arXiv subjects

David Arbour

Publications and source records attributed to David Arbour.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Learning Relational Causal Models with Cycles through Relational Acyclification

In real-world phenomena which involve mutual influence or causal effects between interconnected units, equilibrium states are typically represented with cycles in graphical models. An expressive class of graphical models, relational causal models, can represent and reason about complex dynamic systems exhibiting such cycles or feedback loops. Existing cyclic causal discovery algorithms for learning causal models from observational data assume that the data instances are independent and identically distributed which makes them unsuitable for relational causal models. At the same time, causal discovery algorithms for relational causal models assume acyclicity. In this work, we examine the necessary and sufficient conditions under which a constraint-based relational causal discovery algorithm is sound and complete for cyclic relational causal models. We introduce relational acyclification, an operation specifically designed for relational models that enables reasoning about the identifiability of cyclic relational causal models. We show that under the assumptions of relational acyclification and $σ$-faithfulness, the relational causal discovery algorithm RCD (Maier et al. 2013) is sound and complete for cyclic models. We present experimental results to support our claim.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Anytime-Valid Confidence Sequences in an Enterprise A/B Testing Platform

A/B tests are the gold standard for evaluating digital experiences on the web. However, traditional "fixed-horizon" statistical methods are often incompatible with the needs of modern industry practitioners as they do not permit continuous monitoring of experiments. Frequent evaluation of fixed-horizon tests ("peeking") leads to inflated type-I error and can result in erroneous conclusions. We have released an experimentation service on the Adobe Experience Platform based on anytime-valid confidence sequences, allowing for continuous monitoring of the A/B test and data-dependent stopping. We demonstrate how we adapted and deployed asymptotic confidence sequences in a full featured A/B testing platform, describe how sample size calculations can be performed, and how alternate test statistics like "lift" can be analyzed. On both simulated data and thousands of real experiments, we show the desirable properties of using anytime-valid methods instead of traditional approaches.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Off-Policy Evaluation in Embedded Spaces

Off-policy evaluation methods are important in recommendation systems and search engines, where data collected under an existing logging policy is used to estimate the performance of a new proposed policy. A common approach to this problem is weighting, where data is weighted by a density ratio between the probability of actions given contexts in the target and logged policies. In practice, two issues often arise. First, many problems have very large action spaces and we may not observe rewards for most actions, and so in finite samples we may encounter a positivity violation. Second, many recommendation systems are not probabilistic and so having access to logging and target policy densities may not be feasible. To address these issues, we introduce the featurized embedded permutation weighting estimator. The estimator computes the density ratio in an action embedding space, which reduces the possibility of positivity violations. The density ratio is computed leveraging recent advances in normalizing flows and density ratio estimation as a classification problem, in order to obtain estimates which are feasible in practice.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Sample Constrained Treatment Effect Estimation

Treatment effect estimation is a fundamental problem in causal inference. We focus on designing efficient randomized controlled trials, to accurately estimate the effect of some treatment on a population of $n$ individuals. In particular, we study sample-constrained treatment effect estimation, where we must select a subset of $s \ll n$ individuals from the population to experiment on. This subset must be further partitioned into treatment and control groups. Algorithms for partitioning the entire population into treatment and control groups, or for choosing a single representative subset, have been well-studied. The key challenge in our setting is jointly choosing a representative subset and a partition for that set. We focus on both individual and average treatment effect estimation, under a linear effects model. We give provably efficient experimental designs and corresponding estimators, by identifying connections to discrepancy minimization and leverage-score-based sampling used in randomized numerical linear algebra. Our theoretical results obtain a smooth transition to known guarantees when $s$ equals the population size. We also empirically demonstrate the performance of our algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Non-Parametric Inference of Relational Dependence

Independence testing plays a central role in statistical and causal inference from observational data. Standard independence tests assume that the data samples are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) but that assumption is violated in many real-world datasets and applications centered on relational systems. This work examines the problem of estimating independence in data drawn from relational systems by defining sufficient representations for the sets of observations influencing individual instances. Specifically, we define marginal and conditional independence tests for relational data by considering the kernel mean embedding as a flexible aggregation function for relational variables. We propose a consistent, non-parametric, scalable kernel test to operationalize the relational independence test for non-i.i.d. observational data under a set of structural assumptions. We empirically evaluate our proposed method on a variety of synthetic and semi-synthetic networks and demonstrate its effectiveness compared to state-of-the-art kernel-based independence tests.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Estimating the effects of a California gun control program with Multitask Gaussian Processes

Gun violence is a critical public safety concern in the United States. In 2006 California implemented a unique firearm monitoring program, the Armed and Prohibited Persons System (APPS), to address gun violence in the state. The APPS program first identifies those firearm owners who become prohibited from owning one due to federal or state law, then confiscates their firearms. Our goal is to assess the effect of APPS on California murder rates using annual, state-level crime data across the US for the years before and after the introduction of the program. To do so, we adapt a non-parametric Bayesian approach, multitask Gaussian Processes (MTGPs), to the panel data setting. MTGPs allow for flexible and parsimonious panel data models that nest many existing approaches and allow for direct control over both dependence across time and dependence across units, as well as natural uncertainty quantification. We extend this approach to incorporate non-Normal outcomes, auxiliary covariates, and multiple outcome series, which are all important in our application. We also show that this approach has attractive Frequentist properties, including a representation as a weighting estimator with separate weights over units and time periods. Applying this approach, we find that the increased monitoring and enforcement from the APPS program substantially decreased homicides in California. We also find that the effect on murder is driven entirely by declines in gun-related murder with no measurable effect on non-gun murder. Estimated cost per murder avoided are substantially lower than conventional estimates of the value of a statistical life, suggesting a very high benefit-cost ratio for this enforcement effort.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Offline Evaluation of Ranked Lists using Parametric Estimation of Propensities

Search engines and recommendation systems attempt to continually improve the quality of the experience they afford to their users. Refining the ranker that produces the lists displayed in response to user requests is an important component of this process. A common practice is for the service providers to make changes (e.g. new ranking features, different ranking models) and A/B test them on a fraction of their users to establish the value of the change. An alternative approach estimates the effectiveness of the proposed changes offline, utilising previously collected clickthrough data on the old ranker to posit what the user behaviour on ranked lists produced by the new ranker would have been. A majority of offline evaluation approaches invoke the well studied inverse propensity weighting to adjust for biases inherent in logged data. In this paper, we propose the use of parametric estimates for these propensities. Specifically, by leveraging well known learning-to-rank methods as subroutines, we show how accurate offline evaluation can be achieved when the new rankings to be evaluated differ from the logged ones.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2022

Bayesian Modeling of Marketing Attribution

In a multi-channel marketing world, the purchase decision journey encounters many interactions (e.g., email, mobile notifications, display advertising, social media, and so on). These impressions have direct (main effects), as well as interactive influence on the final decision of the customer. To maximize conversions, a marketer needs to understand how each of these marketing efforts individually and collectively affect the customer's final decision. This insight will help her optimize the advertising budget over interacting marketing channels. This problem of interpreting the influence of various marketing channels to the customer's decision process is called marketing attribution. We propose a Bayesian model of marketing attribution that captures established modes of action of advertisements, including the direct effect of the ad, decay of the ad effect, interaction between ads, and customer heterogeneity. Our model allows us to incorporate information from customer's features and provides usable error bounds for parameters of interest, like the ad effect or the half-life of an ad. We apply our model on a real-world dataset and evaluate its performance against alternatives in simulations.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Adjusting for Confounders with Text: Challenges and an Empirical Evaluation Framework for Causal Inference

Causal inference studies using textual social media data can provide actionable insights on human behavior. Making accurate causal inferences with text requires controlling for confounding which could otherwise impart bias. Recently, many different methods for adjusting for confounders have been proposed, and we show that these existing methods disagree with one another on two datasets inspired by previous social media studies. Evaluating causal methods is challenging, as ground truth counterfactuals are almost never available. Presently, no empirical evaluation framework for causal methods using text exists, and as such, practitioners must select their methods without guidance. We contribute the first such framework, which consists of five tasks drawn from real world studies. Our framework enables the evaluation of any casual inference method using text. Across 648 experiments and two datasets, we evaluate every commonly used causal inference method and identify their strengths and weaknesses to inform social media researchers seeking to use such methods, and guide future improvements. We make all tasks, data, and models public to inform applications and encourage additional research.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

Relational Causal Models with Cycles:Representation and Reasoning

Causal reasoning in relational domains is fundamental to studying real-world social phenomena in which individual units can influence each other's traits and behavior. Dynamics between interconnected units can be represented as an instantiation of a relational causal model; however, causal reasoning over such instantiation requires additional templating assumptions that capture feedback loops of influence. Previous research has developed lifted representations to address the relational nature of such dynamics but has strictly required that the representation has no cycles. To facilitate cycles in relational representation and learning, we introduce relational $σ$-separation, a new criterion for understanding relational systems with feedback loops. We also introduce a new lifted representation, $σ$-abstract ground graph which helps with abstracting statistical independence relations in all possible instantiations of the cyclic relational model. We show the necessary and sufficient conditions for the completeness of $σ$-AGG and that relational $σ$-separation is sound and complete in the presence of one or more cycles with arbitrary length. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on representation of and reasoning with cyclic relational causal models.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Online Balanced Experimental Design

e consider the experimental design problem in an online environment, an important practical task for reducing the variance of estimates in randomized experiments which allows for greater precision, and in turn, improved decision making. In this work, we present algorithms that build on recent advances in online discrepancy minimization which accommodate both arbitrary treatment probabilities and multiple treatments. The proposed algorithms are computational efficient, minimize covariate imbalance, and include randomization which enables robustness to misspecification. We provide worst case bounds on the expected mean squared error of the causal estimate and show that the proposed estimator is no worse than an implicit ridge regression, which are within a logarithmic factor of the best known results for offline experimental design. We conclude with a detailed simulation study showing favorable results relative to complete randomization as well as to offline methods for experimental design with time complexities exceeding our algorithm.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Constraint Sampling Reinforcement Learning: Incorporating Expertise For Faster Learning

Online reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are often difficult to deploy in complex human-facing applications as they may learn slowly and have poor early performance. To address this, we introduce a practical algorithm for incorporating human insight to speed learning. Our algorithm, Constraint Sampling Reinforcement Learning (CSRL), incorporates prior domain knowledge as constraints/restrictions on the RL policy. It takes in multiple potential policy constraints to maintain robustness to misspecification of individual constraints while leveraging helpful ones to learn quickly. Given a base RL learning algorithm (ex. UCRL, DQN, Rainbow) we propose an upper confidence with elimination scheme that leverages the relationship between the constraints, and their observed performance, to adaptively switch among them. We instantiate our algorithm with DQN-type algorithms and UCRL as base algorithms, and evaluate our algorithm in four environments, including three simulators based on real data: recommendations, educational activity sequencing, and HIV treatment sequencing. In all cases, CSRL learns a good policy faster than baselines.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

Designing Transportable Experiments

We consider the problem of designing a randomized experiment on a source population to estimate the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) on a target population. We propose a novel approach which explicitly considers the target when designing the experiment on the source. Under the covariate shift assumption, we design an unbiased importance-weighted estimator for the target population's ATE. To reduce the variance of our estimator, we design a covariate balance condition (Target Balance) between the treatment and control groups based on the target population. We show that Target Balance achieves a higher variance reduction asymptotically than methods that do not consider the target population during the design phase. Our experiments illustrate that Target Balance reduces the variance even for small sample sizes.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Online Discrepancy Minimization via Persistent Self-Balancing Walks

We study the online discrepancy minimization problem for vectors in $\mathbb{R}^d$ in the oblivious setting where an adversary is allowed fix the vectors $x_1, x_2, \ldots, x_n$ in arbitrary order ahead of time. We give an algorithm that maintains $O(\sqrt{\log(nd/δ)})$ discrepancy with probability $1-δ$, matching the lower bound given in [Bansal et al. 2020] up to an $O(\sqrt{\log \log n})$ factor in the high-probability regime. We also provide results for the weighted and multi-color versions of the problem.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2020

Heterogeneous Graphlets

In this paper, we introduce a generalization of graphlets to heterogeneous networks called typed graphlets. Informally, typed graphlets are small typed induced subgraphs. Typed graphlets generalize graphlets to rich heterogeneous networks as they explicitly capture the higher-order typed connectivity patterns in such networks. To address this problem, we describe a general framework for counting the occurrences of such typed graphlets. The proposed algorithms leverage a number of combinatorial relationships for different typed graphlets. For each edge, we count a few typed graphlets, and with these counts along with the combinatorial relationships, we obtain the exact counts of the other typed graphlets in o(1) constant time. Notably, the worst-case time complexity of the proposed approach matches the time complexity of the best known untyped algorithm. In addition, the approach lends itself to an efficient lock-free and asynchronous parallel implementation. While there are no existing methods for typed graphlets, there has been some work that focused on computing a different and much simpler notion called colored graphlet. The experiments confirm that our proposed approach is orders of magnitude faster and more space-efficient than methods for computing the simpler notion of colored graphlet. Unlike these methods that take hours on small networks, the proposed approach takes only seconds on large networks with millions of edges. Notably, since typed graphlet is more general than colored graphlet (and untyped graphlets), the counts of various typed graphlets can be combined to obtain the counts of the much simpler notion of colored graphlets. The proposed methods give rise to new opportunities and applications for typed graphlets.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Efficient Balanced Treatment Assignments for Experimentation

In this work, we reframe the problem of balanced treatment assignment as optimization of a two-sample test between test and control units. Using this lens we provide an assignment algorithm that is optimal with respect to the minimum spanning tree test of Friedman and Rafsky (1979). This assignment to treatment groups may be performed exactly in polynomial time. We provide a probabilistic interpretation of this process in terms of the most probable element of designs drawn from a determinantal point process which admits a probabilistic interpretation of the design. We provide a novel formulation of estimation as transductive inference and show how the tree structures used in design can also be used in an adjustment estimator. We conclude with a simulation study demonstrating the improved efficacy of our method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Permutation Weighting

In observational causal inference, in order to emulate a randomized experiment, weights are used to render treatments independent of observed covariates. This property is known as balance; in its absence, estimated causal effects may be arbitrarily biased. In this work we introduce permutation weighting, a method for estimating balancing weights using a standard binary classifier (regardless of cardinality of treatment). A large class of probabilistic classifiers may be used in this method; the choice of loss for the classifier implies the particular definition of balance. We bound bias and variance in terms of the excess risk of the classifier, show that these disappear asymptotically, and demonstrate that our classification problem directly minimizes imbalance. A wide variety of existing balancing weights may be estimated through this regime, allowing for direct comparison between methods based on classifier loss, as well as hyper-parameter tuning using cross-validation. Empirical evaluations indicate that permutation weighting provides favorable performance in comparison to existing methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

General Identification of Dynamic Treatment Regimes Under Interference

In many applied fields, researchers are often interested in tailoring treatments to unit-level characteristics in order to optimize an outcome of interest. Methods for identifying and estimating treatment policies are the subject of the dynamic treatment regime literature. Separately, in many settings the assumption that data are independent and identically distributed does not hold due to inter-subject dependence. The phenomenon where a subject's outcome is dependent on his neighbor's exposure is known as interference. These areas intersect in myriad real-world settings. In this paper we consider the problem of identifying optimal treatment policies in the presence of interference. Using a general representation of interference, via Lauritzen-Wermuth-Freydenburg chain graphs (Lauritzen and Richardson, 2002), we formalize a variety of policy interventions under interference and extend existing identification theory (Tian, 2008; Sherman and Shpitser, 2018). Finally, we illustrate the efficacy of policy maximization under interference in a simulation study.

stat.ME↗