arXiv subjects

Daniel Tamayo

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Tamayo.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Stability Constrained Characterization of the 23 Myr-old V1298 Tau System: Do Young Planets Form in Mean Motion Resonance Chains?

A leading theoretical expectation for the final stages of planet formation is that disk migration should naturally drive orbits into chains of mean motion resonances (MMRs). In order to explain the dearth of MMR chains observed at Gyr ages ($<1\%$), this picture requires such configurations to destabilize and scramble period ratios following disk dispersal. Strikingly, the only two known stars with three or more planets younger than $\lesssim 100$ Myrs, HR 8799 and V1298 Tau, have been suggested to be in such MMR chains, given the orbits' near-integer period ratios. We incorporate recent transit and radial velocity observations of the V1298 Tau system, and investigate constraints on the system's orbital architecture imposed by requiring dynamical stability on timescales much shorter than the system's age. We show that the recent radial-velocity mass measurement of V1298 Tau $b$ places it within a factor of two of the instability limit, and that this allows us to set significantly lower limits on the eccentricity ($e_b \leq 0.17$ at $99.7\%$ confidence). Additionally, we rule out a resonant chain configuration for V1298 Tau at $\gtrsim 99\%$ confidence. Thus, if the $\sim 23$ Myr-old V1298 Tau system did form as a resonant chain, it must have undergone instability and rearrangement shortly after disk dispersal. We expect that similar stability constrained characterization of future young multi-planet systems will be valuable in informing planet formation models.

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arXiv2022

Stellar Evolution and Tidal Dissipation in REBOUNDx

To study the post-main sequence evolution of the Solar system and exoplanetary systems more accurately and efficiently, we introduce two new features to REBOUNDx, an extended library for the N-body integrator REBOUND. The first is a convenient parameter interpolator for coupling different physics and integrators using numerical splitting schemes. The second implements a constant time lag model for tides without evolving spins. We demonstrate various uses of these features using stellar evolution data from MESA (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics) as an example. The results of our tests agree with several studies in the literature on post-main sequence orbital evolution, and our convergence and performance studies respectively demonstrate our implementations' accuracy and efficiency. These additional effects are publicly available as of REBOUNDx's latest release.

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arXiv2021

A Criterion for the Onset of Chaos in Compact, Eccentric Multiplanet Systems

We derive a semi-analytic criterion for the presence of chaos in compact, eccentric multiplanet systems. Beyond a minimum semimajor-axis separation, below which the dynamics are chaotic at all eccentricities, we show that (i) the onset of chaos is determined by the overlap of two-body mean motion resonances (MMRs), like it is in two-planet systems; (ii) secular evolution causes the MMR widths to expand and contract adiabatically, so that the chaotic boundary is established where MMRs overlap at their greatest width. For closely spaced two-planet systems, a near-symmetry strongly suppresses this secular modulation, explaining why the chaotic boundaries for two-planet systems are qualitatively different from cases with more than two planets. We use these results to derive an improved angular-momentum-deficit (AMD) stability criterion, i.e., the critical system AMD below which stability should be guaranteed. This introduces an additional factor to the expression from Laskar and Petit (2017) that is exponential in the interplanetary separations, which corrects the AMD threshold toward lower eccentricities by a factor of several for tightly packed configurations. We make routines for evaluating the chaotic boundary available to the community through the open-source SPOCK package.

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arXiv2021

TIC 454140642: A Compact, Coplanar, Quadruple-lined Quadruple Star System Consisting of Two Eclipsing Binaries

We report the discovery of a compact, coplanar, quadruply-lined, eclipsing quadruple star system from TESS data, TIC 454140642, also known as TYC 0074-01254-1. The target was first detected in Sector 5 with 30-min cadence in Full-Frame Images and then observed in Sector 32 with 2-min cadence. The light curve exhibits two sets of primary and secondary eclipses with periods of PA = 13.624 days (binary A) and PB = 10.393 days (binary B). Analysis of archival and follow-up data shows clear eclipse-timing variations and divergent radial velocities, indicating dynamical interactions between the two binaries and confirming that they form a gravitationally-bound quadruple system with a 2+2 hierarchy. The Aa+Ab binary, Ba+Bb binary, and A-B system are aligned with respect to each other within a fraction of a degree: the respective mutual orbital inclinations are 0.25 degrees (A vs B), 0.37 degrees (A vs A-B), and 0.47 degrees (B vs A-B). The A-B system has an orbital period of 432 days - the second shortest amongst confirmed quadruple systems - and an orbital eccentricity of 0.3.

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arXiv2021

How Close are Compact Multi-Planet Systems to the Stability Limit?

Transit surveys have revealed a significant population of compact multi-planet systems, containing several sub-Neptune-mass planets on close-in, tightly-packed orbits. These systems are thought to have formed through a final phase of giant impacts, which would tend to leave systems close to the edge of stability. Here, we assess this hypothesis, comparing observed eccentricities in systems exhibiting transit-timing variations (TTVs), with the maximum eccentricities compatible with long-term stability. We use the machine-learning classifier SPOCK (Tamayo et al. 2020) to rapidly classify the stability of numerous initial configurations and hence determine these stability limits. While previous studies have argued that multi-planet systems are often maximally packed, in the sense that they could not host any additional planets, we find that the existing planets in these systems have measured eccentricities below the limits allowed by stability by a factor of 2--10. We compare these results against predictions from the giant impact theory of planet formation, derived from both $N$-body integrations and theoretical expectations that in the absence of dissipation, the orbits of such planets should be distributed uniformly throughout the phase space volume allowed by stability. We find that the observed systems have systematically lower eccentricities than this scenario predicts, with a median eccentricity about 4 times lower than predicted. These findings suggest that if such systems formed through giant impacts, then some dissipation must occur to damp their eccentricities. This may take place during formation, perhaps through interactions with the natal gas disk or a leftover population of planetesimals, or over longer timescales through the coupling of tidal and secular processes.

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arXiv2021

A Bayesian neural network predicts the dissolution of compact planetary systems

Despite over three hundred years of effort, no solutions exist for predicting when a general planetary configuration will become unstable. We introduce a deep learning architecture to push forward this problem for compact systems. While current machine learning algorithms in this area rely on scientist-derived instability metrics, our new technique learns its own metrics from scratch, enabled by a novel internal structure inspired from dynamics theory. Our Bayesian neural network model can accurately predict not only if, but also when a compact planetary system with three or more planets will go unstable. Our model, trained directly from short N-body time series of raw orbital elements, is more than two orders of magnitude more accurate at predicting instability times than analytical estimators, while also reducing the bias of existing machine learning algorithms by nearly a factor of three. Despite being trained on compact resonant and near-resonant three-planet configurations, the model demonstrates robust generalization to both non-resonant and higher multiplicity configurations, in the latter case outperforming models fit to that specific set of integrations. The model computes instability estimates up to five orders of magnitude faster than a numerical integrator, and unlike previous efforts provides confidence intervals on its predictions. Our inference model is publicly available in the SPOCK package, with training code open-sourced.

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arXiv2020

Stability Constrained Characterization of Multiplanet Systems

Many discovered multiplanet systems are tightly packed. This implies that wide parameter ranges in masses and orbital elements can be dynamically unstable and ruled out. We present a case study of Kepler-23, a compact three-planet system where constraints from stability, transit timing variations (TTVs), and transit durations can be directly compared. We find that in this tightly packed system, stability can place upper limits on the masses and orbital eccentricities of the bodies that are comparable to or tighter than current state of the art methods. Specifically, stability places 68% upper limits on the orbital eccentricities of 0.09, 0.04, and 0.05 for planets $b$, $c$ and $d$, respectively. These constraints correspond to radial velocity signals $\lesssim 20$ cm/s, are significantly tighter to those from transit durations, and comparable to those from TTVs. Stability also yields 68% upper limits on the masses of planets $b$, $c$ and $d$ of 2.2, 16.1, and 5.8 $M_\oplus$, respectively, which were competitive with TTV constraints for the inner and outer planets. Performing this stability constrained characterization is computationally expensive with N-body integrations. We show that SPOCK, the Stability of Planetary Orbital Configurations Klassifier, is able to faithfully approximate the N-body results over 4000 times faster. We argue that such stability constrained characterization of compact systems is a challenging "needle-in-a-haystack" problem (requiring removal of 2500 unstable configurations for every stable one for our adopted priors) and we offer several practical recommendations for such stability analyses.

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arXiv2020

Revisiting the Architecture of the KOI-89 System

While high stellar obliquities observed in exoplanetary systems may be attributed to processes that tilt the planetary orbits, it is also possible that they reflect misalignments between protoplanetary disks and stellar spins. This latter hypothesis predicts the presence of co-planar multi-planetary systems misaligned with their central stars. Here we re-evaluate the evidence of such an architecture that has been claimed for the KOI-89 system. KOI-89 is an early-type star with one validated transiting planet KOI-89.01/Kepler-462b (period 84.7 days, radius $3.0\,R_\oplus$) and one transiting planet candidate KOI-89.02 (period 207.6 days, radius $4.0\,R_\oplus$), where the latter exhibits transit timing variations (TTVs). A previous modeling of the stellar gravity-darkening effect in the transit light curves inferred a high stellar obliquity of $\approx70^\circ$. We perform a photodynamical modeling of the Kepler transit light curves, and use the resulting constraints on the orbital configuration and transit times to update the gravity-darkened transit model. As a result, we find no firm evidence for gravity darkening effect in the transit shapes and conclude that stellar obliquity is not constrained by the data. Given evidence for low orbital eccentricities from the dynamical analysis, the system architecture can thus be consistent with many other multi-transiting systems with flat, near-circular orbits aligned with the stellar spin. We find that the TTVs imparted on its neighbor imply that KOI-89.01 has a mass $\gtrsim20\,M_\oplus$. This would render it one of the densest known sub-Neptunes, mostly composed of a solid core. Lower masses are possible if the TTVs are instead due to an unseen third planet.

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arXiv2020

Predicting the long-term stability of compact multiplanet systems

We combine analytical understanding of resonant dynamics in two-planet systems with machine learning techniques to train a model capable of robustly classifying stability in compact multi-planet systems over long timescales of $10^9$ orbits. Our Stability of Planetary Orbital Configurations Klassifier (SPOCK) predicts stability using physically motivated summary statistics measured in integrations of the first $10^4$ orbits, thus achieving speed-ups of up to $10^5$ over full simulations. This computationally opens up the stability constrained characterization of multi-planet systems. Our model, trained on $\approx 100,000$ three-planet systems sampled at discrete resonances, generalizes both to a sample spanning a continuous period-ratio range, as well as to a large five-planet sample with qualitatively different configurations to our training dataset. Our approach significantly outperforms previous methods based on systems' angular momentum deficit, chaos indicators, and parametrized fits to numerical integrations. We use SPOCK to constrain the free eccentricities between the inner and outer pairs of planets in the Kepler-431 system of three approximately Earth-sized planets to both be below 0.05. Our stability analysis provides significantly stronger eccentricity constraints than currently achievable through either radial velocity or transit duration measurements for small planets, and within a factor of a few of systems that exhibit transit timing variations (TTVs). Given that current exoplanet detection strategies now rarely allow for strong TTV constraints (Hadden et al., 2019), SPOCK enables a powerful complementary method for precisely characterizing compact multi-planet systems. We publicly release SPOCK for community use.

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arXiv2020

Direct Imaging of Irregular Satellite Disks in Scattered Light

Direct imaging surveys have found that long-period super-Jupiters are rare. By contrast, recent modeling of the widespread gaps in protoplanetary disks revealed by ALMA suggests an abundant population of smaller Neptune to Jupiter-mass planets at large separations. The thermal emission from such lower-mass planets is negligible at optical and near-infrared wavelengths, leaving only their weak signals in reflected light. Planets do not scatter enough light at these large orbital distances, but there is a natural way to enhance their reflecting area. Each of the four giant planets in our solar system hosts swarms of dozens of irregular satellites, gravitationally captured planetesimals that fill their host planets' spheres of gravitational influence. What we see of them today are the leftovers of an intense collisional evolution. At early times, they would have generated bright circumplanetary debris disks. We investigate the properties and detectability of such irregular satellite disks (ISDs) following models for their collisional evolution from Kennedy and Wyatt 2011. We find that ISD brightnesses peak in the $10-100$ AU range probed by ALMA, and can render planets detectable over a wide range of parameters with upcoming high-contrast instrumentation. We argue that future instruments with wide fields of view could simultaneously characterize the atmospheres of known close-in planets, and reveal the population of long-period $\sim$ Neptune-Jupiter mass exoplanets inaccessible to other detection methods. This provides a complementary and compelling science case that would elucidate the early lives of planetary systems.

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arXiv2020

Fundamental limits from chaos on instability time predictions in compact planetary systems

Instabilities in compact planetary systems are generically driven by chaotic dynamics. This implies that an instability time measured through direct N-body integration is not exact, but rather represents a single draw from a distribution of equally valid chaotic trajectories. In order to characterize the "errors" on reported instability times from direct N-body integrations, we investigate the shape and parameters of the instability time distributions (ITDs) for ensembles of shadow trajectories that are initially perturbed from one another near machine precision. We find that in the limit where instability times are long compared to the Lyapunov (chaotic) timescale, ITDs approach remarkably similar lognormal distributions with standard deviations ~0.43 $\pm$ 0.16 dex, despite the instability times varying across our sample from $10^4-10^8$ orbits. We find excellent agreement between these predictions, derived from ~450 closely packed configurations of three planets, and a much wider validation set of ~10,000 integrations, as well as on ~20,000 previously published integrations of tightly packed five-planet systems, and a seven-planet resonant chain based on TRAPPIST-1, despite their instability timescales extending beyond our analyzed timescale. We also test the boundary of applicability of our results on dynamically excited versions of our Solar System. These distributions define the fundamental limit imposed by chaos on the predictability of instability times in such planetary systems. It provides a quantitative estimate of the intrinsic error on an N-body instability time imprinted by chaos, approximately a factor of 3 in either direction.

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arXiv2019

Quotients of uniform positroids

Flag matroids are a rich family of Coxeter matroids that can be characterized using pairs of matroids that form a quotient. We consider a class of matroids called positroids, introduced by Postnikov, and utilize their combinatorial representations to explore characterizations of flag positroids. Given a uniform positroid, we give a purely combinatorial characterization of a family of positroids that form quotients with it. We state this in terms of their associated decorated permutations. In proving our characterization we also fully describe the circuits of this family.

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arXiv2019

On the accuracy of symplectic integrators for secularly evolving planetary systems

Symplectic integrators have made it possible to study the long-term evolution of planetary systems with direct N-body simulations. In this paper we reassess the accuracy of such simulations by running a convergence test on 20Myr integrations of the Solar System using various symplectic integrators. We find that the specific choice of metric for determining a simulation's accuracy is important. Only looking at metrics related to integrals of motions such as the energy error can overestimate the accuracy of a method. As one specific example, we show that symplectic correctors do not improve the accuracy of secular frequencies compared to the standard Wisdom-Holman method without symplectic correctors, despite the fact that the energy error is three orders of magnitudes smaller. We present a framework to trace the origin of this apparent paradox to one term in the shadow Hamiltonian. Specifically, we find a term that leads to negligible contributions to the energy error but introduces non-oscillatory errors that result in artificial periastron precession. This term is the dominant error when determining secular frequencies of the system. We show that higher order symplectic methods such as the Wisdom-Holman method with a modified kernel or the SABAC family of integrators perform significantly better in secularly evolving systems because they remove this specific term.

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arXiv2019

REBOUNDx: A Library for Adding Conservative and Dissipative Forces to Otherwise Symplectic N-body Integrations

Symplectic methods, in particular the Wisdom-Holman map, have revolutionized our ability to model the long-term, conservative dynamics of planetary systems. However, many astrophysically important effects are dissipative. The consequences of incorporating such forces into otherwise symplectic schemes is not always clear. We show that moving to a general framework of non-commutative operators (dissipative or not) clarifies many of these questions, and that several important properties of symplectic schemes carry over to the general case. In particular, we show that explicit splitting schemes generically exploit symmetries in the applied external forces which often strongly suppress integration errors. Furthermore, we demonstrate that so-called `symplectic correctors' (which reduce energy errors by orders of magnitude at fixed computational cost) apply equally well to weakly dissipative systems and can thus be more generally thought of as `weak splitting correctors.' Finally, we show that previously advocated approaches of incorporating additional forces into symplectic methods work well for dissipative forces, but give qualitatively wrong answers for conservative but velocity-dependent forces like post-Newtonian corrections. We release REBOUNDx, an open-source C library for incorporating additional effects into REBOUND N-body integrations, together with a convenient Python wrapper. All effects are machine-independent and we provide a binary format that interfaces with the SimulationArchive class in REBOUND to enable the sharing and reproducibility of results. Users can add effects from a list of pre-implemented astrophysical forces, or contribute new ones.

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arXiv2019

High order symplectic integrators for planetary dynamics and their implementation in REBOUND

Direct N-body simulations and symplectic integrators are effective tools to study the long-term evolution of planetary systems. The Wisdom-Holman (WH) integrator in particular has been used extensively in planetary dynamics as it allows for large timesteps at good accuracy. One can extend the WH method to achieve even higher accuracy using several different approaches. In this paper we survey integrators developed by Wisdom et al. (1996), Laskar & Robutel (2001, and Blanes et al. (2013). Since some of these methods are harder to implement and not as readily available to astronomers compared to the standard WH method, they are not used as often. This is somewhat unfortunate given that in typical simulations it is possible to improve the accuracy by up to six orders of magnitude (!) compared to the standard WH method without the need for any additional force evaluations. To change this, we implement a variety of high order symplectic methods in the freely available N-body integrator REBOUND. In this paper we catalogue these methods, discuss their differences, describe their error scalings, and benchmark their speed using our implementations.

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arXiv2019

The Chaotic Nature of TRAPPIST-1 Planetary Spin States

The TRAPPIST-1 system has 7 known terrestrial planets arranged compactly in a mean motion resonant chain around an ultra-cool central star, some within the estimated habitable zone. Given their short orbital periods of just a few days, it is often presumed that the planets are tidally locked such that the spin rate is equal to that of the orbital mean motion. However, the compact, and resonant, nature of the system implies that there can be significant variations in the mean motion of these planets due to their mutual interactions. We show that such fluctuations can then have significant effects on the spin states of these planets. In this paper, we analyze, using detailed numerical simulations, the mean motion histories of the three planets that are thought to lie within or close to the habitable zone of the system: planets d, e, and f. We demonstrate that, depending on the strength of the mutual interactions within the system, these planets can be pushed into spin states which are effectively non-synchronous. We find that it can produce significant libration of the spin state, if not complete circulation in the frame co-rotating with the orbit. We also show that these spin states are likely to be unable to sustain long-term stability, with many of our simulations suggesting that the spin evolves, under the influence of tidal synchronization forces, into quasi-stable attractor states, which last on timescales of thousands of years.

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arXiv2019

Hybrid Symplectic Integrators for Planetary Dynamics

Hybrid symplectic integrators such as MERCURY are widely used to simulate complex dynamical phenomena in planetary dynamics that could otherwise not be investigated. A hybrid integrator achieves high accuracy during close encounters by using a high order integration scheme for the duration of the encounter while otherwise using a standard 2nd order Wisdom-Holman scheme, thereby optimizing both speed and accuracy. In this paper we reassess the criteria for choosing the switching function that determines which parts of the Hamiltonian are integrated with the high order integrator. We show that the original motivation for choosing a polynomial switching function in MERCURY is not correct. We explain the nevertheless excellent performance of the MERCURY integrator and then explore a wide range of different switching functions including an infinitely differentiable function and a Heaviside function. We find that using a Heaviside function leads to a significantly simpler scheme compared to MERCURY, while maintaining the same accuracy in short term simulations.

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arXiv2018

Lunar Crater Identification via Deep Learning

Crater counting on the Moon and other bodies is crucial to constrain the dynamical history of the Solar System. This has traditionally been done by visual inspection of images, thus limiting the scope, efficiency, and/or accuracy of retrieval. In this paper we demonstrate the viability of using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to determine the positions and sizes of craters from Lunar digital elevation maps (DEMs). We recover 92% of craters from the human-generated test set and almost double the total number of crater detections. Of these new craters, 15% are smaller in diameter than the minimum crater size in the ground-truth dataset. Our median fractional longitude, latitude and radius errors are 11% or less, representing good agreement with the human-generated datasets. From a manual inspection of 361 new craters we estimate the false positive rate of new craters to be 11%. Moreover, our Moon-trained CNN performs well when tested on DEM images of Mercury, detecting a large fraction of craters in each map. Our results suggest that deep learning will be a useful tool for rapidly and automatically extracting craters on various Solar System bodies. We make our code and data publicly available at https://github.com/silburt/DeepMoon.git and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1133969 .

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