arXiv subjects

David J. Warne

Publications and source records attributed to David J. Warne.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

A practical guide to pseudo-marginal methods for computational inference in systems biology

For many stochastic models of interest in systems biology, such as those describing biochemical reaction networks, exact quantification of parameter uncertainty through statistical inference is intractable. Likelihood-free computational inference techniques enable parameter inference when the likelihood function for the model is intractable but the generation of many sample paths is feasible through stochastic simulation of the forward problem. The most common likelihood-free method in systems biology is approximate Bayesian computation that accepts parameters that result in low discrepancy between stochastic simulations and measured data. However, it can be difficult to assess how the accuracy of the resulting inferences are affected by the choice of acceptance threshold and discrepancy function. The pseudo-marginal approach is an alternative likelihood-free inference method that utilises a Monte Carlo estimate of the likelihood function. This approach has several advantages, particularly in the context of noisy, partially observed, time-course data typical in biochemical reaction network studies. Specifically, the pseudo-marginal approach facilitates exact inference and uncertainty quantification, and may be efficiently combined with particle filters for low variance, high-accuracy likelihood estimation. In this review, we provide a practical introduction to the pseudo-marginal approach using inference for biochemical reaction networks as a series of case studies. Implementations of key algorithms and examples are provided using the Julia programming language; a high performance, open source programming language for scientific computing.

q-bio.MN↗

arXiv2019

Simulation and inference algorithms for stochastic biochemical reaction networks: from basic concepts to state-of-the-art

Stochasticity is a key characteristic of intracellular processes such as gene regulation and chemical signalling. Therefore, characterising stochastic effects in biochemical systems is essential to understand the complex dynamics of living things. Mathematical idealisations of biochemically reacting systems must be able to capture stochastic phenomena. While robust theory exists to describe such stochastic models, the computational challenges in exploring these models can be a significant burden in practice since realistic models are analytically intractable. Determining the expected behaviour and variability of a stochastic biochemical reaction network requires many probabilistic simulations of its evolution. Using a biochemical reaction network model to assist in the interpretation of time course data from a biological experiment is an even greater challenge due to the intractability of the likelihood function for determining observation probabilities. These computational challenges have been subjects of active research for over four decades. In this review, we present an accessible discussion of the major historical developments and state-of-the-art computational techniques relevant to simulation and inference problems for stochastic biochemical reaction network models. Detailed algorithms for particularly important methods are described and complemented with MATLAB implementations. As a result, this review provides a practical and accessible introduction to computational methods for stochastic models within the life sciences community.

q-bio.MN↗

arXiv2018

Multilevel rejection sampling for approximate Bayesian computation

Likelihood-free methods, such as approximate Bayesian computation, are powerful tools for practical inference problems with intractable likelihood functions. Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo variants of approximate Bayesian computation can be effective techniques for sampling posterior distributions in an approximate Bayesian computation setting. However, without careful consideration of convergence criteria and selection of proposal kernels, such methods can lead to very biased inference or computationally inefficient sampling. In contrast, rejection sampling for approximate Bayesian computation, despite being computationally intensive, results in independent, identically distributed samples from the approximated posterior. An alternative method is proposed for the acceleration of likelihood-free Bayesian inference that applies multilevel Monte Carlo variance reduction techniques directly to rejection sampling. The resulting method retains the accuracy advantages of rejection sampling while significantly improving the computational efficiency.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Optimal quantification of contact inhibition in cell populations

Contact inhibition refers to a reduction in the rate of cell migration and/or cell proliferation in regions of high cell density. Under normal conditions contact inhibition is associated with the proper functioning tissues, whereas abnormal regulation of contact inhibition is associated with pathological conditions, such as tumor spreading. Unfortunately, standard mathematical modeling practices mask the importance of parameters that control contact inhibition through scaling arguments. Furthermore, standard experimental protocols are insufficient to quantify the effects of contact inhibition because they focus on data describing early time, low-density dynamics only. Here we use the logistic growth equation as a caricature model of contact inhibition to make recommendations as to how to best mitigate these issues. Taking a Bayesian approach we quantify the trade-off between different features of experimental design and estimates of parameter uncertainty so that we can re-formulate a standard cell proliferation assay to provide estimates of both the low-density intrinsic growth rate, $λ$, and the carrying capacity density, $K$, which is a measure of contact inhibition.

q-bio.CB↗