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Daniel W. Heck

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel W. Heck.

6 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2019

Multinomial Models with Linear Inequality Constraints: Overview and Improvements of Computational Methods for Bayesian Inference

Many psychological theories can be operationalized as linear inequality constraints on the parameters of multinomial distributions (e.g., discrete choice analysis). These constraints can be described in two equivalent ways: Either as the solution set to a system of linear inequalities or as the convex hull of a set of extremal points (vertices). For both representations, we describe a general Gibbs sampler for drawing posterior samples in order to carry out Bayesian analyses. We also summarize alternative sampling methods for estimating Bayes factors for these model representations using the encompassing Bayes factor method. We introduce the R package multinomineq, which provides an easily-accessible interface to a computationally efficient implementation of these techniques.

stat.CO↗
arXiv2018

Model selection by minimum description length: Lower-bound sample sizes for the Fisher information approximation

The Fisher information approximation (FIA) is an implementation of the minimum description length principle for model selection. Unlike information criteria such as AIC or BIC, it has the advantage of taking the functional form of a model into account. Unfortunately, FIA can be misleading in finite samples, resulting in an inversion of the correct rank order of complexity terms for competing models in the worst case. As a remedy, we propose a lower-bound $N'$ for the sample size that suffices to preclude such errors. We illustrate the approach using three examples from the family of multinomial processing tree models.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2018

Quantifying Uncertainty in Transdimensional Markov Chain Monte Carlo Using Discrete Markov Models

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) relies on sampling a discrete indexing variable to estimate the posterior model probabilities. However, little attention has been paid to the precision of these estimates. If only few switches occur between the models in the transdimensional MCMC output, precision may be low and assessment based on the assumption of independent samples misleading. Here, we propose a new method to estimate the precision based on the observed transition matrix of the model-indexing variable. Assuming a first order Markov model, the method samples from the posterior of the stationary distribution. This allows assessment of the uncertainty in the estimated posterior model probabilities, model ranks, and Bayes factors. Moreover, the method provides an estimate for the effective sample size of the MCMC output. In two model-selection examples, we show that the proposed approach provides a good assessment of the uncertainty associated with the estimated posterior model probabilities.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2017

On the relation between the (censored) shifted Wald and the Wiener distribution as measurement models for choice response times

Inferring processes or constructs from performance data is a major hallmark of cognitive psychometrics. Particularly, diffusion modeling of response times (RTs) from correct and erroneous responses using the Wiener distribution has become a popular measurement tool because it provides a set of psychologically interpretable parameters. However, an important precondition to identify all of these parameters is a sufficient number of RTs from erroneous responses. In the present article, we show by simulation that the parameters of the Wiener distribution can be recovered from tasks yielding very high or even perfect response accuracies using the shifted Wald distribution. Specifically, we argue that error RTs can be modeled as correct RTs that have undergone censoring by using techniques from parametric survival analysis. We illustrate our reasoning by fitting the Wiener and (censored) shifted Wald distribution to RTs from six participants who completed a Go/No-go task. In accordance with our simulations, diffusion modeling using the Wiener and the shifted Wald distribution yielded identical parameter estimates when the number of erroneous responses was predicted to be low. Moreover, the modeling of error RTs as censored correct RTs substantially improved the recovery of these diffusion parameters when premature trial timeout was introduced to increase the number of omission errors. Thus, the censored shifted Wald distribution provides a suitable means for diffusion modeling in situations when the Wiener distribution cannot be fitted without parametric constraints.

q-bio.NC↗
arXiv2016

Adjusted Priors for Bayes Factors Involving Reparameterized Order Constraints

Many psychological theories that are instantiated as statistical models imply order constraints on the model parameters. To fit and test such restrictions, order constraints of the form $θ_i \leq θ_j$ can be reparameterized with auxiliary parameters $η\in [0,1]$ to replace the original parameters by $θ_i = η\cdotθ_j$. This approach is especially common in multinomial processing tree (MPT) modeling because the reparameterized, less complex model also belongs to the MPT class. Here, we discuss the importance of adjusting the prior distributions for the auxiliary parameters of a reparameterized model. This adjustment is important for computing the Bayes factor, a model selection criterion that measures the evidence in favor of an order constraint by trading off model fit and complexity. We show that uniform priors for the auxiliary parameters result in a Bayes factor that differs from the one that is obtained using a multivariate uniform prior on the order-constrained original parameters. As a remedy, we derive the adjusted priors for the auxiliary parameters of the reparameterized model. The practical relevance of the problem is underscored with a concrete example using the multi-trial pair-clustering model.

stat.ME↗