arXiv subjects

Daniel Toneian

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Toneian.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Delta-Epsilon-Common Knowledge and Quantitative Agreement Theorems

Aumann defined common knowledge mathematically and established his now famous Agreement Theorem. We present a novel approach to quantifying how close individuals are to commonly knowing events, $(\delta,\epsilon)$-common knowledge, which is defined for any (and not just countable) probability spaces, and provide quantitative versions of the key results in this field. Specifically, we do this for Aumann's Agreement Theorem and Nielsen's extension thereof to random variables, as well as for the setting in which posteriors are communicated back and forth between individuals. Our results apply in particular to noisy communication settings.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2023

On Strassen's Theorem for support functions

Strassen established that there exists a two step martingale with marginal distributions $\mu$, $\nu$ if and only if $\mu$, $\nu$ are in convex order. Recently Chon\'e-Gozlan-Kramarz obtained a transport characterization of the stochastic order defined by convex positively 1-homogeneous functions, in the spirit of Strassen's theorem under certain technical assumptions. In this note we prove the Chon\'e-Gozlan-Kramarz result in full generality. We also observe that the restriction of the result to the case where $\mu, \nu$ are supported on a half space is equivalent to Strassen's classical theorem.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Robust models of SARS-CoV-2 heterogeneity and control

In light of the continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines, we create a simulation framework for exploring possible infection trajectories under various scenarios. The situations of primary interest involve the interaction between three components: vaccination campaigns, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. Additionally, immunity waning and vaccine boosters are modeled to account for their growing importance. New infections are generated according to a hierarchical model in which people have a random, individual infectiousness. The model thus includes super-spreading observed in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our simulation functions as a dynamic compartment model in which an individual's history of infection, vaccination, and possible reinfection all play a role in their resistance to further infections. We present a risk measure for each SARS-CoV-2 variant, $ρ^\V$, that accounts for the amount of resistance within a population and show how this risk changes as the vaccination rate increases. Furthermore, by considering different population compositions in terms of previous infection and type of vaccination, we can learn about variants which pose differential risk to different countries. Different control strategies are implemented which aim to both suppress COVID-19 outbreaks when they occur as well as relax restrictions when possible. We demonstrate that a controller that responds to the effective reproduction number in addition to case numbers is more efficient and effective in controlling new waves than monitoring case numbers alone. This is of interest as the majority of the public discussion and well-known statistics deal primarily with case numbers.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Disease Momentum: Estimating the Reproduction Number in the Presence of Superspreading

A primary quantity of interest in the study of infectious diseases is the average number of new infections that an infected person produces. This so-called reproduction number has significant implications for the disease progression. There has been increasing literature suggesting that superspreading, the significant variability in number of new infections caused by individuals, plays an important role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In this paper, we consider the effect that such superspreading has on the estimation of the reproduction number and subsequent estimates of future cases. Accordingly, we employ a simple extension to models currently used in the literature to estimate the reproduction number and present a case-study of the progression of COVID-19 in Austria. Our models demonstrate that the estimation uncertainty of the reproduction number increases with superspreading and that this improves the performance of prediction intervals. Of independent interest is the derivation of a transparent formula that connects the extent of superspreading to the width of credible intervals for the reproduction number. This serves as a valuable heuristic for understanding the uncertainty surrounding diseases with superspreading.

q-bio.PE↗