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Daniele Spinoso

Publications and source records attributed to Daniele Spinoso.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

The LISA Astrophysics MBHcatalogues Project: A comparison of predictions of simulated massive black hole binaries

In the hierarchical paradigm of galaxy formation, central massive black holes (MBHs) are expected to coalesce after the merger of their host galaxies. One of the main goals of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is to constrain the origin and growth of MBHs through their merger rates and mass distribution. Predicting MBH merger rates requires not only tracing their statistical population from large to small physical scales (kpc to sub-pc) but also modelling their formation, accretion, dynamics, mergers, and their galactic physical processes across cosmic time. This project is the result of a large collaborative effort undertaken by the LISA Astrophysics Working Group, bringing together its collective expertise on MBH formation, evolution, and modelling, to build a comprehensive understanding of MBH merger rates across cosmic time. The project compares various theoretical predictions of MBH merger rates, quantifies the spread, and evaluates the global astrophysical uncertainties of the LISA event rates. To build a unique and complete view, our work is based on about 20 semi-analytical models and cosmological simulations from the literature, all employing distinct approaches to modelling MBH and galaxy physics. To compute the merger rates, we also incorporate delays arising from the dynamical phase of MBH hardening to coalescence. We present the expected LISA merger rates given current galaxy formation models and discuss how the merger rate depends on model assumptions, such as the seeding model and the resolution of cosmological simulations.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

Archival Multiband Gravitational-Wave Signals from Massive Black Hole Binary Mergers

While massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) merge at gravitational-wave frequencies above the pulsar timing array (PTA) sensitivity band, we show that they leave orphaned low-frequency contributions in the PTA pulsar term. Due to the light-propagation time between each pulsar in the array and Earth, the pulsar term acts as a time-delayed probe of a chirping merger with a specific frequency response determined by the direction of origin and intrinsic properties of the MBHB. We provide a detailed consideration of how such a multiband signal would manifest in a full PTA, demonstrate an approach to stack these orphaned pulsar terms across the array, and discuss prospects for an archival, multiband search in conjunction with MBHB mergers observed in astrometric data or spaceborne interferometers like LISA.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Disentangling the galactic and intergalactic components in 313 observed Lyman-alpha line profiles between redshift 0 and 5

Lyman-Alpha (Lya) photons emitted in star-forming galaxies undergo complex radiative transfer through the interstellar (ISM), circumgalactic (CGM), and intergalactic medium (IGM), imprinting characteristic signatures on their observed line profiles. We use the open-source package zELDA (redshift Estimator for Line profiles of Distant Lyman-Alpha emitters) to disentangle the galactic and intergalactic contributions in 313 Lya spectra observed with HST/COS and MUSE, spanning 0 3$ the IGM significantly suppresses the blue peak of Lya. After correcting for IGM effects, the stacked intrinsic galactic Lya line profiles display remarkably little evolution from $z=0$ to $z=6$. We measure the mean IGM Lya escape fraction, finding $ > 90\%$ for z<0.5, decreasing from $\sim0.85$ at $z=3$ to $\sim0.55$ at $z=5$. Our measurement of the redshift evolution of the Lya IGM escape fraction agrees with independent constraints on the IGM mean optical depth. After a comparison between our $ $ estimation and the global Lya escape fraction from the literature, our findings indicate that the IGM might dominate Lya observability at redshift z$\gtrsim$5.0, after which ISM and CGM effects tend to dominate at lower $z$. Our results demonstrate that zELDA enables robust reconstruction of intrinsic Lya spectra and provides a direct probe of the interplay between galactic outflows and IGM transmission across cosmic time.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

Massive Star Clusters in the Semi-Analytical Galaxy Formation Model L-Galaxies 2020

It is established that there exists a direct link between the formation history of star cluster populations and their host galaxies. However, our lack of understanding of the assembly of star cluster populations impede our ability to use them as tracers of galaxy evolution. In this work we introduce a new variation of the L-Galaxies 2020 semi-analytic galaxy formation model that includes the formation of star clusters above 10^4 MSun and probes different physical assumptions that affect their evolution over cosmic time. We use properties of different galaxy components and localised star formation to determine the bound fraction of star formation in disks. After randomly sampling masses from an environmentally-dependent star cluster initial mass function, we assign to each object a half-mass radius, metallicity, and distance from the galaxy centre. We consider up to 2000 individual star clusters per galaxy and evolve their properties over time taking into account stellar evolution, two-body relaxation, tidal shocks, dynamical friction, and a re-positioning during galaxy mergers. Our simulation successfully reproduces several observational quantities, such as the empirical relationship between the absolute V-band magnitude of the brightest young star clusters and the host galaxy star formation rate, the mass function of young star clusters, and mean metallicities of the star cluster distributions versus galaxy masses. The simulation reveals great complexity in the z=0 star cluster population resulting from differential destruction channels and origins, including in-situ populations in the disk, a major merger-induced heated component in the halo, and accreted star clusters. Model variations point out the importance of the shape of the star cluster initial mass function, the initial distribution of half-mass radii, or the relationship between the sound speed of cold gas and the SFR.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

Back to basics: Little Red Dots as galaxies and dust-obscured AGNs in a synthetic NIRCam sky simulated with L-GalaxiesBH

The enigmatic Little Red Dots (LRDs) discovered by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) exhibit properties challenging their interpretation as common galaxies or Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). Understanding their nature is key to placing them within our picture of early galaxy and massive black hole (MBH) evolution. To this aim, we build a realistic comparison between LRD observations with photometric properties of galaxies and AGN simulated by the L-GalaxiesBH model in a NIRCam mock sky. We model stellar continua and emission lines, the MBH emission from accretion disk, infrared radiation from dusty torus, and lines from narrow and broad line regions, accounting for dust attenuation and obscuration. Using realistic photometric cuts, we select a population of LRDs including both AGN and galaxies. The LRD fraction peaks at 40% ($\sim10^{-4}\rm Mpc^{-3}$) at $z\sim4$. Our LRDs are central galaxies spanning $M_*=10^8-10^{10.5}\rm M_\odot$. A population of galaxies with $M_*<10^9\rm M_\odot$ appear as LRDs due to older stellar populations. At higher masses, LRDs dominate the halo and stellar mass functions ($M_{\rm vir} > 10^{11.5}\rm M_\odot$, $M_* > 10^{9.5}\rm M_\odot$), and the interplay between AGN and galaxy emission drives the LRD selection. AGN dominate rest-frame UV-optical emission, while dust obscuration is secondary. LRDs host lighter MBHs ($\sim 10^{6.5}\rm M_\odot$) than non-LRDs ($\sim 10^{7.5}\rm M_\odot$), with fainter emission unable to balance their hosts Balmer breaks. We find no evidence for dominant heavy-seed origin of MBHs. LRD Galaxies (97% hosting MBHs) and LRD AGNs are disk-dominated, with LRD AGNs showing larger bulges formed mainly via disk instabilities.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

Bright siren without electromagnetic counterpart by LISA-Taiji-TianQin network

Gravitational waves (GWs) with electromagnetic counterparts (EMc) offer a novel approach to measure the Hubble constant ($H_0$), known as bright sirens, enabling $H_0$ measurements by combining GW-derived distances with EM-derived redshifts. Host galaxy identification is essential for redshift determination but remains challenging due to poor GW sky localization and uncertainties in EMc models. To overcome these limitations, we exploit the ultra-high-precision localization ($ΔΩ_s \sim 10^{-4} \, \text{deg}^2$) with a space-based GW detector network (LISA-Taiji-TianQin), which permits unique host identification solely from GW signals. We integrate five massive black hole binary (MBHB) population models and two galaxy number density models to compute the redshift horizon for host galaxy identification and evaluate $H_0$ constraints. We find that (1) The network enhances localization by several orders of magnitude compared to single detectors; (2) The identification horizon reaches $z\sim 1.2$ for specific MBHBs in the most accurate localization case; (3) The population model choice critically impacts the outcomes: the most refined population models yield to independent EMc identification rate of 0.6-1 $\text{yr}^{-1}$ with $H_0$ constraints $< 1\%$ fractional uncertainty, the less refined models lead to the rate $<0.1\text{yr}^{-1}$ and $1-2\%$ uncertainty on $H_0$.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

Constraints on the early growth of massive black holes from PTA and JWST with L-GalaxiesBH

Recent Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) results provided strong evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background (sGWB), consistent with a population of merging massive black holes (MBHs) at $z<1$. Meanwhile, JWST observations at $z>5$ suggest a higher number density of accreting MBHs than previously estimated. Together with constraints from local MBHs and high-$z$ quasars, these findings offer a unique opportunity to test MBH seeding and early growth models. We explore this using ${\tt L-Galaxies}\textit{BH}$, a new extension of the galaxy formation model ${\tt L-Galaxies}$, developed to explicitly model all stages of MBH evolution, including seeding, accretion, and binary dynamics. To take advantage of both the high resolution of the ${\tt MillenniumII}$ and the large volume of the ${\tt Millennium}$ simulations, we run ${\tt L-Galaxies}\textit{BH}$ on the former and use its outputs as initial conditions for the latter, via our $\textit{grafting}$ method. We find that reproducing the number density of high-$z$ active MBHs observed by JWST requires either a heavy seed formation rate significantly higher than that predicted by current models ($\gtrsim 0.01 Mpc^{-3}$ at $z \sim 10$), or widespread formation of light seeds undergoing multiple phases of super-Eddington accretion. Furthermore, matching the amplitude of the PTA sGWB signal requires nearly all galaxies with stellar masses $M_{*}> 10^9 M_\odot$ to host central MBHs by $z\sim0$. Given the extreme heavy seed densities required to satisfy both PTA and JWST constraints, our results favor a scenario in which MBHs originate from light seeds that grow rapidly and efficiently in the early universe. This work demonstrates the power of combining multi-messenger data with physical models to probe the origins and evolution of MBHs across cosmic time.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

Off-center black hole seed formation? Implications for high and low redshift massive black holes

Recent studies show that light seeds of black holes, which grow into massive black holes (MBHs) over time, often struggle to remain at the centers of their birthplaces in high-redshift galaxies, limiting their ability to accrete gas and merge with other black holes. In this work, we investigate how off-center formation of the first seeds affects the evolution of the MBH and massive black hole binary (MBHB) populations over cosmic history. To this end, we use the $\texttt{L-Galaxies}{\it BH}$ semi-analytical model, which includes multiple seed formation mechanisms, with light Population III remnants being the most significant contributors. To incorporate off-center formation, we modify the model to track the initial seed location, the sinking timescales toward the galactic center, and any growth during this phase. The results indicate that seed formation occurring away from the galactic center has a negligible impact on the MBH population at $z<1$, but causes significant differences at higher redshifts. Particularly, the abundance of $10^5 M_{\odot}$ MBHs at $z>4$ can be up to 2-10 times smaller compared to a nuclear seed formation model. Quasar luminosity functions with $\rm L_{bol}>10^{44} \rm erg/s$ are similarly affected, although they still align with observational constraints. The off-centre formation also alters the galaxy-MBH mass relation. At $z>5$, the amplitude of the relation can be up to 2 dex smaller than in nuclear seed models. These differences fade by $z \sim 2$ for galaxies $>10^{11} M_{\odot}$, and by $z=0$ for smaller galaxies. Notably, the overmassive MBH population recently unveiled by JWST is still present in the model, suggesting they can form independently of the seed dynamics. Finally, the merging rate of MBHs within LISA sensitivity band is strongly impacted. Specifically, there is a suppression of events at high-$z$ and an enhancement at low-$z$.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

Identifying massive black hole binaries via light curve variability in optical time-domain surveys

Accreting massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) often display periodic variations in their emitted radiation, providing a distinctive signature for their identification. In this work, we explore the MBHBs identification via optical variability studies by simulating the observations of the LSST survey. To this end, we generate a population of MBHBs using the L-Galaxies semi-analytical model, focusing on systems with observed orbital periods $\leq$ 5 years. This ensures that at least two complete cycles of emission can be observed within the 10-year mission of LSST. To construct mock optical light curves, we first calculate the MBHB average magnitudes in each LSST filter by constructing a self-consistent SED that accounts for the binary accretion history and the emission from a circumbinary disc and mini-discs. We then add variability modulations by using six 3D hydrodynamic simulations of accreting MBHBs with different eccentricities and mass ratios as templates. To make the light curves realistic, we mimic the LSST observation patterns and cadence, and we include stochastic variability and LSST photometric errors. Our results show from $10^{-2}$ to $10^{-1}$ MBHBs per square degree, with light curves that are potentially detectable by LSST. These systems are mainly low-redshift ($z\lesssim1.5$), massive ($\gtrsim10^{7}\, M_{\odot}$), equal-mass (${\sim} 0.8$), relatively eccentric (${\sim}0.6$), and with modulation periods of around $3.5$ years. Using periodogram analysis, we find that LSST variability studies have a higher success rate ($>$50%) for systems with high eccentricities ($e>$0.6). Additionally, at fixed eccentricity, detections tend to favour systems with more unequal mass ratios. The false alarm probability shows similar trends. Circular binaries systematically feature high values ($\gtrsim 10^{-1}$). Eccentric systems have low-FAP tails, down to $\sim10^{-8}$.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Lighting up the nano-hertz gravitational wave sky: opportunities and challenges of multimessenger astronomy with PTA experiments

Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments have the potential to unveil continuous gravitational wave (CGW) signals from individual massive black hole binaries (MBHBs). Detecting them in both gravitational waves (GW) and the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum will open a new chapter in multimessenger astronomy. We investigate the feasibility of conducting multimessenger studies by combining the CGW detections from an idealized 30-year SKA PTA and the optical data from the forthcoming LSST survey. To this end, we employed the $\texttt{L-Galaxies}$ semi-analytical model applied to the $\texttt{Millennium}$ simulation. We generated 200 different all-sky lightcones that include galaxies, massive black holes, and MBHBs whose emission is modeled based on their star formation histories and gas accretion physics. We predict an average of $\approx 33$ CGW detections, with signal-to-noise ratios $ S/N > 5$. The detected MBHBs are typically at $z < 0.5$, with masses of $ \sim 3 \times 10^{9} M_{\odot}$, mass ratios $> 0.6$ and eccentricities $\lesssim 0.2$. In terms of EM counterparts, we find less than 15% of these systems to be connected with an AGN detectable by LSST, while their host galaxies are easily detectable ($ < 23$ mag) massive ($ M_{\star} > 10^{11} M_{\odot}$) ellipticals with typical star formation rates ($10^{-15} yr^{-1} < sSRF < 10^{-10} yr^{-1}$). Although the CGW-EM counterpart association is complicated by poor sky localization (only 35% of these CGWs are localized within $\rm 100\, deg^2$), the number of galaxy host candidates can be considerably reduced (thousands to tens) by applying priors based on the galaxy-MBH correlations. However, picking the actual host among these candidates is highly non-trivial, as they occupy a similar region in any optical color-color diagram. Our findings highlight the considerable challenges entailed in opening the low-frequency multimessenger GW sky.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2025

High-definition imaging of a filamentary connection between a close quasar pair at z=3

Filaments connecting halos are a long-standing prediction of cold dark matter theories. We present a detection of the cosmic web emission connecting two quasar-host galaxies at redshift z ~3.22 in the MUSE Ultra Deep Field (MUDF). The very deep observations unlock a high-definition view of the filament morphology, a measure of the transition radius between the intergalactic and circumgalactic medium, and the characterization of the surface brightness profiles along the filament and in the transverse direction. Through systematic comparisons with simulations, we validate the filaments' typical density predicted in the current cold dark-matter model. Our analysis of the MUDF field, an excellent laboratory for quantitatively studying filaments in emission, opens a new avenue to constrain the physical properties of the cosmic web and to trace the distribution of dark matter on large scales.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

Probing the cosmic web in Ly$α$ emission over large scales: an Intensity Mapping forecast for DECaLS/BASS and DESI

Being the most prominent HI line, Ly$α$ permeates the cosmic web in emission. Despite its potential as a cosmological probe, its detection on large scales remains elusive. We present a new methodology to perform Ly$α$ intensity mapping with broad-band optical images, by cross-correlating them with Ly$α$ forest data using a custom one-parameter estimator. We also develop an analytical large-scale Ly$α$ emission model with two parameters (average luminosity $\langle L_{\rm Lyα} \rangle$ and bias $b_{\rm e}$) that respects observational constraints from QSO luminosity functions. We compute a forecast for DECaLS/BASS $g$-band images cross-correlated with DESI Ly$α$ forest data, setting guidelines for reducing images into Ly$α$ intensity maps. Given the transversal scales of our cross-correlation (26.4 arcmin, $\sim$33 cMpc/h), our study effectively integrates Ly$α$ emission over all the cosmic volume inside the DESI footprint at $2.2 < z < 3.4$ (the $g$-band Ly$α$ redshift range). Over the parameter space ($\langle L_{\rm Lyα} \rangle$, $b_{\rm e}$) sampled by our forecast, we find a 3$σ$ of large-scale structure in Ly$α$ likely, with a probability of detection of 23.95\% for DESI-DECaLS/BASS, and 54.93\% for a hypothetical DESI phase II with twice as much Ly$α$ QSOs. Without a detection, we derive upper bounds on $\langle L_{\rm Lyα} \rangle$ competitive with optimistic literature estimates ($2.3 \pm 1 \cdot 10^{\rm 41}$ erg/s/cMpc$^3$ for DESI, and $\sim$35\% lower for its hypothetical phase II). Extrapolation to the DESI-Rubin overlap shows that a detection of large-scale structure with Ly$α$ intensity mapping using next-generation imaging surveys is certain. [abridged]

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2025

zELDA II: reconstruction of galactic Lyman-alpha spectra attenuated by the intergalactic medium using neural networks

The observed Lyman-Alpha (Lya) line profile is a convolution of the complex Lya radiative transfer taking place in the interstellar, circumgalactic and intergalactic medium (ISM, CGM, and IGM, respectively). Discerning the different components of the Lya line is crucial in order to use it as a probe of galaxy formation or the evolution of the IGM. We present the second version of zELDA (redshift Estimator for Line profiles of Distant Lyman-Alpha emitters), an open-source Python module focused on modeling and fitting observed Lya line profiles. This new version of zELDA focuses on disentangling the galactic from the IGM effects. We build realistic Lya line profiles that include the ISM and IGM contributions, by combining the Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations for the so called "shell model" (ISM) and IGM transmission curves generated from IllustrisTNG100. We use these mock line profiles to train different artificial neural networks. These use as input the observed spectrum and output the outflow parameters of the best fitting "shell model" along with the redshift and Lya emission IGM escape fraction of the source. We measure the accuracy of zELDA on mock Lya line profiles. We find that zELDA is capable of reconstructing the ISM emerging Lya line profile with high accuracy (Kolmogorov-Smirnov<0.1) for 95% of the cases for HST COS-like observations and 80% for MUSE-WIDE-like. zELDA is able to measure the IGM transmission with the typical uncertainties below 10% for HST-COS and MUSE-WIDE data. This work represents a step forward in the high-precision reconstruction of IGM attenuated Lya line profiles. zELDA allows the disentanglement of the galactic and IGM contribution shaping the Lya line shape, and thus allows us to use Lya as a tool to study galaxy and ISM evolution.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2024

A link to the past: characterizing wandering black holes in Milky Way-type galaxies

A population of non-stellar black holes ($\gtrsim$100 M$_{\odot}$) has been long predicted to wander the Milky Way. We aim to characterize this population by using the L-Galaxies semi-analytical model applied on top of the high resolution Millennium-II merger trees. Our results predict $\sim$10 wandering black holes with masses $\sim$2 $\times$ 10$^{3}$ M$_{\odot}$ in a typical $z$ = 0 Milky Way galaxy, accounting for $\sim$2$\%$ of the total non-stellar black hole mass budget of the galaxy. We find that the locations of these wanderers correlate with their formation scenario. While the ones concentrated at $\lesssim$1 kpc from the galactic nucleus on the disk come from past galactic mergers, the ones formed as a consequence of ejections due to gravitational recoils or the disruption of satellite galaxies are typically located at $\gtrsim$100 kpc. Such small and large distances might explain the absence of strong observational evidence for wandering black holes in the Milky Way. Our results also indicate that $\sim$67$\%$ of the wandering population is conformed by the leftovers of black hole seeds that had little to no growth since their formation. We find that wandering black holes that are leftover seeds become wanderers at an earlier time with respect to grown seeds, and also come from more metal-poor galaxies. Finally, we show that the number of wandering black holes in a Milky Way-type galaxy depends on the seeding efficiency.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2024

The PAU Survey: The quasar UV and Ly$α$ luminosity functions at $2.7<z<5.3$

We present the Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) and ultraviolet (UV) luminosity function (LF), in bins of redshift, of quasars selected in the Physics of the Accelerating Universe Survey (PAUS). A sample of 915 objects was selected at $2.7 10^{44}$ ${\rm erg\,s}$$^{-1}$. In order to obtain corrections for the LF estimation, and assess the accuracy of our selection method, we produced mock catalogs of $0<z<4.3$ quasars and galaxies that mimic our target population and their main contaminants. Our results show a clear evolution of the Ly$α$ and UV LFs, with a declining tendency in the number density of quasars towards increasing redshifts. In addition, the faint-end power-law slope of the Ly$α$ LF becomes steeper with redshift, suggesting that the number density of Ly$α$-bright quasars declines faster than that of fainter emitters. By integrating the Ly$α$ LF we find that the total Ly$α$ emitted by bright quasars per unit volume rapidly declines with increasing redshift, being sub-dominant to that of star-forming galaxies by several orders of magnitude by $z\sim 4$. Finally, we stack the NB pseudo-spectra of a visually selected "golden sample" of 591 quasars to obtain photometric composite SEDs in bins of redshift, enabling to measure the mean IGM absorption by the Lyman-$α$ forest as a function of redshift.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2024

Unveiling Luminous Ly$α$ Emitters at $z\approx6$ through JWST/NIRCam Imaging in the COSMOS Field

We study a sample of 14 spectroscopically confirmed Ly$α$ Emitters (LAEs) in the late era of reionization (at redshift $z\approx6$) based on the JWST/NIRCam imaging dataset. These LAEs with high Ly$α$ luminosity of $L$(Ly$α$) $\sim10^{42.4-43.4}$ erg s$^{-1}$ have been covered by the (ongoing) COSMOS-Web survey (Kartaltepe et al. 2021; Casey et al. 2022) over $0.28$ deg$^2$ in four NIRCam bands (F115W, F150W, F277W, and F444W). With JWST imaging, we determine the UV continua with $M_{\rm UV}$ ranging from ${-}20.5$ to ${-}18.5$ mag. The UV slopes have a median value of $β\approx-2.35$, and the steepest slope can reach $β<-3$. Under an excellent spatial resolution of JWST, we identify three out of the sample as potential merging/interacting systems. The 14 LAEs (and their components) are compact in morphology residing substantially below the mass-size relation of high-$z$ galaxies. We further investigate the stellar mass ($M_*$) and star-formation rates (SFRs). Most of the LAEs lie on the SFR-$M_*$ main-sequence relation while two of them featured as "little red dots" likely host active galactic nuclei (AGN), implying a ${\sim}10\%$ AGN fraction. Moreover, we reveal that a new correlation may exist between Ly$α$ equivalent width and the offset between Ly$α$ and UV emission ($Δd_{\rm Lyα}$) with a median $Δd_{\rm Lyα} \sim 1$ kpc. This could be explained by Ly$α$ radiative transfer process in both ISM and CGM. The results usher a new era of detailed analysis on high-$z$ LAEs with the JWST capability.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2024

Connecting low-redshift LISA massive black hole mergers to the nHz stochastic gravitational wave background

Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments worldwide recently reported evidence of a nHz stochastic gravitational wave background (sGWB) compatible with the existence of slowly inspiralling massive black hole (MBH) binaries (MBHBs). The shape of the signal contains valuable information about the evolution of $z<1$ MBHs above $\rm 10^8 M_{\odot}$, suggesting a faster dynamical evolution of MBHBs towards the gravitational-wave-driven inspiral or a larger MBH growth than usually assumed. In this work, we investigate if the nHz sGWB could also provide constraints on the population of merging lower-mass MBHBs ($\rm {<} 10^7 \, M_{\odot}$) detectable by LISA. To this end, we use the $\texttt{L-Galaxies}$ semi-analytical model applied to the $\texttt{Millennium}$ suite of simulations. We generate a population of MBHs compatible simultaneously with current electromagnetic and nHz sGWB constraints by including the possibility that, in favourable environments, MBHs can accrete gas beyond the Eddington limit. The predictions of the model show that the global (integrated up to high-$z$) LISA detection rate is {\it not} significantly affected when compared to a fiducial model whose nHz sGWB signal is ${\sim}\,2$ times smaller. In both cases, the global rate yields ${\sim}\,12 \rm yr^{-1}$ and is dominated by systems of $\rm 10^{5-6} M_{\odot}$. The main differences are limited to low-$z$ ($z<3$), high-mass (${>}\rm 10^6\, M_{\odot}$) LISA MBHBs. The model compatible with the latest PTA results predicts up to ${\sim}\,1.6$ times more detections, with a rate of ${\sim}1\rm yr^{-1}$. We find that these LISA MBHB systems have 50\% probability of shining with bolometric luminosities $>10^{43}\rm erg/s$. Hence, in case PTA results are confirmed and given the current MBH modelling, our findings suggest there will be higher chances to perform multimessenger studies with LISA MBHB than previously expected.

astro-ph.GA↗