arXiv subjects

David Parkinson

Publications and source records attributed to David Parkinson.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2006

Quintessence reconstructed: new constraints and tracker viability

We update and extend our previous work reconstructing the potential of a quintessence field from current observational data. We extend the cosmological dataset to include new supernova data, plus information from the cosmic microwave background and from baryon acoustic oscillations. We extend the modelling by considering Padé approximant expansions as well as Taylor series, and by using observations to assess the viability of the tracker hypothesis. We find that parameter constraints have improved by a factor of two, with a strengthening of the preference of the cosmological constant over evolving quintessence models. Present data show some signs, though inconclusive, of favouring tracker models over non-tracker models under our assumptions.

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arXiv2006

Present and future evidence for evolving dark energy

We compute the Bayesian evidences for one- and two-parameter models of evolving dark energy, and compare them to the evidence for a cosmological constant, using current data from Type Ia supernova, baryon acoustic oscillations, and the cosmic microwave background. We use only distance information, ignoring dark energy perturbations. We find that, under various priors on the dark energy parameters, LambdaCDM is currently favoured as compared to the dark energy models. We consider the parameter constraints that arise under Bayesian model averaging, and discuss the implication of our results for future dark energy projects seeking to detect dark energy evolution. The model selection approach complements and extends the figure-of-merit approach of the Dark Energy Task Force in assessing future experiments, and suggests a significantly-modified interpretation of that statistic.

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arXiv2006

Cosmological model selection

Model selection aims to determine which theoretical models are most plausible given some data, without necessarily asking about the preferred values of the model parameters. A common model selection question is to ask when new data require introduction of an additional parameter, describing a newly-discovered physical effect. We review several model selection statistics, and then focus on use of the Bayesian evidence, which implements the usual Bayesian analysis framework at the level of models rather than parameters. We describe our CosmoNest code, which is the first computationally-efficient implementation of Bayesian model selection in a cosmological context. We apply it to recent WMAP satellite data, examining the need for a perturbation spectral index differing from the scale-invariant (Harrison-Zel'dovich) case.

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arXiv2006

The WMAP normalization of inflationary cosmologies

We use the three-year WMAP observations to determine the normalization of the matter power spectrum in inflationary cosmologies. In this context, the quantity of interest is not the normalization marginalized over all parameters, but rather the normalization as a function of the inflationary parameters n and r with marginalization over the remaining cosmological parameters. We compute this normalization and provide an accurate fitting function. The statistical uncertainty in the normalization is 3 percent, roughly half that achieved by COBE. We use the k-l relation for the standard cosmological model to identify the pivot scale for the WMAP normalization. We also quote the inflationary energy scale corresponding to the WMAP normalization.

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arXiv2006

A Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3

We present a Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3 data using our code CosmoNest. We focus on the density perturbation spectral index $n_S$ and the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$, which define the plane of slow-roll inflationary models. We find that while the Bayesian evidence supports the conclusion that $n_S \neq 1$, the data are not yet powerful enough to do so at a strong or decisive level. If tensors are assumed absent, the current odds are approximately 8 to 1 in favour of $n_S \neq 1$ under our assumptions, when WMAP3 data is used together with external data sets. WMAP3 data on its own is unable to distinguish between the two models. Further, inclusion of $r$ as a parameter weakens the conclusion against the Harrison-Zel'dovich case (n_S = 1, r=0), albeit in a prior-dependent way. In appendices we describe the CosmoNest code in detail, noting its ability to supply posterior samples as well as to accurately compute the Bayesian evidence. We make a first public release of CosmoNest, now available at http://www.cosmonest.org.

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arXiv2006

Model selection forecasts for the spectral index from the Planck satellite

The recent WMAP3 results have placed measurements of the spectral index n_S in an interesting position. While parameter estimation techniques indicate that the Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum n_S=1 is strongly excluded (in the absence of tensor perturbations), Bayesian model selection techniques reveal that the case against n_S=1 is not yet conclusive. In this paper, we forecast the ability of the Planck satellite mission to use Bayesian model selection to convincingly exclude (or favour) the Harrison-Zel'dovich model.

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arXiv2006

Measuring the effective complexity of cosmological models

We introduce a statistical measure of the effective model complexity, called the Bayesian complexity. We demonstrate that the Bayesian complexity can be used to assess how many effective parameters a set of data can support and that it is a useful complement to the model likelihood (the evidence) in model selection questions. We apply this approach to recent measurements of cosmic microwave background anisotropies combined with the Hubble Space Telescope measurement of the Hubble parameter. Using mildly non-informative priors, we show how the 3-year WMAP data improves on the first-year data by being able to measure both the spectral index and the reionization epoch at the same time. We also find that a non-zero curvature is strongly disfavored. We conclude that although current data could constrain at least seven effective parameters, only six of them are required in a scheme based on the Lambda-CDM concordance cosmology.

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arXiv2006

Model selection as a science driver for dark energy surveys

A key science goal of upcoming dark energy surveys is to seek time evolution of the dark energy. This problem is one of {\em model selection}, where the aim is to differentiate between cosmological models with different numbers of parameters. However, the power of these surveys is traditionally assessed by estimating their ability to constrain parameters, which is a different statistical problem. In this paper we use Bayesian model selection techniques, specifically forecasting of the Bayes factors, to compare the abilities of different proposed surveys in discovering dark energy evolution. We consider six experiments -- supernova luminosity measurements by the Supernova Legacy Survey, SNAP, JEDI, and ALPACA, and baryon acoustic oscillation measurements by WFMOS and JEDI -- and use Bayes factor plots to compare their statistical constraining power. The concept of Bayes factor forecasting has much broader applicability than dark energy surveys.

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arXiv2006

A Nested Sampling Algorithm for Cosmological Model Selection

The abundance of new cosmological data becoming available means that a wider range of cosmological models are testable than ever before. However, an important distinction must be made between parameter fitting and model selection. While parameter fitting simply determines how well a model fits the data, model selection statistics, such as the Bayesian Evidence, are now necessary to choose between these different models, and in particular to assess the need for new parameters. We implement a new evidence algorithm known as nested sampling, which combines accuracy, generality of application and computational feasibility, and apply it to some cosmological datasets and models. We find that a five-parameter model with Harrison-Zel'dovich initial spectrum is currently preferred.

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arXiv2005

Universal fitting formulae for baryon oscillation surveys

The next generation of galaxy surveys will attempt to measure the baryon oscillations in the clustering power spectrum with high accuracy. These oscillations encode a preferred scale which may be used as a standard ruler to constrain cosmological parameters and dark energy models. In this paper we present simple analytical fitting formulae for the accuracy with which the preferred scale may be determined in the tangential and radial directions by future spectroscopic and photometric galaxy redshift surveys. We express these accuracies as a function of survey parameters such as the central redshift, volume, galaxy number density and (where applicable) photometric redshift error. These fitting formulae should greatly increase the efficiency of optimizing future surveys, which requires analysis of a potentially vast number of survey configurations and cosmological models. The formulae are calibrated using a grid of Monte Carlo simulations, which are analyzed by dividing out the overall shape of the power spectrum before fitting a simple decaying sinusoid to the oscillations. The fitting formulae reproduce the simulation results with a fractional scatter of 7% (10%) in the tangential (radial) directions over a wide range of input parameters. We also indicate how sparse-sampling strategies may enhance the effective survey area if the sampling scale is much smaller than the projected baryon oscillation scale.

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arXiv2005

Designer Cosmology

We highlight the flexibility of the IPSO experiment-design framework by contrasting its application to CMB, weak lensing and redshift surveys. We illustrate the latter with a 10 parameter MCMC D-optimisation of a dark energy redshift survey. When averaged over a standard dark energy model space the resulting optimal survey typically has only one or two redshift bins, located at z<2. By exploiting optimisation we show how the statistical power of such surveys is significantly enhanced. Experiment design is aided by the richness of the figure of merit landscape which means one can impose secondary optimisation criteria at little cost. For example, one may choose either to maximally test a single model (such as ΛCDM) or to get the most general model-independent constraints possible (e.g. on a whole space of dark energy models). Such freedom points to a future where cosmological experiments become increasingly specialised and optimisation increasingly important.

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arXiv2005

Direct reconstruction of the quintessence potential

We describe an algorithm which directly determines the quintessence potential from observational data, without using an equation of state parametrisation. The strategy is to numerically determine observational quantities as a function of the expansion coefficients of the quintessence potential, which are then constrained using a likelihood approach. We further impose a model selection criterion, the Bayesian Information Criterion, to determine the appropriate level of the potential expansion. In addition to the potential parameters, the present-day quintessence field velocity is kept as a free parameter. Our investigation contains unusual model types, including a scalar field moving on a flat potential, or in an uphill direction, and is general enough to permit oscillating quintessence field models. We apply our method to the `gold' Type Ia supernovae sample of Riess et al. (2004), confirming the pure cosmological constant model as the best description of current supernovae luminosity-redshift data. Our method is optimal for extracting quintessence parameters from future data.

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arXiv2004

Testing for double inflation with WMAP

With the WMAP data we can now begin to test realistic models of inflation involving multiple scalar fields. These naturally lead to correlated adiabatic and isocurvature (entropy) perturbations with a running spectral index. We present the first full (9 parameter) likelihood analysis of double inflation with WMAP data and find that despite the extra freedom, supersymmetric hybrid potentials are strongly constrained with less than 7% correlated isocurvature component allowed when standard priors are imposed on the cosomological parameters. As a result we also find that Akaike & Bayesian model selection criteria rather strongly prefer single-field inflation, just as equivalent analysis prefers a cosmological constant over dynamical dark energy in the late universe. It appears that simplicity is the best guide to our universe.

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arXiv2004

Model-independent dark energy test with sigma_8 using results from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe

By combining the recent WMAP measurements of the cosmic microwave background anisotropies and the results of the recent luminosity distance measurements to type-Ia supernovae, we find that the normalization of the matter power spectrum on cluster scales, sigma_8, can be used to discriminate between dynamical models of dark energy (quintessence models) and a conventional cosmological constant model (LCDM).

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arXiv2004

Dark Energy in Chains

Dark energy affects the CMB through its perturbations and affects both CMB and Sn-Ia through its background evolution. Using recent CMB and Sn-Ia data sets, together with the most general parameterization of the dark energy equation of state available, we find that today w < -0.8 (2 sigma). We also find that the value of the normalization of the power spectrum on cluster scales, sigma8, can be used to discriminate between dynamical models of dark energy (Quintessence models) and a cosmological constant model (Lambda CDM).

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arXiv2003

Mapping the Dark Energy with Varying Alpha

Cosmological dark energy is a natural source of variation of the fine structure constant. Using a model-independent approach we show that once general assumptions about the alpha-varying interactions are made, astronomical probes of its variation constrain the dark energy equation of state today to satisfy -1 < w_f < -0.96 at 3-sigma and significantly disfavour late-time changes in the equation of state. We show how dark-energy-induced spatial perturbations of alpha are linked to violations of the Equivalence Principle and are thus negligible at low-redshift, in stark contrast to the BSBM theories. This provides a new test of dark energy as the source of alpha variation.

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arXiv2003

Condensate cosmology -- dark energy from dark matter

Imagine a scenario in which the dark energy forms via the condensation of dark matter at some low redshift. The Compton wavelength therefore changes from small to very large at the transition, unlike quintessence or metamorphosis. We study CMB, large scale structure, supernova and radio galaxy constraints on condensation by performing a 4 parameter likelihood analysis over the Hubble constant and the three parameters associated with Q, the condensate field: Omega_Q, w_f and z_t (energy density and equation of state today, and redshift of transition). Condensation roughly interpolates between Lambda CDM (for large z_t) and sCDM (low z_t) and provides a slightly better fit to the data than Lambda CDM. We confirm that there is no degeneracy in the CMB between H and z_t and discuss the implications of late-time transitions for the Lyman-alpha forest. Finally we discuss the nonlinear phase of both condensation and metamorphosis, which is much more interesting than in standard quintessence models.

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arXiv2003

Correlation-consistency cartography of the double inflation landscape

We show explicitly some exciting features of double-inflation: (i) it can often lead to strongly correlated adiabatic and entropy (isocurvature) power spectra. (ii) The two-field slow-roll consistency relations can be violated when the correlation is large at Hubble crossing. (iii) The spectra of adiabatic and entropy perturbations can be strongly scale-dependent and tilted toward either the red or blue. These effects are typically due to a light or time-dependent entropy mass and a non-negligible angular velocity in field space during inflation. They are illustrated via a multi-parameter numerical search for correlations in two concrete models. The correlation is found to be particularly strong in a supersymmetric scenario due to rapid growth of entropy perturbations in the tachyonic region separating the two inflationary stages. Our analysis suggests that realistic double-inflation models will provide a rich and fruitful arena for the application of future cosmic data sets and new approximation schemes which go beyond slow-roll.

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