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David Nesvorný

Publications and source records attributed to David Nesvorný.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Some challenges for the long-term survival of Naiad, Neptune's innermost moon

The Naiad-Thalassa 73:69 mean-motion resonance implies these moons have co-existed for $\gtrsim$1 Gyr, raising the question of how they survived to the present day. We examine three challenges to Naiad's long-term survival: tidal disruption, heliocentric bombardment, and runaway collisional erosion by planetocentric debris. We constrain Naiad's internal strength requirements from its nominal density and shape, compute present-day impact rates on Neptune's inner moons from heliocentric bombardment, and use $N$-body simulations to model the fate of ejecta produced by non-disruptive impacts. First, Naiad's nominal density of ${\sim}0.8\text{ g cm}^{-3}$ and elongated shape suggest it cannot be held together by self-gravity alone, implying a cohesive strength of $\gtrsim10$ kPa to avoid tidal disruption, although this constraint is relaxed if Naiad has a higher density of ${\gtrsim}1.3\text{ g cm}^{-3}$. Second, we show that Naiad may have been disrupted in the last 1 Gyr by heliocentric bombardment, although this depends sensitively on the size-frequency distribution of Kuiper Belt objects at small sizes and on Naiad's catastrophic disruption threshold, both of which are poorly constrained. Third, and most notably, we find that even small, non-disruptive impacts can trigger runaway collisional erosion by planetocentric debris on extremely short timescales. Avoiding this ``sesquinary catastrophe'' requires that Naiad has a collisional strength of at least several MPa, which is difficult to reconcile with being a reaccumulated ``rubble pile'', leftover from the capture of Triton and the subsequent cataclysm of Neptune's primordial satellite system. Together, these results suggest that Naiad may be a physically unusual object among small ring-moons -- possibly a largely coherent, monolithic fragment -- and that our understanding of Neptune's inner satellite system leaves much to be explained.

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Size Constraints for the Pre-atmospheric Parent Bodies of Ordinary Chondrites

The study of S-complex near-Earth objects (NEOs), the parent bodies of ordinary chondrites, has shown that they are dominated by asteroids with LL chondrite-like compositions. This is surprising because among the three subtypes of ordinary chondrites (H, L, and LL), LL chondrites are the least common, representing only 10\% of all ordinary chondrite falls. This discrepancy has been attributed to the size of the NEOs studied, which are likely too large to be the immediate precursors of the meteorites that fall on Earth. To test this hypothesis, we obtained near-infrared spectra (0.7-2.5 $μ$m) of a group of objects with absolute magnitudes 20.0 $\leq$ $H$ $\leq$ 29.2 (sizes $\sim$4-343 m). The sample was divided into subgroups based on their $H$ value, and the composition of the asteroids was determined. We found that the dominance of LL chondrite-like objects disappears at sizes of $\sim$31-49 m. At this size range, asteroids with L chondrite-like compositions become dominant, matching the fraction of L chondrite meteorite falls. In contrast, the fraction of H chondrite-like NEOs was found to be much lower than the proportion of H chondrite falls, even among the smallest objects. We determined an upper size limit of $\sim$18 m for the parent bodies of these meteorites. The same upper limit was established for the pre-atmospheric parent bodies of LL chondrites. These results constitute the first observational evidence for a size dependence in the composition of S-complex NEOs.

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Distant TNO Inclinations as a Constraint on Primordial Cluster Perturbations in the Presence of Planet Nine

The Sun was almost certainly born in a stellar cluster, implying some degree of external forcing from neighboring stars during the Solar System's infancy. Published estimates of the strongest relevant stellar encounter, however, span a broad range, from relatively gentle perturbations to violently disruptive flybys. The modest inclination dispersion of the distant trans-Neptunian population has previously been used to argue that strong primordial encounters were unlikely and that the outer Solar System was not violently stirred at birth. In this work, we independently examine this constraint and ask whether this conclusion holds in the presence of Planet Nine. Because Planet Nine can reshape the distant trans-Neptunian population over gigayear timescales, the extent to which the present-day inclination distribution preserves a direct record of primordial cluster excitation is a priori unclear. To address this question, we compare long-term N-body integrations in which distant test particles begin either in strongly cluster-perturbed configurations or in comparatively quiescent ones, and are then evolved under the influence of the known giant planets, the Galactic tide, the effects of passing stars, and Planet Nine. We find that Planet Nine does not transform a highly excited primordial population into one resembling the observed low-inclination distant sample. Instead, comparisons between the simulated and the observed distant TNO populations indicate that the observed distant TNOs are most consistent with a relatively mildly perturbed birth environment, even in the presence of Planet Nine. If this comparatively low inclination dispersion is confirmed to be an intrinsic feature of the distant TNO population, rather than an artifact of observational bias, it constitutes a robust constraint on the severity of primordial cluster perturbations.

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Oxidation Constraints on Terrestrial Planet Formation from a Ring

The present-day solar system comprises meteorites with varying oxidation levels, derived from different parent bodies. Previous studies (e.g. Rubie et al., 2011) of the partitioning of siderophile elements between mantle and core during planetary growth and differentiation showed that Earth must accrete reduced bodies first and oxidised bodies later. Here we show that, if the terrestrial planets formed from a narrow ring of planetesimals, this condition is not fulfilled, whatever heliocentric gradient of oxidation is assumed in the ring. The reason is that planetary embryos quickly accrete planetesimals from the whole width of the ring, incorporating both reduced and oxidised material. The partially oxidised state of all planetary embryos leads to mismatches with the composition of the bulk silicate Earth (BSE) because oxygen fugacity strongly affects the partitioning of siderophile elements. We demonstrate that reproducing the BSE composition requires reduced and oxidised reservoirs to remain segregated until embryo formation is almost complete. The delivery of oxidised material to the terrestrial planet-forming ring towards the end of the disc's lifetime is therefore a key requirement of any successful dynamical model of terrestrial planet formation.

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Analysis of Karin and Koronis2 asteroid families: new findings and challenges

We use our home catalog of the asteroid proper elements to study the Karin family. The hierarchical clustering method provides formal identification with 3,863 members, but this set also includes objects from the neighboring Koronis2 and Kuitaisi families, as well as interlopers originating from the much older Koronis family. By tracking the trajectories of cluster objects backward in time, we identified 2,161 asteroids whose orbits converged with that of their parent body (832) Karin at $5.72\pm 0.09$ My ago ($95$\% C.L.). This method of calculating the family's age is based on a novel convergence metric that is directly related to the velocities at which fragments were ejected from (832) Karin. We analyze the extent to which members $\leq 1.5$ km in diameter had drifted in semimajor axis due to Yarkovsky thermal forces and find it reflects the tilt of their rotation poles away from the ecliptic, recording the influence of the YORP torque. Karin's size frequency distribution in the $\simeq(0.8-3)$ km range follows a power-law with a cumulative slope index $-3.20\pm 0.01$. Removing members of the Karin family from the original group, we examine the Koronis2 family, whose members are associated with (158) Koronis. We find it difficult for large members of the Koronis2 family to converge with the orbit of (158) Koronis within its previously estimated age of $7.6$ My. Achieving such convergence would require the Koronis2 family to be older than $10$ My, but our result must be verified with a direct numerical approach in the future.

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Col-OSSOS: Investigating the Origins of Different Surfaces in the Primordial Kuiper Belt

The Colours of the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (Col-OSSOS) measured the optical/NIR colours of a brightness-complete sample of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs). Like previous surveys, this one found a bimodal colour distribution in TNOs, categorised as red and very red. Additionally, this survey proposed an alternative surface classification scheme: FaintIR and BrightIR. Cold classical TNOs mostly have very red or FaintIR surfaces, while dynamically excited TNOs show a mixture of surfaces. This likely indicates that formation locations and proximity to the Sun influenced surface characteristics and color changes. Our study combines the data from Col-OSSOS with two dynamical models describing the formation of the Kuiper belt during Neptune's migration. We investigate the proposed surface-colour changing line and explore the distribution of different surfaces within the primordial disk. By comparing radial colour transitions across various scenarios, we explore the origins of surface characteristics and their implications within the context of BrightIR and FaintIR classifications. Moreover, we extend our analysis to examine the distribution of these surface classes within the present-day Kuiper Belt, providing insights into the configuration of the early solar system's planetesimal disk prior to giant planet migration. We find that the most likely primordial disk compositions are inner neutral / outer red (with transition $30.0^{+1.1}_{-1.2}$ au), or inner BrightIR / outer FaintIR (with transition $31.5^{+1.1}_{-1.2}$ au).

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A young progenitor for the most common planetary systems in the Galaxy

The Galaxy's most common known planetary systems have several Earth-to-Neptune-size planets in compact orbits. At small orbital separations, larger planets are less common than their smaller counterparts by an order of magnitude. The young star V1298 Tau hosts one such compact planetary system, albeit with four planets that are uncommonly large (5 to 10 Earth radii). The planets form a chain of near-resonances that result in transit-timing variations of several hours. Here we present a multi-year campaign to characterize this system with transit-timing variations, a method insensitive to the intense magnetic activity of the star. Through targeted observations, we first resolved the previously unknown orbital period of the outermost planet. The full 9-year baseline from these and archival data then enabled robust determination of the masses and orbital parameters for all four planets. We find the planets have low, sub-Neptune masses and nearly circular orbits, implying a dynamically tranquil history. Their low masses and large radii indicate that the inner planets underwent a period of rapid cooling immediately after dispersal of the protoplanetary disk. Still, they are much less dense than mature planets of comparable size. We predict the planets will contract to 1.5-4.0 Earth radii and join the population of super-Earths and sub-Neptunes that nature produces in abundance.

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Two-source terrestrial planet formation with a sweeping secular resonance

The models that most successfully reproduce the orbital architecture of the Solar System terrestrial planets start from a narrow annulus of material that grows into embryos and then planets. However, it is not clear how this ring model can be made consistent with the chemical structure of the inner Solar System, which shows a reduced-to-oxidized gradient from Mercury to Mars and a parallel gradient in the asteroid belt. We propose that there were two primary reservoirs in the early inner Solar System: a narrow, refractory enriched ring inside of 1 au, and a less massive, extended planetesimal disk outside of 1 au with oxidation states ranging from enstatite chondrites to ordinary chondrites. We show through a suite of N-body simulations that an inwardly sweeping secular resonance, caused by aerodynamic drag and perturbations from a mean-motion resonant Jupiter and Saturn, gathers the outer planetesimal disk into a narrow ring that migrates radially, forms Mars, and contributes oxidized material to proto-Earth. Remaining unaccreted planetesimals can be implanted into the asteroid belt as the parent bodies of aubrites and non-carbonaceous iron meteorites, while the most reduced material is not implanted and thus unsampled in the meteorite collection. This model explains the oxidation and isotopic gradients within the inner Solar System within the context of a low-viscosity, magnetic wind-driven disk.

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A Near-Earth Object Model Calibrated to Earth Impactors

The population of Earth-impacting meteoroids and its size-dependent orbital elements are key to understanding the origin of meteorites and informing on planetary defence efforts. Outstanding questions include the role of collisions in depleting meteoroids on highly evolved orbits and the relative importance of delivery resonances. Those depend on size, with current dynamical models considering only asteroids larger than 10m in diameter. Based on 1,202 sporadic meteoroids observed by the Global Fireball Observatory, we created a debiased model of the near-Earth meteoroid population in the 10g - 150kg in size (approximately 1cm - 0.5m) as they dynamically evolved from the main asteroid belt onto Earth-crossing orbits. The observed impact population is best matched with a collisional half-life decreasing from 3Myr for meteoroids of 0.6kg (7cm) or higher, to 1Myr below this size, extending to the model lower bound of 10g. Placing our results in context with near-Earth object models for larger sizes, we find that the inner main belt continues to dominate feeding the small 1m to 10m diameter population primarily via the $ν_6$ secular resonance and the 3:1J mean motion resonance. We also evaluated the potential significance of physical processes other than collisions on Earth-impacting meteoroids, such as low-perihelion disruptions from thermal stresses.

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The ejection velocities of interstellar objects signpost their progenitor system architectures

Interstellar objects (ISOs) ejected from planetary systems carry kinematic signatures of their formation environments. The properties of these velocity distributions govern the ISOs' propagation and dynamical evolution in the Galactic potential. We investigate how planetary system architecture influences ISO production during post-gas-disc dynamical instabilities using N-body simulations. We explore the ISO production outcomes of 2461 randomly generated systems spanning total system masses of 300-800 Earth masses and multiplicities of 3-7 planets. By integrating planets embedded in a disc of test particles for 10 Myr, we find that evolving systems can be broadly divided into two distinct classes based on their initial architectures. Catastrophic systems are characterized by high multiplicities and orbitally compact configurations, or by high-mass planets in systems with large mass asymmetries. These systems eject a large fraction of their planetesimals (median 59 percent) and, depending on the ejection pathway, produce high-speed ISOs (median 2.9 km/s). In contrast, quiet systems have lower masses and multiplicities and do not undergo significant orbital rearrangement, yet still eject a median of 28 percent of planetesimals at lower velocities (median 1.6 km/s). This dichotomy points to distinct ejection pathways, involving either violent global instabilities or more gradual, diffusive processes. Overall, we find that ISO ejection velocities are typically low, on the order of a few km/s. Although ISOs subsequently experience dynamical heating as they orbit the Galaxy, their velocity distributions retain signatures of their progenitor systems' architectures and histories, underscoring the potential use of ISOs in Galactic archaeology.

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Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Discovery Rates and Characterizations of Centaurs

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will start by the end of 2025 and operate for ten years, offering billions of observations of the southern night sky. One of its main science goals is to create an inventory of the Solar System, allowing for a more detailed understanding of small body populations including the Centaurs, which will benefit from the survey's high cadence and depth. In this paper, we establish the first discovery limits for Centaurs throughout the LSST's decade-long operation using the best available dynamical models. Using the survey simulator $\texttt{Sorcha}$, we predict a $\sim$7-12 fold increase in Centaurs in the Minor Planet Center (MPC) database, reaching $\sim$1200-2000 (dependent on definition) by the end of the survey - about 50$\%$ of which are expected within the first 2 years. Approximately 30-50 Centaurs will be observed twice as frequently as they fall within one of the LSST's Deep Drilling Fields (DDF) for on average only up to two months. Outside of the DDFs, Centaurs will receive $\sim$200 observations across the $\textit{ugrizy}$ filter range, facilitating searches for cometary-like activity through PSF extension analysis, as well as fitting light-curves and phase curves for color determination. Regardless of definition, over 200 Centaurs will achieve high-quality color measurements across at least three filters in the LSST's six filters. These observations will also provide over 300 well-defined phase curves in the $\textit{griz}$ bands, improving absolute magnitude measurements to a precision of 0.2 mags.

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A pre-flyby view on the origin of asteroid Donaldjohanson, a target of the NASA Lucy mission

The NASA Lucy mission is scheduled to fly-by the main belt asteroid (52246) Donaldjohanson on April 20, 2025. Donaldjohanson (DJ hereafter) is a member of the primitive (C-type class) Erigone collisional asteroid family located in the inner main belt in proximity of the source regions of asteroid (101955)~Bennu and (162173)~Ryugu, visited respectively by OSIRIS-REx and Hayabusa2 missions. In this paper we provide an updated model for the Erigone family age, and discuss DJ evolution resulting from non-gravitational forces (namely Yarkovsky and YORP), as well as its collisional evolution. We conclude the best-fit family age to be $\sim 155$~Myr, and that, on such timescales, both Yarkovsky and YORP effects may have affected the orbit and spin properties of DJ. Furthermore, we discuss how the NASA Lucy mission could provide independent insights on such processes, namely by constraining DJ shape, surface geology and cratering history.

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Orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of Hilda population

The Hilda population of asteroids is located in a large orbital zone of long-term stability associated with the Jupiter J3/2 mean motion resonance. They are a sister population of the Jupiter Trojans, since both of them are likely made up of objects captured from the primordial Kuiper belt early in the solar system history. Comparisons between the orbital and physical properties of the Hilda and Trojan populations thus represent a test of outer planet formation models. Here we use a decade of observations from the Catalina Sky Survey (G96 site) to determine the bias-corrected orbital and magnitude distributions of Hildas. We also identify collisional families and the background population by computing a new catalog of synthetic proper elements for Hildas. We model the cumulative magnitude distribution of the background population using a local power-law representation with slope $γ(H)$, where $H$ is the absolute magnitude. For the largest Hildas, we find $γ\simeq 0.5$ with large uncertainty due to the limited population. Beyond $H\simeq 11$, we find that $γ$ transitions to a mean value ${\bar γ}=0.32\pm 0.04$ with a slight dependence on $H$ (significantly smaller than Jupiter Trojans with ${\bar γ}=0.43\pm 0.02$). We find that members of identified collisional families represent more than $60$\% of the total population (both bias counts). The bias-corrected populations contain about the same number of Hildas within the families and the background for $H\leq 16$, but this number may increase to $60$\% families when their location in the orbital space is further improved in the future.

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The Debiased Near-Earth Object Population from ATLAS Telescopes

This work is dedicated to debias the Near-Earth Objects (NEO) population based on observations from the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescopes. We have applied similar methods used to develop the recently released NEO model generator (NEOMOD), once debiasing the NEO population using data from Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) G96 telescope. ATLAS is composed of four different telescopes. We first analyzed observational data from each of all four telescopes separately and later combined them. Our results highlight main differences between CSS and ATLAS, e.g., sky coverage and survey power at debiasing the NEO population. ATLAS has a much larger sky coverage than CSS, allowing it to find bright NEOs that would be constantly "hiding" from CSS. Consequently, ATLAS is more powerful than CSS at debiasing the NEO population for H $\lesssim$ 19. With its intrinsically greater sensitivity and emphasis on observing near opposition, CSS excels in the debiasing of smaller objects. ATLAS, as an all sky survey designed to find imminent hazardous objects, necessarily spends a significant fraction of time looking at places on the sky where objects do not appear, reducing its power for debiasing the population of small objects. We estimate a NEO population completeness of $\approx$ 88%$^{+3\%}_{-2\%}$ for H $<$ 17.75 and $\approx$ 36%$^{+1\%}_{-1\%}$ for H $<$ 22.25. Those numbers are similar to previous estimates (within error bars for H $<$ 17.75) from CSS, yet, around 3% and 8% smaller at their face values, respectively. We also confirm previous finding that the $ν_6$ secular resonance is the main source of small and faint NEOs at H = 28, whereas the 3:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter dominates for larger and brighter NEOs at H = 15.

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Self-Gravitational Dynamics Within the Inner Oort Cloud

The formation of the Inner Oort Cloud (IOC) - a vast halo of icy bodies residing far beyond Neptune's orbit - is an expected outcome of the solar system's primordial evolution within a stellar cluster. Recent models have shown that the process of early planetesimal capture within the trans-Neptunian region may have been sufficiently high for the cumulative mass of the Cloud to approach several Earth masses. In light of this, here we examine the dynamical evolution of the IOC, driven by its own self-gravity. We show that the collective gravitational potential of the IOC is adequately approximated by the Miyamoto-Nagai model, and use a semi-analytic framework to demonstrate that the resulting secular oscillations are akin to the von Zeipel-Lidov-Kozai resonance. We verify our results with direct $N$-body calculations, and examine the effects of IOC self-gravity on the long-term behavior of the solar system's minor bodies using a detailed simulation. Cumulatively, we find that while the modulation of perihelion distances and inclinations can occur within an observationally relevant range, the associated timescales vastly surpass the age of the sun, indicating that the influence of IOC self-gravity on the architecture of the solar system is negligible.

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Testing MOND on small bodies in the remote solar system

Modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND), which postulates a breakdown of Newton's laws of gravity/dynamics below some critical acceleration threshold, can explain many otherwise puzzling observational phenomena on galactic scales. MOND competes with the hypothesis of dark matter, which successfully explains the cosmic microwave background and large-scale structure. Here we provide the first solar-system test of MOND that probes the sub-critical acceleration regime. Using the Bekenstein-Milgrom AQUAL formulation, we simulate the evolution of myriads of test particles (planetesimals or comets) born in the trans-Neptunian region and scattered by the giant planets over the lifetime of the Sun to heliocentric distances of $10^2$-$10^5$ au. We include the effects of the Galactic tidal field and passing stars. While Newtonian simulations reproduce the distribution of binding energies of long-period and Oort-cloud comets detectable from Earth, MOND-based simulations do not. This conclusion is robust to plausible changes in the migration history of the planets, the migration history of the Sun, the MOND transition function, effects of the Sun's birth cluster, and the fading properties of long-period comets. For the most popular version of AQUAL, characterized by a gradual transition between the Newtonian and MOND regimes, our MOND-based simulations also fail to reproduce the orbital distribution of trans-Neptunian objects in the detached disk (perihelion > 38 au). Our results do not rule out some MOND theories more elaborate than AQUAL, in which non-Newtonian effects are screened on small spatial scales, at small masses, or in external gravitational fields comparable in strength to the critical acceleration.

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Orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of Jupiter Trojans

Jupiter Trojans (JTs) librate about the Lagrangian stationary centers L4 and L5 associated with this planet on a typically small-eccentricity and moderate-inclination heliocentric orbits. The physical and orbital properties of JTs provide important clues about the dynamical evolution of the giant planets in the early Solar System, as well as populations of planetesimals in their source regions. Here we use decade long observations from the Catalina Sky Survey (station G96) to determine the bias-corrected orbital and magnitude distributions of JTs. We distinguish the background JT population, filling smoothly the long-term stable orbital zone about L4 and L5 points, and collisional families. We find that the cumulative magnitude distribution of JTs (the background population in our case) has a steep slope for $H\leq 9$, followed with a moderately shallow slope till $H\simeq 14.5$, beyond which the distribution becomes even shallower. At $H=15$ we find a local power-law exponent $0.38\pm 0.01$. We confirm the asymmetry between the magnitude limited background populations in L4 and L5 clouds characterized by a ratio $1.45\pm 0.05$ for $H<15$. Our analysis suggests an asymmetry in the inclination distribution of JTs, with the L4 population being tighter and the L5 population being broader. We also provide a new catalog of the synthetic proper elements for JTs with an updated identification of statistically robust families (9 at L4, and 4 at L5). The previously known Ennomos family is found to consist of two, overlapping Deiphobus and Ennomos families.

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Origin and Evolution of Jupiter's Trojan Asteroids

The origin of the Jupiter Trojan asteroids has long been a mystery. Dynamically, the population, which is considerably smaller than the main asteroid belt, librates around Jupiter's stable L4 and L5 Lagrange points, 60 deg ahead and behind Jupiter. It is thought that these bodies were captured into these orbits early in solar system history, but any capture mechanism must also explain why the Trojans have an excited inclination distribution, with some objects reaching inclinations of 35 deg. The Trojans themselves, individually and in aggregate, also have spectral and physical properties that appear consistent with many small bodies found in the outer solar system (e.g., irregular satellites, Kuiper belt objects). In this review, we assemble what is known about the Trojans and discuss various models for their origin and collisional evolution. It can be argued that the Trojans are unlikely to be captured planetesimals from the giant planet zone, but instead were once denizens of the primordial Kuiper belt, trapped by the events taking place during a giant planet instability. The Lucy mission to the Trojans is therefore well positioned to not only answer questions about these objects, but also about their place in planet formation and solar system evolution studies.

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