arXiv subjects

David Martens

Publications and source records attributed to David Martens.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

LLM Consumer Behavior Theory: Foundations of a Novel Research Field

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents that make consumption decisions on behalf of users. This shift raises fundamental questions for consumer theory, which has traditionally modeled humans as the primary decision-makers. In this paper, we introduce LLM Consumer Behavior Theory, a new field of study concerned with analyzing consumer behavior in agentic markets. Drawing on classical and behavioral economics alongside recent advances in Natural Language Processing, we formalize how human preferences are reflected and acted upon by LLM-based agents, and how agent-level decisions aggregate into market demand. We unify previously fragmented literature on LLM decision-making, human behavior simulation, and preference elicitation under a common economic lens, highlighting where assumptions, such as rationality and heterogeneity, may fail in agentic markets. Rather than providing empirical validation, this paper outlines the scope of LLM consumer behavior and identifies open research questions related to alignment, preference representation, and market dynamics.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Foundation Models for Credit Risk Prediction: A Game Changer?

Predictive models play a pivotal role in credit risk management, guiding critical decisions through accurate estimation of default probabilities and losses. Extensive research has introduced new modeling techniques, complemented by large-scale benchmarking studies consolidating the state-of-the-art. Today, quasi-standards such as gradient-boosting models paired with SHAP explainers have emerged, yet continuous improvement of risk models remains a top priority. Concurrently, rapid advancements in AI, most notably large language models, have disrupted predictive modeling paradigms. Foundation models, pretrained on extensive datasets from diverse domains, have demonstrated remarkable performance by leveraging prior knowledge. While prevalent in natural language processing and computer vision, foundation models for tabular data have only recently emerged. We conjecture that pretraining on out-of-domain data is particularly beneficial in small-data settings, such as SME lending or specialized corporate portfolios, and may help address longstanding challenges including low default portfolios and class imbalance. This paper benchmarks recently proposed tabular foundation models against a broad set of competitors, including established and advanced machine learning techniques, across two core tasks: PD and LGD modeling. Our evaluation encompasses various datasets, performance indicators, and experimental conditions. We find that tabular foundation models generally perform best across datasets and tasks. Moreover, they offer significant improvement in predictive performance as dataset size shrinks. These results are remarkable given that the models are tested out-of-the-box, without hyperparameter tuning, ensuring ease of use and mitigating computational costs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

On the Importance and Evaluation of Narrativity in Natural Language AI Explanations

Explainable AI (XAI) aims to make the behaviour of machine learning models interpretable, yet many explanation methods remain difficult to understand. The integration of Natural Language Generation into XAI aims to deliver explanations in textual form, making them more accessible to practitioners. Current approaches, however, largely yield static lists of feature importances. Although such explanations indicate what influences the prediction, they do not explain why the prediction occurs. In this study, we draw on insights from social sciences and linguistics, and argue that XAI explanations should be presented in the form of narratives. Narrative explanations support human understanding through four defining properties: continuous structure, cause-effect mechanisms, linguistic fluency, and lexical diversity. We show that standard Natural Language Processing (NLP) metrics based solely on token probability or word frequency fail to capture these properties and can be matched or exceeded by tautological text that conveys no explanatory content. To address this issue, we propose seven automatic metrics that quantify the narrative quality of explanations along the four identified dimensions. We benchmark current state-of-the-art explanation generation methods on six datasets and show that the proposed metrics separate descriptive from narrative explanations more reliably than standard NLP metrics. Finally, to further advance the field, we propose a set of problem-agnostic XAI Narrative generation rules for producing natural language XAI explanations, so that the resulting XAI Narratives exhibit stronger narrative properties and align with the findings from the linguistic and social science literature.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

An Agentic Approach to Generating XAI-Narratives

Explainable AI (XAI) research has experienced substantial growth in recent years. Existing XAI methods, however, have been criticized for being technical and expert-oriented, motivating the development of more interpretable and accessible explanations. In response, large language model (LLM)-generated XAI narratives have been proposed as a promising approach for translating post-hoc explanations into more accessible, natural-language explanations. In this work, we propose a multi-agent framework for XAI narrative generation and refinement. The framework comprises the Narrator, which generates and revises narratives based on feedback from multiple Critic Agents on faithfulness and coherence metrics, thereby enabling narrative improvement through iteration. We design five agentic systems (Basic Design, Critic Design, Critic-Rule Design, Coherent Design, and Coherent-Rule Design) and systematically evaluate their effectiveness across five LLMs on five tabular datasets. Results validate that the Basic Design, the Critic Design, and the Critic-Rule Design are effective in improving the faithfulness of narratives across all LLMs. Claude-4.5-Sonnet on Basic Design performs best, reducing the number of unfaithful narratives by 90% after three rounds of iteration. To address recurrent issues, we further introduce an ensemble strategy based on majority voting. This approach consistently enhances performance for four LLMs, except for DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp. These findings highlight the potential of agentic systems to produce faithful and coherent XAI narratives.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Would a Large Language Model Pay Extra for a View? Inferring Willingness to Pay from Subjective Choices

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in applications such as travel assistance and purchasing support, they are often required to make subjective choices on behalf of users in settings where no objectively correct answer exists. We study LLM decision-making in a travel-assistant context by presenting models with choice dilemmas and analyzing their responses using multinomial logit models to derive implied willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. These WTP values are subsequently compared to human benchmark values from the economics literature. In addition to a baseline setting, we examine how model behavior changes under more realistic conditions, including the provision of information about users' past choices and persona-based prompting. Our results show that while meaningful WTP values can be derived for larger LLMs, they also display systematic deviations at the attribute level. Additionally, they tend to overestimate human WTP overall, particularly when expensive options or business-oriented personas are introduced. Conditioning models on prior preferences for cheaper options yields valuations that are closer to human benchmarks. Overall, our findings highlight both the potential and the limitations of using LLMs for subjective decision support and underscore the importance of careful model selection, prompt design, and user representation when deploying such systems in practice.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

On the Definition and Detection of Cherry-Picking in Counterfactual Explanations

Counterfactual explanations are widely used to communicate how inputs must change for a model to alter its prediction. For a single instance, many valid counterfactuals can exist, which leaves open the possibility for an explanation provider to cherry-pick explanations that better suit a narrative of their choice, highlighting favourable behaviour and withholding examples that reveal problematic behaviour. We formally define cherry-picking for counterfactual explanations in terms of an admissible explanation space, specified by the generation procedure, and a utility function. We then study to what extent an external auditor can detect such manipulation. Considering three levels of access to the explanation process: full procedural access, partial procedural access, and explanation-only access, we show that detection is extremely limited in practice. Even with full procedural access, cherry-picked explanations can remain difficult to distinguish from non cherry-picked explanations, because the multiplicity of valid counterfactuals and flexibility in the explanation specification provide sufficient degrees of freedom to mask deliberate selection. Empirically, we demonstrate that this variability often exceeds the effect of cherry-picking on standard counterfactual quality metrics such as proximity, plausibility, and sparsity, making cherry-picked explanations statistically indistinguishable from baseline explanations. We argue that safeguards should therefore prioritise reproducibility, standardisation, and procedural constraints over post-hoc detection, and we provide recommendations for algorithm developers, explanation providers, and auditors.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Aggregating Local Saliency Maps for Semi-Global Explainable Image Classification

Deep learning dominates image classification tasks, yet understanding how models arrive at predictions remains a challenge. Much research focuses on local explanations of individual predictions, such as saliency maps, which visualise the influence of specific pixels on a model's prediction. However, reviewing many of these explanations to identify recurring patterns is infeasible, while global methods often oversimplify and miss important local behaviours. To address this, we propose Segment Attribution Tables (SATs), a method for summarising local saliency explanations into (semi-)global insights. SATs take image segments (such as "eyes" in Chihuahuas) and leverage saliency maps to quantify their influence. These segments highlight concepts the model relies on across instances and reveal spurious correlations, such as reliance on backgrounds or watermarks, even when out-of-distribution test performance sees little change. SATs can explain any classifier for which a form of saliency map can be produced, using segmentation maps that provide named segments. SATs bridge the gap between oversimplified global summaries and overly detailed local explanations, offering a practical tool for analysing and debugging image classifiers.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Cash or Comfort? How LLMs Value Your Inconvenience

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed as near-autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) agents capable of making everyday decisions on behalf of humans. Although LLMs perform well on many technical tasks, their behaviour in personal decision-making remains less understood. Previous studies have assessed their rationality and moral alignment with human decisions. However, the behaviour of AI assistants in scenarios where financial rewards are at odds with user comfort has not yet been thoroughly explored. In this paper, we tackle this problem by quantifying the prices assigned by multiple LLMs to a series of user discomforts: additional walking, waiting, hunger and pain. We uncover several key concerns that strongly question the prospect of using current LLMs as decision-making assistants: (1) a large variance in responses between LLMs, (2) within a single LLM, responses show fragility to minor variations in prompt phrasing (e.g., reformulating the question in the first person can considerably alter the decision), (3) LLMs can accept unreasonably low rewards for major inconveniences (e.g., 1 Euro to wait 10 hours), and (4) LLMs can reject monetary gains where no discomfort is imposed (e.g., 1,000 Euro to wait 0 minutes). These findings emphasize the need for scrutiny of how LLMs value human inconvenience, particularly as we move toward applications where such cash-versus-comfort trade-offs are made on users' behalf.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

From What Ifs to Insights: Counterfactuals in Causal Inference vs. Explainable AI

Counterfactuals play a pivotal role in the two distinct data science fields of causal inference (CI) and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). While the core idea behind counterfactuals remains the same in both fields--the examination of what would have happened under different circumstances--there are key differences in how they are used and interpreted. We introduce a formal definition that encompasses the multi-faceted concept of the counterfactual in CI and XAI. We then discuss how counterfactuals are used, evaluated, generated, and operationalized in CI vs. XAI, highlighting conceptual and practical differences. By comparing and contrasting the two, we hope to identify opportunities for cross-fertilization across CI and XAI.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Exploring the generalization of LLM truth directions on conversational formats

Several recent works argue that LLMs have a universal truth direction where true and false statements are linearly separable in the activation space of the model. It has been demonstrated that linear probes trained on a single hidden state of the model already generalize across a range of topics and might even be used for lie detection in LLM conversations. In this work we explore how this truth direction generalizes between various conversational formats. We find good generalization between short conversations that end on a lie, but poor generalization to longer formats where the lie appears earlier in the input prompt. We propose a solution that significantly improves this type of generalization by adding a fixed key phrase at the end of each conversation. Our results highlight the challenges towards reliable LLM lie detectors that generalize to new settings.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Beware of "Explanations" of AI

Understanding the decisions made and actions taken by increasingly complex AI system remains a key challenge. This has led to an expanding field of research in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), highlighting the potential of explanations to enhance trust, support adoption, and meet regulatory standards. However, the question of what constitutes a "good" explanation is dependent on the goals, stakeholders, and context. At a high level, psychological insights such as the concept of mental model alignment can offer guidance, but success in practice is challenging due to social and technical factors. As a result of this ill-defined nature of the problem, explanations can be of poor quality (e.g. unfaithful, irrelevant, or incoherent), potentially leading to substantial risks. Instead of fostering trust and safety, poorly designed explanations can actually cause harm, including wrong decisions, privacy violations, manipulation, and even reduced AI adoption. Therefore, we caution stakeholders to beware of explanations of AI: while they can be vital, they are not automatically a remedy for transparency or responsible AI adoption, and their misuse or limitations can exacerbate harm. Attention to these caveats can help guide future research to improve the quality and impact of AI explanations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

How good is my story? Towards quantitative metrics for evaluating LLM-generated XAI narratives

A rapidly developing application of LLMs in XAI is to convert quantitative explanations such as SHAP into user-friendly narratives to explain the decisions made by smaller prediction models. Evaluating the narratives without relying on human preference studies or surveys is becoming increasingly important in this field. In this work we propose a framework and explore several automated metrics to evaluate LLM-generated narratives for explanations of tabular classification tasks. We apply our approach to compare several state-of-the-art LLMs across different datasets and prompt types. As a demonstration of their utility, these metrics allow us to identify new challenges related to LLM hallucinations for XAI narratives.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

GraphXAIN: Narratives to Explain Graph Neural Networks

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are a powerful technique for machine learning on graph-structured data, yet they pose challenges in interpretability. Existing GNN explanation methods usually yield technical outputs, such as subgraphs and feature importance scores, that are difficult for non-data scientists to understand and thereby violate the purpose of explanations. Motivated by recent Explainable AI (XAI) research, we propose GraphXAIN, a method that generates natural language narratives explaining GNN predictions. GraphXAIN is a model- and explainer-agnostic method that uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to translate explanatory subgraphs and feature importance scores into coherent, story-like explanations of GNN decision-making processes. Evaluations on real-world datasets demonstrate GraphXAIN's ability to improve graph explanations. A survey of machine learning researchers and practitioners reveals that GraphXAIN enhances four explainability dimensions: understandability, satisfaction, convincingness, and suitability for communicating model predictions. When combined with another graph explainer method, GraphXAIN further improves trustworthiness, insightfulness, confidence, and usability. Notably, 95% of participants found GraphXAIN to be a valuable addition to the GNN explanation method. By incorporating natural language narratives, our approach serves both graph practitioners and non-expert users by providing clearer and more effective explanations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Exposing Image Classifier Shortcuts with Counterfactual Frequency (CoF) Tables

The rise of deep learning in image classification has brought unprecedented accuracy but also highlighted a key issue: the use of 'shortcuts' by models. Such shortcuts are easy-to-learn patterns from the training data that fail to generalise to new data. Examples include the use of a copyright watermark to recognise horses, snowy background to recognise huskies, or ink markings to detect malignant skin lesions. The explainable AI (XAI) community has suggested using instance-level explanations to detect shortcuts without external data, but this requires the examination of many explanations to confirm the presence of such shortcuts, making it a labour-intensive process. To address these challenges, we introduce Counterfactual Frequency (CoF) tables, a novel approach that aggregates instance-based explanations into global insights, and exposes shortcuts. The aggregation implies the need for some semantic concepts to be used in the explanations, which we solve by labelling the segments of an image. We demonstrate the utility of CoF tables across several datasets, revealing the shortcuts learned from them.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

The Impact of Cloaking Digital Footprints on User Privacy and Personalization

Our online lives generate a wealth of behavioral records -'digital footprints'- which are stored and leveraged by technology platforms. This data can be used to create value for users by personalizing services. At the same time, however, it also poses a threat to people's privacy by offering a highly intimate window into their private traits (e.g., their personality, political ideology, sexual orientation). Prior work has proposed a potential remedy: The cloaking of users' footprints. That is, platforms could allow users to hide portions of their digital footprints from predictive algorithms to avoid undesired inferences. While such an approach has been shown to offer privacy protection in the moment, there are two open questions. First, it remains unclear how well cloaking performs over time. As people constantly leave new digital footprints, the algorithm might regain the ability to predict previously cloaked traits. Second, cloaking digital footprints to avoid one undesirable inference may degrade the performance of models for other, desirable inferences (e.g., those driving desired personalized content). In the light of these research gaps, our contributions are twofold: 1) We propose a novel cloaking strategy that conceals 'metafeatures' (automatically generated higher-level categories) and compares its effectiveness against existing cloaking approaches, and 2) we test the spill-over effects of cloaking one trait on the accuracy of inferences on other traits. A key finding is that the effectiveness of cloaking degrades over times, but the rate at which it degrades is significantly smaller when cloaking metafeatures rather than individual footprints. In addition, our findings reveal the expected trade-off between privacy and personalization: Cloaking an undesired trait also partially conceals other desirable traits.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2023

Tell Me a Story! Narrative-Driven XAI with Large Language Models

In many AI applications today, the predominance of black-box machine learning models, due to their typically higher accuracy, amplifies the need for Explainable AI (XAI). Existing XAI approaches, such as the widely used SHAP values or counterfactual (CF) explanations, are arguably often too technical for users to understand and act upon. To enhance comprehension of explanations of AI decisions and the overall user experience, we introduce XAIstories, which leverage Large Language Models to provide narratives about how AI predictions are made: SHAPstories do so based on SHAP explanations, while CFstories do so for CF explanations. We study the impact of our approach on users' experience and understanding of AI predictions. Our results are striking: over 90% of the surveyed general audience finds the narratives generated by SHAPstories convincing. Data scientists primarily see the value of SHAPstories in communicating explanations to a general audience, with 83% of data scientists indicating they are likely to use SHAPstories for this purpose. In an image classification setting, CFstories are considered more or equally convincing as the users' own crafted stories by more than 75% of the participants. CFstories additionally bring a tenfold speed gain in creating a narrative. We also find that SHAPstories help users to more accurately summarize and understand AI decisions, in a credit scoring setting we test, correctly answering comprehension questions significantly more often than they do when only SHAP values are provided. The results thereby suggest that XAIstories may significantly help explaining and understanding AI predictions, ultimately supporting better decision-making in various applications.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Manipulation Risks in Explainable AI: The Implications of the Disagreement Problem

Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems are increasingly used in high-stakes domains of our life, increasing the need to explain these decisions and to make sure that they are aligned with how we want the decision to be made. The field of Explainable AI (XAI) has emerged in response. However, it faces a significant challenge known as the disagreement problem, where multiple explanations are possible for the same AI decision or prediction. While the existence of the disagreement problem is acknowledged, the potential implications associated with this problem have not yet been widely studied. First, we provide an overview of the different strategies explanation providers could deploy to adapt the returned explanation to their benefit. We make a distinction between strategies that attack the machine learning model or underlying data to influence the explanations, and strategies that leverage the explanation phase directly. Next, we analyse several objectives and concrete scenarios the providers could have to engage in this behavior, and the potential dangerous consequences this manipulative behavior could have on society. We emphasize that it is crucial to investigate this issue now, before these methods are widely implemented, and propose some mitigation strategies.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Calculating and Visualizing Counterfactual Feature Importance Values

Despite the success of complex machine learning algorithms, mostly justified by an outstanding performance in prediction tasks, their inherent opaque nature still represents a challenge to their responsible application. Counterfactual explanations surged as one potential solution to explain individual decision results. However, two major drawbacks directly impact their usability: (1) the isonomic view of feature changes, in which it is not possible to observe \textit{how much} each modified feature influences the prediction, and (2) the lack of graphical resources to visualize the counterfactual explanation. We introduce Counterfactual Feature (change) Importance (CFI) values as a solution: a way of assigning an importance value to each feature change in a given counterfactual explanation. To calculate these values, we propose two potential CFI methods. One is simple, fast, and has a greedy nature. The other, coined CounterShapley, provides a way to calculate Shapley values between the factual-counterfactual pair. Using these importance values, we additionally introduce three chart types to visualize the counterfactual explanations: (a) the Greedy chart, which shows a greedy sequential path for prediction score increase up to predicted class change, (b) the CounterShapley chart, depicting its respective score in a simple and one-dimensional chart, and finally (c) the Constellation chart, which shows all possible combinations of feature changes, and their impact on the model's prediction score. For each of our proposed CFI methods and visualization schemes, we show how they can provide more information on counterfactual explanations. Finally, an open-source implementation is offered, compatible with any counterfactual explanation generator algorithm. Code repository at: https://github.com/ADMAntwerp/CounterPlots

cs.LG↗