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David Salinas

Publications and source records attributed to David Salinas.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Advancing Open and Reproducible Relational Learning: RelArena-$\alpha$, TabPFN-Rel and RPI

This first release of Prior Labs in relational learning shows our continued commitment to open science. We open-source three pieces of software that we expect to accelerate research in the field towards meaningful real-world impact. We aim to steer further development based on feedback from, and in collaboration with, the community. Given the early stage of development, our $\alpha$-release targets researchers and early-adopting practitioners. Over the past years, a variety of datasets and tasks for relational learning have emerged, but the community has not converged on a reliable, reproducible way to compare different methods on these tasks. Our $\alpha$-release, RelArena-$\alpha$, provides a unified framework for running and comparing baselines on RelBench v1 by standardizing data loading, evaluation protocols, tuning regimes, and support for systems with custom tuning, inspired by established tabular benchmarks such as TabArena. We plan to work with the research community to further develop RelArena-$\alpha$ into a catalyst for progress in the relational learning community. We release the initial version of TabPFN-Rel, a purpose-built relational harness for TabPFN-3. Currently ranked first among models on RelArena-$\alpha$, TabPFN-Rel makes key improvements upon RDBLearn. Beyond its ranking, TabPFN-Rel serves as a strong baseline, adding to the growing evidence that flattening a relational database into a single table remains competitive with specialized relational architectures on real-world tasks. To facilitate adoption of relational learning methods in research and industry, we release an initial $\alpha$-version of our Relational Predictive Interface, RPI, an open-source, model-agnostic interface that enables early adopters to easily define problems on new databases and apply any model implemented in RelArena-$\alpha$, including TabPFN-Rel, to these problems.

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arXiv2026

MultiSynt/MT: Trillion-Token Multi-Parallel Pre-Training Data Translated Across 36 Languages

Open web-scale pre-training corpora remain concentrated in English, limiting multilingual LLM development. We introduce MultiSynt/MT, an open synthetic parallel corpus with approximately 4.8 trillion target-language tokens across 36 languages, produced by translating 100 billion high-quality Nemotron-CC tokens with Tower+ and OPUS-MT/HPLT-MT systems. For many medium- and lower-resource European languages, this is the largest openly available pre-training resource. Across five high- and medium-resource languages, reference LLMs trained on MultiSynt/MT reach the final score of HPLT 2.0, a native-data baseline, using roughly 72% fewer pre-training tokens, and outperform it by approximately 15% relative at a matched 100B-token training budget. Our analyses also identify evaluation blind spots: standard multiple-choice benchmarks miss translation-quality differences that a fluency-sensitive LLM-as-judge protocol recovers on the trained LLMs without detecting a deficit relative to its native-data baseline, while Norwegian idiomatic and culturally grounded tasks remain better served by native data. We release the corpus, including row-aligned translations from multiple systems, to support controlled research on multilingual pre-training data and evaluation.

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arXiv2026

JudgeArena: A Unified Framework for Reproducible LLM-Judge Evaluation

LLM-as-a-judge evaluation has become a dominant paradigm for ranking language models, yet the ecosystem remains fragmented: most benchmarks ship their own code base, hardcode a specific closed-model judge, and support a single evaluation protocol. This fragmentation makes it difficult to study how design choices--the benchmark, the judge model, the prompt, the inference backend--affect the conclusions we draw about model quality. We introduce JudgeArena, an open-source framework that unifies major LLM-judge benchmarks (AlpacaEval, Arena-Hard, MT-Bench, and m-Arena-Hard) under a single interface with swappable judges and comprehensive metadata logging for increased transparency in reporting and reproducibility. It enables systematic studies of judge choices, as any model accessible via vLLM, llama.cpp, or OpenRouter can serve as both candidate and judge. Furthermore, JudgeArena ships with tuned judge configurations for open models that match or outperform closed-model judges, validated on human preference datasets in both English and multilingual settings, reducing the reliance on opaque closed models. Finally, by combining existing human annotations with LLM-judge evaluations of a target model, JudgeArena can simulate LMArena Elo scores with high accuracy offering a practical, open, and low-cost alternative to large-scale human annotation campaigns.

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arXiv2026

From Uncertain Judgments to Calibrated Rankings: Conformal Elo Estimation for LLM Evaluation

Evaluating new large language models typically requires costly human annotation campaigns at scale. LLM-as-a-judge offers a cheaper alternative, but judge scores carry systematic errors - such as position bias, self-preference, or intransitivity - that can strongly miscalibrate the resulting rankings. We quantify the resulting judge-human disagreement at two complementary levels. At the local level, we estimate per-battle uncertainty from the judge's own score differences by propagating calibrated win probabilities rather than hard labels into the Bradley-Terry procedure. This alone provides a drastic improvement to Elo estimation accuracy, bringing LLM-derived ratings within 17.9 Elo MAE of human-derived ones when averaged over 55 held-out models on LMArena. At the global level, we apply split conformal prediction to the residual gap between LLM-derived and human-derived Elo ratings across held-out models, producing prediction intervals with distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees that account for irreducible LLM-human disagreement. Together, these two layers yield a low-cost evaluation tool that provides developers with calibrated Elo estimates and honest uncertainty bounds, without access to large-scale human annotations. To facilitate reproducibility, we release our code at https://github.com/kargibora/SoftElo .

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arXiv2026

An Open-Source Training Dataset for Foundation Models for Black-box Optimization

Most black-box optimization methods require extensive hyperparameter tuning, often limiting their ability to generalize across different optimization domains. Foundation models for black-box optimization that learn optimization principles from a large collection of optimization trajectories offer a promising alternative, with the potential to outperform manually designed methods across diverse problem classes. However, prior work has either relied on non-public datasets or on purely synthetic data, limiting reproducibility and generalization to real-world problems. As a result, progress in this area has been constrained by the lack of large-scale, real-world, publicly available pre-training data. We introduce BBO-Pile, the first open-source dataset comprising over 500K optimization trajectories evaluated across 3095 different black-boxes for different optimizers, which represents by far the largest public dataset for this task. Using this dataset, we train a family of foundation models at multiple scales, ranging from 2M to 80M parameters and from 200M to 2B training tokens, and study their scaling behavior with respect to compute. Our results demonstrate that large-scale pre-training is a viable and effective approach to imitate black-box optimization methods, paving the way for future research in this direction.

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arXiv2026

TabPFN-3: Technical Report

Tabular data underpins most high-value prediction problems in science and industry, and TabPFN has driven the foundation model revolution for this modality. Designed with feedback from our users, TabPFN-3 builds on this foundation to scale state-of-the-art performance to datasets with 1M training rows and substantially reduce training and inference time. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data from our prior, TabPFN-3 dramatically pushes the frontier of tabular prediction and brings substantial gains on time series, relational, and tabular-text data. On the standard tabular benchmark TabArena, a forward pass of TabPFN-3 outperforms all other models, including tuned and ensembled baselines, by a significant margin, and pareto-dominates the speed/performance frontier. On more diverse datasets, TabPFN-3 ranks first on datasets with many classes, and beats 8-hour-tuned gradient-boosted-tree baselines on datasets up to 1M training rows and 200 features. TabPFN-3 introduces test-time compute scaling to tabular foundation models. Our API offering TabPFN-3-Plus (Thinking) exploits this to beat all non-TabPFN models by over 200 Elo on TabArena, rising to 420 Elo on the largest data subset, and outperforms AutoGluon 1.5 extreme while being 10x faster, without using LLMs, real data, internet search or any other model besides TabPFN. TabPFN-3 extends the capabilities of our models, enabling SOTA prediction on relational data (new SOTA foundation model on RelBenchV1) and tabular-text data (SOTA on TabSTAR via TabPFN-3-Plus); and improves existing integrations: a specialized checkpoint, TabPFN-TS-3, ranks 2nd on the time-series benchmark fev-bench, and SHAP-value computation is up to 120x faster. TabPFN-3 achieves this performance while being up to 20x faster than TabPFN-2.5. In addition, a reduced KV cache and row-chunking scale to 1M rows on one H100 with fast inference speed.

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arXiv2026

Impermanent: A Live Benchmark for Temporal Generalization in Time Series Forecasting

Recent advances in time-series forecasting increasingly rely on pre-trained foundation-style models. While these models often claim broad generalization, existing evaluation protocols provide limited evidence. Indeed, most current benchmarks use static train-test splits that can easily lead to contamination as foundation models can inadvertently train on test data or perform model selection using test scores, which can inflate performance. We introduce Impermanent, a live benchmark that evaluates forecasting models under open-world temporal change by scoring forecasts sequentially over time on continuously updated data streams, enabling the study of temporal robustness, distributional shift, and performance stability rather than one-off accuracy on a frozen test set. Impermanent is instantiated on GitHub open-source activity, providing a naturally live and highly non-stationary dataset shaped by releases, shifting contributor behavior, platform/tooling changes, and external events. We focus on the top 400 repositories by star count and construct time series from issues opened, pull requests opened, push events, and new stargazers, evaluated over a rolling window with daily updates, alongside standardized protocols and leaderboards for reproducible, ongoing comparison. By shifting evaluation from static accuracy to sustained performance, Impermanent takes a concrete step toward assessing when and whether foundation-level generalization in time-series forecasting can be meaningfully claimed. Code and a live dashboard are available at https://github.com/TimeCopilot/impermanent and https://impermanent.timecopilot.dev.

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arXiv2026

Multi-Objective Hierarchical Optimization with Large Language Models

Despite their widespread adoption in various domains, especially due to their powerful reasoning capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) are not the off-the-shelf choice to drive multi-objective optimization yet. Conventional strategies rank high in benchmarks due to their intrinsic capabilities to handle numerical inputs and careful modelling choices that balance exploration and Pareto-front exploitation, as well as handle multiple (conflicting) objectives. In this paper, we close this gap by leveraging LLMs as surrogate models and candidate samplers inside a structured hierarchical search strategy. By adaptively partitioning the input space into disjoint hyperrectangular regions and ranking them with a composite score function, we restrict the generative process of the LLM to specific, high-potential sub-spaces, hence making the problem easier to solve as the LLM doesn't have to reason about the global structure of the problem, but only locally instead. We show that under standard regularity assumptions, our algorithm generates candidate solutions that converge to the true Pareto set in Hausdorff distance. Empirically, it consistently outperforms the global LLM-based multi-objective optimizer and is on par with standard evolutionary and Bayesian optimization algorithm on synthetic and real-world benchmarks.

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arXiv2025

MixtureVitae: Open Web-Scale Pretraining Dataset With High Quality Instruction and Reasoning Data Built from Permissive-First Text Sources

We present MixtureVitae, an open-access pretraining corpus built to minimize legal risk while providing strong downstream performance. MixtureVitae follows a permissive-first, risk-mitigated sourcing strategy that combines public-domain and permissively licensed text (e.g., CC-BY/Apache) with carefully justified low-risk additions (e.g., government works and EU TDM-eligible sources). MixtureVitae adopts a simple, single-stage pretraining recipe that integrates a large proportion of permissive synthetic instruction and reasoning data-signals typically introduced during post-training and generally scarce in permissive web corpora. We categorize all sources into a three-tier scheme that reflects varying risk levels and provide shard-level provenance metadata to enable risk-aware usage. In controlled experiments using the open-sci-ref training protocol (fixed architectures and hyperparameters; 50B and 300B token budgets across 130M-1.7B parameters), models trained on MixtureVitae consistently outperform other permissive datasets across a suite of standard benchmarks, and at the 1.7B-parameters/300B-tokens setting, they surpass FineWeb-Edu and approach DCLM late in training. Performance is particularly strong on MMLU and on math and code benchmarks: a 1.7B model pretrained on 300B MixtureVitae tokens matches or exceeds a strong 1.7B instruction-tuned baseline on GSM8K, HumanEval, and MBPP, despite using over 36 times fewer tokens (300B vs. ~11T). Supported by a thorough decontamination analysis, these results show that permissive-first data with high instruction and reasoning density, tiered by licensing and provenance-related risk, can provide a practical and risk-mitigated foundation for training capable LLMs, reducing reliance on broad web scrapes without sacrificing competitiveness. Code: https://github.com/ontocord/mixturevitae

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arXiv2025

Open-sci-ref-0.01: open and reproducible reference baselines for language model and dataset comparison

We introduce open-sci-ref, a family of dense transformer models trained as research baselines across multiple model (0.13B to 1.7B parameters) and token scales (up to 1T) on 8 recent open reference datasets. Evaluating the models on various standardized benchmarks, our training runs set establishes reference points that enable researchers to assess the sanity and quality of alternative training approaches across scales and datasets. Intermediate checkpoints allow comparison and studying of the training dynamics. The established reference baselines allow training procedures to be compared through their scaling trends, aligning them on a common compute axis. Comparison of open reference datasets reveals that training on NemoTron-CC HQ consistently outperforms other reference datasets, followed by DCLM-baseline and FineWeb-Edu. In addition to intermediate training checkpoints, the release includes logs, code, and downstream evaluations to simplify reproduction, standardize comparison, and facilitate future research.

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arXiv2025

TabArena: A Living Benchmark for Machine Learning on Tabular Data

With the growing popularity of deep learning and foundation models for tabular data, the need for standardized and reliable benchmarks is higher than ever. However, current benchmarks are static. Their design is not updated even if flaws are discovered, model versions are updated, or new models are released. To address this, we introduce TabArena, the first continuously maintained living tabular benchmarking system. To launch TabArena, we manually curate a representative collection of datasets and well-implemented models, conduct a large-scale benchmarking study to initialize a public leaderboard, and assemble a team of experienced maintainers. Our results highlight the influence of validation method and ensembling of hyperparameter configurations to benchmark models at their full potential. While gradient-boosted trees are still strong contenders on practical tabular datasets, we observe that deep learning methods have caught up under larger time budgets with ensembling. At the same time, foundation models excel on smaller datasets. Finally, we show that ensembles across models advance the state-of-the-art in tabular machine learning. We observe that some deep learning models are overrepresented in cross-model ensembles due to validation set overfitting, and we encourage model developers to address this issue. We launch TabArena with a public leaderboard, reproducible code, and maintenance protocols to create a living benchmark available at https://tabarena.ai.

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arXiv2025

Improving LLM-based Global Optimization with Search Space Partitioning

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently emerged as effective surrogate models and candidate generators within global optimization frameworks for expensive blackbox functions. Despite promising results, LLM-based methods often struggle in high-dimensional search spaces or when lacking domain-specific priors, leading to sparse or uninformative suggestions. To overcome these limitations, we propose HOLLM, a novel global optimization algorithm that enhances LLM-driven sampling by partitioning the search space into promising subregions. Each subregion acts as a ``meta-arm'' selected via a bandit-inspired scoring mechanism that effectively balances exploration and exploitation. Within each selected subregion, an LLM then proposes high-quality candidate points, without any explicit domain knowledge. Empirical evaluation on standard optimization benchmarks shows that HOLLM consistently matches or surpasses leading global optimization methods, while substantially outperforming global LLM-based sampling strategies.

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arXiv2025

EquiTabPFN: A Target-Permutation Equivariant Prior Fitted Networks

Recent foundational models for tabular data, such as TabPFN, excel at adapting to new tasks via in-context learning, but remain constrained to a fixed, pre-defined number of target dimensions-often necessitating costly ensembling strategies. We trace this constraint to a deeper architectural shortcoming: these models lack target equivariance, so that permuting target dimension orderings alters their predictions. This deficiency gives rise to an irreducible "equivariance gap", an error term that introduces instability in predictions. We eliminate this gap by designing a fully target-equivariant architecture-ensuring permutation invariance via equivariant encoders, decoders, and a bi-attention mechanism. Empirical evaluation on standard classification benchmarks shows that, on datasets with more classes than those seen during pre-training, our model matches or surpasses existing methods while incurring lower computational overhead.

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arXiv2025

Tuning LLM Judge Design Decisions for 1/1000 of the Cost

Evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs) often requires costly human annotations. To address this, LLM-based judges have been proposed, which compare the outputs of two LLMs enabling the ranking of models without human intervention. While several approaches have been proposed, many confounding factors are present between different papers. For instance the model, the prompt and other hyperparameters are typically changed at the same time making apple-to-apple comparisons challenging. In this paper, we propose to systematically analyze and tune the hyperparameters of LLM judges. To alleviate the high cost of evaluating a judge, we propose to leverage multi-objective multi-fidelity which allows to find judges that trade accuracy for cost and also significantly reduce the cost of the search. Our method identifies judges that not only outperform existing benchmarks in accuracy and cost-efficiency but also utilize open-weight models, ensuring greater accessibility and reproducibility. The code to reproduce our experiments is available at this repository https://github.com/geoalgo/judgetuning .

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arXiv2025

From Tables to Time: Extending TabPFN-v2 to Time Series Forecasting

Recent progress in foundation models has enabled strong zero-shot performance for time series forecasting. In this work, we show that such capabilities can also emerge from tabular foundation models. We introduce TabPFN-TS, a simple method that treats forecasting as a tabular regression problem by combining lightweight temporal featurization with the pretrained TabPFN-v2. This formulation requires no time-series-specific pretraining and naturally supports both univariate and covariate-informed forecasting. Despite its compact size (11M parameters), TabPFN-TS achieves state-of-the-art performance on covariate-informed forecasting and competitive accuracy on univariate forecasting across the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks. We further provide controlled analyses examining how the model interprets temporal structure, how featurization choices affect accuracy, and how forecasts change under alternative tabular backbones. Together, our results demonstrate that tabular foundation models--when paired with suitable temporal features--offer an efficient and versatile alternative for forecasting, bridging tabular and time-series learning within a unified framework. Code is available at https://github.com/PriorLabs/tabpfn-time-series.

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arXiv2024

Mamba4Cast: Efficient Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting with State Space Models

This paper introduces Mamba4Cast, a zero-shot foundation model for time series forecasting. Based on the Mamba architecture and inspired by Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs), Mamba4Cast generalizes robustly across diverse time series tasks without the need for dataset specific fine-tuning. Mamba4Cast's key innovation lies in its ability to achieve strong zero-shot performance on real-world datasets while having much lower inference times than time series foundation models based on the transformer architecture. Trained solely on synthetic data, the model generates forecasts for entire horizons in a single pass, outpacing traditional auto-regressive approaches. Our experiments show that Mamba4Cast performs competitively against other state-of-the-art foundation models in various data sets while scaling significantly better with the prediction length. The source code can be accessed at https://github.com/automl/Mamba4Cast.

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arXiv2024

GAMformer: Bridging Tabular Foundation Models and Interpretable Machine Learning

While interpretability is crucial for machine learning applications in safety-critical domains and for regulatory compliance, existing tabular foundation models like TabPFN lack transparency. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) provide the needed interpretability through their additive structure, but traditional GAM methods rely on iterative learning algorithms (such as splines, boosted trees, or neural networks) that are fundamentally incompatible with the in-context learning paradigm of foundation models. In this paper, we introduce GAMformer, the first tabular foundation model for GAMs that bridges the gap between the power of foundation models and the interpretability requirements of critical real-world applications. GAMformer estimates GAM shape functions in a single forward pass using in-context learning, representing a significant departure from conventional iterative approaches. Building on previous research on tabular foundation models, we train GAMformer exclusively on synthetically generated tables to prevent data leakage. Our experiments demonstrate that GAMformer performs comparably to other leading GAMs across various classification benchmarks.

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arXiv2024

ARLBench: Flexible and Efficient Benchmarking for Hyperparameter Optimization in Reinforcement Learning

Hyperparameters are a critical factor in reliably training well-performing reinforcement learning (RL) agents. Unfortunately, developing and evaluating automated approaches for tuning such hyperparameters is both costly and time-consuming. As a result, such approaches are often only evaluated on a single domain or algorithm, making comparisons difficult and limiting insights into their generalizability. We propose ARLBench, a benchmark for hyperparameter optimization (HPO) in RL that allows comparisons of diverse HPO approaches while being highly efficient in evaluation. To enable research into HPO in RL, even in settings with low compute resources, we select a representative subset of HPO tasks spanning a variety of algorithm and environment combinations. This selection allows for generating a performance profile of an automated RL (AutoRL) method using only a fraction of the compute previously necessary, enabling a broader range of researchers to work on HPO in RL. With the extensive and large-scale dataset on hyperparameter landscapes that our selection is based on, ARLBench is an efficient, flexible, and future-oriented foundation for research on AutoRL. Both the benchmark and the dataset are available at https://github.com/automl/arlbench.

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