Dario Draca | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Inversion-Free Natural Gradient Descent on Riemannian Manifolds

The natural gradient method is a central tool for statistical optimisation, but its broader application is hindered by the assumption of a Euclidean parameter space, the repeated estimation of the Fisher information matrix (FIM), and the computational cost of its subsequent inversion. This paper proposes an intrinsic, inversion-free natural gradient method for statistical models whose parameters lie on general Riemannian manifolds. Formulating statistical optimisation in this non-Euclidean setting allows for the natural enforcement of parameter constraints, the elimination of non-identifiable parameters, and the exploitation of geodesic convexity. Our algorithm is based on a moving approximation of the inverse FIM, which is maintained directly on the manifold. This approximation is efficiently updated with new score vectors using low-rank matrix identities. We prove almost-sure convergence rates of $O(\log s / s^α)$ for the sequence of iterates, and a similar rate for the approximate FIM. A limited-memory variant with sub-quadratic storage complexity is further proposed for large-scale applications. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on variational Bayes within the Bures-Wasserstein manifold, normalising flows on the Stiefel manifold, and reduced-rank logistic regression.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Covariate Dependent Mixture of Bayesian Networks

Learning the structure of Bayesian networks from data provides insights into underlying processes and the causal relationships that generate the data, but its usefulness depends on the homogeneity of the data population, a condition often violated in real-world applications. In such cases, using a single network structure for inference can be misleading, as it may not capture sub-population differences. To address this, we propose a novel approach of modelling a mixture of Bayesian networks where component probabilities depend on individual characteristics. Our method identifies both network structures and demographic predictors of sub-population membership, aiding personalised interventions. We evaluate our method through simulations and a youth mental health case study, demonstrating its potential to improve tailored interventions in health, education, and social policy.

stat.ML↗