However, the real world distribution of assets return is usually asymmetric and heavy-tailed, which is far from being a Gaussian distribution. The asymmetry and the heavy-tailedness are characterized by the third and fourth central moments, i.e., skewness and kurtosis, respectively. Higher skewness and lower kurtosis are preferred to reduce the probability of extreme losses. However, incorporating high-order moments in the portfolio design is very difficult due to their non-convexity and rapidly increasing computational cost with the dimension. In this paper, we propose a very efficient and convergence-provable algorithm framework based on the successive convex approximation (SCA) algorithm to solve high-order portfolios. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm framework is demonstrated by the numerical experiments.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2020

M-estimators of scatter with eigenvalue shrinkage

A popular regularized (shrinkage) covariance estimator is the shrinkage sample covariance matrix (SCM) which shares the same set of eigenvectors as the SCM but shrinks its eigenvalues toward its grand mean. In this paper, a more general approach is considered in which the SCM is replaced by an M-estimator of scatter matrix and a fully automatic data adaptive method to compute the optimal shrinkage parameter with minimum mean squared error is proposed. Our approach permits the use of any weight function such as Gaussian, Huber's, or $t$ weight functions, all of which are commonly used in M-estimation framework. Our simulation examples illustrate that shrinkage M-estimators based on the proposed optimal tuning combined with robust weight function do not loose in performance to shrinkage SCM estimator when the data is Gaussian, but provide significantly improved performance when the data is sampled from a heavy-tailed distribution.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Robust Factor Analysis Parameter Estimation

This paper considers the problem of robustly estimating the parameters of a heavy-tailed multivariate distribution when the covariance matrix is known to have the structure of a low-rank matrix plus a diagonal matrix as considered in factor analysis (FA). By assuming the observed data to follow the multivariate Student's t distribution, we can robustly estimate the parameters via maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). However, the MLE of parameters becomes an intractable problem when the multivariate Student's t distribution and the FA structure are both introduced. In this paper, we propose an algorithm based on the generalized expectation maximization (GEM) method to obtain estimators. The robustness of our proposed method is further enhanced to cope with missing values. Finally, we show the performance of our proposed algorithm using both synthetic data and real financial data.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2019

Structured Graph Learning Via Laplacian Spectral Constraints

Learning a graph with a specific structure is essential for interpretability and identification of the relationships among data. It is well known that structured graph learning from observed samples is an NP-hard combinatorial problem. In this paper, we first show that for a set of important graph families it is possible to convert the structural constraints of structure into eigenvalue constraints of the graph Laplacian matrix. Then we introduce a unified graph learning framework, lying at the integration of the spectral properties of the Laplacian matrix with Gaussian graphical modeling that is capable of learning structures of a large class of graph families. The proposed algorithms are provably convergent and practically amenable for large-scale semi-supervised and unsupervised graph-based learning tasks. Extensive numerical experiments with both synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. An R package containing code for all the experimental results is available at https://cran.r-project.org/package=spectralGraphTopology.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Distributed Inexact Successive Convex Approximation ADMM: Analysis-Part I

In this two-part work, we propose an algorithmic framework for solving non-convex problems whose objective function is the sum of a number of smooth component functions plus a convex (possibly non-smooth) or/and smooth (possibly non-convex) regularization function. The proposed algorithm incorporates ideas from several existing approaches such as alternate direction method of multipliers (ADMM), successive convex approximation (SCA), distributed and asynchronous algorithms, and inexact gradient methods. Different from a number of existing approaches, however, the proposed framework is flexible enough to incorporate a class of non-convex objective functions, allow distributed operation with and without a fusion center, and include variance reduced methods as special cases. Remarkably, the proposed algorithms are robust to uncertainties arising from random, deterministic, and adversarial sources. The part I of the paper develops two variants of the algorithm under very mild assumptions and establishes first-order convergence rate guarantees. The proof developed here allows for generic errors and delays, paving the way for different variance-reduced, asynchronous, and stochastic implementations, outlined and evaluated in part II.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Optimization of MIMO Device-to-Device Networks via Matrix Fractional Programming: A Minorization-Maximization Approach

Interference management is a fundamental issue in device-to-device (D2D) communications whenever the transmitter-and-receiver pairs are located in close proximity and frequencies are fully reused, so active links may severely interfere with each other. This paper devises an optimization strategy named FPLinQ to coordinate the link scheduling decisions among the interfering links, along with power control and beamforming. The key enabler is a novel optimization method called matrix fractional programming (FP) that generalizes previous scalar and vector forms of FP in allowing multiple data streams per link. From a theoretical perspective, this paper provides a deeper understanding of FP by showing a connection to the minorization-maximization (MM) algorithm. From an application perspective, this paper shows that as compared to the existing methods for coordinating scheduling in the D2D network, such as FlashLinQ, ITLinQ, and ITLinQ+, the proposed FPLinQ approach is more general in allowing multiple antennas at both the transmitters and the receivers, and further in allowing arbitrary and multiple possible associations between the devices via matching. Numerical results show that FPLinQ significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art in a typical D2D communication environment.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2019

Parameter Estimation of Heavy-Tailed AR Model with Missing Data via Stochastic EM

The autoregressive (AR) model is a widely used model to understand time series data. Traditionally, the innovation noise of the AR is modeled as Gaussian. However, many time series applications, for example, financial time series data, are non-Gaussian, therefore, the AR model with more general heavy-tailed innovations is preferred. Another issue that frequently occurs in time series is missing values, due to system data record failure or unexpected data loss. Although there are numerous works about Gaussian AR time series with missing values, as far as we know, there does not exist any work addressing the issue of missing data for the heavy-tailed AR model. In this paper, we consider this issue for the first time, and propose an efficient framework for parameter estimation from incomplete heavy-tailed time series based on a stochastic approximation expectation maximization (SAEM) coupled with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure. The proposed algorithm is computationally cheap and easy to implement. The convergence of the proposed algorithm to a stationary point of the observed data likelihood is rigorously proved. Extensive simulations and real datasets analyses demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed framework.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Sparse Reduced Rank Regression With Nonconvex Regularization

In this paper, the estimation problem for sparse reduced rank regression (SRRR) model is considered. The SRRR model is widely used for dimension reduction and variable selection with applications in signal processing, econometrics, etc. The problem is formulated to minimize the least squares loss with a sparsity-inducing penalty considering an orthogonality constraint. Convex sparsity-inducing functions have been used for SRRR in literature. In this work, a nonconvex function is proposed for better sparsity inducing. An efficient algorithm is developed based on the alternating minimization (or projection) method to solve the nonconvex optimization problem. Numerical simulations show that the proposed algorithm is much more efficient compared to the benchmark methods and the nonconvex function can result in a better estimation accuracy.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Optimal Portfolio Design for Statistical Arbitrage in Finance

In this paper, the optimal mean-reverting portfolio (MRP) design problem is considered, which plays an important role for the statistical arbitrage (a.k.a. pairs trading) strategy in financial markets. The target of the optimal MRP design is to construct a portfolio from the underlying assets that can exhibit a satisfactory mean reversion property and a desirable variance property. A general problem formulation is proposed by considering these two targets and an investment leverage constraint. To solve this problem, a successive convex approximation method is used. The performance of the proposed model and algorithms are verified by numerical simulations.

q-fin.PM↗