arXiv subjects

David R. Hunter

Publications and source records attributed to David R. Hunter.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

A regression framework for studying relationships among attributes under network interference

To understand how the interconnected and interdependent world of the twenty-first century operates and make model-based predictions, joint probability models for networks and interdependent outcomes are needed. We propose a comprehensive regression framework for networks and interdependent outcomes with multiple advantages, including interpretability, scalability, and provable theoretical guarantees. The regression framework can be used for studying relationships among attributes of connected units and captures complex dependencies among connections and attributes, while retaining the virtues of linear regression, logistic regression, and other regression models by being interpretable and widely applicable. On the computational side, we show that the regression framework is amenable to scalable statistical computing based on convex optimization of pseudo-likelihoods using minorization-maximization methods. On the theoretical side, we establish convergence rates for pseudo-likelihood estimators based on a single observation of dependent connections and attributes. We demonstrate the regression framework using simulations and an application to hate speech on the social media platform X.

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arXiv2023

Modeling Homophily in Exponential-Family Random Graph Models for Bipartite Networks

Homophily, the tendency of individuals who are alike to form ties with one another, is an important concept in the study of social networks. Yet accounting for homophily effects is complicated in the context of bipartite networks where ties connect individuals not with one another but rather with a separate set of nodes, which might also be individuals but which are often an entirely different type of objects. As a result, much work on the effect of homophily in a bipartite network proceeds by first eliminating the bipartite structure, collapsing a two-mode network to a one-mode network and thereby ignoring potentially meaningful structure in the data. We introduce a set of methods to model homophily on bipartite networks without losing information in this way, then we demonstrate that these methods allow for substantively interesting findings in management science not possible using standard techniques. These methods are implemented in the widely-used ergm package for R.

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arXiv2023

A Dynamic Additive and Multiplicative Effects Model with Application to the United Nations Voting Behaviors

Motivated by a study of United Nations voting behaviors, we introduce a regression model for a series of networks that are correlated over time. Our model is a dynamic extension of the additive and multiplicative effects network model (AMEN) of Hoff (2019). In addition to incorporating a temporal structure, the model accommodates two types of missing data thus allows the size of the network to vary over time. We demonstrate via simulations the necessity of various components of the model. We apply the model to the United Nations General Assembly voting data from 1983 to 2014 (Voeten (2013)) to answer interesting research questions regarding international voting behaviors. In addition to finding important factors that could explain the voting behaviors, the model-estimated additive effects, multiplicative effects, and their movements reveal meaningful foreign policy positions and alliances of various countries.

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arXiv2022

ergm 4: Computational Improvements

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arXiv2022

ergm 4: New features

The ergm package supports the statistical analysis and simulation of network data. It anchors the statnet suite of packages for network analysis in R introduced in a special issue in Journal of Statistical Software in 2008. This article provides an overview of the new functionality in the 2021 release of ergm version 4. These include more flexible handling of nodal covariates, term operators that extend and simplify model specification, new models for networks with valued edges, improved handling of constraints on the sample space of networks, and estimation with missing edge data. We also identify the new packages in the statnet suite that extend ergm's functionality to other network data types and structural features and the robust set of online resources that support the statnet development process and applications.

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arXiv2022

Likelihood-based Inference for Exponential-Family Random Graph Models via Linear Programming

This article discusses the problem of determining whether a given point, or set of points, lies within the convex hull of another set of points in $d$ dimensions. This problem arises naturally in a statistical context when using a particular approximation to the loglikelihood function for an exponential family model; in particular, we discuss the application to network models here. While the convex hull question may be solved via a simple linear program, this approach is not well known in the statistical literature. Furthermore, this article details several substantial improvements to the convex hull-testing algorithm currently implemented in the widely used 'ergm' package for network modeling.

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arXiv2020

Improving ERGM Starting Values Using Simulated Annealing

Much of the theory of estimation for exponential family models, which include exponential-family random graph models (ERGMs) as a special case, is well-established and maximum likelihood estimates in particular enjoy many desirable properties. However, in the case of many ERGMs, direct calculation of MLEs is impossible and therefore methods for approximating MLEs and/or alternative estimation methods must be employed. Many MLE approximation methods require alternative estimates as starting points. We discuss one class of such alternatives here. The MLE satisfies the so-called "likelihood principle," unlike the MPLE. This means that different networks may have different MPLEs even if they have the same sufficient statistics. We exploit this fact here to search for improved starting values for approximation-based MLE methods. The method we propose has shown its merit in producing an MLE for a network dataset and model that had defied estimation using all other known methods.

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arXiv2018

Clustering Via Finite Nonparametric ICA Mixture Models

We propose an extension of non-parametric multivariate finite mixture models by dropping the standard conditional independence assumption and incorporating the independent component analysis (ICA) structure instead. We formulate an objective function in terms of penalized smoothed Kullback Leibler distance and introduce the nonlinear smoothed majorization-minimization independent component analysis (NSMM-ICA) algorithm for optimizing this function and estimating the model parameters. We have implemented a practical version of this algorithm, which utilizes the FastICA algorithm, in the R package icamix. We illustrate this new methodology using several applications in unsupervised learning and image processing.

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arXiv2017

Model-Based Clustering of Time-Evolving Networks through Temporal Exponential-Family Random Graph Models

Dynamic networks are a general language for describing time-evolving complex systems, and discrete time network models provide an emerging statistical technique for various applications. It is a fundamental research question to detect the community structure in time-evolving networks. However, due to significant computational challenges and difficulties in modeling communities of time-evolving networks, there is little progress in the current literature to effectively find communities in time-evolving networks. In this work, we propose a novel model-based clustering framework for time-evolving networks based on discrete time exponential-family random graph models. To choose the number of communities, we use conditional likelihood to construct an effective model selection criterion. Furthermore, we propose an efficient variational expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to find approximate maximum likelihood estimates of network parameters and mixing proportions. By using variational methods and minorization-maximization (MM) techniques, our method has appealing scalability for large-scale time-evolving networks. The power of our method is demonstrated in simulation studies and empirical applications to international trade networks and the collaboration networks of a large American research university.

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arXiv2017

Assignment of endogenous retrovirus integration sites using a mixture model

Structural variation occurs in the genomes of individuals because of the different positions occupied by repetitive genome elements like endogenous retroviruses, or ERVs. The presence or absence of ERVs can be determined by identifying the junction with the host genome using high-throughput sequence technology and a clustering algorithm. The resulting data give the number of sequence reads assigned to each ERV-host junction sequence for each sampled individual. Variability in the number of reads from an individual integration site makes it difficult to determine whether a site is present for low read counts. We present a novel two-component mixture of negative binomial distributions to model these counts and assign a probability that a given ERV is present in a given individual. We explain how our approach is superior to existing alternatives, including another form of two-component mixture model and the much more common approach of selecting a threshold count for declaring the presence of an ERV. We apply our method to a data set of ERV integrations in mule deer [Odocoileus hemionus], a species for which no genomic resources are available, and demonstrate that the discovered patterns of shared integration sites contain information about animal relatedness.

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arXiv2015

Theoretical Grounding for Estimation in Conditional Independence Multivariate Finite Mixture Models

For the nonparametric estimation of multivariate finite mixture models with the conditional independence assumption, we propose a new formulation of the objective function in terms of penalized smoothed Kullback-Leibler distance. The nonlinearly smoothed majorization-minimization (NSMM) algorithm is derived from this perspective. An elegant representation of the NSMM algorithm is obtained using a novel projection-multiplication operator, a more precise monotonicity property of the algorithm is discovered, and the existence of a solution to the main optimization problem is proved for the first time.

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arXiv2013

Model-based clustering of large networks

We describe a network clustering framework, based on finite mixture models, that can be applied to discrete-valued networks with hundreds of thousands of nodes and billions of edge variables. Relative to other recent model-based clustering work for networks, we introduce a more flexible modeling framework, improve the variational-approximation estimation algorithm, discuss and implement standard error estimation via a parametric bootstrap approach, and apply these methods to much larger data sets than those seen elsewhere in the literature. The more flexible framework is achieved through introducing novel parameterizations of the model, giving varying degrees of parsimony, using exponential family models whose structure may be exploited in various theoretical and algorithmic ways. The algorithms are based on variational generalized EM algorithms, where the E-steps are augmented by a minorization-maximization (MM) idea. The bootstrapped standard error estimates are based on an efficient Monte Carlo network simulation idea. Last, we demonstrate the usefulness of the model-based clustering framework by applying it to a discrete-valued network with more than 131,000 nodes and 17 billion edge variables.

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arXiv2012

The Dynamics of Health Behavior Sentiments on a Large Online Social Network

Modifiable health behaviors, a leading cause of illness and death in many countries, are often driven by individual beliefs and sentiments about health and disease. Individual behaviors affecting health outcomes are increasingly modulated by social networks, for example through the associations of like-minded individuals - homophily - or through peer influence effects. Using a statistical approach to measure the individual temporal effects of a large number of variables pertaining to social network statistics, we investigate the spread of a health sentiment towards a new vaccine on Twitter, a large online social network. We find that the effects of neighborhood size and exposure intensity are qualitatively very different depending on the type of sentiment. Generally, we find that larger numbers of opinionated neighbors inhibit the expression of sentiments. We also find that exposure to negative sentiment is contagious - by which we merely mean predictive of future negative sentiment expression - while exposure to positive sentiments is generally not. In fact, exposure to positive sentiments can even predict increased negative sentiment expression. Our results suggest that the effects of peer influence and social contagion on the dynamics of behavioral spread on social networks are strongly content-dependent.

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arXiv2007

Inference for mixtures of symmetric distributions

This article discusses the problem of estimation of parameters in finite mixtures when the mixture components are assumed to be symmetric and to come from the same location family. We refer to these mixtures as semi-parametric because no additional assumptions other than symmetry are made regarding the parametric form of the component distributions. Because the class of symmetric distributions is so broad, identifiability of parameters is a major issue in these mixtures. We develop a notion of identifiability of finite mixture models, which we call k-identifiability, where k denotes the number of components in the mixture. We give sufficient conditions for k-identifiability of location mixtures of symmetric components when k=2 or 3. We propose a novel distance-based method for estimating the (location and mixing) parameters from a k-identifiable model and establish the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator. In the specific case of L_2-distance, we show that our estimator generalizes the Hodges--Lehmann estimator. We discuss the numerical implementation of these procedures, along with an empirical estimate of the component distribution, in the two-component case. In comparisons with maximum likelihood estimation assuming normal components, our method produces somewhat higher standard error estimates in the case where the components are truly normal, but dramatically outperforms the normal method when the components are heavy-tailed.

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arXiv2005

Variable selection using MM algorithms

Variable selection is fundamental to high-dimensional statistical modeling. Many variable selection techniques may be implemented by maximum penalized likelihood using various penalty functions. Optimizing the penalized likelihood function is often challenging because it may be nondifferentiable and/or nonconcave. This article proposes a new class of algorithms for finding a maximizer of the penalized likelihood for a broad class of penalty functions. These algorithms operate by perturbing the penalty function slightly to render it differentiable, then optimizing this differentiable function using a minorize-maximize (MM) algorithm. MM algorithms are useful extensions of the well-known class of EM algorithms, a fact that allows us to analyze the local and global convergence of the proposed algorithm using some of the techniques employed for EM algorithms. In particular, we prove that when our MM algorithms converge, they must converge to a desirable point; we also discuss conditions under which this convergence may be guaranteed. We exploit the Newton-Raphson-like aspect of these algorithms to propose a sandwich estimator for the standard errors of the estimators. Our method performs well in numerical tests.

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