arXiv subjects

Daniel Sheldon

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Sheldon.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Scalable Model-Assisted Multi-Target Estimation in Large Image Collections

Computer vision models are increasingly used as measurement tools to estimate population-level quantities from large image collections, but prediction errors introduce bias and the resulting estimates lack statistical guarantees required in scientific applications. Prior work uses a Monte Carlo framework to combine model predictions with ground-truth annotations by sampling some images for humans to label and is able to provide unbiased estimates with controllable accuracy, but primarily addresses single-scalar estimation. We study the more general problem of multi-target estimation, where many quantities (e.g., class counts or proportions) must be estimated simultaneously, and adapt sampling and estimation strategies from survey sampling to this setting. Evaluations on five detection and segmentation datasets with 7-80 classes show that importance sampling excels with moderate annotation budgets or fewer targets, whereas uniform sampling with control variates is superior when estimating many targets or operating with minimal labels. Additionally, a subset-based ratio estimator remains highly competitive across all regimes. Ultimately, our framework effectively combines biased model predictions and limited human labels into rigorous scientific measurements.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Private Adaptive Covariance Estimation via Gaussian Graphical Models

We propose PACE-GGM, a data-adaptive differentially private method for covariance estimation that concentrates its privacy budget on the most informative entries of the empirical covariance matrix, rather than perturbing all entries. This applies in the natural setting where the modeler supplies separate bounds for each variable, so that individual entries can be measured with less noise than the full matrix. In each round, our method selects a poorly approximated entry, measures it using the Gaussian mechanism, and then reconstructs a full covariance matrix using a maximum-entropy reconstruction objective, leading to a Gaussian graphical model structure. Experiments on diverse real-world datasets demonstrate consistent improvements in estimation error with respect to the Gaussian mechanism and other baselines, particularly in high-dimensional and low-to-moderate privacy regimes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Active Measurement of Two-Point Correlations

Two-point correlation functions (2PCF) are widely used to characterize how points cluster in space. In this work, we study the problem of measuring the 2PCF over a large set of points, restricted to a subset satisfying a property of interest. An example comes from astronomy, where scientists measure the 2PCF of star clusters, which make up only a tiny subset of possible sources within a galaxy. This task typically requires careful labeling of sources to construct catalogs, which is time-consuming. We present a human-in-the-loop framework for efficient estimation of 2PCF of target sources. By leveraging a pre-trained classifier to guide sampling, our approach adaptively selects the most informative points for human annotation. After each annotation, it produces unbiased estimates of pair counts across multiple distance bins simultaneously. Compared to simple Monte Carlo approaches, our method achieves substantially lower variance while significantly reducing annotation effort. We introduce a novel unbiased estimator, sampling strategy, and confidence interval construction that together enable scalable and statistically grounded measurement of two-point correlations in astronomy datasets.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Fast Private Adaptive Query Answering for Large Data Domains

Privately releasing marginals of a tabular dataset is a foundational problem in differential privacy. However, state-of-the-art mechanisms suffer from a computational bottleneck when marginal estimates are reconstructed from noisy measurements. Recently, residual queries were introduced and shown to lead to highly efficient reconstruction in the batch query answering setting. We introduce new techniques to integrate residual queries into state-of-the-art adaptive mechanisms such as AIM. Our contributions include a novel conceptual framework for residual queries using multi-dimensional arrays, lazy updating strategies, and adaptive optimization of the per-round privacy budget allocation. Together these contributions reduce error, improve speed, and simplify residual query operations. We integrate these innovations into a new mechanism (AIM+GReM), which improves AIM by using fast residual-based reconstruction instead of a graphical model approach. Our mechanism is orders of magnitude faster than the original framework and demonstrates competitive error and greatly improved scalability.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2025

Consensus-Driven Active Model Selection

The widespread availability of off-the-shelf machine learning models poses a challenge: which model, of the many available candidates, should be chosen for a given data analysis task? This question of model selection is traditionally answered by collecting and annotating a validation dataset -- a costly and time-intensive process. We propose a method for active model selection, using predictions from candidate models to prioritize the labeling of test data points that efficiently differentiate the best candidate. Our method, CODA, performs consensus-driven active model selection by modeling relationships between classifiers, categories, and data points within a probabilistic framework. The framework uses the consensus and disagreement between models in the candidate pool to guide the label acquisition process, and Bayesian inference to update beliefs about which model is best as more information is collected. We validate our approach by curating a collection of 26 benchmark tasks capturing a range of model selection scenarios. CODA outperforms existing methods for active model selection significantly, reducing the annotation effort required to discover the best model by upwards of 70% compared to the previous state-of-the-art. Code and data are available at https://github.com/justinkay/coda.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Active Measurement: Efficient Estimation at Scale

AI has the potential to transform scientific discovery by analyzing vast datasets with little human effort. However, current workflows often do not provide the accuracy or statistical guarantees that are needed. We introduce active measurement, a human-in-the-loop AI framework for scientific measurement. An AI model is used to predict measurements for individual units, which are then sampled for human labeling using importance sampling. With each new set of human labels, the AI model is improved and an unbiased Monte Carlo estimate of the total measurement is refined. Active measurement can provide precise estimates even with an imperfect AI model, and requires little human effort when the AI model is very accurate. We derive novel estimators, weighting schemes, and confidence intervals, and show that active measurement reduces estimation error compared to alternatives in several measurement tasks.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Inference of Marginalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models

Bayesian reasoning in linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) is challenging and often requires advanced sampling techniques like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A common approach is to write the model in a probabilistic programming language and then sample via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). However, there are many ways a user can transform a model that make inference more or less efficient. In particular, marginalizing some variables can greatly improve inference but is difficult for users to do manually. We develop an algorithm to easily marginalize random effects in LMMs. A naive approach introduces cubic time operations within an inference algorithm like HMC, but we reduce the running time to linear using fast linear algebra techniques. We show that marginalization is always beneficial when applicable and highlight improvements in various models, especially ones from cognitive sciences.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Efficient and Private Marginal Reconstruction with Local Non-Negativity

Differential privacy is the dominant standard for formal and quantifiable privacy and has been used in major deployments that impact millions of people. Many differentially private algorithms for query release and synthetic data contain steps that reconstruct answers to queries from answers to other queries that have been measured privately. Reconstruction is an important subproblem for such mechanisms to economize the privacy budget, minimize error on reconstructed answers, and allow for scalability to high-dimensional datasets. In this paper, we introduce a principled and efficient postprocessing method ReM (Residuals-to-Marginals) for reconstructing answers to marginal queries. Our method builds on recent work on efficient mechanisms for marginal query release, based on making measurements using a residual query basis that admits efficient pseudoinversion, which is an important primitive used in reconstruction. An extension GReM-LNN (Gaussian Residuals-to-Marginals with Local Non-negativity) reconstructs marginals under Gaussian noise satisfying consistency and non-negativity, which often reduces error on reconstructed answers. We demonstrate the utility of ReM and GReM-LNN by applying them to improve existing private query answering mechanisms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Private Regression via Data-Dependent Sufficient Statistic Perturbation

Sufficient statistic perturbation (SSP) is a widely used method for differentially private linear regression. SSP adopts a data-independent approach where privacy noise from a simple distribution is added to sufficient statistics. However, sufficient statistics can often be expressed as linear queries and better approximated by data-dependent mechanisms. In this paper we introduce data-dependent SSP for linear regression based on post-processing privately released marginals, and find that it outperforms state-of-the-art data-independent SSP. We extend this result to logistic regression by developing an approximate objective that can be expressed in terms of sufficient statistics, resulting in a novel and highly competitive SSP approach for logistic regression. We also make a connection to synthetic data for machine learning: for models with sufficient statistics, training on synthetic data corresponds to data-dependent SSP, with the overall utility determined by how well the mechanism answers these linear queries.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Joint Selection: Adaptively Incorporating Public Information for Private Synthetic Data

Mechanisms for generating differentially private synthetic data based on marginals and graphical models have been successful in a wide range of settings. However, one limitation of these methods is their inability to incorporate public data. Initializing a data generating model by pre-training on public data has shown to improve the quality of synthetic data, but this technique is not applicable when model structure is not determined a priori. We develop the mechanism jam-pgm, which expands the adaptive measurements framework to jointly select between measuring public data and private data. This technique allows for public data to be included in a graphical-model-based mechanism. We show that jam-pgm is able to outperform both publicly assisted and non publicly assisted synthetic data generation mechanisms even when the public data distribution is biased.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Human-in-the-Loop Visual Re-ID for Population Size Estimation

Computer vision-based re-identification (Re-ID) systems are increasingly being deployed for estimating population size in large image collections. However, the estimated size can be significantly inaccurate when the task is challenging or when deployed on data from new distributions. We propose a human-in-the-loop approach for estimating population size driven by a pairwise similarity derived from an off-the-shelf Re-ID system. Our approach, based on nested importance sampling, selects pairs of images for human vetting driven by the pairwise similarity, and produces asymptotically unbiased population size estimates with associated confidence intervals. We perform experiments on various animal Re-ID datasets and demonstrate that our method outperforms strong baselines and active clustering approaches. In many cases, we are able to reduce the error rates of the estimated size from around 80% using CV alone to less than 20% by vetting a fraction (often less than 0.002%) of the total pairs. The cost of vetting reduces with the increase in accuracy and provides a practical approach for population size estimation within a desired tolerance when deploying Re-ID systems.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

DISCount: Counting in Large Image Collections with Detector-Based Importance Sampling

Many modern applications use computer vision to detect and count objects in massive image collections. However, when the detection task is very difficult or in the presence of domain shifts, the counts may be inaccurate even with significant investments in training data and model development. We propose DISCount -- a detector-based importance sampling framework for counting in large image collections that integrates an imperfect detector with human-in-the-loop screening to produce unbiased estimates of counts. We propose techniques for solving counting problems over multiple spatial or temporal regions using a small number of screened samples and estimate confidence intervals. This enables end-users to stop screening when estimates are sufficiently accurate, which is often the goal in a scientific study. On the technical side we develop variance reduction techniques based on control variates and prove the (conditional) unbiasedness of the estimators. DISCount leads to a 9-12x reduction in the labeling costs over naive screening for tasks we consider, such as counting birds in radar imagery or estimating damaged buildings in satellite imagery, and also surpasses alternative covariate-based screening approaches in efficiency.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Kernel Interpolation with Sparse Grids

Structured kernel interpolation (SKI) accelerates Gaussian process (GP) inference by interpolating the kernel covariance function using a dense grid of inducing points, whose corresponding kernel matrix is highly structured and thus amenable to fast linear algebra. Unfortunately, SKI scales poorly in the dimension of the input points, since the dense grid size grows exponentially with the dimension. To mitigate this issue, we propose the use of sparse grids within the SKI framework. These grids enable accurate interpolation, but with a number of points growing more slowly with dimension. We contribute a novel nearly linear time matrix-vector multiplication algorithm for the sparse grid kernel matrix. Next, we describe how sparse grids can be combined with an efficient interpolation scheme based on simplices. With these changes, we demonstrate that SKI can be scaled to higher dimensions while maintaining accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Sample Average Approximation for Black-Box VI

We present a novel approach for black-box VI that bypasses the difficulties of stochastic gradient ascent, including the task of selecting step-sizes. Our approach involves using a sequence of sample average approximation (SAA) problems. SAA approximates the solution of stochastic optimization problems by transforming them into deterministic ones. We use quasi-Newton methods and line search to solve each deterministic optimization problem and present a heuristic policy to automate hyperparameter selection. Our experiments show that our method simplifies the VI problem and achieves faster performance than existing methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

U-Statistics for Importance-Weighted Variational Inference

We propose the use of U-statistics to reduce variance for gradient estimation in importance-weighted variational inference. The key observation is that, given a base gradient estimator that requires $m > 1$ samples and a total of $n > m$ samples to be used for estimation, lower variance is achieved by averaging the base estimator on overlapping batches of size $m$ than disjoint batches, as currently done. We use classical U-statistic theory to analyze the variance reduction, and propose novel approximations with theoretical guarantees to ensure computational efficiency. We find empirically that U-statistic variance reduction can lead to modest to significant improvements in inference performance on a range of models, with little computational cost.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Automatically Marginalized MCMC in Probabilistic Programming

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful algorithm to sample latent variables from Bayesian models. The advent of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) frees users from writing inference algorithms and lets users focus on modeling. However, many models are difficult for HMC to solve directly, and often require tricks like model reparameterization. We are motivated by the fact that many of those models could be simplified by marginalization. We propose to use automatic marginalization as part of the sampling process using HMC in a graphical model extracted from a PPL, which substantially improves sampling from real-world hierarchical models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

AIM: An Adaptive and Iterative Mechanism for Differentially Private Synthetic Data

We propose AIM, a new algorithm for differentially private synthetic data generation. AIM is a workload-adaptive algorithm within the paradigm of algorithms that first selects a set of queries, then privately measures those queries, and finally generates synthetic data from the noisy measurements. It uses a set of innovative features to iteratively select the most useful measurements, reflecting both their relevance to the workload and their value in approximating the input data. We also provide analytic expressions to bound per-query error with high probability which can be used to construct confidence intervals and inform users about the accuracy of generated data. We show empirically that AIM consistently outperforms a wide variety of existing mechanisms across a variety of experimental settings.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2021

Variational Marginal Particle Filters

Variational inference for state space models (SSMs) is known to be hard in general. Recent works focus on deriving variational objectives for SSMs from unbiased sequential Monte Carlo estimators. We reveal that the marginal particle filter is obtained from sequential Monte Carlo by applying Rao-Blackwellization operations, which sacrifices the trajectory information for reduced variance and differentiability. We propose the variational marginal particle filter (VMPF), which is a differentiable and reparameterizable variational filtering objective for SSMs based on an unbiased estimator. We find that VMPF with biased gradients gives tighter bounds than previous objectives, and the unbiased reparameterization gradients are sometimes beneficial.

stat.ML↗