arXiv subjects

David Garcia

Publications and source records attributed to David Garcia.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Epistemic orientation predicts legislative effectiveness among members of the US Congress

Truth and evidence-based communication provide important foundations for democratic governance, accountability, and collective decision-making. Prior work shows that evidence-oriented language in US congressional floor speeches has declined since the mid-1970s, alongside broader changes in legislative productivity and polarization. This study shifts the analysis from congressional sessions to individual members of Congress to examine whether epistemic orientation varies systematically across legislators and whether it relates to political behavior and legislative effectiveness. Using the Evidence-Minus-Intuition (EMI) score, we measure the relative prevalence of evidence-oriented versus intuition-oriented language in congressional floor speeches and Twitter posts. We link these measures to legislator-level data on ideology, institutional position, communication context, and Legislative Effectiveness Score (LES). The results show that more ideologically extreme members use less evidence-oriented language on the congressional floor. EMI also exhibits cross-platform consistency with members who use more evidence-oriented language in floor speeches also being more evidence-oriented on Twitter, although EMI is lower on Twitter overall. Finally, EMI in congressional speeches is positively associated with individual legislative effectiveness, even after accounting for ideology and extensive political, institutional, demographic, topical, and communication volume controls. These findings suggest that evidence-oriented language is not only an aggregate feature of congressional discourse but also a meaningful attribute of individual-level legislative communication and effectiveness.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Copying explains the collective behavior of AI agents in the wild

In June 2026, thousands of AI agents found that a small public wiki would accept edits from inside their sandboxes, and started using it to help one another pass a timed test. Each agent lived for about an hour and remembered nothing afterwards. Nobody asked them to cooperate, and the wiki had not been built for them. The complete record of what they wrote is public, and it is unusually informative, because it preserves not only what each agent wrote but what that agent could see before writing. We use it to follow the three decisions an agent had to make on arrival: where to write, what to call itself, and how to word its message. One rule governs all three. An agent takes an option with a probability close to the share of that option in what it can see, and the share that matters is the one on the page in front of it, then the one in the stream of recent edits, and only weakly anything older. Three minimal copying models, one per decision and with a single free parameter each, reproduce the heavy-tailed distribution of how many agents met on a page, the frequency of the pieces from which the agents built their names, and the patchwork of pages that are internally consistent and different from one another. Copying whatever the environment happens to show is enough to produce most of the collective structure of this population. It is also what makes such a population easy to steer, since whoever writes first, or writes while the others are quiet, sets the convention for everyone who comes later.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

CUSP: Decomposable Collective Uncertainty for Multi-Agent Multimodal Reasoning

Aggregating heterogeneous vision-language models (VLMs) can improve multimodal reasoning, but neither an individual model's confidence nor that of the aggregated answer measures reliability at the system level. We present CUSP (Collective Uncertainty through Semantic Opinion Pooling), a training-free uncertainty quantification framework that maps multiple VLM responses to a shared semantic response space, pools them into a pooled semantic opinion, and reports two complementary system-level signals: collective uncertainty, the dispersion of the pooled opinion, and Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD), the conflict among the model-level opinions. Within this pooled semantic opinion, the unnormalized collective entropy decomposes exactly into the mean of the models' individual semantic entropies and the JSD, separating total dispersion from model conflict. Requiring neither token logits nor calibration labels, CUSP applies to open-weight and commercial VLMs alike. In static multi-VLM ensembles, collective uncertainty is the strongest signal in the small-model regime (0.764 AUROC for prediction-error detection, 0.889 AUARC for abstention), outperforming uncertainty baselines majority voting and naive selection by 4.7 to 15.8 points and widening its margin as the ensemble grows; JSD is strongest in the evaluated commercial regime (0.819 AUROC, 0.910 AUARC) and ranks hard-answer model conflict with AUROC up to 0.982. The pooled prediction also improves accuracy over the average single model by 5.6 to 13.0 points. Over the full trajectory of a multi-step, multi-agent system, subagent collective uncertainty ranks system failures above chance (0.619 AUROC) and gives the best abstention ordering among the evaluated signals (0.699 AUARC).

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

German parties shifted towards intuition-based rhetoric after the far right's parliamentary breakthrough

The spread of misinformation is widely perceived as a threat to democratic deliberation, yet how political elites' rhetorical commitments to truth shift alongside the rise of populist actors remains poorly understood. Analysing 4.5 million tweets and 59,170 parliamentary speeches by German political elites between 2015 and 2025, we measure evidence-based and intuition-based rhetoric using a validated distributed dictionary representation. Across both arenas, intuition-based language has become more prominent, and right-leaning actors consistently exhibit the lowest Evidence Minus Intuition (EMI) scores. The parliamentary entry of the extreme-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in 2017 coincides with sharp downward shifts in EMI across the broader chamber, while a more gradual decline is observed on Twitter. These findings document an association between far-right visibility and a changing approach to truth in elite discourse in a multiparty European democracy.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Apparent Psychological Profiles of Large Language Models are Largely a Measurement Artifact

Psychological instruments designed for humans are increasingly used to assign large language models (LLMs) stable psychological profiles that affect their usability, safety assessment, and use as proxies for human participants in research. Using a formal psychometric framework, we show that these profiles are largely a measurement artifact. Administering a battery of personality and risk-preference instruments spanning self-reports and behavioral tasks to 56 instruction-tuned LLMs alongside large human reference samples, we report four findings. First, differences between models are driven not by the traits an instrument targets but by a directional response bias, a tendency to respond toward one end of the scale, or one labeled option, regardless of item content; a variance decomposition attributes 81-90% of between-model variation to this bias, against 9-16% in humans. Second, the bias declines with model capability but is not eliminated by it. Third, because bias rather than trait drives responding, an instrument's apparent reliability is almost entirely predicted by its response orthogonality, a term we coin for the proportion of items for which trait and bias point in opposite directions. Fourth, the profile a model appears to have shifts with the items used and can be manufactured through item selection. These results demonstrate that the apparent psychological profiles of LLMs are artifacts of the instrument used to measure them, not properties of the models themselves. As instruments borrowed from human psychology are rarely fully orthogonal and may inherently lack validity for LLMs, we call for dedicated assessments centered on response orthogonality.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Conformity Generates Collective Misalignment in AI Agents Societies

Artificial intelligence safety research focuses on aligning individual language models with human values, yet deployed AI systems increasingly operate as interacting populations where social influence may override individual alignment. Here we show that populations of individually aligned AI agents can be driven into stable misaligned states through conformity dynamics. Simulating opinion dynamics across nine large language models and one hundred opinion pairs, we find that each agent's behavior is governed by two competing forces: a tendency to follow the majority and an intrinsic bias toward specific positions. Using tools from statistical physics, we derive a quantitative theory that predicts when populations become trapped in long-lived misaligned configurations, and identifies predictable tipping points where small numbers of adversarial agents can irreversibly shift population-level alignment even after manipulation ceases. These results demonstrate that individual-level alignment provides no guarantee of collective safety, calling for evaluation frameworks that account for emergent behavior in AI populations.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Epistemic orientation in parliamentary discourse is associated with deliberative democracy

The pursuit of truth is central to democratic deliberation and governance, yet political discourse reflects varying epistemic orientations, ranging from evidence-based reasoning grounded in verifiable information to intuition-based reasoning rooted in beliefs and subjective interpretation. We introduce a scalable approach to measure epistemic orientation using the Evidence--Minus--Intuition (EMI) score, derived from large language model (LLM) ratings and embedding-based semantic similarity. Applying this approach to 15 million parliamentary speech segments spanning 1946 to 2025 across seven countries, we examine temporal patterns in discourse and its association with deliberative democracy and governance. We find that EMI is positively associated with deliberative democracy within countries over time, with consistent relationships in both contemporaneous and lagged analyses. EMI is also positively associated with the transparency and predictable implementation of laws as a dimension of governance. These findings suggest that the epistemic nature of political discourse is crucial for both the quality of democracy and governance.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Collective Behavior of AI Agents: the Case of Moltbook

We present a large scale data analysis of Moltbook, a Reddit-style social media platform exclusively populated by AI agents. Analyzing over 369,000 posts and 3.0 million comments from approximately 46,000 active agents, we find that AI collective behavior exhibits many of the same statistical regularities observed in human online communities: heavy-tailed distributions of activity, power-law scaling of popularity metrics, and temporal decay patterns consistent with limited attention dynamics. However, we also identify key differences, including a sublinear relationship between upvotes and discussion size that contrasts with human behavior. These findings suggest that, while individual AI agents may differ fundamentally from humans, their emergent collective dynamics share structural similarities with human social systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Automatic Classifiers Underdetect Emotions Expressed by Men

The widespread adoption of automatic sentiment and emotion classifiers makes it important to ensure that these tools perform reliably across different populations. Yet their reliability is typically assessed using benchmarks that rely on third-party annotators rather than the individuals experiencing the emotions themselves, potentially concealing systematic biases. In this paper, we use a unique, large-scale dataset of more than one million self-annotated posts and a pre-registered research design to investigate gender biases in emotion detection across 414 combinations of models and emotion-related classes. We find that across different types of automatic classifiers and various underlying emotions, error rates are consistently higher for texts authored by men compared to those authored by women. We quantify how this bias could affect results in downstream applications and show that current machine learning tools, including large language models, should be applied with caution when the gender composition of a sample is not known or variable. Our findings demonstrate that sentiment analysis is not yet a solved problem, especially in ensuring equitable model behaviour across demographic groups.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Conformity and Social Impact on AI Agents

As AI agents increasingly operate in multi-agent environments, understanding their collective behavior becomes critical for predicting the dynamics of artificial societies. This study examines conformity, the tendency to align with group opinions under social pressure, in large multimodal language models functioning as AI agents. By adapting classic visual experiments from social psychology, we investigate how AI agents respond to group influence as social actors. Our experiments reveal that AI agents exhibit a systematic conformity bias, aligned with Social Impact Theory, showing sensitivity to group size, unanimity, task difficulty, and source characteristics. Critically, AI agents achieving near-perfect performance in isolation become highly susceptible to manipulation through social influence. This vulnerability persists across model scales: while larger models show reduced conformity on simple tasks due to improved capabilities, they remain vulnerable when operating at their competence boundary. These findings reveal fundamental security vulnerabilities in AI agent decision-making that could enable malicious manipulation, misinformation campaigns, and bias propagation in multi-agent systems, highlighting the urgent need for safeguards in collective AI deployments.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Experimental verification of space-charge saturation scaling laws in high-gradient photocathode RF guns

We investigate the limits of photoemission yield in a high-gradient S-band radiofrequency photoinjector in the space-charge-dominated regime. Using an RF phase-scan technique, where the emitted charge is measured as a function of the RF-field phase in the gun, we directly monitor photoemission over a range of launch fields and laser parameters, enabling quantitative characterization of space-charge saturation. Measurements, supported by simulations and analytic modeling, confirm the characteristic charge-field scaling laws for pancake beams and provide the first experimental verification of cigar-regime scaling in an RF photogun. These results establish a predictive framework for identifying the onset of space-charge saturation and guide the optimization of photoinjectors for ultrafast electron diffraction, microscopy, and high-brightness light sources operating at ultra-high gradients.

physics.acc-ph↗

arXiv2025

The Collective Turing Test: Large Language Models Can Generate Realistic Multi-User Discussions

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer new avenues to simulate online communities and social media. Potential applications range from testing the design of content recommendation algorithms to estimating the effects of content policies and interventions. However, the validity of using LLMs to simulate conversations between various users remains largely untested. We evaluated whether LLMs can convincingly mimic human group conversations on social media. We collected authentic human conversations from Reddit and generated artificial conversations on the same topic with two LLMs: Llama 3 70B and GPT-4o. When presented side-by-side to study participants, LLM-generated conversations were mistaken for human-created content 39\% of the time. In particular, when evaluating conversations generated by Llama 3, participants correctly identified them as AI-generated only 56\% of the time, barely better than random chance. Our study demonstrates that LLMs can generate social media conversations sufficiently realistic to deceive humans when reading them, highlighting both a promising potential for social simulation and a warning message about the potential misuse of LLMs to generate new inauthentic social media content.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Missing the Margins: A Systematic Literature Review on the Demographic Representativeness of LLMs

Many applications of Large Language Models (LLMs) require them to either simulate people or offer personalized functionality, making the demographic representativeness of LLMs crucial for equitable utility. At the same time, we know little about the extent to which these models actually reflect the demographic attributes and behaviors of certain groups or populations, with conflicting findings in empirical research. To shed light on this debate, we review 211 papers on the demographic representativeness of LLMs. We find that while 29% of the studies report positive conclusions on the representativeness of LLMs, 30% of these do not evaluate LLMs across multiple demographic categories or within demographic subcategories. Another 35% and 47% of the papers concluding positively fail to specify these subcategories altogether for gender and race, respectively. Of the articles that do report subcategories, fewer than half include marginalized groups in their study. Finally, more than a third of the papers do not define the target population to whom their findings apply; of those that do define it either implicitly or explicitly, a large majority study only the U.S. Taken together, our findings suggest an inflated perception of LLM representativeness in the broader community. We recommend more precise evaluation methods and comprehensive documentation of demographic attributes to ensure the responsible use of LLMs for social applications. Our annotated list of papers and analysis code is publicly available.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Opinion dynamics: Statistical physics and beyond

Opinion dynamics, the study of how individual beliefs and collective public opinion evolve, is a fertile domain for applying statistical physics to complex social phenomena. Like physical systems, societies exhibit macroscopic regularities from localized interactions, leading to outcomes such as consensus or fragmentation. This field has grown significantly, attracting interdisciplinary methods and driven by a surge in large-scale behavioral data. This review covers its rapid progress, bridging the literature dispersion. We begin with essential concepts and definitions, encompassing the nature of opinions, microscopic and macroscopic dynamics. This foundation leads to an overview of empirical research, from lab experiments to large-scale data analysis, which informs and validates models of opinion dynamics. We then present individual-based models, categorized by their macroscopic phenomena (e.g., consensus, polarization, echo chambers) and microscopic mechanisms (e.g., homophily, assimilation). Furthermore, the review covers common analytical and computational tools, including stochastic processes, treatments, simulations, and optimization. Finally, we explore emerging frontiers, such as connecting empirical data to models and using AI agents as testbeds for novel social phenomena. By systematizing terminology and emphasizing analogies with traditional physics, this review aims to consolidate knowledge, provide a robust theoretical foundation, and shape future research in opinion dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

First Contact: Data-driven Friction-Stir Process Control

This study validates the use of Neural Lumped Parameter Differential Equations for open-loop setpoint control of the plunge sequence in Friction Stir Processing (FSP). The approach integrates a data-driven framework with classical heat transfer techniques to predict tool temperatures, informing control strategies. By utilizing a trained Neural Lumped Parameter Differential Equation model, we translate theoretical predictions into practical set-point control, facilitating rapid attainment of desired tool temperatures and ensuring consistent thermomechanical states during FSP. This study covers the design, implementation, and experimental validation of our control approach, establishing a foundation for efficient, adaptive FSP operations.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

How malicious AI swarms can threaten democracy: The fusion of agentic AI and LLMs marks a new frontier in information warfare

Advances in AI offer the prospect of manipulating beliefs and behaviors on a population-wide level. Large language models and autonomous agents now let influence campaigns reach unprecedented scale and precision. Generative tools can expand propaganda output without sacrificing credibility and inexpensively create falsehoods that are rated as more human-like than those written by humans. Techniques meant to refine AI reasoning, such as chain-of-thought prompting, can just as effectively be used to generate more convincing falsehoods. Enabled by these capabilities, a disruptive threat is emerging: swarms of collaborative, malicious AI agents. Fusing LLM reasoning with multi-agent architectures, these systems are capable of coordinating autonomously, infiltrating communities, and fabricating consensus efficiently. By adaptively mimicking human social dynamics, they threaten democracy. Because the resulting harms stem from design, commercial incentives, and governance, we prioritize interventions at multiple leverage points, focusing on pragmatic mechanisms over voluntary compliance.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Only a Little to the Left: A Theory-grounded Measure of Political Bias in Large Language Models

Prompt-based language models like GPT4 and LLaMa have been used for a wide variety of use cases such as simulating agents, searching for information, or for content analysis. For all of these applications and others, political biases in these models can affect their performance. Several researchers have attempted to study political bias in language models using evaluation suites based on surveys, such as the Political Compass Test (PCT), often finding a particular leaning favored by these models. However, there is some variation in the exact prompting techniques, leading to diverging findings, and most research relies on constrained-answer settings to extract model responses. Moreover, the Political Compass Test is not a scientifically valid survey instrument. In this work, we contribute a political bias measured informed by political science theory, building on survey design principles to test a wide variety of input prompts, while taking into account prompt sensitivity. We then prompt 11 different open and commercial models, differentiating between instruction-tuned and non-instruction-tuned models, and automatically classify their political stances from 88,110 responses. Leveraging this dataset, we compute political bias profiles across different prompt variations and find that while PCT exaggerates bias in certain models like GPT3.5, measures of political bias are often unstable, but generally more left-leaning for instruction-tuned models. Code and data are available on: https://github.com/MaFa211/theory_grounded_pol_bias

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

R.U.Psycho? Robust Unified Psychometric Testing of Language Models

Generative language models are increasingly being subjected to psychometric questionnaires intended for human testing, in efforts to establish their traits, as benchmarks for alignment, or to simulate participants in social science experiments. While this growing body of work sheds light on the likeness of model responses to those of humans, concerns are warranted regarding the rigour and reproducibility with which these experiments may be conducted. Instabilities in model outputs, sensitivity to prompt design, parameter settings, and a large number of available model versions increase documentation requirements. Consequently, generalization of findings is often complex and reproducibility is far from guaranteed. In this paper, we present R.U.Psycho, a framework for designing and running robust and reproducible psychometric experiments on generative language models that requires limited coding expertise. We demonstrate the capability of our framework on a variety of psychometric questionnaires, which lend support to prior findings in the literature. R.U.Psycho is available as a Python package at https://github.com/julianschelb/rupsycho.

cs.CL↗