arXiv subjects

Daniel Ralston

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Ralston.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Information Revelation and Alignment Faking in Stochastic Differential Games

In competitive games with private objectives, actions can reveal information about hidden parameters. However, quantifying such information revelation is nontrivial, since it depends not only on the opponent's hidden parameter but also on the opponent's model of the game. We study this problem via a two-player linear-quadratic stochastic differential game under partial information, in which each player knows its own coupling parameter and models the opponent's hidden parameter through a prior. Starting from the full-information game, we characterize the Nash equilibrium by coupled Riccati equations. We then define baseline implementable controls by averaging the equilibrium under each player's prior. Building on this baseline, we formulate an alignment faking control problem in which one player trades off fidelity to its implementable policy against information acquisition about the opponent's hidden parameter. The information incentive is constructed from a proxy Fisher information matrix based only on the player's available model. This leads to a tractable saddle-point formulation with semi-explicit control characterization through Riccati systems. Numerical illustrations show that alignment faking can substantially improve information gain over baseline play when the faker's model is accurate, but often at the cost of greater detectability. They also show that the proxy Fisher information can systematically differ from the true information under model misspecification.

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arXiv2025

Strategic Inference in Stackelberg Games: Optimal Control for Revealing Adversary Intent

We study a continuous-time stochastic Stackelberg game in which a leader seeks to accomplish a primary objective while inferring a hidden parameter of a rational follower. The follower solves an entropy-regularized tracking problem and responds to the leader's trajectory with a randomized policy. Anticipating this response, the leader designs informative controls to maximize the estimation efficiency for the follower's latent intent, through maximum likelihood estimation. Unlike prior work on discrete-time or finite-candidate inverse learning, our framework enables continuous parameter inference without prior assumptions and endogenizes the information source through the follower's strategic feedback. We derive semi-explicit solutions, prove well-posedness, and develop recurrent neural network algorithms to approximate the leader's path-dependent control. Numerical experiments demonstrate how the leader balances task performance and information gain, highlighting the practical value of our approach for adversarial strategic inference.

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arXiv2025

Adversarial Decision-Making in Partially Observable Multi-Agent Systems: A Sequential Hypothesis Testing Approach

Adversarial decision-making in partially observable multi-agent systems requires sophisticated strategies for both deception and counter-deception. This paper presents a sequential hypothesis testing (SHT)-driven framework that captures the interplay between strategic misdirection and inference in adversarial environments. We formulate this interaction as a partially observable Stackelberg game, where a follower agent (blue team) seeks to fulfill its primary task while actively misleading an adversarial leader (red team). In opposition, the red team, leveraging leaked information, instills carefully designed patterns to manipulate the blue team's behavior, mitigating the misdirection effect. Unlike conventional approaches that focus on robust control under adversarial uncertainty, our framework explicitly models deception as a dynamic optimization problem, where both agents strategically adapt their policies in response to inference and counter-inference. We derive a semi-explicit optimal control solution for the blue team within a linear-quadratic setting and develop iterative and machine learning-based methods to characterize the red team's optimal response. Numerical experiments demonstrate how deception-driven strategies influence adversarial interactions and reveal the impact of leaked information in shaping equilibrium behaviors. These results provide new insights into strategic deception in multi-agent systems, with potential applications in cybersecurity, autonomous decision-making, and financial markets.

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arXiv2025

Integrating Sequential Hypothesis Testing into Adversarial Games: A Sun Zi-Inspired Framework

This paper investigates the interplay between sequential hypothesis testing (SHT) and adversarial decision-making in partially observable games, focusing on the deceptive strategies of red and blue teams. Inspired by Sun Zi's The Art of War and its emphasis on deception, we develop a novel framework to both deceive adversaries and counter their deceptive tactics. We model this interaction as a Stackelberg game where the blue team, as the follower, optimizes its controls to achieve its goals while misleading the red team into forming incorrect beliefs on its intentions. The red team, as the leader, strategically constructs and instills false beliefs through the blue team's envisioned SHT to manipulate the blue team's behavior and reveal its true objectives. The blue team's optimization problem balances the fulfillment of its primary objectives and the level of misdirection, while the red team coaxes the blue team into behaving consistently with its actual intentions. We derive a semi-explicit solution for the blue team's control problem within a linear-quadratic framework, and illustrate how the red team leverages leaked information from the blue team to counteract deception. Numerical experiments validate the model, showcasing the effectiveness of deception-driven strategies in adversarial systems. These findings integrate ancient strategic insights with modern control and game theory, providing a foundation for further exploration in adversarial decision-making, such as cybersecurity, autonomous systems, and financial markets.

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