arXiv subjects

David C. Parkes

Publications and source records attributed to David C. Parkes.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

The AI Economist: Improving Equality and Productivity with AI-Driven Tax Policies

Tackling real-world socio-economic challenges requires designing and testing economic policies. However, this is hard in practice, due to a lack of appropriate (micro-level) economic data and limited opportunity to experiment. In this work, we train social planners that discover tax policies in dynamic economies that can effectively trade-off economic equality and productivity. We propose a two-level deep reinforcement learning approach to learn dynamic tax policies, based on economic simulations in which both agents and a government learn and adapt. Our data-driven approach does not make use of economic modeling assumptions, and learns from observational data alone. We make four main contributions. First, we present an economic simulation environment that features competitive pressures and market dynamics. We validate the simulation by showing that baseline tax systems perform in a way that is consistent with economic theory, including in regard to learned agent behaviors and specializations. Second, we show that AI-driven tax policies improve the trade-off between equality and productivity by 16% over baseline policies, including the prominent Saez tax framework. Third, we showcase several emergent features: AI-driven tax policies are qualitatively different from baselines, setting a higher top tax rate and higher net subsidies for low incomes. Moreover, AI-driven tax policies perform strongly in the face of emergent tax-gaming strategies learned by AI agents. Lastly, AI-driven tax policies are also effective when used in experiments with human participants. In experiments conducted on MTurk, an AI tax policy provides an equality-productivity trade-off that is similar to that provided by the Saez framework along with higher inverse-income weighted social welfare.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Selfish Behavior in the Tezos Proof-of-Stake Protocol

Proof-of-Stake consensus protocols give rise to complex modeling challenges. We analyze the recently-updated Tezos Proof-of-Stake protocol and demonstrate that, under certain conditions, rational participants are incentivized to behave dishonestly. In doing so, we provide a theoretical analysis of the feasibility and profitability of a block stealing attack that we call selfish endorsing, a concrete instance of an attack previously only theoretically considered. We propose and analyze a simple change to the Tezos protocol which significantly reduces the (already small) profitability of this dishonest behavior, and introduce a new delay and reward scheme that is provably secure against length-1 and length-2 selfish endorsing attacks. Our framework provides a template for analyzing other Proof-of-Stake implementations for selfish behavior.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2020

Double-Spend Counterattacks: Threat of Retaliation in Proof-of-Work Systems

Proof-of-Work mining is intended to provide blockchains with robustness against double-spend attacks. However, an economic analysis that follows from Budish (2018), which considers free entry conditions together with the ability to rent sufficient hashrate to conduct an attack, suggests that the resulting block rewards can make an attack cheap. We formalize a defense to double-spend attacks. We show that when the victim can counterattack in the same way as the attacker, this leads to a variation on the classic game-theoretic War of Attrition model. The threat of this kind of counterattack induces a subgame perfect equilibrium in which no attack occurs in the first place.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2020

A Kernel of Truth: Determining Rumor Veracity on Twitter by Diffusion Pattern Alone

Recent work in the domain of misinformation detection has leveraged rich signals in the text and user identities associated with content on social media. But text can be strategically manipulated and accounts reopened under different aliases, suggesting that these approaches are inherently brittle. In this work, we investigate an alternative modality that is naturally robust: the pattern in which information propagates. Can the veracity of an unverified rumor spreading online be discerned solely on the basis of its pattern of diffusion through the social network? Using graph kernels to extract complex topological information from Twitter cascade structures, we train accurate predictive models that are blind to language, user identities, and time, demonstrating for the first time that such "sanitized" diffusion patterns are highly informative of veracity. Our results indicate that, with proper aggregation, the collective sharing pattern of the crowd may reveal powerful signals of rumor truth or falsehood, even in the early stages of propagation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Algorithmic and Economic Perspectives on Fairness

Algorithmic systems have been used to inform consequential decisions for at least a century. Recidivism prediction dates back to the 1920s. Automated credit scoring dates began in the middle of the last century, but the last decade has witnessed an acceleration in the adoption of prediction algorithms. They are deployed to screen job applicants for the recommendation of products, people, and content, as well as in medicine (diagnostics and decision aids), criminal justice, facial recognition, lending and insurance, and the allocation of public services. The prominence of algorithmic methods has led to concerns regarding their systematic unfairness in their treatment of those whose behavior they are predicting. These concerns have found their way into the popular imagination through news accounts and general interest books. Even when these algorithms are deployed in domains subject to regulation, it appears that existing regulation is poorly equipped to deal with this issue. The word 'fairness' in this context is a placeholder for three related equity concerns. First, such algorithms may systematically discriminate against individuals with a common ethnicity, religion, or gender, irrespective of whether the relevant group enjoys legal protections. The second is that these algorithms fail to treat people as individuals. Third, who gets to decide how algorithms are designed and deployed. These concerns are present when humans, unaided, make predictions.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Ridesharing with Driver Location Preferences

We study revenue-optimal pricing and driver compensation in ridesharing platforms when drivers have heterogeneous preferences over locations. If a platform ignores drivers' location preferences, it may make inefficient trip dispatches; moreover, drivers may strategize so as to route towards their preferred locations. In a model with stationary and continuous demand and supply, we present a mechanism that incentivizes drivers to both (i) report their location preferences truthfully and (ii) always provide service. In settings with unconstrained driver supply or symmetric demand patterns, our mechanism achieves (full-information) first-best revenue. Under supply constraints and unbalanced demand, we show via simulation that our mechanism improves over existing mechanisms and has performance close to the first-best.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2019

Learning to Collaborate in Markov Decision Processes

We consider a two-agent MDP framework where agents repeatedly solve a task in a collaborative setting. We study the problem of designing a learning algorithm for the first agent (A1) that facilitates a successful collaboration even in cases when the second agent (A2) is adapting its policy in an unknown way. The key challenge in our setting is that the first agent faces non-stationarity in rewards and transitions because of the adaptive behavior of the second agent. We design novel online learning algorithms for agent A1 whose regret decays as $O(T^{\max\{1-\frac{3}{7} \cdot α, \frac{1}{4}\}})$ with $T$ learning episodes provided that the magnitude of agent A2's policy changes between any two consecutive episodes are upper bounded by $O(T^{-α})$. Here, the parameter $α$ is assumed to be strictly greater than $0$, and we show that this assumption is necessary provided that the learning parity with noise problem is computationally hard. We show that sub-linear regret of agent A1 further implies near-optimality of the agents' joint return for MDPs that manifest the properties of a smooth game.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Finding Friend and Foe in Multi-Agent Games

Recent breakthroughs in AI for multi-agent games like Go, Poker, and Dota, have seen great strides in recent years. Yet none of these games address the real-life challenge of cooperation in the presence of unknown and uncertain teammates. This challenge is a key game mechanism in hidden role games. Here we develop the DeepRole algorithm, a multi-agent reinforcement learning agent that we test on The Resistance: Avalon, the most popular hidden role game. DeepRole combines counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) with deep value networks trained through self-play. Our algorithm integrates deductive reasoning into vector-form CFR to reason about joint beliefs and deduce partially observable actions. We augment deep value networks with constraints that yield interpretable representations of win probabilities. These innovations enable DeepRole to scale to the full Avalon game. Empirical game-theoretic methods show that DeepRole outperforms other hand-crafted and learned agents in five-player Avalon. DeepRole played with and against human players on the web in hybrid human-agent teams. We find that DeepRole outperforms human players as both a cooperator and a competitor.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

The Capacity Constrained Facility Location problem

We initiate the study of the capacity constrained facility location problem from a mechanism design perspective. The capacity constrained setting leads to a new strategic environment where a facility serves a subset of the population, which is endogenously determined by the ex-post Nash equilibrium of an induced subgame and is not directly controlled by the mechanism designer. Our focus is on mechanisms that are ex-post dominant-strategy incentive compatible (DIC) at the reporting stage. We provide a complete characterization of DIC mechanisms via the family of Generalized Median Mechanisms (GMMs). In general, the social welfare optimal mechanism is not DIC. Adopting the worst-case approximation measure, we attain tight lower bounds on the approximation ratio of any DIC mechanism. The well-known median mechanism is shown to be optimal among the family of DIC mechanisms for certain capacity ranges. Surprisingly, the framework we introduce provides a new characterization for the family of GMMs, and is responsive to gaps in the current social choice literature highlighted by Border and Jordan (1983) and Barbar{à}, Mass{ó} and Serizawa (1998).

cs.GT↗

arXiv2019

Artificial Intelligence for Social Good

The Computing Community Consortium (CCC), along with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), and the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), co-sponsored a public workshop on Artificial Intelligence for Social Good on June 7th, 2016 in Washington, DC. This was one of five workshops that OSTP co-sponsored and held around the country to spur public dialogue on artificial intelligence, machine learning, and to identify challenges and opportunities related to AI. In the AI for Social Good workshop, the successful deployments and the potential use of AI in various topics that are essential for social good were discussed, including but not limited to urban computing, health, environmental sustainability, and public welfare. This report highlights each of these as well as a number of crosscutting issues.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2018

Contingent Payment Mechanisms for Resource Utilization

We introduce the problem of assigning resources to improve their utilization. The motivation comes from settings where agents have uncertainty about their own values for using a resource, and where it is in the interest of a group that resources be used and not wasted. Done in the right way, improved utilization maximizes social welfare--- balancing the utility of a high value but unreliable agent with the group's preference that resources be used. We introduce the family of contingent payment mechanisms (CP), which may charge an agent contingent on use (a penalty). A CP mechanism is parameterized by a maximum penalty, and has a dominant-strategy equilibrium. Under a set of axiomatic properties, we establish welfare-optimality for the special case CP(W), with CP instantiated for a maximum penalty equal to societal value W for utilization. CP(W) is not dominated for expected welfare by any other mechanism, and second, amongst mechanisms that always allocate the resource and have a simple indirect structure, CP(W) strictly dominates every other mechanism. The special case with no upper bound on penalty, the contingent second-price mechanism, maximizes utilization. We extend the mechanisms to assign multiple, heterogeneous resources, and present a simulation study of the welfare properties of these mechanisms.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2018

Non-Truthful Position Auctions Are More Robust to Misspecification

In the standard single-dimensional model of position auctions, bidders agree on the relative values of the positions and each of them submits a single bid that is interpreted in terms of these values. Motivated by current practice in sponsored search we consider a situation where the auctioneer uses estimates of the relative values, which may be imprecise, and show that under both complete and incomplete information a non-truthful mechanism is able to support an efficient outcome in equilibrium for a wider range of these estimates than the VCG mechanism. We thus exhibit a property of the VCG mechanism that may help explain the surprising rarity with which it is used even in settings with unit demand, a relative lack of robustness to misspecification of the bidding language. The result for complete information concerns the generalized second-price mechanism and lends additional theoretical support to the use of this mechanism in practice. Particularly interesting from a technical perspective is the result for incomplete information, which is driven by a surprising connection between equilibrium bids in the VCG mechanism and the generalized first-price mechanism.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2018

Social Choice with Non Quasi-linear Utilities

Without monetary payments, the Gibbard-Satterthwaite theorem proves that under mild requirements all truthful social choice mechanisms must be dictatorships. When payments are allowed, the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanism implements the value-maximizing choice, and has many other good properties: it is strategy-proof, onto, deterministic, individually rational, and does not make positive transfers to the agents. By Roberts' theorem, with three or more alternatives, the weighted VCG mechanisms are essentially unique for domains with quasi-linear utilities. The goal of this paper is to characterize domains of non-quasi-linear utilities where "reasonable" mechanisms (with VCG-like properties) exist. Our main result is a tight characterization of the maximal non quasi-linear utility domain, which we call the largest parallel domain. We extend Roberts' theorem to parallel domains, and use the generalized theorem to prove two impossibility results. First, any reasonable mechanism must be dictatorial when the utility domain is quasi-linear together with any single non-parallel type. Second, for richer utility domains that still differ very slightly from quasi-linearity, every strategy-proof, onto and deterministic mechanism must be a dictatorship.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2018

Optimizing cluster-based randomized experiments under a monotonicity assumption

Cluster-based randomized experiments are popular designs for mitigating the bias of standard estimators when interference is present and classical causal inference and experimental design assumptions (such as SUTVA or ITR) do not hold. Without an exact knowledge of the interference structure, it can be challenging to understand which partitioning of the experimental units is optimal to minimize the estimation bias. In the paper, we introduce a monotonicity condition under which a novel two-stage experimental design allows us to determine which of two cluster-based designs yields the least biased estimator. We then consider the setting of online advertising auctions and show that reserve price experiments verify the monotonicity condition and the proposed framework and methodology applies. We validate our findings on an advertising auction dataset.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Peer Prediction with Heterogeneous Tasks

Peer prediction is a method to promote contributions of information by users in settings in which there is no way to verify the quality of responses. In multi-task peer prediction, the reports from users across multiple tasks are used to score contributions. This paper extends the correlated agreement (CA) multi-task peer prediction mechanism to allow the reports from users to be on heterogeneous tasks, each associated with different distributions on responses. The motivation comes from wanting to elicit user-generated content about places in a city, where tasks vary because places, and questions about places, vary. We prove that the generalized CA mechanism is informed truthful under weak conditions, meaning that it is strictly beneficial for a user to invest effort and acquire information, and that truthful reporting is the best strategy when investing effort, as well as an equilibrium. We demonstrate that the mechanism has good incentive properties when tested in simulation on distributions derived from user reports on Google Local Guides.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2017

Calibrated Fairness in Bandits

We study fairness within the stochastic, \emph{multi-armed bandit} (MAB) decision making framework. We adapt the fairness framework of "treating similar individuals similarly" to this setting. Here, an `individual' corresponds to an arm and two arms are `similar' if they have a similar quality distribution. First, we adopt a {\em smoothness constraint} that if two arms have a similar quality distribution then the probability of selecting each arm should be similar. In addition, we define the {\em fairness regret}, which corresponds to the degree to which an algorithm is not calibrated, where perfect calibration requires that the probability of selecting an arm is equal to the probability with which the arm has the best quality realization. We show that a variation on Thompson sampling satisfies smooth fairness for total variation distance, and give an $\tilde{O}((kT)^{2/3})$ bound on fairness regret. This complements prior work, which protects an on-average better arm from being less favored. We also explain how to extend our algorithm to the dueling bandit setting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Long-term causal effects via behavioral game theory

Planned experiments are the gold standard in reliably comparing the causal effect of switching from a baseline policy to a new policy. One critical shortcoming of classical experimental methods, however, is that they typically do not take into account the dynamic nature of response to policy changes. For instance, in an experiment where we seek to understand the effects of a new ad pricing policy on auction revenue, agents may adapt their bidding in response to the experimental pricing changes. Thus, causal effects of the new pricing policy after such adaptation period, the {\em long-term causal effects}, are not captured by the classical methodology even though they clearly are more indicative of the value of the new policy. Here, we formalize a framework to define and estimate long-term causal effects of policy changes in multiagent economies. Central to our approach is behavioral game theory, which we leverage to formulate the ignorability assumptions that are necessary for causal inference. Under such assumptions we estimate long-term causal effects through a latent space approach, where a behavioral model of how agents act conditional on their latent behaviors is combined with a temporal model of how behaviors evolve over time.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

Informed Truthfulness in Multi-Task Peer Prediction

The problem of peer prediction is to elicit information from agents in settings without any objective ground truth against which to score reports. Peer prediction mechanisms seek to exploit correlations between signals to align incentives with truthful reports. A long-standing concern has been the possibility of uninformative equilibria. For binary signals, a multi-task mechanism [Dasgupta-Ghosh '13] achieves strong truthfulness, so that the truthful equilibrium strictly maximizes payoff. We characterize conditions on the signal distribution for which this mechanism remains strongly-truthful with non-binary signals, also providing a greatly simplified proof. We introduce the Correlated Agreement (CA) mechanism, which handles multiple signals and provides informed truthfulness: no strategy profile provides more payoff in equilibrium than truthful reporting, and the truthful equilibrium is strictly better than any uninformed strategy (where an agent avoids the effort of obtaining a signal). The CA mechanism is maximally strongly truthful, in that no mechanism in a broad class of mechanisms is strongly truthful on a larger family of signal distributions. We also give a detail-free version of the mechanism that removes any knowledge requirements on the part of the designer, using reports on many tasks to learn statistics while retaining epsilon-informed truthfulness.

cs.GT↗