arXiv subjects

David Clifton

Publications and source records attributed to David Clifton.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI

AI systems are increasingly used to support forward-looking scientific judgment, but it remains unclear whether they can form reliable expectations about future scientific advances. Here we show that strong scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into accurate forecasting of future scientific advances. To study this question, we introduce CUSP, a temporally grounded evaluation suite for event-level scientific forecasting across eight scientific disciplines. Across six frontier AI models, we observe a striking asymmetry in forecasting performance together with systematic error patterns. Models often identify plausible mechanisms underlying future scientific advances, yet perform near chance on feasibility assessment, generate solution strategies that only weakly align with realized advances, and systematically predict scientific advances later than they become publicly observable. Providing additional pre-cutoff scientific knowledge improves performance but does not eliminate these forecasting limitations. These findings suggest that current AI systems possess substantial retrospective scientific competence but limited forward-looking predictive capability. Scientific forecasting should therefore be evaluated as a complementary dimension of AI scientific capability when deploying AI systems for research prioritization and scientific decision-making.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Geometric Characterisation and Structured Trajectory Surrogates for Clinical Dataset Condensation

Dataset condensation constructs compact synthetic datasets that retain the training utility of large real-world datasets, enabling efficient model development and potentially supporting downstream research in governed domains such as healthcare. Trajectory matching (TM) is a widely used condensation approach that supervises synthetic data using changes in model parameters observed during training on real data, yet the structure of this supervision signal remains poorly understood. In this paper, we provide a geometric characterisation of trajectory matching, showing that a fixed synthetic dataset can only reproduce a limited span of such training-induced parameter changes. When the resulting supervision signal is spectrally broad, this creates a conditional representability bottleneck. Motivated by this mismatch, we propose Bezier Trajectory Matching (BTM), which replaces SGD trajectories with quadratic Bezier trajectory surrogates between initial and final model states. These surrogates are optimised to reduce average loss along the path while replacing broad SGD-derived supervision with a more structured, lower-rank signal that is better aligned with the optimisation constraints of a fixed synthetic dataset, and they substantially reduce trajectory storage. Experiments on five clinical datasets demonstrate that BTM consistently matches or improves upon standard trajectory matching, with the largest gains in low-prevalence and low-synthetic-budget settings. These results indicate that effective trajectory matching depends on structuring the supervision signal rather than reproducing stochastic optimisation paths.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Geometric Uncertainty for Detecting and Correcting Hallucinations in LLMs

Large language models demonstrate impressive results across diverse tasks but are still known to hallucinate, generating linguistically plausible but incorrect answers to questions. Uncertainty quantification has been proposed as a strategy for hallucination detection, requiring estimates for both global uncertainty (attributed to a batch of responses) and local uncertainty (attributed to individual responses). While recent black-box approaches have shown some success, they often rely on disjoint heuristics or graph-theoretic approximations that lack a unified geometric interpretation. We introduce a geometric framework to address this, based on archetypal analysis of batches of responses sampled with only black-box model access. At the global level, we propose Geometric Volume, which measures the convex hull volume of archetypes derived from response embeddings. At the local level, we propose Geometric Suspicion, which leverages the spatial relationship between responses and these archetypes to rank reliability, enabling hallucination reduction through preferential response selection. Unlike prior methods that rely on discrete pairwise comparisons, our approach provides continuous semantic boundary points which have utility for attributing reliability to individual responses. Experiments show that our framework performs comparably to or better than prior methods on short form question-answering datasets, and achieves superior results on medical datasets where hallucinations carry particularly critical risks. We also provide theoretical justification by proving a link between convex hull volume and entropy.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Optimization-Inspired Few-Shot Adaptation for Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in real-world applications. However, adapting LLMs to novel tasks via fine-tuning often requires substantial training data and computational resources that are impractical in few-shot scenarios. Existing approaches, such as in-context learning and Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT), face key limitations: in-context learning introduces additional inference computational overhead with limited performance gains, while PEFT models are prone to overfitting on the few demonstration examples. In this work, we reinterpret the forward pass of LLMs as an optimization process, a sequence of preconditioned gradient descent steps refining internal representations. Based on this connection, we propose Optimization-Inspired Few-Shot Adaptation (OFA), integrating a parameterization that learns preconditioners without introducing additional trainable parameters, and an objective that improves optimization efficiency by learning preconditioners based on a convergence bound, while simultaneously steering the optimization path toward the flat local minimum. Our method overcomes both issues of ICL-based and PEFT-based methods, and demonstrates superior performance over the existing methods on a variety of few-shot adaptation tasks in experiments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

LENS: Multi-level Evaluation of Multimodal Reasoning with Large Language Models

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have achieved significant advances in integrating visual and linguistic information, yet their ability to reason about complex and real-world scenarios remains limited. The existing benchmarks are usually constructed in the task-oriented manner without guarantee that different task samples come from the same data distribution, thus they often fall short in evaluating the synergistic effects of lower-level perceptual capabilities on higher-order reasoning. To lift this limitation, we contribute Lens, a multi-level benchmark with 3.4K contemporary images and 60K+ human-authored questions covering eight tasks and 12 daily scenarios, forming three progressive task tiers, i.e., perception, understanding, and reasoning. One feature is that each image is equipped with rich annotations for all tasks. Thus, this dataset intrinsically supports to evaluate MLLMs to handle image-invariable prompts, from basic perception to compositional reasoning. In addition, our images are manully collected from the social media, in which 53% were published later than Jan. 2025. We evaluate 15+ frontier MLLMs such as Qwen2.5-VL-72B, InternVL3-78B, GPT-4o and two reasoning models QVQ-72B-preview and Kimi-VL. These models are released later than Dec. 2024, and none of them achieve an accuracy greater than 60% in the reasoning tasks. Project page: https://github.com/Lens4MLLMs/lens. ICCV 2025 workshop page: https://lens4mllms.github.io/mars2-workshop-iccv2025/

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

MISE: Meta-knowledge Inheritance for Social Media-Based Stressor Estimation

Stress haunts people in modern society, which may cause severe health issues if left unattended. With social media becoming an integral part of daily life, leveraging social media to detect stress has gained increasing attention. While the majority of the work focuses on classifying stress states and stress categories, this study introduce a new task aimed at estimating more specific stressors (like exam, writing paper, etc.) through users' posts on social media. Unfortunately, the diversity of stressors with many different classes but a few examples per class, combined with the consistent arising of new stressors over time, hinders the machine understanding of stressors. To this end, we cast the stressor estimation problem within a practical scenario few-shot learning setting, and propose a novel meta-learning based stressor estimation framework that is enhanced by a meta-knowledge inheritance mechanism. This model can not only learn generic stressor context through meta-learning, but also has a good generalization ability to estimate new stressors with little labeled data. A fundamental breakthrough in our approach lies in the inclusion of the meta-knowledge inheritance mechanism, which equips our model with the ability to prevent catastrophic forgetting when adapting to new stressors. The experimental results show that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance compared with the baselines. Additionally, we construct a social media-based stressor estimation dataset that can help train artificial intelligence models to facilitate human well-being. The dataset is now public at \href{https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/xinwangcs/stressor-cause-of-mental-health-problem-dataset}{\underline{Kaggle}} and \href{https://huggingface.co/datasets/XinWangcs/Stressor}{\underline{Hugging Face}}.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Bridging the Generalisation Gap: Synthetic Data Generation for Multi-Site Clinical Model Validation

Ensuring the generalisability of clinical machine learning (ML) models across diverse healthcare settings remains a significant challenge due to variability in patient demographics, disease prevalence, and institutional practices. Existing model evaluation approaches often rely on real-world datasets, which are limited in availability, embed confounding biases, and lack the flexibility needed for systematic experimentation. Furthermore, while generative models aim for statistical realism, they often lack transparency and explicit control over factors driving distributional shifts. In this work, we propose a novel structured synthetic data framework designed for the controlled benchmarking of model robustness, fairness, and generalisability. Unlike approaches focused solely on mimicking observed data, our framework provides explicit control over the data generating process, including site-specific prevalence variations, hierarchical subgroup effects, and structured feature interactions. This enables targeted investigation into how models respond to specific distributional shifts and potential biases. Through controlled experiments, we demonstrate the framework's ability to isolate the impact of site variations, support fairness-aware audits, and reveal generalisation failures, particularly highlighting how model complexity interacts with site-specific effects. This work contributes a reproducible, interpretable, and configurable tool designed to advance the reliable deployment of ML in clinical settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Deep Learning in Concealed Dense Prediction

Deep learning is developing rapidly and handling common computer vision tasks well. It is time to pay attention to more complex vision tasks, as model size, knowledge, and reasoning capabilities continue to improve. In this paper, we introduce and review a family of complex tasks, termed Concealed Dense Prediction (CDP), which has great value in agriculture, industry, etc. CDP's intrinsic trait is that the targets are concealed in their surroundings, thus fully perceiving them requires fine-grained representations, prior knowledge, auxiliary reasoning, etc. The contributions of this review are three-fold: (i) We introduce the scope, characteristics, and challenges specific to CDP tasks and emphasize their essential differences from generic vision tasks. (ii) We develop a taxonomy based on concealment counteracting to summarize deep learning efforts in CDP through experiments on three tasks. We compare 25 state-of-the-art methods across 12 widely used concealed datasets. (iii) We discuss the potential applications of CDP in the large model era and summarize 6 potential research directions. We offer perspectives for the future development of CDP by constructing a large-scale multimodal instruction fine-tuning dataset, CvpINST, and a concealed visual perception agent, CvpAgent.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Aggregation on Learnable Manifolds for Asynchronous Federated Optimization

Asynchronous federated learning (FL) with heterogeneous clients faces two key issues: curvature-induced loss barriers encountered by standard linear parameter interpolation techniques (e.g. FedAvg) and interference from stale updates misaligned with the server's current optimisation state. To alleviate these issues, we introduce a geometric framework that casts aggregation as curve learning in a Riemannian model space and decouples trajectory selection from update conflict resolution. Within this, we propose AsyncBezier, which replaces linear aggregation with low-degree polynomial (Bezier) trajectories to bypass loss barriers, and OrthoDC, which projects delayed updates via inner product-based orthogonality to reduce interference. We establish framework-level convergence guarantees covering each variant given simple assumptions on their components. On three datasets spanning general-purpose and healthcare domains, including LEAF Shakespeare and FEMNIST, our approach consistently improves accuracy and client fairness over strong asynchronous baselines; finally, we show that these gains are preserved even when other methods are allocated a higher local compute budget.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Cognition Chain for Explainable Psychological Stress Detection on Social Media

Stress is a pervasive global health issue that can lead to severe mental health problems. Early detection offers timely intervention and prevention of stress-related disorders. The current early detection models perform "black box" inference suffering from limited explainability and trust which blocks the real-world clinical application. Thanks to the generative properties introduced by the Large Language Models (LLMs), the decision and the prediction from such models are semi-interpretable through the corresponding description. However, the existing LLMs are mostly trained for general purposes without the guidance of psychological cognitive theory. To this end, we first highlight the importance of prior theory with the observation of performance boosted by the chain-of-thoughts tailored for stress detection. This method termed Cognition Chain explicates the generation of stress through a step-by-step cognitive perspective based on cognitive appraisal theory with a progress pipeline: Stimulus $\rightarrow$ Evaluation $\rightarrow$ Reaction $\rightarrow$ Stress State, guiding LLMs to provide comprehensive reasoning explanations. We further study the benefits brought by the proposed Cognition Chain format by utilising it as a synthetic dataset generation template for LLMs instruction-tuning and introduce CogInstruct, an instruction-tuning dataset for stress detection. This dataset is developed using a three-stage self-reflective annotation pipeline that enables LLMs to autonomously generate and refine instructional data. By instruction-tuning Llama3 with CogInstruct, we develop CogLLM, an explainable stress detection model. Evaluations demonstrate that CogLLM achieves outstanding performance while enhancing explainability. Our work contributes a novel approach by integrating cognitive theories into LLM reasoning processes, offering a promising direction for future explainable AI research.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

F$^3$OCUS -- Federated Finetuning of Vision-Language Foundation Models with Optimal Client Layer Updating Strategy via Multi-objective Meta-Heuristics

Effective training of large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) on resource-constrained client devices in Federated Learning (FL) requires the usage of parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) strategies. To this end, we demonstrate the impact of two factors \textit{viz.}, client-specific layer importance score that selects the most important VLM layers for fine-tuning and inter-client layer diversity score that encourages diverse layer selection across clients for optimal VLM layer selection. We first theoretically motivate and leverage the principal eigenvalue magnitude of layerwise Neural Tangent Kernels and show its effectiveness as client-specific layer importance score. Next, we propose a novel layer updating strategy dubbed F$^3$OCUS that jointly optimizes the layer importance and diversity factors by employing a data-free, multi-objective, meta-heuristic optimization on the server. We explore 5 different meta-heuristic algorithms and compare their effectiveness for selecting model layers and adapter layers towards PEFT-FL. Furthermore, we release a new MedVQA-FL dataset involving overall 707,962 VQA triplets and 9 modality-specific clients and utilize it to train and evaluate our method. Overall, we conduct more than 10,000 client-level experiments on 6 Vision-Language FL task settings involving 58 medical image datasets and 4 different VLM architectures of varying sizes to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Applying and Evaluating Large Language Models in Mental Health Care: A Scoping Review of Human-Assessed Generative Tasks

Large language models (LLMs) are emerging as promising tools for mental health care, offering scalable support through their ability to generate human-like responses. However, the effectiveness of these models in clinical settings remains unclear. This scoping review aimed to assess the current generative applications of LLMs in mental health care, focusing on studies where these models were tested with human participants in real-world scenarios. A systematic search across APA PsycNet, Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science identified 726 unique articles, of which 17 met the inclusion criteria. These studies encompassed applications such as clinical assistance, counseling, therapy, and emotional support. However, the evaluation methods were often non-standardized, with most studies relying on ad hoc scales that limit comparability and robustness. Privacy, safety, and fairness were also frequently underexplored. Moreover, reliance on proprietary models, such as OpenAI's GPT series, raises concerns about transparency and reproducibility. While LLMs show potential in expanding mental health care access, especially in underserved areas, the current evidence does not fully support their use as standalone interventions. More rigorous, standardized evaluations and ethical oversight are needed to ensure these tools can be safely and effectively integrated into clinical practice.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

The doctor will polygraph you now: ethical concerns with AI for fact-checking patients

Artificial intelligence (AI) methods have been proposed for the prediction of social behaviors which could be reasonably understood from patient-reported information. This raises novel ethical concerns about respect, privacy, and control over patient data. Ethical concerns surrounding clinical AI systems for social behavior verification can be divided into two main categories: (1) the potential for inaccuracies/biases within such systems, and (2) the impact on trust in patient-provider relationships with the introduction of automated AI systems for fact-checking, particularly in cases where the data/models may contradict the patient. Additionally, this report simulated the misuse of a verification system using patient voice samples and identified a potential LLM bias against patient-reported information in favor of multi-dimensional data and the outputs of other AI methods (i.e., AI self-trust). Finally, recommendations were presented for mitigating the risk that AI verification methods will cause harm to patients or undermine the purpose of the healthcare system.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Voice EHR: Introducing Multimodal Audio Data for Health

Artificial intelligence (AI) models trained on audio data may have the potential to rapidly perform clinical tasks, enhancing medical decision-making and potentially improving outcomes through early detection. Existing technologies depend on limited datasets collected with expensive recording equipment in high-income countries, which challenges deployment in resource-constrained, high-volume settings where audio data may have a profound impact on health equity. This report introduces a novel data type and a corresponding collection system that captures health data through guided questions using only a mobile/web application. The app facilitates the collection of an audio electronic health record (Voice EHR) which may contain complex biomarkers of health from conventional voice/respiratory features, speech patterns, and spoken language with semantic meaning and longitudinal context, potentially compensating for the typical limitations of unimodal clinical datasets. This report presents the application used for data collection, initial experiments on data quality, and case studies which demonstrate the potential of voice EHR to advance the scalability/diversity of audio AI.

cs.SD↗

arXiv2024

Efficiency at Scale: Investigating the Performance of Diminutive Language Models in Clinical Tasks

The entry of large language models (LLMs) into research and commercial spaces has led to a trend of ever-larger models, with initial promises of generalisability, followed by a widespread desire to downsize and create specialised models without the need for complete fine-tuning, using Parameter Efficient Fine-tuning (PEFT) methods. We present an investigation into the suitability of different PEFT methods to clinical decision-making tasks, across a range of model sizes, including extremely small models with as few as $25$ million parameters. Our analysis shows that the performance of most PEFT approaches varies significantly from one task to another, with the exception of LoRA, which maintains relatively high performance across all model sizes and tasks, typically approaching or matching full fine-tuned performance. The effectiveness of PEFT methods in the clinical domain is evident, particularly for specialised models which can operate on low-cost, in-house computing infrastructure. The advantages of these models, in terms of speed and reduced training costs, dramatically outweighs any performance gain from large foundation LLMs. Furthermore, we highlight how domain-specific pre-training interacts with PEFT methods and model size, and discuss how these factors interplay to provide the best efficiency-performance trade-off. Full code available at: tbd.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Using Bottleneck Adapters to Identify Cancer in Clinical Notes under Low-Resource Constraints

Processing information locked within clinical health records is a challenging task that remains an active area of research in biomedical NLP. In this work, we evaluate a broad set of machine learning techniques ranging from simple RNNs to specialised transformers such as BioBERT on a dataset containing clinical notes along with a set of annotations indicating whether a sample is cancer-related or not. Furthermore, we specifically employ efficient fine-tuning methods from NLP, namely, bottleneck adapters and prompt tuning, to adapt the models to our specialised task. Our evaluations suggest that fine-tuning a frozen BERT model pre-trained on natural language and with bottleneck adapters outperforms all other strategies, including full fine-tuning of the specialised BioBERT model. Based on our findings, we suggest that using bottleneck adapters in low-resource situations with limited access to labelled data or processing capacity could be a viable strategy in biomedical text mining. The code used in the experiments are going to be made available at https://github.com/omidrohanian/bottleneck-adapters.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

All models are local: time to replace external validation with recurrent local validation

External validation is often recommended to ensure the generalizability of ML models. However, it neither guarantees generalizability nor equates to a model's clinical usefulness (the ultimate goal of any clinical decision-support tool). External validation is misaligned with current healthcare ML needs. First, patient data changes across time, geography, and facilities. These changes create significant volatility in the performance of a single fixed model (especially for deep learning models, which dominate clinical ML). Second, newer ML techniques, current market forces, and updated regulatory frameworks are enabling frequent updating and monitoring of individual deployed model instances. We submit that external validation is insufficient to establish ML models' safety or utility. Proposals to fix the external validation paradigm do not go far enough. Continued reliance on it as the ultimate test is likely to lead us astray. We propose the MLOps-inspired paradigm of recurring local validation as an alternative that ensures the validity of models while protecting against performance-disruptive data variability. This paradigm relies on site-specific reliability tests before every deployment, followed by regular and recurrent checks throughout the life cycle of the deployed algorithm. Initial and recurrent reliability tests protect against performance-disruptive distribution shifts, and concept drifts that jeopardize patient safety.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Nowruz at SemEval-2022 Task 7: Tackling Cloze Tests with Transformers and Ordinal Regression

This paper outlines the system using which team Nowruz participated in SemEval 2022 Task 7 Identifying Plausible Clarifications of Implicit and Underspecified Phrases for both subtasks A and B. Using a pre-trained transformer as a backbone, the model targeted the task of multi-task classification and ranking in the context of finding the best fillers for a cloze task related to instructional texts on the website Wikihow. The system employed a combination of two ordinal regression components to tackle this task in a multi-task learning scenario. According to the official leaderboard of the shared task, this system was ranked 5th in the ranking and 7th in the classification subtasks out of 21 participating teams. With additional experiments, the models have since been further optimised.

cs.CL↗