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David Parkes

Publications and source records attributed to David Parkes.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

Guiding Worker Self-Selection in Crowdsourcing Contests: An LLM-Augmented Algorithmic Approach

Crowdsourcing platforms coordinate large pools of online workers who strategically choose which contests to enter and how much effort to invest. This self-selection can leave important contests with too few participants or too little effort, while workers may regret entering contests that leave them worse off than available alternatives. We study how platforms can recommend contests to workers using self-selection in Tullock contests (SSTC), a two-stage model in which workers first choose contests and then compete within them. We introduce GRAF, a greedy polynomial-time framework that constructs self-selection outcomes by ordering workers according to a score vector, with guarantees of zero worker regret and platform optimality in special cases of SSTC. Because effective orderings are difficult to design under worker heterogeneity, we propose LLMScore, an LLM-driven evolutionary framework that automatically designs GRAF's scoring algorithm. LLMScore addresses two challenges: jointly optimizing platform utility and worker satisfaction, and evaluating worker regret when exact computation is intractable. Trained only on small instances of one setting, it transfers to larger and structurally different settings; moreover, its output is human-readable code that platform operators can inspect and modify. Across 1,000 synthetic instances spanning four settings, GRAF with LLMScore consistently achieves high-quality, often near-optimal, outcomes with low worker regret, benefiting both platforms and workers.

cs.LG

Accelerated Preference Elicitation with LLM-Based Proxies

Bidders in combinatorial auctions face significant challenges when describing their preferences to an auctioneer. Classical work on preference elicitation focuses on query-based techniques inspired from proper learning--often via proxies that interface between bidders and an auction mechanism--to incrementally learn bidder preferences as needed to compute efficient allocations. Although such elicitation mechanisms enjoy theoretical query efficiency, the amount of communication required may still be too cognitively taxing in practice. We propose a family of efficient LLM-based proxy designs for eliciting preferences from bidders using natural language. Our proposed mechanism combines LLM pipelines and DNF-proper-learning techniques to quickly approximate preferences when communication is limited. To validate our approach, we create a testing sandbox for elicitation mechanisms that communicate in natural language. In our experiments, our most promising LLM proxy design reaches approximately efficient outcomes with five times fewer queries than classical proper learning based elicitation mechanisms.

cs.GT

Decongestion by Representation: Learning to Improve Economic Welfare in Marketplaces

Congestion is a common failure mode of markets, where consumers compete inefficiently on the same subset of goods (e.g., chasing the same small set of properties on a vacation rental platform). The typical economic story is that prices decongest by balancing supply and demand. But in modern online marketplaces, prices are typically set in a decentralized way by sellers, and the information about items is inevitably partial. The power of a platform is limited to controlling representations -- the subset of information about items presented by default to users. This motivates the present study of decongestion by representation, where a platform seeks to learn representations that reduce congestion and thus improve social welfare. The technical challenge is twofold: relying only on revealed preferences from the choices of consumers, rather than true preferences; and the combinatorial problem associated with representations that determine the features to reveal in the default view. We tackle both challenges by proposing a differentiable proxy of welfare that can be trained end-to-end on consumer choice data. We develop sufficient conditions for when decongestion promotes welfare, and present the results of extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data that demonstrate the utility of our approach.

cs.LG

Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030: The One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence

In September 2016, Stanford's "One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence" project (AI100) issued the first report of its planned long-term periodic assessment of artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on society. It was written by a panel of 17 study authors, each of whom is deeply rooted in AI research, chaired by Peter Stone of the University of Texas at Austin. The report, entitled "Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030," examines eight domains of typical urban settings on which AI is likely to have impact over the coming years: transportation, home and service robots, healthcare, education, public safety and security, low-resource communities, employment and workplace, and entertainment. It aims to provide the general public with a scientifically and technologically accurate portrayal of the current state of AI and its potential and to help guide decisions in industry and governments, as well as to inform research and development in the field. The charge for this report was given to the panel by the AI100 Standing Committee, chaired by Barbara Grosz of Harvard University.

cs.CY

Eliciting Social Knowledge for Creditworthiness Assessment

Access to capital is a major constraint for economic growth in the developing world. Yet those attempting to lend in this space face high defaults due to their inability to distinguish creditworthy borrowers from the rest. In this paper, we propose two novel scoring mechanisms that incentivize community members to truthfully report their signal on the creditworthiness of others in their community. We first design a truncated asymmetric scoring-rule for a setting where the lender has no liquidity constraints. We then derive a novel, strictly-proper VCG scoring mechanism for the liquidity-constrained setting. Whereas Chen et al. [2011] give an impossibility result for an analogous setting in which sequential reports are made in the context of decision markets, we achieve a positive result through appeal to interim beliefs about the reports of others in a setting with simultaneous reports.Moreover, the use of VCG methods allows for the integration of linear belief aggregation methods.

cs.GT

Modernizing Data Control: Making Personal Digital Data Mutually Beneficial for Citizens and Industry

We are entering a new "data everywhere-anytime" era that pivots us from being tracked online to continuous tracking as we move through our everyday lives. We have smart devices in our homes, on our bodies, and around our communities that collect data that is used to guide decisions that have a major impact on our lives - from loans to job interviews and judicial rulings to health care interventions. We create a lot of data, but who owns that data? How is it shared? How will it be used? While the average person does not have a good understanding of how the data is being used, they know that it carries risks for them and society. Although some people may believe they own their data, in reality, the problem of understanding the myriad ways in which data is collected, shared, and used, and the consequences of these uses is so complex that only a few people want to manage their data themselves. Furthermore, much of the value in the data cannot be extracted by individuals alone, as it lies in the connections and insights garnered from (1) one's own personal data (is your fitness improving? Is your home more energy efficient than the average home of this size?) and (2) one's relationship with larger groups (demographic group voting blocks; friend network influence on purchasing). But sometimes these insights have unintended consequences for the person generating the data, especially in terms of loss of privacy, unfairness, inappropriate inferences, information bias, manipulation, and discrimination. There are also societal impacts, such as effects on speech freedoms, political manipulation, and amplified harms to weakened and underrepresented communities. To this end, we look at major questions that policymakers should ask and things to consider when addressing these data ownership concerns.

cs.CY

The Rise of AI-Driven Simulators: Building a New Crystal Ball

The use of computational simulation is by now so pervasive in society that it is no exaggeration to say that continued U.S. and international prosperity, security, and health depend in part on continued improvements in simulation capabilities. What if we could predict weather two weeks out, guide the design of new drugs for new viral diseases, or manage new manufacturing processes that cut production costs and times by an order of magnitude? What if we could predict collective human behavior, for example, response to an evacuation request during a natural disaster, or labor response to fiscal stimulus? (See also the companion CCC Quad Paper on Pandemic Informatics, which discusses features that would be essential to solving large-scale problems like preparation for, and response to, the inevitable next pandemic.) The past decade has brought remarkable advances in complementary areas: in sensors, which can now capture enormous amounts of data about the world, and in AI methods capable of learning to extract predictive patterns from those data. These advances may lead to a new era in computational simulation, in which sensors of many kinds are used to produce vast quantities of data, AI methods identify patterns in those data, and new AI-driven simulators combine machine-learned and mathematical rules to make accurate and actionable predictions. At the same time, there are new challenges -- computers in some important regards are no longer getting faster, and in some areas we are reaching the limits of mathematical understanding, or at least of our ability to translate mathematical understanding into efficient simulation. In this paper, we lay out some themes that we envision forming part of a cohesive, multi-disciplinary, and application-inspired research agenda on AI-driven simulators.

cs.CY

Artificial Intelligence & Cooperation

The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will bring with it an ever-increasing willingness to cede decision-making to machines. But rather than just giving machines the power to make decisions that affect us, we need ways to work cooperatively with AI systems. There is a vital need for research in "AI and Cooperation" that seeks to understand the ways in which systems of AIs and systems of AIs with people can engender cooperative behavior. Trust in AI is also key: trust that is intrinsic and trust that can only be earned over time. Here we use the term "AI" in its broadest sense, as employed by the recent 20-Year Community Roadmap for AI Research (Gil and Selman, 2019), including but certainly not limited to, recent advances in deep learning. With success, cooperation between humans and AIs can build society just as human-human cooperation has. Whether coming from an intrinsic willingness to be helpful, or driven through self-interest, human societies have grown strong and the human species has found success through cooperation. We cooperate "in the small" -- as family units, with neighbors, with co-workers, with strangers -- and "in the large" as a global community that seeks cooperative outcomes around questions of commerce, climate change, and disarmament. Cooperation has evolved in nature also, in cells and among animals. While many cases involving cooperation between humans and AIs will be asymmetric, with the human ultimately in control, AI systems are growing so complex that, even today, it is impossible for the human to fully comprehend their reasoning, recommendations, and actions when functioning simply as passive observers.

cs.CY

Opinion Dynamics with Varying Susceptibility to Persuasion via Non-Convex Local Search

A long line of work in social psychology has studied variations in people's susceptibility to persuasion -- the extent to which they are willing to modify their opinions on a topic. This body of literature suggests an interesting perspective on theoretical models of opinion formation by interacting parties in a network: in addition to considering interventions that directly modify people's intrinsic opinions, it is also natural to consider interventions that modify people's susceptibility to persuasion. In this work, motivated by this fact we propose a new framework for social influence. Specifically, we adopt a popular model for social opinion dynamics, where each agent has some fixed innate opinion, and a resistance that measures the importance it places on its innate opinion; agents influence one another's opinions through an iterative process. Under non-trivial conditions, this iterative process converges to some equilibrium opinion vector. For the unbudgeted variant of the problem, the goal is to select the resistance of each agent (from some given range) such that the sum of the equilibrium opinions is minimized. We prove that the objective function is in general non-convex. Hence, formulating the problem as a convex program as in an early version of this work (Abebe et al., KDD'18) might have potential correctness issues. We instead analyze the structure of the objective function, and show that any local optimum is also a global optimum, which is somehow surprising as the objective function might not be convex. Furthermore, we combine the iterative process and the local search paradigm to design very efficient algorithms that can solve the unbudgeted variant of the problem optimally on large-scale graphs containing millions of nodes. Finally, we propose and evaluate experimentally a family of heuristics for the budgeted variation of the problem.

cs.SI

Weighted Tensor Completion for Time-Series Causal Inference

Marginal Structural Models (MSM) are the most popular models for causal inference from time-series observational data. However, they have two main drawbacks: (a) they do not capture subject heterogeneity, and (b) they only consider fixed time intervals and do not scale gracefully with longer intervals. In this work, we propose a new family of MSMs to address these two concerns. We model the potential outcomes as a three-dimensional tensor of low rank, where the three dimensions correspond to the agents, time periods and the set of possible histories. Unlike the traditional MSM, we allow the dimensions of the tensor to increase with the number of agents and time periods. We set up a weighted tensor completion problem as our estimation procedure, and show that the solution to this problem converges to the true model in an appropriate sense. Then we show how to solve the estimation problem, providing conditions under which we can approximately and efficiently solve the estimation problem. Finally we propose an algorithm based on projected gradient descent, which is easy to implement, and evaluate its performance on a simulated dataset.

cs.LG

How Do Fairness Definitions Fare? Examining Public Attitudes Towards Algorithmic Definitions of Fairness

What is the best way to define algorithmic fairness? While many definitions of fairness have been proposed in the computer science literature, there is no clear agreement over a particular definition. In this work, we investigate ordinary people's perceptions of three of these fairness definitions. Across two online experiments, we test which definitions people perceive to be the fairest in the context of loan decisions, and whether fairness perceptions change with the addition of sensitive information (i.e., race of the loan applicants). Overall, one definition (calibrated fairness) tends to be more preferred than the others, and the results also provide support for the principle of affirmative action.

cs.AI

Bayesian fairness

We consider the problem of how decision making can be fair when the underlying probabilistic model of the world is not known with certainty. We argue that recent notions of fairness in machine learning need to explicitly incorporate parameter uncertainty, hence we introduce the notion of {\em Bayesian fairness} as a suitable candidate for fair decision rules. Using balance, a definition of fairness introduced by Kleinberg et al (2016), we show how a Bayesian perspective can lead to well-performing, fair decision rules even under high uncertainty.

cs.LG

Playing the Wrong Game: Bounding Externalities in Diverse Populations of Agents

The robustness of multiagent systems can be affected by mistakes or behavioral biases (e.g., risk-aversion, altruism, toll-sensitivity), with some agents playing the "wrong game." This can change the set of equilibria, and may in turn harm or improve the social welfare of agents in the system. We are interested in bounding what we call the biased price of anarchy (BPoA) in populations with diverse agent behaviors, which is the ratio between welfare in the "wrong" equilibrium and optimal welfare. We study nonatomic routing games, and derive an externality bound that depends on a key topological parameter of the underlying network. We then prove two general BPoA bounds for games with diverse populations: one that relies on the network structure and the average bias of all agents in the population, and one that is independent of the structure but depends on the maximal bias. Both types of bounds can be combined with known results to derive concrete BPoA bounds for a variety of specific behaviors (e.g., varied levels of risk-aversion).

cs.GT

Fair Division via Social Comparison

In the classical cake cutting problem, a resource must be divided among agents with different utilities so that each agent believes they have received a fair share of the resource relative to the other agents. We introduce a variant of the problem in which we model an underlying social network on the agents with a graph, and agents only evaluate their shares relative to their neighbors' in the network. This formulation captures many situations in which it is unrealistic to assume a global view, and also exposes interesting phenomena in the original problem. Specifically, we say an allocation is locally envy-free if no agent envies a neighbor's allocation and locally proportional if each agent values her own allocation as much as the average value of her neighbor's allocations, with the former implying the latter. While global envy-freeness implies local envy-freeness, global proportionality does not imply local proportionality, or vice versa. A general result is that for any two distinct graphs on the same set of nodes and an allocation, there exists a set of valuation functions such that the allocation is locally proportional on one but not the other. We fully characterize the set of graphs for which an oblivious single-cutter protocol-- a protocol that uses a single agent to cut the cake into pieces --admits a bounded protocol with $O(n^2)$ query complexity for locally envy-free allocations in the Robertson-Webb model. We also consider the price of envy-freeness, which compares the total utility of an optimal allocation to the best utility of an allocation that is envy-free. We show that a lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{n})$ on the price of envy-freeness for global allocations in fact holds for local envy-freeness in any connected undirected graph. Thus, sparse graphs surprisingly do not provide more flexibility with respect to the quality of envy-free allocations.

cs.DS

Opinion Dynamics with Varying Susceptibility to Persuasion

A long line of work in social psychology has studied variations in people's susceptibility to persuasion -- the extent to which they are willing to modify their opinions on a topic. This body of literature suggests an interesting perspective on theoretical models of opinion formation by interacting parties in a network: in addition to considering interventions that directly modify people's intrinsic opinions, it is also natural to consider interventions that modify people's susceptibility to persuasion. In this work, we adopt a popular model for social opinion dynamics, and we formalize the opinion maximization and minimization problems where interventions happen at the level of susceptibility. We show that modeling interventions at the level of susceptibility lead to an interesting family of new questions in network opinion dynamics. We find that the questions are quite different depending on whether there is an overall budget constraining the number of agents we can target or not. We give a polynomial-time algorithm for finding the optimal target-set to optimize the sum of opinions when there are no budget constraints on the size of the target-set. We show that this problem is NP-hard when there is a budget, and that the objective function is neither submodular nor supermodular. Finally, we propose a heuristic for the budgeted opinion optimization and show its efficacy at finding target-sets that optimize the sum of opinions compared on real world networks, including a Twitter network with real opinion estimates.

cs.SI

Congestion Games with Distance-Based Strict Uncertainty

We put forward a new model of congestion games where agents have uncertainty over the routes used by other agents. We take a non-probabilistic approach, assuming that each agent knows that the number of agents using an edge is within a certain range. Given this uncertainty, we model agents who either minimize their worst-case cost (WCC) or their worst-case regret (WCR), and study implications on equilibrium existence, convergence through adaptive play, and efficiency. Under the WCC behavior the game reduces to a modified congestion game, and welfare improves when agents have moderate uncertainty. Under WCR behavior the game is not, in general, a congestion game, but we show convergence and efficiency bounds for a simple class of games.

cs.GT

On Sex, Evolution, and the Multiplicative Weights Update Algorithm

We consider a recent innovative theory by Chastain et al. on the role of sex in evolution [PNAS'14]. In short, the theory suggests that the evolutionary process of gene recombination implements the celebrated multiplicative weights updates algorithm (MWUA). They prove that the population dynamics induced by sexual reproduction can be precisely modeled by genes that use MWUA as their learning strategy in a particular coordination game. The result holds in the environments of \emph{weak selection}, under the assumption that the population frequencies remain a product distribution. We revisit the theory, eliminating both the requirement of weak selection and any assumption on the distribution of the population. Removing the assumption of product distributions is crucial, since as we show, this assumption is inconsistent with the population dynamics. We show that the marginal allele distributions induced by the population dynamics precisely match the marginals induced by a multiplicative weights update algorithm in this general setting, thereby affirming and substantially generalizing these earlier results. We further revise the implications for convergence and utility or fitness guarantees in coordination games. In contrast to the claim of Chastain et al.[PNAS'14], we conclude that the sexual evolutionary dynamics does not entail any property of the population distribution, beyond those already implied by convergence.

cs.LG