arXiv subjects

David M. Kipping

Publications and source records attributed to David M. Kipping.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2019

LcTools: A Windows-Based Software System for Finding and Recording Signals in Lightcurves from NASA Space Missions

Since 2009, the Kepler, K2, and TESS missions have produced a vast number of lightcurves for public use. To assist citizen scientists in processing those lightcurves, the LcTools software system was developed. The system provides a set of tools to efficiently search for signals of interest in large sets of lightcurves using automated and manual (visual) techniques. At the heart of the system is a multipurpose lightcurve viewer and signal processor with advanced navigation and display capabilities to facilitate the search for signals. Other applications in the system are available for building lightcurve files in bulk, finding periodic signals automatically, and generating signal reports. This paper describes each application in the system and the methods by which the software can be used to detect and record signals. The software is free and can be obtained from the lead author by request.

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arXiv2018

A second terrestrial planet orbiting the nearby M dwarf LHS 1140

LHS 1140 is a nearby mid-M dwarf known to host a temperate rocky super-Earth (LHS 1140 b) on a 24.737-day orbit. Based on photometric observations by MEarth and Spitzer as well as Doppler spectroscopy from HARPS, we report the discovery of an additional transiting rocky companion (LHS 1140 c) with a mass of $1.81\pm0.39~{\rm M_{Earth}}$ and a radius of $1.282\pm0.024~{\rm R_{Earth}}$ on a tighter, 3.77795-day orbit. We also obtain more precise estimates of the mass and radius of LHS 1140 b to be $6.98\pm0.89~{\rm M_{Earth}}$ and $1.727\pm0.032~{\rm R_{Earth}}$. The mean densities of planets b and c are $7.5\pm1.0~\rm{g/cm^3}$ and $4.7\pm1.1~\rm{g/cm^3}$, respectively, both consistent with the Earth's ratio of iron to magnesium silicate. The orbital eccentricities of LHS 1140 b and c are consistent with circular orbits and constrained to be below 0.06 and 0.31, respectively, with 90% confidence. Because the orbits of the two planets are co-planar and because we know from previous analyses of Kepler data that compact systems of small planets orbiting M dwarfs are commonplace, a search for more transiting planets in the LHS 1140 system could be fruitful. LHS 1140 c is one of the few known nearby terrestrial planets whose atmosphere could be studied with the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope.

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arXiv2018

Evidence for a Large Exomoon Orbiting Kepler-1625b

Exomoons are the natural satellites of planets orbiting stars outside our solar system, of which there are currently no confirmed examples. We present new observations of a candidate exomoon associated with Kepler-1625b using the Hubble Space Telescope to validate or refute the moon's presence. We find evidence in favor of the moon hypothesis, based on timing deviations and a flux decrement from the star consistent with a large transiting exomoon. Self-consistent photodynamical modeling suggests that the planet is likely several Jupiter masses, while the exomoon has a mass and radius similar to Neptune. Since our inference is dominated by a single but highly precise Hubble epoch, we advocate for future monitoring of the system to check model predictions and confirm repetition of the moon-like signal.

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arXiv2018

On the detectability of transiting planets orbiting white dwarfs using LSST

White dwarfs are one of the few types of stellar objects for which we know almost nothing about the possible existence of companion planets. Recent evidence for metal contaminated atmospheres, circumstellar debris disks and transiting planetary debris all indicate that planets may be likely. However, white dwarf transit surveys are challenging due to the intrinsic faintness of such objects, the short timescale of the transits and the low transit probabilities due to their compact radii. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) offers a remedy to these problems as a deep, half-sky survey with fast exposures encompassing approximately 10 million white dwarfs with $r<24.5$ apparent magnitude. We simulate LSST photometric observations of 3.5 million white dwarfs over a ten-year period and calculate the detectability of companion planets with $P<10$ d via transits. We find typical detection rates in the range of $5 \times 10^{-6}$ to $4 \times 10^{-4}$ for Ceres-sized bodies to Earth-sized worlds, yielding $\sim 50$ to $4\,000$ detections for a 100% occurrence rate of each. For terrestrial planets in the continuously habitable zone, we find detection rates of $\sim 10^{-3}$ indicating that LSST would reveal hundreds of such worlds for occurrence rates in the range of 1% to 10%.

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arXiv2018

Jupiter Analogues Orbit Stars with an Average Metallicity Close to that of the Sun

Jupiter played an important role in determining the structure and configuration of the Solar System. Whereas hot-Jupiter type exoplanets preferentially form around metal-rich stars, the conditions required for the formation of planets with masses, orbits and eccentricities comparable to Jupiter (Jupiter analogues) are unknown. Using spectroscopic metallicities, we show that stars hosting Jupiter analogues have an average metallicity close to solar, in contrast to their hot-Jupiter and eccentric cool Jupiter counterparts, which orbit stars with super-solar metallicities. Furthermore, the eccentricities of Jupiter analogues increase with host star metallicity, suggesting that planet-planet scatterings producing highly eccentric cool Jupiters could be more common in metal-rich environments. To investigate a possible explanation for these metallicity trends, we compare the observations to numerical simulations, which indicate that metal-rich stars typically form multiple Jupiters, leading to planet-planet interactions and, hence, a prevalence of either eccentric cool Jupiters or hot-Jupiters with circularized orbits. Although the samples are small and exhibit variations in their metallicities, suggesting that numerous processes other than metallicity affect the formation of planetary systems, the data in hand suggests that Jupiter analogues and terrestrial-sized planets form around stars with average metallicities close to solar, whereas high metallicity systems preferentially host eccentric cool Jupiter or hot-Jupiters, indicating higher metallicity systems may not be favorable for the formation of planetary systems akin to the Solar System.

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arXiv2018

Finding Mountains with Molehills: The Detectability of Exotopography

Mountain ranges, volcanoes, trenches, and craters are common on rocky bodies throughout the Solar System, and we might we expect the same for rocky exoplanets. With ever larger telescopes under design and a growing need to not just detect planets but also to characterize them, it is timely to consider whether there is any prospect of remotely detecting exoplanet topography in the coming decades. To test this, we devised a novel yet simple approach to detect and quantify topographical features on the surfaces of exoplanets using transit light curves. If a planet rotates as it transits its parent star, its changing silhouette yields a time-varying transit depth, which can be observed as an apparent and anomalous increase in the photometric scatter. Using elevation data for several rocky bodies in our solar system, we quantify each world's surface integrated relief with a "bumpiness" factor, and calculate the corresponding photometric scatter expected during a transit. Here we describe the kinds of observations that would be necessary to detect topography in the ideal case of Mars transiting a nearby white dwarf star. If such systems have a conservative occurrence rate of 10%, we estimate that the upcoming Colossus or OWL telescopes would be able to detect topography with <20 hours of observing time, which corresponds to ~400 transits with a duration of 2 minutes and orbital period of ~10 hours.

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arXiv2017

Relativistic Light Sails

One proposed method for spacecraft to reach nearby stars is by accelerating sails using either solar radiation pressure or directed energy. This idea constitutes the thesis behind the Breakthrough Starshot project, which aims to accelerate a gram-mass spacecraft up to one-fifth the speed of light towards Proxima Centauri. For such a case, the combination of the sail's low mass and relativistic velocity render previous treatments formally incorrect, including that of Einstein himself in his seminal 1905 paper introducing special relativity. To address this, we present formulae for a sail's acceleration, first in response to a single photon and then extended to an ensemble. We show how the sail's motion in response to an ensemble of incident photons is equivalent to that of a single photon of energy equal to that of the ensemble. We use this 'principle of ensemble equivalence' for both perfect and imperfect mirrors, enabling a simple analytic prediction of the sail's velocity curve. Using our results and adopting putative parameters for Starshot, we estimate that previous relativistic treatments underestimate the spacecraft's terminal velocity by ~50m/s for the same incident energy, sufficient to miss a target by several Earth radii. Additionally, we use a simple model to predict the sail's temperature and diffraction beam losses during the laser firing period, allowing us to estimate that for firing times of a few minutes and operating temperatures below 300C (573K), Starshot will require a sail of which absorbs less than 1 in 260,000 photons.

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arXiv2017

HEK VI: On the Dearth of Galilean Analogs in Kepler and the Exomoon Candidate Kepler-1625b I

Exomoons represent an outstanding challenge in modern astronomy, with the potential to provide rich insights into planet formation theory and habitability. In this work, we stack the phase-folded transits of 284 viable moon hosting Kepler planetary candidates, in order to search for satellites. These planets range from Earth-to-Jupiter sized and from ${\sim}$0.1-to-1.0 AU in separation - so-called "warm" planets. Our data processing includes two-pass harmonic detrending, transit timing variations, model selection and careful data quality vetting to produce a grand light curve with an r.m.s. of 5.1 ppm. We find that the occurrence rate of Galilean-analog moon systems for planets orbiting between ${\sim}$0.1 and 1.0 AU can be constrained to be $η<0.38$ to 95% confidence for the 284 KOIs considered, with a 68.3% confidence interval of $η=0.16_{-0.10}^{+0.13}$. A single-moon model of variable size and separation locates a slight preference for a population of short-period moons with radii ${\sim}0.5$ $R_{\oplus}$ orbiting at 5-10 planetary radii. However, we stress that the low Bayes factor of just 2 in this region means it should be treated as no more than a hint at this time. Splitting our data into various physically-motivated subsets reveals no strong signal. The dearth of Galilean-analogs around warm planets places the first strong constraint on exomoon formation models to date. Finally, we report evidence for an exomoon candidate Kepler-1625b I, which we briefly describe ahead of scheduled observations of the target with the Hubble Space Telescope.

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arXiv2017

Masses of Kepler-46b, c from Transit Timing Variations

We use 16 quarters of the \textit{Kepler} mission data to analyze the transit timing variations (TTVs) of the extrasolar planet Kepler-46b (KOI-872). Our dynamical fits confirm that the TTVs of this planet (period $P=33.648^{+0.004}_{-0.005}$ days) are produced by a non-transiting planet Kepler-46c ($P=57.325^{+0.116}_{-0.098}$ days). The Bayesian inference tool \texttt{MultiNest} is used to infer the dynamical parameters of Kepler-46b and Kepler-46c. We find that the two planets have nearly coplanar and circular orbits, with eccentricities $\simeq 0.03$ somewhat higher than previously estimated. The masses of the two planets are found to be $M_{b}=0.885^{+0.374}_{-0.343}$ and $M_{c}=0.362^{+0.016}_{-0.016}$ Jupiter masses, with $M_{b}$ being determined here from TTVs for the first time. Due to the precession of its orbital plane, Kepler-46c should start transiting its host star in a few decades from now.

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arXiv2016

No Conclusive Evidence for Transits of Proxima b in MOST photometry

The analysis of Proxima Centauri's radial velocities recently led Anglada-Escudé et al. (2016) to claim the presence of a low mass planet orbiting the Sun's nearest star once every 11.2 days. Although the a-priori probability that Proxima b transits its parent star is just 1.5%, the potential impact of such a discovery would be considerable. Independent of recent radial velocity efforts, we observed Proxima Centauri for 12.5 days in 2014 and 31 days in 2015 with the MOST space telescope. We report here that we cannot make a compelling case that Proxima b transits in our precise photometric time series. Imposing an informative prior on the period and phase, we do detect a candidate signal with the expected depth. However, perturbing the phase prior across 100 evenly spaced intervals reveals one strong false-positive and one weaker instance. We estimate a false-positive rate of at least a few percent and a much higher false-negative rate of 20-40%, likely caused by the very high flare rate of Proxima Centauri. Comparing our candidate signal to HATSouth ground-based photometry reveals that the signal is somewhat, but not conclusively, disfavored (1-2 sigmas) leading us to argue that the signal is most likely spurious. We expect that infrared photometric follow-up could more conclusively test the existence of this candidate signal, owing to the suppression of flare activity and the impressive infrared brightness of the parent star.

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arXiv2016

Transit Clairvoyance: Enhancing TESS follow-up using artificial neural networks

The upcoming TESS mission is expected to find thousands of transiting planets around bright stars, yet for three-quarters of the fields observed the temporal coverage will limit discoveries to planets with orbital periods below 13.7 days. From the Kepler catalog, the mean probability of these short-period transiting planets having additional longer period transiters (which would be missed by TESS) is 18%, a value ten times higher than the average star. In this work, we show how this probability is not uniform but functionally dependent upon the properties of the observed short-period transiters, ranging from less than 1% up to over 50%. Using artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on the Kepler catalog and making careful feature selection to account for the differing sensitivity of TESS, we are able to predict the most likely short-period transiters to be accompanied by additional transiters. Through cross-validation, we predict that a targeted, optimized TESS transit and/or radial velocity follow-up program using our trained ANN would have a discovery yield improved by a factor of two. Our work enables a near-optimal follow-up strategy for surveys following TESS targets for additional planets, improving the science yield derived from TESS and particularly beneficial in the search for habitable-zone transiting worlds.

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arXiv2016

Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds

Mass and radius are two of the most fundamental properties of an astronomical object. Increasingly, new planet discoveries are being announced with a measurement of one of these terms, but not both. This has led to a growing need to forecast the missing quantity using the other, especially when predicting the detectability of certain follow-up observations. We present am unbiased forecasting model built upon a probabilistic mass-radius relation conditioned on a sample of 316 well-constrained objects. Our publicly available code, Forecaster, accounts for observational errors, hyper-parameter uncertainties and the intrinsic dispersions observed in the calibration sample. By conditioning our model upon a sample spanning dwarf planets to late-type stars, Forecaster can predict the mass (or radius) from the radius (or mass) for objects covering nine orders-of-magnitude in mass. Classification is naturally performed by our model, which uses four classes we label as Terran worlds, Neptunian worlds, Jovian worlds and stars. Our classification identifies dwarf planets as merely low-mass Terrans (like the Earth), and brown dwarfs as merely high-mass Jovians (like Jupiter). We detect a transition in the mass-radius relation at $2.0_{-0.6}^{+0.7} M_\oplus$, which we associate with the divide between solid, Terran worlds and Neptunian worlds. This independent analysis adds further weight to the emerging consensus that rocky Super-Earths represent a narrower region of parameter space than originally thought. Effectively, then, the Earth is the Super-Earth we have been looking for.

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arXiv2016

MOST Observations of our Nearest Neighbor: Flares on Proxima Centauri

We present a study of white light flares from the active M5.5 dwarf Proxima Centauri using the Canadian microsatellite MOST. Using 37.6 days of monitoring data from 2014 and 2015, we have detected 66 individual flare events, the largest number of white light flares observed to date on Proxima Cen. Flare energies in our sample range from $10^{29}$-$10^{31.5}$ erg. The flare rate is lower than that of other classic flare stars of similar spectral type, such as UV Ceti, which may indicate Proxima Cen had a higher flare rate in its youth. Proxima Cen does have an unusually high flare rate given its slow rotation period, however. Extending the observed power-law occurrence distribution down to $10^{28}$ erg, we show that flares with flux amplitudes of 0.5% occur 63 times per day, while superflares with energies of $10^{33}$ erg occur ~8 times per year. Small flares may therefore pose a great difficulty in searches for transits from the recently announced 1.27 M_earth Proxima b, while frequent large flares could have significant impact on the planetary atmosphere.

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arXiv2016

Observational biases for transiting planets

Observational biases distort our view of nature, such that the patterns we see within a surveyed population of interest are often unrepresentative of the truth we seek. Transiting planets currently represent the most informative data set on the ensemble properties of exoplanets within 1 AU of their star. However, the transit method is inherently biased due to both geometric and detection-driven effects. In this work, we derive the overall observational biases affecting the most basic transit parameters from first principles. By assuming a trapezoidal transit and using conditional probability, we infer the expected distribution of these terms both as a joint distribution and in a marginalized form. These general analytic results provide a baseline against which to compare trends predicted by mission-tailored injection/recovery simulations and offer a simple way to correct for observational bias. Our results explain why the observed population of transiting planets displays a non-uniform impact parameter distribution, with a bias towards near-equatorial geometries. We also find that the geometric bias towards observed planets transiting near periastron is attenuated by the longer durations which occur near apoastron. Finally, we predict that the observational bias with respect to ratio-of-radii is super-quadratic, scaling as $(R_P/R_{\star})^{5/2}$, driven by an enhanced geometric transit probability and modestly longer durations.

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arXiv2016

A Cloaking Device for Transiting Planets

The transit method is presently the most successful planet discovery and characterization tool at our disposal. Other advanced civilizations would surely be aware of this technique and appreciate that their home planet's existence and habitability is essentially broadcast to all stars lying along their ecliptic plane. We suggest that advanced civilizations could cloak their presence, or deliberately broadcast it, through controlled laser emission. Such emission could distort the apparent shape of their transit light curves with relatively little energy, due to the collimated beam and relatively infrequent nature of transits. We estimate that humanity could cloak the Earth from Kepler-like broadband surveys using an optical monochromatic laser array emitting a peak power of about 30 MW for roughly 10 hours per year. A chromatic cloak, effective at all wavelengths, is more challenging requiring a large array of tunable lasers with a total power of approximately 250 MW. Alternatively, a civilization could cloak only the atmospheric signatures associated with biological activity on their world, such as oxygen, which is achievable with a peak laser power of just around 160 kW per transit. Finally, we suggest that the time of transit for optical SETI is analogous to the water-hole in radio SETI, providing a clear window in which observers may expect to communicate. Accordingly, we propose that a civilization may deliberately broadcast their technological capabilities by distorting their transit to an artificial shape, which serves as both a SETI beacon and a medium for data transmission. Such signatures could be readily searched in the archival data of transit surveys.

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arXiv2016

A Transiting Jupiter Analog

Decadal-long radial velocity surveys have recently started to discover analogs to the most influential planet of our solar system, Jupiter. Detecting and characterizing these worlds is expected to shape our understanding of our uniqueness in the cosmos. Despite the great successes of recent transit surveys, Jupiter analogs represent a terra incognita, owing to the strong intrinsic bias of this method against long orbital periods. We here report on the first validated transiting Jupiter analog, Kepler-167e (KOI-490.02), discovered using Kepler archival photometry orbiting the K4-dwarf KIC-3239945. With a radius of $(0.91\pm0.02)$ $R_{\mathrm{Jup}}$, a low orbital eccentricity ($0.06_{-0.04}^{+0.10}$) and an equilibrium temperature of $(131\pm3)$ K, Kepler-167e bears many of the basic hallmarks of Jupiter. Kepler-167e is accompanied by three Super-Earths on compact orbits, which we also validate, leaving a large cavity of transiting worlds around the habitable-zone. With two transits and continuous photometric coverage, we are able to uniquely and precisely measure the orbital period of this post snow-line planet ($1071.2323\pm0.0006$ d), paving the way for follow-up of this $K=11.8$ mag target.

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arXiv2015

Efficient, uninformative sampling of limb-darkening coefficients for a three-parameter law

Stellar limb-darkening impacts a wide range of astronomical measurements. The accuracy to which it is modelled limits the accuracy in any covariant parameters of interest, such as the radius of a transiting planet. With the ever growing availability of precise observations and the importance of robust estimates of astrophysical parameters, an emerging trend has been to freely fit the limb-darkening coefficients (LDCs) describing a limb-darkening law of choice, in order to propagate our ignorance of the true intensity profile. In practice, this approach has been limited to two-parameter limb-darkening laws, such as the quadratic law, due to the relative ease of sampling the physically allowed range of LDCs. Here, we provide a highly efficient method for sampling LDCs describing a more accurate three-parameter non-linear law. We first derive analytic criteria which can quickly test if a set of LDCs are physical, although naive sampling with these criteria leads to an acceptance rate less than 1%. We then show that the loci of allowed LDCs can be transformed into a cone-like volume, from which we are able to draw uniform samples. We show that samples drawn uniformly from the conal region are physically valid in 97.3% of realizations and encompass 94.4% of the volume of allowed parameter space. We provide Python and Fortran code (LDC3) to sample from this region (and perform the reverse calculation) at https://github.com/davidkipping/LDC3, which also includes a subroutine to efficiently test whether a sample is physically valid or not.

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arXiv2015

The Hunt for Exomoons with Kepler (HEK): V. A Survey of 41 Planetary Candidates for Exomoons

We present a survey of 41 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) for exomoons using Bayesian photodynamics, more than tripling the number of KOIs surveyed with this technique. We find no compelling evidence for exomoons although thirteen KOIs yield spurious detections driven by instrumental artifacts, stellar activity and/or perturbations from unseen bodies. Regarding the latter, we find seven KOIs exhibiting >5 sigma evidence of transit timing variations, including the 'mega-Earth' Kepler-10c, likely indicating an additional planet in that system. We exploit the moderately large sample of 57 unique KOIs surveyed to date to infer several useful statistics. For example, although there is a diverse range in sensitivities, we find that we are sensitive to Pluto-Charon mass-ratio systems for ~40% of KOIs studied and Earth-Moon mass-ratios for 1 in 8 cases. In terms of absolute mass, our limits probe down to 1.7 Ganymede masses, with a sensitivity to Earth-mass moons for 1 in 3 cases studied and to the smallest moons capable of sustaining an Earth-like atmosphere (0.3 Earth masses) for 1 in 4. Despite the lack of positive detections to date, we caution against drawing conclusions yet, since our most interesting objects remain under analysis. Finally, we point out that had we searched for the photometric transit signals of exomoons alone, rather than using photodynamics, we estimate that 1 in 4 KOIs would have erroneously been concluded to harbor exomoons due to residual time correlated noise in the Kepler data, posing a serious problem for alternative methods.

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