arXiv subjects

David Rapetti

Publications and source records attributed to David Rapetti.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Discovery of an Inflated Hot Neptune and Its Formation from Jovian Mass Loss

The production of Neptune-like planets with orbital periods of 3--6 days is challenging for conventional models of high-eccentricity migration. We present the discovery and characterization of TOI-2195~A~b, an inflated hot Neptune ($P = 4.16$ days, $m_p= 1.46M_{\rm Nep},\,R_p = 0.79R_{\rm J}$) orbiting an early K-type star with a wide binary companion at $\sim 600$~au. Detection of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect at $\sim2.6\sigma$ confidence with Magellan/PFS reveals the planet is likely on a near-polar orbit with a sky-projected stellar obliquity $\lambda = {109^{+35}_{-53}} ^{\circ}$. We perform coupled dynamical and structural modeling that reproduces the observed characteristics of the system. We show that the planet may have originated as a cold, Jovian planet that was excited to high eccentricities via the stellar Eccentric Kozai-Lidov (EKL) mechanism, where it lost up to $\sim90\%$ of its mass via Roche lobe overflow during close periastron passages, enabling rapid tidal migration and radius inflation due to tidal heating. TOI-2195 A b provides a test for planetary migration theories, and our simulations suggest that puffy hot Neptunes originated as more massive Jovians that underwent mass loss during high-eccentricity migration.

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arXiv2026

Uncovering the Rapidly Evolving Orbits of the Dynamic TOI-201 System

Studying planetary interactions in exoplanet systems informs theories of planet formation and evolution, providing essential context for understanding our own solar system. We combine spectroscopy, transit photometry, transit timing variations, and astrometry to characterize the TOI-201 system. The co-transiting system consists of a super-Earth, warm Jupiter, and massive companion at 5.8, 53, and 2900 day orbital periods, respectively. We perform dynamical simulations to study the past and future of the system. von-Zeipel-Kozai-Lidov oscillations emerge as the most plausible scenario to explain the outer companion's high orbital eccentricity, with planet-planet scattering a possible but less likely contender. Due to non-zero mutual inclinations between the planets, the system is visibly evolving on very short timescales, with the current co-transiting configuration ending in 200 years.

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arXiv2026

Joint Estimation of Properties of the Lunar Subsurface and Galactic Foregrounds with LuSEE-Night

The Lunar Surface Electromagnetics Experiment (LuSEE-Night) is a joint NASA-DOE-ESA low-frequency radio telescope that will reach the lunar far side in 2027. The unknown dielectric properties of the subsurface at the LuSEE-Night landing site impose the most significant limitation for precision instrument calibration, as reflections from the lunar subsurface can change the primary beam at the 10-20% level. Simulations of these effects have provided insight and concern, showing that the lunar subsurface modeled as a lossy dielectric can absorb a large amount of the power of the sky signal. While this absorption may not strongly impact the signal-to-noise ratio in a sky-noise-dominated regime, it could complicate the beam pattern and make the signal more difficult to model and interpret. We have simulated the far-field properties of the LuSEE-Night beam for varying dielectric profiles of the lunar subsurface. We find that varying the properties of the lunar subsurface has the most significant impact around the antenna resonance, impacting its amplitude, position and width. Conversely, changing the properties of the foreground impacts the data across the band. We use a Bayesian inference pipeline to jointly estimate parameters of a galactic foreground model and dielectric properties of the lunar subsurface around the LuSEE-Night landing site and find that parameters of both the galaxy and subsurface properties can be estimated jointly. While the modeling is somewhat idealized, we believe that the results are largely robust owing to the fact that spectral variations for plausible subsurface and galaxy models have very different spectral signatures.

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arXiv2026

TOI-4495: A Pair of Aligned, Near-Resonant Sub-Neptunes that Likely Experienced Overstable Migration

We report the discovery of a sub-Neptune and a Neptune-like planet ($R_b = 2.48^{+0.14}_{-0.10}\,R_\oplus$, $R_c = 4.03^{+0.23}_{-0.15}\,R_\oplus$) orbiting the F-type star TOI-4495. The planets have orbital periods of 2.567 days and 5.185 days, lying close to a 2:1 mean-motion resonance (MMR). Our photodynamical analysis of the TESS light curves constrains the planetary masses to $M_b = 7.7 \pm 1.4\,M_\oplus$ and $M_c = 23.2 \pm 4.7\,M_\oplus$. The measured masses and radii indicate the presence of volatile-rich gaseous envelopes on both planets. The Rossiter-McLaughlin effect and the Doppler shadow of TOI-4495 c reveal a well-aligned orbit with a projected stellar obliquity of $\lambda = -2.3^{+8.3}_{-7.8}\,\mathrm{deg}$. Combined with the low mutual inclination constrained by the photodynamical analysis ($\Delta I < 8.7\,\mathrm{deg}$), the planetary orbits are likely coplanar and aligned with the host star's spin axis. We show that the planets are near, but not in, the 2:1 MMR, with a circulating resonant angle. We also find substantial free eccentricity for the inner planet, TOI-4495 b ($e_b = 0.078^{+0.020}_{-0.013}$). Given the observed proximity to the 2:1 resonance and the more massive outer planet, TOI-4495 b and c are particularly susceptible to resonant overstability, which can convert resonantly excited eccentricity into free eccentricity. However, additional mechanisms (e.g., planetesimal scattering) may be required to further excite the eccentricity by $\sim 4\%$. To prevent tidal damping from reducing the eccentricity below the observed level over the star's lifetime (1.9 Gyr), the reduced tidal quality factor of TOI-4495 b must be $Q' \gtrsim 10^5$, consistent with the presence of a thick envelope on the planet.

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arXiv2025

Linear map-making with LuSEE-Night

LuSEE-Night is a pathfinder radio telescope on the lunar far side employing four 3-m monopole antennas arranged as two horizontal cross pseudo-dipoles on a rotational stage and sensitive to the radio sky in the 1-50 MHz frequency band. LuSEE-Night measures the corresponding 16 correlation products as a function of frequency. While each antenna combination measures radiation coming from a large area of the sky, their aggregate information as a function of phase in the lunar cycle and rotational stage position can be deconvolved into a low-resolution map of the sky. We study this deconvolution using linear map-making based on the Wiener filter algorithm. We illustrate how systematic effects can be effectively marginalised over as contributions to the noise covariance and demonstrate this technique on beam knowledge uncertainty and gain fluctuations. With reasonable assumptions about instrument performance, we show that LuSEE-Night should be able to map the sub-50 MHz sky at a ~5-degree resolution.

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arXiv2025

Studying Exoplanets in the Radio from the Moon

Exoplanets with and without a magnetic field are predicted to form, behave, and evolve very differently. Therefore, there is great need to directly constrain these fields to holistically understand the properties of exoplanets including their potential habitability. This goal aligns with the Astro2020 Decadal Survey recommendations. Observing planetary auroral radio emissions is among the most promising detection methods, but decades of searching have yet to yield a conclusive detection, though promising hints are now emerging from ground-based radio telescopes. However, these ground-based efforts are fundamentally limited by Earth's ionosphere, which blocks the low-frequency signals (<10 MHz) expected from terrestrial and Neptune-like exoplanets. In this white paper, we outline a strategy to overcome this barrier by utilizing the unique environment of the Moon. We discuss how the upcoming LuSEE-Night and ROLSES pathfinder missions will study our Solar System's planets as exoplanet analogs and place the first meaningful upper limits on exoplanetary radio flux below 10 MHz. Furthermore, we explore the revolutionary potential of the proposed future lunar arrays FarView and FARSIDE. For example, FarView will be sensitive enough to study the magnetic fields of a diverse set of exoplanets (super-Earths to gas giants) and an order of magnitude more Jupiter-like planets than ground-based telescopes, providing crucial tests for dynamo theory. Most significantly, FARSIDE will be able to detect the magnetospheres of nearby terrestrial exoplanets, offering a powerful synergy with atmospheric characterization efforts by JWST and HWO to fully assess their potential habitability. By opening this unexplored low-frequency window, radio astronomy from the Moon is poised to transform the field of exoplanet magnetospheric science. [Abridged]

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arXiv2025

TESS Science Processing Operations Center Photometric Precision Archival Product

We report the delivery to the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST) of tables containing Root Mean Square (RMS) Combined Differential Photometric Precision (CDPP) values for all TESS 2-min cadence targets with Science Processing Operations Center (SPOC) light curves in Sectors 1-90. Each comma-separated values (CSV) file contains CDPP values for all 2-min light curves in the given sector. The tables include robust RMS CDPP values for the 15 trial transit pulse durations searched in the SPOC 2-min processing pipeline, ranging from 0.5-15.0 hr. For each pulse duration, CDPP is computed in the transit search for a trial transit centered on every cadence. The RMS value of the CDPP time series is a metric that may be employed to estimate signal-to-noise ratio for transits with the given duration and a specified depth. We will continue to deliver the RMS CDPP tables to MAST for each observing sector.

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arXiv2025

Results from NASA's First Radio Telescope on the Moon: Terrestrial Technosignatures and the Low-Frequency Galactic Background Observed by ROLSES-1 Onboard the Odysseus Lander

Radiowave Observations on the Lunar Surface of the photo-Electron Sheath instrument (ROLSES- 1) onboard the Intuitive Machines' Odysseus lunar lander represents NASA's first radio telescope on the Moon, and the first United States spacecraft landing on the lunar surface in five decades. Despite a host of challenges, ROLSES-1 managed to collect a small amount of data over fractions of one day during cruise phase and two days on the lunar surface with four monopole stacer antennas that were in a non-ideal deployment. All antennas recorded shortwave radio transmissions breaking through the Earth's ionosphere -- or terrestrial technosignatures -- from spectral and raw waveform data. These technosignatures appear to be modulated by density fluctuations in the Earth's ionosphere and could be used as markers when searching for extraterrestrial intelligence from habitable exoplanets. After data reduction and marshaling a host of statistical and sampling techniques, five minutes of raw waveforms from the least noisy antenna were used to generate covariances constraining both the antenna parameters and the amplitude of the low-frequency isotropic galactic spectrum. ROLSES- 2 and LuSEE-Night, both lunar radio telescopes launching later in the decade, will have significant upgrades from ROLSES-1 and will be set to take unprecedented measurements of the low-frequency sky, lunar surface, and constrain the cosmological 21-cm signal. ROLSES-1 represents a trailblazer for lunar radio telescopes, and many of the statistical tools and data reduction techniques presented in this work will be invaluable for upcoming lunar radio telescope missions.

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arXiv2025

TOI-2015b: a sub-Neptune in strong gravitational interaction with an outer non-transiting planet

TOI-2015 is a known exoplanetary system around an M4 dwarf star, consisting of a transiting sub-Neptune planet in a 3.35-day orbital period, TOI-2015b, accompanied by a non-transiting companion, TOI-2015c. High-precision RV measurements were taken with the MAROON-X spectrograph, and high-precision photometric data were collected several networks. We re-characterize the target star by combining optical spectr, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) analysis. The TOI-2015 host star is a K=10.3mag M4-type dwarf with a sub-solar metallicity of [Fe/H]=-0.31+/-0.16, and a Teff=3200K. Our photodynamical analysis of the system strongly favors the 5:3 mean motion resonance and in this scenario the planet b has an orbital period of 3.34days, a mass of Mp=9.02+/-0.34Me, a radius of Rp=3.309+/-0.012Re, resulting in a density of rhop= 1.40+/-0.06g/cm3, indicative of a Neptune like composition. Its transits exhibit large (>1hr) timing variations indicative of an outer perturber in the system. We performed a global analysis of the high-resolution RV measurements, the photometric data, and the TTVs, and inferred that TOI-2015 hosts a second planet, TOI-2015c, in a non-transiting configuration. TOI-2015c has an orbital period of Pc=5.583days and a mass of Mp=8.91+0.38-0.40Me. The dynamical configuration of TOI-2015b and TOI-2015c can be used to constrain the system's planetary formation and migration history. Based on the mass-radius composition models, TOI-2015b is a water-rich or rocky planet with a hydrogen-helium envelope. Moreover, TOI-2015b has a high transmission spectroscopic metric (TSM=149), making it a favorable target for future transmission spectroscopic observations with JWST to constrain the atmospheric composition of the planet. Such observations would also help to break the degeneracies in theoretical models of the planet's interior structure.

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arXiv2024

TESS Giants Transiting Giants. VII. A Hot Saturn Orbiting an Oscillating Red Giant Star

We present the discovery of TOI-7041 b (TIC 201175570 b), a hot Saturn transiting a red giant star with measurable stellar oscillations. We observe solar-like oscillations in TOI-7041 with a frequency of maximum power of $\nu_{\rm max} = 218.50\pm2.23$ $\mu$Hz and a large frequency separation of $\Delta\nu = 16.5282\pm0.0186$ $\mu$Hz. Our asteroseismic analysis indicates that TOI-7041 has a radius of $4.10 \pm 0.06$(stat) $\pm$ 0.05(sys) $R_\odot$, making it one of the largest stars around which a transiting planet has been discovered with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), and the mission's first oscillating red giant with a transiting planet. TOI-7041 b has an orbital period of $9.691 \pm 0.006$ days and a low eccentricity of $e = 0.04 \pm 0.04$. We measure a planet radius of $1.02 \pm 0.03$ $R_J$ with photometry from TESS, and a planet mass of $0.36 \pm 0.16$ $M_J$ ($114 \pm 51$ $M_\oplus$) with ground-based radial velocity measurements. TOI-7041 b appears less inflated than similar systems receiving equivalent incident flux, and its circular orbit indicates that it is not undergoing tidal heating due to circularization. The asteroseismic analysis of the host star provides some of the tightest constraints on stellar properties for a TESS planet host and enables precise characterization of the hot Saturn. This system joins a small number of TESS-discovered exoplanets orbiting stars that exhibit clear stellar oscillations and indicates that extended TESS observations of evolved stars will similarly provide a path to improved exoplanet characterization.

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arXiv2024

TOI-2458 b: A mini-Neptune consistent with in situ hot Jupiter formation

We report on the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation of TOI-2458 b, a transiting mini-Neptune around an F-type star leaving the main-sequence with a mass of $M_\star=1.05 \pm 0.03$ M$_{\odot}$, a radius of $R_\star=1.31 \pm 0.03$ R$_{\odot}$, an effective temperature of $T_{\rm eff}=6005\pm50$ K, and a metallicity of $-0.10\pm0.05$ dex. By combining TESS photometry with high-resolution spectra acquired with the HARPS spectrograph, we found that the transiting planet has an orbital period of $\sim$3.74 days, a mass of $M_p=13.31\pm0.99$ M$_{\oplus}$ and a radius of $R_p=2.83\pm0.20$ R$_{\oplus}$. The host star TOI-2458 shows a short activity cycle of $\sim$54 days revealed in the HARPS S-index and H$\alpha$ times series. We took the opportunity to investigate other F stars showing activity cycle periods comparable to that of TOI-2458 and found that they have shorter rotation periods than would be expected based on the gyrochronology predictions. In addition, we determined TOI-2458's stellar inclination angle to be $i_\star\,=\,10.6_{-10.6}^{+13.3}$ degrees. We discuss that both phenomena (fast stellar rotation and planet orbit inclination) could be explained by in situ formation of a hot Jupiter interior to TOI-2458 b. It is plausible that this hot Jupiter was recently engulfed by the star. Analysis of HARPS spectra has identified the presence of another planet with a period of $P\,=\,16.55\pm0.06$ days and a minimum mass of $M_p \sin i=10.22\pm1.90$ M$_{\oplus}$. Using dynamical stability analysis, we constrained the mass of this planet to the range $M_{c} \simeq (10, 25)$ M$_{\oplus}$.

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arXiv2024

$\texttt{MEDEA}$: A New Model for Emulating Radio Antenna Beam Patterns for 21-cm Cosmology and Antenna Design Studies

In 21-cm experimental cosmology, accurate characterization of a radio telescope's antenna beam response is essential to measure the 21-cm signal. Computational electromagnetic (CEM) simulations estimate the antenna beam pattern and frequency response by subjecting the EM model to different dependencies, or beam hyper-parameters, such as soil dielectric constant or orientation with the environment. However, it is computationally expensive to search all possible parameter spaces to optimize the antenna design or accurately represent the beam to the level required for use as a systematic model in 21-cm cosmology. We therefore present $\texttt{MEDEA}$, an emulator which rapidly and accurately generates farfield radiation patterns over a large hyper-parameter space. $\texttt{MEDEA}$ takes a subset of beams simulated by CEM software, spatially decomposes them into coefficients in a complete, linear basis, and then interpolates them to form new beams at arbitrary hyper-parameters. We test $\texttt{MEDEA}$ on an analytical dipole and two numerical beams motivated by upcoming lunar lander missions, and then employ $\texttt{MEDEA}$ as a model to fit mock radio spectrometer data to extract covariances on the input beam hyper-parameters. We find that the interpolated beams have RMS relative errors of at most $10^{-2}$ using 20 input beams or less, and that fits to mock data are able to recover the input beam hyper-parameters when the model and mock derive from the same set of beams. When a systematic bias is introduced into the mock data, extracted beam hyper-parameters exhibit bias, as expected. We propose several future extensions to $\texttt{MEDEA}$ to potentially account for such bias.

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arXiv2024

Single-Star Warm-Jupiter Systems Tend to Be Aligned, Even Around Hot Stellar Hosts: No $T_{\rm eff}-\lambda$ Dependency

The stellar obliquity distribution of warm-Jupiter systems is crucial for constraining the dynamical history of Jovian exoplanets, as the warm Jupiters' tidal detachment likely preserves their primordial obliquity. However, the sample size of warm-Jupiter systems with measured stellar obliquities has historically been limited compared to that of hot Jupiters, particularly in hot-star systems. In this work, we present newly obtained sky-projected stellar obliquity measurements for warm-Jupiter systems, TOI-559, TOI-2025, TOI-2031, TOI-2485, TOI-2524, and TOI-3972, derived from the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect, and show that all six systems display alignment with a median measurement uncertainty of 13 degrees. Combining these new measurements with the set of previously reported stellar obliquity measurements, our analysis reveals that single-star warm-Jupiter systems tend to be aligned, even around hot stellar hosts. This alignment exhibits a 3.4-$\sigma$ deviation from the $T_{\rm eff}-\lambda$ dependency observed in hot-Jupiter systems, where planets around cool stars tend to be aligned, while those orbiting hot stars show considerable misalignment. The current distribution of spin-orbit measurements for Jovian exoplanets indicates that misalignments are neither universal nor primordial phenomena affecting all types of planets. The absence of misalignments in single-star warm-Jupiter systems further implies that many hot Jupiters, by contrast, have experienced a dynamically violent history.

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arXiv2024

TOI-2490b- The most eccentric brown dwarf transiting in the brown dwarf desert

We report the discovery of the most eccentric transiting brown dwarf in the brown dwarf desert, TOI02490b. The brown dwarf desert is the lack of brown dwarfs around main sequence stars within $\sim3$~AU and is thought to be caused by differences in formation mechanisms between a star and planet. To date, only $\sim40$ transiting brown dwarfs have been confirmed. \systemt is a $73.6\pm2.4$ \mjupnospace, $1.00\pm0.02$ \rjup brown dwarf orbiting a $1.004_{-0.022}^{+0.031}$ \msunnospace, $1.105_{-0.012}^{+0.012}$ \rsun sun-like star on a 60.33~d orbit with an eccentricity of $0.77989\pm0.00049$. The discovery was detected within \tess sectors 5 (30 minute cadence) and 32 (2 minute and 20 second cadence). It was then confirmed with 31 radial velocity measurements with \feros by the WINE collaboration and photometric observations with the Next Generation Transit Survey. Stellar modelling of the host star estimates an age of $\sim8$~Gyr, which is supported by estimations from kinematics likely placing the object within the thin disc. However, this is not consistent with model brown dwarf isochrones for the system age suggesting an inflated radius. Only one other transiting brown dwarf with an eccentricity higher than 0.6 is currently known in the brown dwarf desert. Demographic studies of brown dwarfs have suggested such high eccentricity is indicative of stellar formation mechanisms.

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arXiv2024

TOI 762 A b and TIC 46432937 b: Two Giant Planets Transiting M Dwarf Stars

We present the discovery of TOI 762 A b and TIC 46432937 b, two giant planets transiting M dwarf stars. Transits of both systems were first detected from observations by the NASA TESS mission, and the transiting objects are confirmed as planets through high-precision radial velocity (RV) observations carried out with VLT/ESPRESSO. TOI 762 A b is a warm sub-Saturn with a mass of 0.251 +- 0.042 M_J, a radius of 0.744 +- 0.017 R_J, and an orbital period of 3.4717 d. It transits a mid-M dwarf star with a mass of 0.442 +- 0.025 M_S and a radius of 0.4250 +- 0.0091 R_S. The star TOI 762 A has a resolved binary star companion TOI 762 B that is separated from TOI 762 A by 3.2" (~ 319 AU) and has an estimated mass of 0.227 +- 0.010 M_S. The planet TIC 46432937 b is a warm Super-Jupiter with a mass of 3.20 +- 0.11 M_J and radius of 1.188 +- 0.030 R_J. The planet's orbital period is P = 1.4404 d, and it undergoes grazing transits of its early M dwarf host star, which has a mass of 0.563 +- 0.029 M_S and a radius of 0.5299 +- 0.0091 R_S. TIC 46432937 b is one of the highest mass planets found to date transiting an M dwarf star. TIC 46432937 b is also a promising target for atmospheric observations, having the highest Transmission Spectroscopy Metric or Emission Spectroscopy Metric value of any known warm Super-Jupiter (mass greater than 3.0 M_J, equilibrium temperature below 1000 K).

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arXiv2024

Discovery of two warm mini-Neptunes with contrasting densities orbiting the young K3V star TOI-815

We present the discovery and characterization of two warm mini-Neptunes transiting the K3V star TOI-815 in a K-M binary system. Analysis of the spectra and rotation period reveal it to be a young star with an age of $200^{+400}_{-200}$Myr. TOI-815b has a 11.2-day period and a radius of 2.94$\pm$0.05$\it{R_{\rm\mathrm{\oplus}}}$ with transits observed by TESS, CHEOPS, ASTEP, and LCOGT. The outer planet, TOI-815c, has a radius of 2.62$\pm$0.10$\it{R_{\rm\mathrm{\oplus}}}$, based on observations of three non-consecutive transits with TESS, while targeted CHEOPS photometry and radial velocity follow-up with ESPRESSO were required to confirm the 35-day period. ESPRESSO confirmed the planetary nature of both planets and measured masses of 7.6$\pm$1.5 $\it{M_{\rm \mathrm{\oplus}}}$ ($\rho_\mathrm{P}$=1.64$^{+0.33}_{-0.31}$gcm$^{-3}$) and 23.5$\pm$2.4$\it{M_{\rm\mathrm{\oplus}}}$ ($\rho_\mathrm{P}$=7.2$^{+1.1}_{-1.0}$gcm$^{-3}$) respectively. Thus, the planets have very different masses, unlike the usual similarity of masses in compact multi-planet systems. Moreover, our statistical analysis of mini-Neptunes orbiting FGK stars suggests that weakly irradiated planets tend to have higher bulk densities compared to those suffering strong irradiation. This could be ascribed to their cooler atmospheres, which are more compressed and denser. Internal structure modeling of TOI-815b suggests it likely has a H-He atmosphere constituting a few percent of the total planet mass, or higher if the planet is assumed to have no water. In contrast, the measured mass and radius of TOI-815c can be explained without invoking any atmosphere, challenging planetary formation theories. Finally, we infer from our measurements that the star is viewed close to pole-on, which implies a spin-orbit misalignment at the 3$\sigma$ level.

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arXiv2023

TOI-1859b: A 64-Day Warm Jupiter on an Eccentric and Misaligned Orbit

Warm Jupiters are close-in giant planets with relatively large planet-star separations (i.e., $10< a/R_\star <100$). Given their weak tidal interactions with their host stars, measurements of stellar obliquity may be used to probe the initial obliquity distribution and dynamical history for close-in gas giants. Using spectroscopic observations, we confirm the planetary nature of TOI-1859b and determine the stellar obliquity of TOI-1859 to be $\lambda = 38.9^{+2.8}_{-2.7}\deg$ relative to its planetary companion using the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect. TOI-1859b is a 64-day warm Jupiter orbiting around a late-F dwarf and has an orbital eccentricity of $0.57^{+0.12}_{-0.16}$, inferred purely from transit light curves. The eccentric and misaligned orbit of TOI-1859b is likely an outcome of dynamical interactions, such as planet-planet scattering and planet-disk resonance crossing.

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arXiv2023

Fitting and Comparing Galactic Foreground Models for Unbiased 21-cm Cosmology

Accurate detection of the cosmological 21-cm global signal requires galactic foreground models which can remove power over ~$10^6$. Although foreground and global signal models unavoidably exhibit overlap in their vector-spaces inducing bias error in the extracted signal, a second source of bias and error arises from inadequate foreground models, i.e. models which cannot fit spectra down to the noise level of the signal. We therefore test the level to which seven commonly employed foreground models -- including nonlinear and linear forward-models, polynomials, and maximally-smooth polynomials -- fit realistic simulated mock foreground spectra, as well as their dependence upon model inputs. The mock spectra are synthesized for an EDGES-like experiment and we compare all models' goodness-of-fit and preference using a Kolomogorov-Smirnov test of the noise-normalized residuals in order to compare models with differing, and sometimes indeterminable, degrees of freedom. For a single LST bin spectrum and p-value threshold of $p=0.05$, the nonlinear-forward model with 4 parameters is preferred ($p=0.99$), while the linear forward-model fits well with 6-7 parameters ($p=0.94,0.97$ respectively). The polynomials and maximally-smooth polynomials, like those employed by the EDGES and SARAS3 experiments, cannot produce good fits with 5 parameters for the experimental simulations in this work ($p<10^{-6}$). However, we find that polynomials with 6 parameters pass the KS-test ($p=0.4$), although a 9 parameter fit produces the highest p-value ($p\sim0.67$). When fitting multiple LST bins simultaneously, we find that the linear forward-model outperforms (a higher p-value) the nonlinear for 2, 5 and 10 LST bins. Importantly, the KS-test consistently identifies best-fit \textit{and} preferred models.

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