arXiv subjects

David Nabergoj

Publications and source records attributed to David Nabergoj.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Population-Level Profiling of DSM-5 Depressive Symptoms Among Self-Reported ADHD and ASD Users on Twitter: An Exploratory Study Using Advanced NLP and Statistical Analysis

Background: Depression frequently co-occurs with ADHD and autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but population-level differences in symptom expression between these groups remain underexplored. Objective: We examined whether social media users with ADHD and ASD differ in how they express DSM-5 depressive symptoms in their tweets, and whether differences persist across varying levels of depressive-content filtering. Methods: We analysed 1,282,437 tweets from 792 users (622 ADHD; 170 ASD) with self-reported diagnoses on Twitter. Tweets were pre-filtered for depressive relevance using zero-shot NLI, then classified into nine DSM-5 symptoms using MentalRoBERTa fine-tuned on ReDSM5. Profiles were mean-centered per user. We applied L1-penalised logistic regression with cross-validation to distinguish ADHD from ASD users, complemented by Pearson correlations for symptom co-occurrence, and tested robustness across five filtering thresholds using bootstrapping. Results: MentalRoBERTa achieved macro-F1 of 0.901 on a held-out set, outperforming the original ReDSM5 benchmark. ADHD vs ASD classification yielded stable but modest performance (cross-validated ROC-AUC 0.645-0.653). Cognitive issues, sleep issues, appetite change, and fatigue leaned toward ADHD, while suicidal ideation and anhedonia leaned toward ASD. A largely shared symptom co-occurrence structure emerged between groups; no pair met our criterion for a robust disorder-specific difference. Conclusions: Population-level differences in depression-related language between ADHD and ASD social media users were consistently observed across thresholds, reflecting reproducibility rather than clinical validity. Findings are exploratory and do not establish differing phenomenology at the individual level.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

A General Approach to Visualizing Uncertainty in Statistical Graphics

We present a general approach to visualizing uncertainty in static 2-D statistical graphics. If we treat a visualization as a function of its underlying quantities, uncertainty in those quantities induces a distribution over images. We show how to aggregate these images into a single visualization that represents the uncertainty. The approach can be viewed as a generalization of sample-based approaches that use overlay. Notably, standard representations, such as confidence intervals and bands, emerge with their usual coverage guarantees without being explicitly quantified or visualized. As a proof of concept, we implement our approach in the IID setting using resampling, provided as an open-source Python library. Because the approach operates directly on images, the user needs only to supply the data and the code for visualizing the quantities of interest without uncertainty. Through several examples, we show how both familiar and novel forms of uncertainty visualization can be created. The implementation is not only a practical validation of the underlying theory but also an immediately usable tool that can complement existing uncertainty-visualization libraries.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Reducing normalizing flow complexity for MCMC preconditioning

Preconditioning is a key component of MCMC algorithms that improves sampling efficiency by facilitating exploration of geometrically complex target distributions through an invertible map. While linear preconditioners are often sufficient for moderately complex target distributions, recent work has explored nonlinear preconditioning with invertible neural networks as components of normalizing flows (NFs). However, empirical and theoretical studies show that overparameterized NF preconditioners can degrade sampling efficiency and fit quality. Moreover, existing NF-based approaches do not adapt their architectures to the target distribution. Related work outside of MCMC similarly finds that suitably parameterized NFs can achieve comparable or superior performance with substantially less training time or data. We propose a factorized preconditioning architecture that reduces NF complexity by combining a linear component with a conditional NF, improving adaptability to target geometry. The linear preconditioner is applied to dimensions that are approximately Gaussian, as estimated from warmup samples, while the conditional NF models more complex dimensions. Our method yields significantly better tail samples on two complex synthetic distributions and consistently better performance on a sparse logistic regression posterior across varying likelihood and prior strengths. It also achieves higher effective sample sizes on hierarchical Bayesian model posteriors with weak likelihoods and strong funnel geometries. This approach is particularly relevant for hierarchical Bayesian model analyses with limited data and could inform current theoretical and software strides in neural MCMC design.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Empirical evaluation of normalizing flows in Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Recent advances in MCMC use normalizing flows to precondition target distributions and enable jumps to distant regions. However, there is currently no systematic comparison of different normalizing flow architectures for MCMC. As such, many works choose simple flow architectures that are readily available and do not consider other models. Guidelines for choosing an appropriate architecture would reduce analysis time for practitioners and motivate researchers to take the recommended models as foundations to be improved. We provide the first such guideline by extensively evaluating many normalizing flow architectures on various flow-based MCMC methods and target distributions. When the target density gradient is available, we show that flow-based MCMC outperforms classic MCMC for suitable NF architecture choices with minor hyperparameter tuning. When the gradient is unavailable, flow-based MCMC wins with off-the-shelf architectures. We find contractive residual flows to be the best general-purpose models with relatively low sensitivity to hyperparameter choice. We also provide various insights into normalizing flow behavior within MCMC when varying their hyperparameters, properties of target distributions, and the overall computational budget.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Control, Transport and Sampling: Towards Better Loss Design

Leveraging connections between diffusion-based sampling, optimal transport, and stochastic optimal control through their shared links to the Schrödinger bridge problem, we propose novel objective functions that can be used to transport $ν$ to $μ$, consequently sample from the target $μ$, via optimally controlled dynamics. We highlight the importance of the pathwise perspective and the role various optimality conditions on the path measure can play for the design of valid training losses, the careful choice of which offer numerical advantages in implementation. Basing the formalism on Schrödinger bridge comes with the additional practical capability of baking in inductive bias when it comes to Neural Network training.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

pocoMC: A Python package for accelerated Bayesian inference in astronomy and cosmology

pocoMC is a Python package for accelerated Bayesian inference in astronomy and cosmology. The code is designed to sample efficiently from posterior distributions with non-trivial geometry, including strong multimodality and non-linearity. To this end, pocoMC relies on the Preconditioned Monte Carlo algorithm which utilises a Normalising Flow in order to decorrelate the parameters of the posterior. It facilitates both tasks of parameter estimation and model comparison, focusing especially on computationally expensive applications. It allows fitting arbitrary models defined as a log-likelihood function and a log-prior probability density function in Python. Compared to popular alternatives (e.g. nested sampling) pocoMC can speed up the sampling procedure by orders of magnitude, cutting down the computational cost substantially. Finally, parallelisation to computing clusters manifests linear scaling.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

Accelerating astronomical and cosmological inference with Preconditioned Monte Carlo

We introduce Preconditioned Monte Carlo (PMC), a novel Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference that facilitates efficient sampling of probability distributions with non-trivial geometry. PMC utilises a Normalising Flow (NF) in order to decorrelate the parameters of the distribution and then proceeds by sampling from the preconditioned target distribution using an adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) scheme. The results produced by PMC include samples from the posterior distribution and an estimate of the model evidence that can be used for parameter inference and model comparison respectively. The aforementioned framework has been thoroughly tested in a variety of challenging target distributions achieving state-of-the-art sampling performance. In the cases of primordial feature analysis and gravitational wave inference, PMC is approximately 50 and 25 times faster respectively than Nested Sampling (NS). We found that in higher dimensional applications the acceleration is even greater. Finally, PMC is directly parallelisable, manifesting linear scaling up to thousands of CPUs.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Predicting the Popularity of Games on Steam

The video game industry has seen rapid growth over the last decade. Thousands of video games are released and played by millions of people every year, creating a large community of players. Steam is a leading gaming platform and social networking site, which allows its users to purchase and store games. A by-product of Steam is a large database of information about games, players, and gaming behavior. In this paper, we take recent video games released on Steam and aim to discover the relation between game popularity and a game's features that can be acquired through Steam. We approach this task by predicting the popularity of Steam games in the early stages after their release and we use a Bayesian approach to understand the influence of a game's price, size, supported languages, release date, and genres on its player count. We implement several models and discover that a genre-based hierarchical approach achieves the best performance. We further analyze the model and interpret its coefficients, which indicate that games released at the beginning of the month and games of certain genres correlate with game popularity.

cs.LG↗