SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

David J. Butts

Publications and source records attributed to David J. Butts.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Generalized Langevin Models of Linear Agent-Based Systems: Strategic Influence Through Environmental Coupling

Agent-based models typically treat systems in isolation, discarding environmental coupling as either computationally prohibitive or dynamically irrelevant. We demonstrate that this neglect misses essential physics: environmental degrees of freedom create memory effects that fundamentally alter system dynamics. By systematically transforming linear update rules into exact generalized Langevin equations, we show that unobserved environmental agents manifest as memory kernels whose timescales and coupling strengths are determined by the environmental interaction spectrum. Network topology shapes this memory structure in distinct ways: small-world rewiring drives dynamics toward a single dominant relaxation mode, while fragmented environments sustain multiple persistent modes corresponding to isolated subpopulations. We apply this framework to covert influence operations where adversaries manipulate target populations exclusively via environmental intermediaries. The steady-state response admits a random-walk interpretation through hitting probabilities, revealing how zealot opinions diffuse through the environment to shift system agent opinions toward the zealot mean - even when zealots never directly contact targets.

physics.soc-ph

Simulating nationwide coupled disease and fear spread in an agent-based model

Human cognitive responses, behavioral responses, and disease dynamics co-evolve over the course of any disease outbreak, and can result in complex feedbacks. We present a dynamic agent-based model that explicitly couples the spread of disease with the spread of fear surrounding the disease, implemented within the EpiCast simulation framework. EpiCast models transmission across a realistic synthetic population, capturing individual-level interactions. In our model, fear propagates through both in-person contact and broadcast media, prompting individuals to adopt protective behaviors that reduce disease spread. In order to better understand these coupled dynamics, we create and compare a range of compartmental surrogate models to analyze the impact of including various disease states. Additionally, we compare a range of behavioral scenarios within EpiCast, varying the level and intensity of fear and behavioral change. Our results show that the addition of asymptomatic, exposed, and pre-symptomatic disease states can impact both the rate at which an outbreak progresses and its overall trajectory. Moreover, the combination of non-local fear spread via broadcasters and strong behavioral responses by fearful individuals generally leads to multiple epidemic waves, an outcome that occurs only within a narrow parameter range when fear spreads purely through local contact. Accounting for the coupled spread of fear and disease is critical for understanding disease dynamics and designing timely, targeted responses to emerging infectious threats.

q-bio.PE