arXiv subjects
Publications and source records attributed to David Itkin.
Diffusion processes with reflection, possibly oblique, on the boundary of a given sufficiently regular closed convex domain in Euclidean space, are constructed in a novel way via instantaneous transformations (``foldings") of suitable unconstrained diffusions.
Drifts of asset returns are notoriously difficult to model accurately and, yet, trading strategies obtained from portfolio optimization are very sensitive to them. To mitigate this well-known phenomenon we study robust growth-optimization in a high-dimensional incomplete market under drift uncertainty of the asset price process $X$, under an additional ergodicity assumption, which constrains but does not fully specify the drift in general. The class of admissible models allows $X$ to depend on a multivariate stochastic factor $Y$ and fixes (a) their joint volatility structure, (b) their long-term joint ergodic density and (c) the dynamics of the stochastic factor process $Y$. A principal motivation of this framework comes from pairs trading, where $X$ is the spread process and models with the above characteristics are commonplace. Our main results determine the robust optimal growth rate, construct a worst-case admissible model and characterize the robust growth-optimal strategy via a solution to a certain partial differential equation (PDE). We demonstrate that utilizing the stochastic factor leads to improvement in robust growth complementing the conclusions of the previous study by Itkin et. al. (arXiv:2211.15628 [q-fin.MF], forthcoming in $\textit{Finance and Stochastics}$), which additionally robustified the dynamics of the stochastic factor leading to $Y$-independent optimal strategies. Our analysis leads to new financial insights, quantifying the improvement in growth the investor can achieve by optimally incorporating stochastic factors into their trading decisions. We illustrate our theoretical results on several numerical examples including an application to pairs trading.
We study a consumption-investment problem in a multi-asset market where the returns follow a generic rank-based model. Our main result derives an HJB equation with Neumann boundary conditions for the value function and proves a corresponding verification theorem. The control problem is nonstandard due to the discontinuous nature of the coefficients in rank-based models, requiring a bespoke approach of independent mathematical interest. The special case of first-order models, prescribing constant drift and diffusion coefficients for the ranked returns, admits explicit solutions when the investor is either (a) unconstrained, (b) abides by open market constraints or (c) is fully invested in the market. The explicit optimal strategies in all cases are related to the celebrated solution to Merton's problem, despite the intractability of constraint (b) in that setting.
We develop a framework for stochastic portfolio theory (SPT), which incorporates modern nonlinear price impact and impact decay models. Our main result is the derivation of the celebrated master formula for additive functional generation of trading strategies in a general high-dimensional market model with price impact. We also derive formulas for an investor's relative wealth with respect to the market portfolio, conditions that guarantee positive observed market prices and a stochastic differential equation governing the dynamics of the observed price, the investor's holdings and the price impact state processes. As an application of these results, we develop conditions for relative arbitrage in the price impact setting analogous to previously obtained results for the frictionless setting. We then apply our framework to backtest the quadratic and entropy generating functions on historical US equity data, illustrating how price impact can negatively affect portfolio performance.
In the framework of stochastic portfolio theory we introduce rank volatility stabilized models for large equity markets over long time horizons. These models are rank-based extensions of the volatility stabilized models introduced by Fernholz & Karatzas in 2005. On the theoretical side we establish global existence of the model and ergodicity of the induced ranked market weights. We also derive explicit expressions for growth-optimal portfolios and show the existence of relative arbitrage with respect to the market portfolio. On the empirical side we calibrate the model to sixteen years of CRSP US equity data matching (i) rank-based volatilities, (ii) stock turnover as measured by market weight collisions, (iii) the average market rate of return and (iv) the capital distribution curve. Assessment of model fit and error analysis is conducted both in and out of sample. To the best of our knowledge this is the first model exhibiting relative arbitrage that has statistically been shown to have a good quantitative fit with the empirical features (i)-(iv). We additionally simulate trajectories of the calibrated model and compare them to historical trajectories, both in and out of sample.
We study a new parametric family of distributions on the ordered simplex $\nabla^{d-1} = \{y \in \mathbb{R}^d: y_1 \geq \dots \geq y_d \geq 0, \sum_{k=1}^d y_k = 1\}$, which we call Generalized Rank Dirichlet (GRD) distributions. Their density is proportional to $\prod_{k=1}^d y_k^{a_k-1}$ for a parameter $a = (a_1,\dots,a_d) \in \mathbb{R}^d$ satisfying $a_k + a_{k+1} + \dots + a_d > 0$ for $k=2,\dots,d$. The density is similar to the Dirichlet distribution, but is defined on $\nabla^{d-1}$, leading to different properties. In particular, certain components $a_k$ can be negative. Random variables $Y = (Y_1,\dots,Y_d)$ with GRD distributions have previously been used to model capital distribution in financial markets and more generally can be used to model ranked order statistics of weight vectors. We obtain for any dimension $d$ explicit expressions for moments of order $M \in \mathbb{N}$ for the $Y_k$'s and moments of all orders for the log gaps $Z_k = \log Y_{k-1} - \log Y_k$ when $a_1 + \dots + a_d = -M$. Additionally, we propose an algorithm to exactly simulate random variates in this case. In the general case $a_1 + \dots + a_d \in \mathbb{R}$ we obtain series representations for these quantities and provide an approximate simulation algorithm.
We consider a robust asymptotic growth problem under model uncertainty in the presence of stochastic factors. We fix two inputs representing the instantaneous covariance for the asset price process $X$, which depends on an additional stochastic factor process $Y$, as well as the invariant density of $X$ together with $Y$. The stochastic factor process $Y$ has continuous trajectories but is not even required to be a semimartingale. Our setup allows for drift uncertainty in $X$ and model uncertainty for the local dynamics of $Y$. This work builds upon a recent paper of Kardaras & Robertson, where the authors consider an analogous problem, however, without the additional stochastic factor process. Under suitable, quite weak assumptions we are able to characterize the robust optimal trading strategy and the robust optimal growth rate. The optimal strategy is shown to be functionally generated and, remarkably, does not depend on the factor process $Y$. Our result provides a comprehensive answer to a question proposed by Fernholz in 2002. We also show that the optimal strategy remains optimal even in the more restricted case where $Y$ is a semimartingale and the joint covariation structure of $X$ and $Y$ is prescribed as a function of $X$ and $Y$. Our results are obtained using a combination of techniques from partial differential equations, calculus of variations, and generalized Dirichlet forms.
We propose a unified approach to several problems in Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT), which is a framework for equity markets with a large number $d$ of stocks. Our approach combines open markets, where trading is confined to the top $N$ capitalized stocks as well as the market portfolio consisting of all $d$ assets, with a parametric family of models which we call hybrid Jacobi processes. We provide a detailed analysis of ergodicity, particle collisions, and boundary attainment, and use these results to study the associated financial markets. Their properties include (1) stability of the capital distribution curve and (2) unleveraged and explicit growth optimal strategies. The sub-class of rank Jacobi models are additionally shown to (3) serve as the worst-case model for a robust asymptotic growth problem under model ambiguity and (4) exhibit stability in the large-$d$ limit. Our definition of an open market is a relaxation of existing definitions which is essential to make the analysis tractable.
Using the theory of Dirichlet forms we construct a large class of continuous semimartingales on an open domain $E \subset \mathbb{R}^d$, which are governed by rank-based, in addition to name-based, characteristics. Using the results of Baur et al. [Potential Analysis, 38(4):1233-1258,2013] we obtain a strong Feller property for this class of diffusions. As a consequence we are able to establish the nonexistence of triple collisions and obtain a simplified formula for the dynamics of its rank process. We also establish conditions under which the process is ergodic. Our main motivation is Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT), where rank-based diffusions of this type are used to model financial markets. We show that three main classes of models studied in SPT -- Atlas models, generalized volatility-stabilized models and polynomial models -- are special cases of our framework.
We consider the problem of maximizing the asymptotic growth rate of an investor under drift uncertainty in the setting of stochastic portfolio theory (SPT). As in the work of Kardaras and Robertson we take as inputs (i) a Markovian volatility matrix $c(x)$ and (ii) an invariant density $p(x)$ for the market weights, but we additionally impose long-only constraints on the investor. Our principal contribution is proving a uniqueness and existence result for the class of concave functionally generated portfolios and developing a finite dimensional approximation, which can be used to numerically find the optimum. In addition to the general results outlined above, we propose the use of a broad class of models for the volatility matrix $c(x)$, which can be calibrated to data and, under which, we obtain explicit formulas of the optimal unconstrained portfolio for any invariant density.