arXiv subjects

David Nesvorny

Publications and source records attributed to David Nesvorny.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

EL meteorites do date the giant planet instability

In our recent work, we combined dynamical simulations, meteoritic data and thermal models as well as asteroid observations to argue that the current parent body of the EL meteorites was implanted into the asteroid belt not earlier than 60 Myr after the beginning of the Solar System and that the most likely capture mechanism was the giant planet orbital instability. In the study "The link between Athor and EL meteorites does not constrain the timing of the giant planet instability" that appeared in arXiv, Izidoro and collaborators argue that the implantation of Athor into the asteroid belt does not necessarily require that the giant planet orbital instability occurred at the implantation time. Here we provide further arguments that, in the end, the giant planet instability is still the most likely dynamical process to implant asteroid Athor into the asteroid main belt between 60 and 100 Myr after the beginning of the Solar System.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

NEOMOD 3: The Debiased Size Distribution of Near Earth Objects

Our previous model (NEOMOD2) for the orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) was calibrated on the Catalina Sky Survey observations between 2013 and 2022. Here we extend NEOMOD2 to include visible albedo information from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer. The debiased albedo distribution of NEOs can be approximated by the sum of two Rayleigh distributions with the scale parameters p_V,dark=0.03 and p_V,bright=0.17. We find evidence for smaller NEOs having (on average) higher albedos than larger NEOs; this is likely a consequence of the size-dependent sampling of different main belt sources. These inferences and the absolute magnitude distribution from NEOMOD2 are used to construct the debiased size distribution of NEOs. We estimate 830+/-60 NEOs with diameters D>1 km and 20,000+/-2,000 NEOs with D>140 m. The new model, NEOMOD3, is available via the NEOMOD Simulator -- an easy-to-operate code that can be used to generate user-defined samples (orbits, sizes and albedos) from the model.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Generation of Low-Inclination, Neptune-Crossing TNOs by Planet Nine

The solar system's distant reaches exhibit a wealth of anomalous dynamical structure, hinting at the presence of a yet-undetected, massive trans-Neptunian body - Planet 9. Previous analyses have shown how orbital evolution induced by this object can explain the origins of a broad assortment of exotic orbits, ranging from those characterized by high perihelia to those with extreme inclinations. In this work, we shift the focus toward a more conventional class of TNOs, and consider the observed census of long-period, nearly planar, Neptune-crossing objects as a hitherto-unexplored probe of the Planet 9 hypothesis. To this end, we carry out comprehensive $N-$body simulations that self-consistently model gravitational perturbations from all giant planets, the Galactic tide, as well as passing stars, stemming from initial conditions that account for the primordial giant planet migration and sun's early evolution within a star cluster. Accounting for observational biases, our results reveal that the orbital architecture of this group of objects aligns closely with the predictions of the P9-inclusive model. In stark contrast, the P9-free scenario is statistically rejected at a $\sim5\,σ$ confidence-level. Accordingly, this work introduces a new line of evidence supporting the existence of Planet 9 and further delineates a series of observational predictions poised for near-term resolution.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Accretion and Uneven Depletion of the Main Asteroid Belt

The main asteroid belt (MAB) is known to be primarily composed of objects from two distinct taxonomic classes, generically defined here as S- and C-complex. The former probably originated from the inner solar system (interior to Jupiter's orbit), while the latter probably from the outer solar system. Following this definition, (4) Vesta, a V-type residing in the inner MAB (a < 2.5 au), is the sole D > 500 km object akin to S-complex that potentially formed in-situ. This provides a useful constraint on the number of D > 500 km bodies that could have formed, or grown, within the primordial MAB. In this work we numerically simulate the accretion of objects in the MAB region during the time when gas in the protoplanetary disk still existed, while assuming different MAB primordial masses. We then accounted for the depletion of that population happening after gas disk dispersal. In our analysis, we subdivided the MAB into five sub-regions and showed that the depletion factor varies throughout the MAB. This results in uneven radial- and size-dependent depletion of the MAB. We show that the MAB primordial mass has to be $\lesssim$ 2.14$\times$10$^{-3}$ Earth masses. Larger primordial masses would lead to the accretion of tens-to-thousands of S-complex objects with D > 500 km in the MAB. Such large objects would survive depletion even in the outer sub-regions (a > 2.5 au), thus being inconsistent with observations. Our results also indicate that S-complex objects with D > 200-300 km, including (4) Vesta, are likely to be terrestrial planetesimals implanted into the MAB rather than formed in-situ.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

NEOMOD 2: An Updated Model of Near-Earth Objects from a Decade of Catalina Sky Survey Observations

Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) is a major survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). In a recent work, we used CSS observations from 2005-2012 to develop a new population model of NEOs (NEOMOD). CSS's G96 telescope was upgraded in 2016 and detected over 10,000 unique NEOs since then. Here we characterize the NEO detection efficiency of G96 and use G96's NEO detections from 2013-2022 to update NEOMOD. This resolves previous model inconsistencies related to the population of large NEOs. We estimate there are 936+/-29 NEOs with absolute magnitude H<17.75 (diameter D>1 km for the reference albedo p_V=0.14). The slope of the NEO size distribution for H=25-28 is found to be relatively shallow (cumulative index 2.6) and the number of H<28 NEOs (D>9 m) is determined to be (1.20+/-0.04)x10^7. Small NEOs have a different orbital distribution and higher impact probabilities than large NEOs. We estimate 0.034+/-0.002 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is near the low end of the impact flux range inferred from atmospheric bolide observations. Relative to a model where all NEOs are delivered directly from the main belt, the population of small NEOs detected by G96 shows an excess of low-eccentricity orbits with a=1--1.6 au that appears to increase with H. We suggest that the population of very small NEOs is boosted by tidal disruption of large NEOs during close encounters to the terrestrial planets. When the effect of tidal disruption is (approximately) accounted for in the model, we estimate 0.06+/-0.01 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is more in line with the bolide data.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Isotopic Trichotomy of Main Belt Asteroids from Implantation of Outer Solar System Planetesimals

Recent analyses of samples from asteroid (162173) Ryugu returned by JAXA's Hayabusa2 mission suggest that Ryugu and CI chondrites formed in the same region of the protoplanetary disk, in a reservoir that was isolated from the source regions of other carbonaceous (C-type) asteroids. Here we conduct $N$-body simulations in which CI planetesimals are assumed to have formed in the Uranus/Neptune zone at $\sim15$--25 au from the Sun. We show that CI planetesimals are scattered by giant planets toward the asteroid belt where their orbits can be circularized by aerodynamic gas drag. We find that the dynamical implantation of CI asteroids from $\sim15$--25 au is very efficient with $\sim 5$\% of $\sim 100$-km planetesimals reaching stable orbits in the asteroid belt by the end of the protoplanetary gas disk lifetime. The efficiency is reduced when planetesimal ablation is accounted for. The implanted population subsequently evolved by collisions and was depleted by dynamical instabilities. The model can explain why CIs are isotopically distinct from other C-type asteroids which presumably formed at $\sim5$--10 au.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Bayesian Inference on the Isotopic Building Blocks of Mars and Earth

Isotopic anomalies provide a means of probing the materials responsible for the formation of terrestrial planets. By analyzing new iron isotopic anomaly data from Martian meteorites and drawing insights from published data for O, Ca, Ti, Cr, Fe, Ni, Sr, Zr, Mo, Ru, and Si, we scrutinize potential changes in the isotopic composition of the material accreted by Mars and Earth during their formation. A Principal Component Analysis of isotopic anomalies in meteorites identifies three main clusters (forming the three parts of the isotopic trichotomy): CI, CC=CM+CO+CV+CR, and NC=EH+EL+H+L+LL. Our results suggest that Earth is primarily an isotopic mixture of ~92% E, 6 % CI, and <2% COCV and O. Mars, on the other hand, appears to be a mixture of ~65% E, 33% O, and <2% CI and COCV. We establish that Earth's CI contribution substantially increased during the latter half of its accretion. Mars began accreting a mix of O and E but predominantly accreted E later. Mars' changing isotopic makeup during accretion can be explained if it underwent gas-driven type I migration from its origin near the O - E boundary to a location well within the E region during the first few million years of solar system history. Earth's later increased CI contribution may be attributed to the stochastic impact of an interloper carbonaceous embryo that moved inside the inner solar system region while nebular gas was still present, and subsequently participated in the stage of chaotic growth. The recent findings of Si isotopic anomalies in enstatite chondrites when compared to terrestrial rocks likely stems from insufficient correction for high-temperature equilibrium isotopic fractionation. With appropriate adjustments for this influence, both the silicate Earth and enstatite chondrites exhibit comparable Si isotopic anomalies, reaffirming a genetic link between them.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Radial Distribution of Distant Trans-Neptunian Objects Points to Sun's Formation in a Stellar Cluster

The Scattered Disk Objects (SDOs) are a population of trans-Neptunian bodies with semimajor axes $50< a \lesssim 1000$ au and perihelion distances $q \gtrsim 30$ au. The detached SDOs with orbits beyond the reach of Neptune (roughly $q>35$~au) are of special interest here as an important constraint on the early evolution of the outer Solar System. The semimajor axis profile of detached SDOs at 50--500~au, as characterized from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), is radially extended, but previous dynamical models of Neptune's early migration produce a relatively compact profile. This problem is most likely related to Sun's birth environment in a stellar cluster. We perform new dynamical simulations that account for cluster effects and show that the orbital distribution of SDOs can be explained if a particularly close stellar encounter occurred early on (e.g., M dwarf with the mass $\simeq 0.2$ $M_\odot$ approaching the Sun at $\simeq 200$ au). For such an encounter to happen with a reasonably high probability the Sun must have formed in a stellar cluster with $ηT \gtrsim 10^4$ Myr pc$^{-3}$, where $η$ is the stellar number density and $T$ is the Sun's residence time in the cluster.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Impact Rates in the Outer Solar System

Previous studies of cometary impacts in the outer Solar System used the spatial distribution of ecliptic comets (ECs) from dynamical models that assumed ECs began on low-inclination orbits (<5 deg) in the Kuiper belt. In reality, the source population of ECs - the trans-Neptunian scattered disk - has orbital inclinations reaching up to ~30 deg. In Nesvorny et al. (2017), we developed a new dynamical model of ECs by following comets as they evolved from the scattered disk to the inner Solar System. The model was absolutely calibrated from the population of Centaurs and active ECs. Here we use our EC model to determine the steady-state impact flux of cometary/Centaur impactors on Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and their moons. Relative to previous work (Zahnle et al. 2003), we find slightly higher impact probabilities on the outer moons and lower impact probabilities on the inner moons. The impact probabilities are smaller when comet disruption is accounted for. The results provide a modern framework for the interpretation of the cratering record in the outer Solar System.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

The Collisional Evolution of the Primordial Kuiper Belt, Its Destabilized Population, and the Trojan Asteroids

The tumultuous early era of outer solar system evolution culminated when Neptune migrated across the primordial Kuiper belt (PKB) and triggered a dynamical instability among the giant planets. This event led to the ejection of approximately 99.9\% of the PKB (here called the destabilized population), heavy bombardment of the giant planet satellites, and the capture of Jupiter's Trojans. While this scenario has been widely tested using dynamical models, there have been fewer investigations into how the PKB, its destabilized population, and the Trojans experienced collisional evolution. Here we examined this issue for all three populations with the code Boulder. Our constraints included the size-frequency distributions (SFDs) of the Trojan asteroids and craters on the giant planet satellites. Using this combination, we solved for the unknown disruption law affecting bodies in these populations. The weakest ones, from an impact energy per mass perspective, were 20 m in diameter. Overall, collisional evolution produces a power-law-like shape for multikilometer Trojans and a wavy-shaped SFD in the PKB and destabilized populations. The latter can explain (i) the shapes of the ancient and younger crater SFDs observed on the giant planet satellites, (ii) the shapes of the Jupiter family and long-period comet SFDs, which experienced different degrees of collision evolution, and (iii) the present-day impact frequency of superbolides on Jupiter and smaller projectiles on Saturn's rings. Our model results also indicate that many observed comets, most which are smaller than 10 km in diameter, are likely to be gravitational aggregates formed by large-scale collision events.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

NEOMOD: A New Orbital Distribution Model for Near Earth Objects

Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are a transient population of small bodies with orbits near or in the terrestrial planet region. They represent a mid-stage in the dynamical cycle of asteroids and comets, which starts with their removal from the respective source regions -- the main belt and trans-Neptunian scattered disk -- and ends as bodies impact planets, disintegrate near the Sun, or are ejected from the Solar System. Here we develop a new orbital model of NEOs by numerically integrating asteroid orbits from main belt sources and calibrating the results on observations of the Catalina Sky Survey. The results imply a size-dependent sampling of the main belt with the $ν_6$ and 3:1 resonances producing $\simeq 30$\% of NEOs with absolute magnitudes $H = 15$ and $\simeq 80$\% of NEOs with $H = 25$. Hence, the large and small NEOs have different orbital distributions. The inferred flux of $H<18$ bodies into the 3:1 resonance can be sustained only if the main-belt asteroids near the resonance drift toward the resonance at the maximal Yarkovsky rate ($\simeq 2 \times 10^{-4}$ au Myr$^{-1}$ for diameter $D=1$ km and semimajor axis $a=2.5$~au). This implies obliquities $θ\simeq 0^\circ$ for $a<2.5$~au and $θ\simeq 180^\circ$ for $a>2.5$~au, both in the immediate neighborhood of the resonance (the same applies to other resonances as well). We confirm the size-dependent disruption of asteroids near the Sun found in previous studies. An interested researcher can use the publicly available NEOMOD Simulator to generate user-defined samples of NEOs from our model.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Early Bombardment of the Moon: Connecting the Lunar Crater Record to the Terrestrial Planet Formation

The lunar crater record features $\sim 50$ basins. The radiometric dating of Apollo samples indicates that the Imbrium basin formed relatively late -- from the planet formation perspective -- some $\simeq 3.9$ Ga. Here we develop a dynamical model for impactors in the inner solar system to provide context for the interpretation of the lunar crater record. The contribution of cometary impactors is found to be insignificant. Asteroids produced most large impacts on the terrestrial worlds in the last $\simeq 3$ Gyr. The great majority of early impactors were rocky planetesimals left behind at $\sim 0.5$--1.5 au after the terrestrial planet accretion. The population of terrestrial planetesimals was reduced by disruptive collisions in the first $t \sim 20$ Myr after the gas disk dispersal. We estimate that there were $\sim 4 \times 10^5$ diameter $d>10$ km bodies when the Moon formed (total planetesimal mass $\sim 0.015$ $M_{\rm Earth}$ at $t \sim 50$ Myr). The early bombardment of the Moon was intense. To accommodate $\sim 50$ known basins, the lunar basins that formed before $\simeq 4.35$--4.41 Ga must have been erased. The late formation of Imbrium occurs with a $\sim 15$--35\% probability in our model. About 20 $d>10$-km bodies were expected to hit the Earth between 2.5 and 3.5 Ga, which is comparable to the number of known spherule beds in the late Archean. We discuss implications of our model for the lunar/Martian crater chronologies, Late Veneer, and noble gases in the Earth atmosphere.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

TOI-2525 b and c: A pair of massive warm giant planets with a strong transit timing variations revealed by TESS

TOI-2525 is a K-type star with an estimated mass of M = 0.849$_{-0.033}^{+0.024}$ M$_\odot$ and radius of R = 0.785$_{-0.007}^{+0.007}$ R$_\odot$ observed by the TESS mission in 22 sectors (within sectors 1 and 39). The TESS light curves yield significant transit events of two companions, which show strong transit timing variations (TTVs) with a semi-amplitude of a $\sim$6 hours. We performed TTV dynamical, and photo-dynamical light curve analysis of the TESS data, combined with radial velocity (RV) measurements from FEROS and PFS, and we confirmed the planetary nature of these companions. The TOI-2525 system consists of a transiting pair of planets comparable to Neptune and Jupiter with estimated dynamical masses of $m_{\rm b}$ = 0.088$_{-0.004}^{+0.005}$ M$_{\rm Jup.}$, and $m_{\rm c}$ = 0.709$_{-0.033}^{+0.034}$ M$_{\rm Jup.}$, radius of $r_b$ = 0.88$_{-0.02}^{+0.02}$ R$_{\rm Jup.}$ and $r_c$ = 0.98$_{-0.02}^{+0.02}$ R$_{\rm Jup.}$, and with orbital periods of $P_{\rm b}$ = 23.288$_{-0.002}^{+0.001}$ days and $P_{\rm c}$ = 49.260$_{-0.001}^{+0.001}$ days for the inner and the outer planet, respectively. The period ratio is close to the 2:1 period commensurability, but the dynamical simulations of the system suggest that it is outside the mean motion resonance (MMR) dynamical configuration. TOI-2525 b is among the lowest density Neptune-mass planets known to date, with an estimated median density of $ρ_{\rm b}$ = 0.174$_{-0.015}^{+0.016}$ g\,cm$^{-3}$. The TOI-2525 system is very similar to the other K-dwarf systems discovered by TESS, TOI-2202 and TOI-216, which are composed of almost identical K-dwarf primary and two warm giant planets near the 2:1 MMR.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

The gateway from Centaurs to Jupiter-family Comets: thermal and dynamical evolution

It was recently proposed that there exists a "gateway" in the orbital parameter space through which Centaurs transition to Jupiter-family Comets (JFCs). Further studies have implied that the majority of objects that eventually evolve into JFCs should leave the Centaur population through this gateway. This may be naively interpreted as gateway Centaurs being pristine progenitors of JFCs. This is the point we want to address in this work. We show that the opposite is true: gateway Centaurs are, on average, more thermally processed than the rest of the population of Centaurs crossing Jupiter's orbit. Using a dynamically-validated JFC population, we find that only $\sim 20\%$ of Centaurs pass through the gateway prior to becoming JFCs, in accordance with previous studies. We show that more than half of JFC dynamical clones entering the gateway for the first time have already been JFCs -they simply avoided the gateway on their first pass into the inner solar system. By coupling a thermal evolution model to the orbital evolution of JFC dynamical clones, we find a higher than 50\% chance that the layer currently contributing to the observed activity of gateway objects has been physically and chemically altered, due to previously sustained thermal processing. We further illustrate this effect by examining dynamical clones that match the present-day orbits of 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1, P/2019 LD2 (ATLAS), and P/2008 CL94 (Lemmon).

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Formation of Lunar Basins from Impacts of Leftover Planetesimals

The Moon holds important clues to the early evolution of the Solar System. Some 50 impact basins (crater diameter D>300 km) have been recognized on the lunar surface, implying that the early impact flux was much higher than it is now. The basin-forming impactors were suspected to be asteroids released from an inner extension of the main belt (1.8-2.0 au). Here we show that most impactors were instead rocky planetesimals left behind at 0.5-1.5 au after the terrestrial planet accretion. The number of basins expected from impacts of leftover planetesimals largely exceeds the number of known lunar basins, suggesting that the first 200 Myr of impacts is not recorded on the lunar surface. The Imbrium basin formation (age 3.92 Gyr; impactor diameter d~100 km) occurs with a 15-35% probability in our model. Imbrium must have formed unusually late to have only two smaller basins (Orientale and Schrodinger) forming afterwards. The model predicts 20 d>10-km impacts on the Earth 2.5-3.5 Gyr ago (Ga), which is comparable to the number of known spherule beds in the late Archean.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Implications of Jupiter Inward Gas-Driven Migration for the Inner Solar System

The migration history of Jupiter in the sun's natal disk remains poorly constrained. Here we consider how Jupiter's migration affects small-body reservoirs and how this constrains its original orbital distance from the Sun. We study the implications of large-scale and inward radial migration of Jupiter for the inner solar system while considering the effects of collisional evolution of planetesimals. We use analytical prescriptions to simulate the growth and migration of Jupiter in the gas disk. We assume the existence of a planetesimal disk inside Jupiter's initial orbit. This planetesimal disk received an initial total mass and size-frequency distribution (SFD). Planetesimals feel the effects of aerodynamic gas drag and collide with one another, mostly while shepherded by the migrating Jupiter. Our main goal is to measure the amount of mass in planetesimals implanted into the main asteroid belt (MAB) and the SFD of the implanted population. We also monitor the amount of dust produced during planetesimal collisions. We find that the SFD of the planetesimal population implanted into the MAB tends to resemble that of the original planetesimal population interior to Jupiter. We also find that unless very little or no mass existed between 5 au and Jupiter's original orbit, it would be difficult to reconcile the current low mass of the MAB with the possibility that Jupiter migrated from distances beyond 15 au. This is because the fraction of the original disk mass that gets implanted into the MAB is very large. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results in terms of dust production to the so-called NC-CC isotopic dichotomy.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Asteroid Families: properties, recent advances and future opportunities

Collisions are one of the key processes shaping planetary systems. Asteroid families are outcomes of such collisions still identifiable across our solar system. The families provide a unique view of catastrophic disruption phenomena and have been in the focus of planetary scientists for more than a century. Most of them are located in the main belt, a ring of asteroids between Mars and Jupiter. Here we review the basic properties of the families, discuss some recent advances, and anticipate future challenges. This review pays more attention to dynamic aspects such as family identification, age determination, and long-term evolution. The text, however, goes beyond that. Especially, we cover the details of young families that see the major advances in the last years, and we anticipate it will develop even faster in the future. We also discuss the relevance of asteroid families for water-ice content in the asteroid belt and our current knowledge on links between families and main-belt comets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Dynamical Implantation of Blue Binaries in the Cold Classical Kuiper Belt

Colors and binarity provide important constraints on the Kuiper belt formation. The cold classical objects at radial distance r=42-47 au from the Sun are predominantly very red (spectral slope s>17%) and often exist as equal-size binaries (~30% observed binary fraction). This has been taken as evidence for the in-situ formation of cold classicals. Interestingly, a small fraction (~10%) of cold classicals is less red with s<17%, and these "blue" bodies are often found in wide binaries. Here we study the dynamical implantation of blue binaries from r<42 au. We find that they can be implanted into the cold classical belt from a wide range of initial radial distances, but the survival of the widest blue binaries -- 2001 QW322 and 2003 UN284 -- implies formation at r>30 au. This would be consistent with the hypothesized less-red to very-red transition at 30<r<40 au. For any reasonable choice of parameters (Neptune's migration history, initial disk profile, etc.), however, our model predicts a predominance of blue singles, rather than blue binaries, which contradicts existing observations. We suggest that wide blue binaries formed in situ at r=42-47 au and their color reflects early formation in a protoplanetary gas disk. The predominantly VR colors of cold classicals may be related to the production of methanol and other hydrocarbons during the late stages of the disk, when the temperature at 45 au dropped to 20 K and carbon monoxide was hydrogenated.

astro-ph.EP↗