arXiv subjects

David S. Leslie

Publications and source records attributed to David S. Leslie.

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Posterior Contraction Rates for Gaussian Cox Processes with Non-identically Distributed Data

This paper considers the posterior contraction of non-parametric Bayesian inference on non-homogeneous Poisson processes. We consider the quality of inference on a rate function $λ$, given non-identically distributed realisations, whose rates are transformations of $λ$. Such data arises frequently in practice due, for instance, to the challenges of making observations with limited resources or the effects of weather on detectability of events. We derive contraction rates for the posterior estimates arising from the Sigmoidal Gaussian Cox Process and Quadratic Gaussian Cox Process models. These are popular models where $λ$ is modelled as a logistic and quadratic transformation of a Gaussian Process respectively. Our work extends beyond existing analyses in several regards. Firstly, we consider non-identically distributed data, previously unstudied in the Poisson process setting. Secondly, we consider the Quadratic Gaussian Cox Process model, of which there was previously little theoretical understanding. Thirdly, we provide rates on the shrinkage of both the width of balls around the true $λ$ in which the posterior mass is concentrated and on the shrinkage of posterior mass outside these balls - usually only the former is explicitly given. Finally, our results hold for certain finite numbers of observations, rather than only asymptotically, and we relate particular choices of hyperparameter/prior to these results.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Bandit learning in concave $N$-person games

This paper examines the long-run behavior of learning with bandit feedback in non-cooperative concave games. The bandit framework accounts for extremely low-information environments where the agents may not even know they are playing a game; as such, the agents' most sensible choice in this setting would be to employ a no-regret learning algorithm. In general, this does not mean that the players' behavior stabilizes in the long run: no-regret learning may lead to cycles, even with perfect gradient information. However, if a standard monotonicity condition is satisfied, our analysis shows that no-regret learning based on mirror descent with bandit feedback converges to Nash equilibrium with probability $1$. We also derive an upper bound for the convergence rate of the process that nearly matches the best attainable rate for single-agent bandit stochastic optimization.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2018

Using J-K fold Cross Validation to Reduce Variance When Tuning NLP Models

K-fold cross validation (CV) is a popular method for estimating the true performance of machine learning models, allowing model selection and parameter tuning. However, the very process of CV requires random partitioning of the data and so our performance estimates are in fact stochastic, with variability that can be substantial for natural language processing tasks. We demonstrate that these unstable estimates cannot be relied upon for effective parameter tuning. The resulting tuned parameters are highly sensitive to how our data is partitioned, meaning that we often select sub-optimal parameter choices and have serious reproducibility issues. Instead, we propose to use the less variable J-K-fold CV, in which J independent K-fold cross validations are used to assess performance. Our main contributions are extending J-K-fold CV from performance estimation to parameter tuning and investigating how to choose J and K. We argue that variability is more important than bias for effective tuning and so advocate lower choices of K than are typically seen in the NLP literature, instead use the saved computation to increase J. To demonstrate the generality of our recommendations we investigate a wide range of case-studies: sentiment classification (both general and target-specific), part-of-speech tagging and document classification.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2017

A Tutorial on Bridge Sampling

The marginal likelihood plays an important role in many areas of Bayesian statistics such as parameter estimation, model comparison, and model averaging. In most applications, however, the marginal likelihood is not analytically tractable and must be approximated using numerical methods. Here we provide a tutorial on bridge sampling (Bennett, 1976; Meng & Wong, 1996), a reliable and relatively straightforward sampling method that allows researchers to obtain the marginal likelihood for models of varying complexity. First, we introduce bridge sampling and three related sampling methods using the beta-binomial model as a running example. We then apply bridge sampling to estimate the marginal likelihood for the Expectancy Valence (EV) model---a popular model for reinforcement learning. Our results indicate that bridge sampling provides accurate estimates for both a single participant and a hierarchical version of the EV model. We conclude that bridge sampling is an attractive method for mathematical psychologists who typically aim to approximate the marginal likelihood for a limited set of possibly high-dimensional models.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Combinatorial Multi-Armed Bandits with Filtered Feedback

Motivated by problems in search and detection we present a solution to a Combinatorial Multi-Armed Bandit (CMAB) problem with both heavy-tailed reward distributions and a new class of feedback, filtered semibandit feedback. In a CMAB problem an agent pulls a combination of arms from a set $\{1,...,k\}$ in each round, generating random outcomes from probability distributions associated with these arms and receiving an overall reward. Under semibandit feedback it is assumed that the random outcomes generated are all observed. Filtered semibandit feedback allows the outcomes that are observed to be sampled from a second distribution conditioned on the initial random outcomes. This feedback mechanism is valuable as it allows CMAB methods to be applied to sequential search and detection problems where combinatorial actions are made, but the true rewards (number of objects of interest appearing in the round) are not observed, rather a filtered reward (the number of objects the searcher successfully finds, which must by definition be less than the number that appear). We present an upper confidence bound type algorithm, Robust-F-CUCB, and associated regret bound of order $\mathcal{O}(\ln(n))$ to balance exploration and exploitation in the face of both filtering of reward and heavy tailed reward distributions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Robustness Properties in Fictitious-Play-Type Algorithms

Fictitious play (FP) is a canonical game-theoretic learning algorithm which has been deployed extensively in decentralized control scenarios. However standard treatments of FP, and of many other game-theoretic models, assume rather idealistic conditions which rarely hold in realistic control scenarios. This paper considers a broad class of best response learning algorithms, that we refer to as FP-type algorithms. In such an algorithm, given some (possibly limited) information about the history of actions, each individual forecasts the future play and chooses a (myopic) best action given their forecast. We provide a unifed analysis of the behavior of FP-type algorithms under an important class of perturbations, thus demonstrating robustness to deviations from the idealistic operating conditions that have been previously assumed. This robustness result is then used to derive convergence results for two control-relevant relaxations of standard game-theoretic applications: distributed (network-based) implementation without full observability and asynchronous deployment (including in continuous time). In each case the results follow as a direct consequence of the main robustness result.

math.OC↗

arXiv2014

Game-theoretical control with continuous action sets

Motivated by the recent applications of game-theoretical learning techniques to the design of distributed control systems, we study a class of control problems that can be formulated as potential games with continuous action sets, and we propose an actor-critic reinforcement learning algorithm that provably converges to equilibrium in this class of problems. The method employed is to analyse the learning process under study through a mean-field dynamical system that evolves in an infinite-dimensional function space (the space of probability distributions over the players' continuous controls). To do so, we extend the theory of finite-dimensional two-timescale stochastic approximation to an infinite-dimensional, Banach space setting, and we prove that the continuous dynamics of the process converge to equilibrium in the case of potential games. These results combine to give a provably-convergent learning algorithm in which players do not need to keep track of the controls selected by the other agents.

math.OC↗

arXiv2011

Adaptive Forgetting Factor Fictitious Play

It is now well known that decentralised optimisation can be formulated as a potential game, and game-theoretical learning algorithms can be used to find an optimum. One of the most common learning techniques in game theory is fictitious play. However fictitious play is founded on an implicit assumption that opponents' strategies are stationary. We present a novel variation of fictitious play that allows the use of a more realistic model of opponent strategy. It uses a heuristic approach, from the online streaming data literature, to adaptively update the weights assigned to recently observed actions. We compare the results of the proposed algorithm with those of stochastic and geometric fictitious play in a simple strategic form game, a vehicle target assignment game and a disaster management problem. In all the tests the rate of convergence of the proposed algorithm was similar or better than the variations of fictitious play we compared it with. The new algorithm therefore improves the performance of game-theoretical learning in decentralised optimisation.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2011

Asynchronous Stochastic Approximation with Differential Inclusions

The asymptotic pseudo-trajectory approach to stochastic approximation of Benaim, Hofbauer and Sorin is extended for asynchronous stochastic approximations with a set-valued mean field. The asynchronicity of the process is incorporated into the mean field to produce convergence results which remain similar to those of an equivalent synchronous process. In addition, this allows many of the restrictive assumptions previously associated with asynchronous stochastic approximation to be removed. The framework is extended for a coupled asynchronous stochastic approximation process with set-valued mean fields. Two-timescales arguments are used here in a similar manner to the original work in this area by Borkar. The applicability of this approach is demonstrated through learning in a Markov decision process.

stat.ML↗