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David Vokrouhlicky

Publications and source records attributed to David Vokrouhlicky.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Dynamics of planetary rings under thermal forces

Planetary rings provide natural laboratories for studying the fundamental processes that govern the evolution of planetary systems. However, several key features, such as the sharp inner edges of Saturn's rings remain unresolved. In this work, we introduce and quantify the Eclipse-Yarkovsky (EY) effect, a thermal torque arising from asymmetric thermal emission of particles during planetary eclipses, which is effective for particles larger than millimeters in size. We formulate this effect within a continuum framework appropriate for collisionally coupled planetary rings and derive the continuum evolution equation that includes the EY torque and viscous diffusion (Eq.26), constraining its magnitude using ring particle spin distributions obtained from N-body simulations. We find that the EY effect systematically produces a positive angular momentum flux that could overcome the viscous torque, driving ring material outward and leading to long-term decretion. The total EY torque principally depends on the optical depth, in which we identify three dynamical regimes: dense, transitional, and tenuous regimes, each exhibiting distinct evolutionary pathways. In the dense or transition regimes, the EY torque can produce a sharp inner edge such as that of Saturn's A ring. In the tenuous regime, it can drive an entire ring outward while preserving shape. This outward transport may also facilitate satellite formation beyond the Roche limit. We also quantitatively show that planetary thermal radiation on rings exerts an opposing torque, namely planetary-Yarkovsky effect, whose importance depends on planetary emissivity and ring-particle albedo, and may lead to inward transport in Saturn's close-in rings.

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Rotational Light-curve Recovery and Predictions of the LSST Yield of Hildas

The Hilda population occupies the stable 3:2 mean-motion resonance of Jupiter and provides a window into solar system evolution, including collisional processes. The National Science Foundation and Department of Energy Vera C. Rubin Observatory will conduct the 10 yr Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We present a simulation of Rubin's discovery of Hildas with the Sorcha survey simulator and the recovery of their light curves. We constructed a synthetic Hilda population model that includes distributions of orbital properties, sizes, collisional families, and colors. We applied three distinct populations of sinusoidal light curves to this same orbit-size-color model: (1) a Gaussian kernel density estimate fit to rotational periods and amplitudes from the Lightcurve Database (LCDB), (2) a superfast rotator population, and (3) a superslow rotator population. Over the 10 yr simulated survey, we predict LSST will discover ~33,400 Hildas, a fivefold increase over the known population. Using a multiband Lomb-Scargle Periodogram via Astropy we confidently recover ~45.96% of Hildas in our LCDB-based population, higher than typical in observational searches. This suggests our light-curve population model may differ from the intrinsic population. We find strong biases in light-curve amplitude, with recovery efficiency dropping sharply below 0.1 magnitudes, while biases from rotational period are comparatively weak aside from cadence-related features such as LSST's ~36 minute revisit cadence. Our recovery efficiency is likely overestimated due to our assumption of constant sinusoidal light curves, which correspond to optimal pole orientations. These results are the first test of light-curve recovery from simulated LSST observations.

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Discovery of 63 New Young Asteroid Families

We searched for young asteroid families -- those with ages t_age < 10 Myr and at least three members -- using the proper element catalog from Nesvorny et al. (2024). Our approach employed the Hierarchical Clustering Method (HCM) in a five-dimensional space of proper orbital elements: semimajor axis, eccentricity, inclination, proper nodal longitude, and proper perihelion longitude. The proper longitudes were calculated for various times in the past. Any convergence of these angles at times t < 10 Myr ago was automatically identified by our algorithm as a clustering event in 5D space at time t. Using this method, we successfully recovered all previously known young families (over 40) and discovered 63 additional ones. The formation ages of these families were determined through backward orbital integrations. To validate orbital convergence, we applied three different methods and obtained generally consistent results. Notably, the vast majority of identified young families have the formation ages t_age < 1 Myr. The number and properties of these families provide valuable constraints on the frequency of recent large cratering or catastrophic collisions, offering new insights into the ongoing collisional evolution of the main asteroid belt. Alternatively, at least some of the families identified here could have been produced by the spin-up and rotational fission of their parent bodies. Future studies should address the relative importance of collisions and rotational fission for young asteroid families identified here.

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Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Near-Earth Objects, Main Belt Asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, and Trans-Neptunian Objects

The NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a new 8m-class survey facility presently being commissioned in Chile, expected to begin the 10yr-long Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the end of 2025. Using the purpose-built Sorcha survey simulator (Merritt et al. In Press), and near-final observing cadence, we perform the first high-fidelity simulation of LSST's solar system catalog for key small body populations. We show that the final LSST catalog will deliver over 1.1 billion observations of small bodies and raise the number of known objects to 1.27E5 near-Earth objects, 5.09E6 main belt asteroids, 1.09E5 Jupiter Trojans, and 3.70E4 trans-Neptunian objects. These represent 4-9x more objects than are presently known in each class, making LSST the largest source of data for small body science in this and the following decade. We characterize the measurements available for these populations, including orbits, griz colors, and lightcurves, and point out science opportunities they open. Importantly, we show that ~70% of the main asteroid belt and more distant populations will be discovered in the first two years of the survey, making high-impact solar system science possible from very early on. We make our simulated LSST catalog publicly available, allowing researchers to test their methods on an up-to-date, representative, full-scale simulation of LSST data.

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A Spiral Structure in the Inner Oort Cloud

As the Galactic tide acts to decouple bodies from the scattered disk it creates a spiral structure in physical space that is roughly 15,000 au in length. The spiral is long-lived and persists in the inner Oort cloud to the present time. Here we discuss dynamics underlying the Oort spiral and (feeble) prospects for its observational detection.

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Catalog of Proper Orbits for 1.25 Million Main Belt Asteroids and Discovery of 136 New Collisional Families

The proper elements of asteroids are obtained from the instantaneous orbital elements by removing periodic oscillations produced by gravitational interactions with planets. They are unchanging in time, at least if chaotic dynamics and non-gravitational forces could be ignored, and can therefore be used to identify fragments of major collisions (asteroid families) that happened eons ago. Here we present a new catalog of proper elements for 1.25 million main belt asteroids. We explain the methodology, evaluate uncertainties, and discuss how the new catalog can be used to identify asteroid families. A systematic search for families yielded 153 cases not reported in Nesvorn\'y at al. (2015) -- 17 of these cases were identified in various other publications, 136 cases are new discoveries. There are now 274 families in the asteroid belt in total (plus a handful of families in the resonant Hilda population). We analyzed several compact families in detail. The new family around the middle belt asteroid (9332) 1990SB1 (9 members) is the youngest family found so far (estimated formation only 16-17 kyr ago). New families (1217) Maximiliana, (6084) Bascom, (10164) Akusekijima and (70208) 1999RX33 all formed 0.5-2.5 Myr ago. The (2110) Moore-Sitterly family is a close pair of relatively large bodies, 2110 and 44612, and 15 small members all located sunwards from 2110 and 44612, presumably a consequence of the Yarkovsky drift over the estimated family age (1.2-1.5 Myr). A systematic characterization of the new asteroid families is left for future work.

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The Dynamical Origins of the Dark Comets and a Proposed Evolutionary Track

So-called 'dark comets' are small, morphologically inactive near-Earth objects (NEOs) that exhibit nongravitational accelerations inconsistent with radiative effects. These objects exhibit short rotational periods (minutes to hours), where measured. We find that the strengths required to prevent catastrophic disintegration are consistent with those measured in cometary nuclei and expected in rubble pile objects. We hypothesize that these dark comets are the end result of a rotational fragmentation cascade, which is consistent with their measured physical properties. We calculate the predicted size-frequency distribution for objects evolving under this model. Using dynamical simulations, we further demonstrate that the majority of these bodies originated from the $\nu_6$ resonance, implying the existence of volatiles in the current inner main belt. Moreover, one of the dark comets, (523599) 2003 RM, likely originated from the outer main belt, although a JFC origin is also plausible. These results provide strong evidence that volatiles from a reservoir in the inner main belt are present in the near-Earth environment.

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The Yarkovsky effect on the long-term evolution of binary asteroids

We explore the Yarkovsky effect on small binary asteroids. While significant attention has been given to the binary YORP effect, the Yarkovsky effect is often overlooked. We develop an analytical model for the binary Yarkovsky effect, considering both the Yarkovsky-Schach and planetary Yarkovsky components, and verify it against thermophysical numerical simulations. We find that the Yarkovsky force could change the mutual orbit when the asteroid's spin period is unequal to the orbital period. Our analysis predicts new evolutionary paths for binaries. For a prograde asynchronous secondary, the Yarkovsky force will migrate the satellite towards the location of the synchronous orbit on ~100 kyr timescales, which could be faster than other synchronization processes such as YORP and tides. For retrograde secondaries, the Yarkovsky force always migrates the secondary outwards, which could produce asteroid pairs with opposite spin poles. Satellites spinning faster than the Roche limit orbit period (e.g. from ~4h to ~10h) will migrate inwards until they disrupt, reshape, or form a contact binary. We also predict a short-lived equilibrium state for asynchronous secondaries where the Yarkovsky force is balanced by tides. We provide calculations of the Yarkovsky-induced drift rate for known asynchronous binaries. If the NASA DART impact broke Dimorphos from synchronous rotation, we predict that Dimorphos's orbit will shrink by \dot a ~ 7 cm/yr, which can be measured by the Hera mission. We also speculate that the Yarkovsky force may have synchronized the Dinkinesh-Selam system after a possible merger of Selam's two lobes.

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NEOMOD 3: The Debiased Size Distribution of Near Earth Objects

Our previous model (NEOMOD2) for the orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) was calibrated on the Catalina Sky Survey observations between 2013 and 2022. Here we extend NEOMOD2 to include visible albedo information from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer. The debiased albedo distribution of NEOs can be approximated by the sum of two Rayleigh distributions with the scale parameters p_V,dark=0.03 and p_V,bright=0.17. We find evidence for smaller NEOs having (on average) higher albedos than larger NEOs; this is likely a consequence of the size-dependent sampling of different main belt sources. These inferences and the absolute magnitude distribution from NEOMOD2 are used to construct the debiased size distribution of NEOs. We estimate 830+/-60 NEOs with diameters D>1 km and 20,000+/-2,000 NEOs with D>140 m. The new model, NEOMOD3, is available via the NEOMOD Simulator -- an easy-to-operate code that can be used to generate user-defined samples (orbits, sizes and albedos) from the model.

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NEOMOD 2: An Updated Model of Near-Earth Objects from a Decade of Catalina Sky Survey Observations

Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) is a major survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). In a recent work, we used CSS observations from 2005-2012 to develop a new population model of NEOs (NEOMOD). CSS's G96 telescope was upgraded in 2016 and detected over 10,000 unique NEOs since then. Here we characterize the NEO detection efficiency of G96 and use G96's NEO detections from 2013-2022 to update NEOMOD. This resolves previous model inconsistencies related to the population of large NEOs. We estimate there are 936+/-29 NEOs with absolute magnitude H<17.75 (diameter D>1 km for the reference albedo p_V=0.14). The slope of the NEO size distribution for H=25-28 is found to be relatively shallow (cumulative index 2.6) and the number of H<28 NEOs (D>9 m) is determined to be (1.20+/-0.04)x10^7. Small NEOs have a different orbital distribution and higher impact probabilities than large NEOs. We estimate 0.034+/-0.002 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is near the low end of the impact flux range inferred from atmospheric bolide observations. Relative to a model where all NEOs are delivered directly from the main belt, the population of small NEOs detected by G96 shows an excess of low-eccentricity orbits with a=1--1.6 au that appears to increase with H. We suggest that the population of very small NEOs is boosted by tidal disruption of large NEOs during close encounters to the terrestrial planets. When the effect of tidal disruption is (approximately) accounted for in the model, we estimate 0.06+/-0.01 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is more in line with the bolide data.

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Isotopic Trichotomy of Main Belt Asteroids from Implantation of Outer Solar System Planetesimals

Recent analyses of samples from asteroid (162173) Ryugu returned by JAXA's Hayabusa2 mission suggest that Ryugu and CI chondrites formed in the same region of the protoplanetary disk, in a reservoir that was isolated from the source regions of other carbonaceous (C-type) asteroids. Here we conduct $N$-body simulations in which CI planetesimals are assumed to have formed in the Uranus/Neptune zone at $\sim15$--25 au from the Sun. We show that CI planetesimals are scattered by giant planets toward the asteroid belt where their orbits can be circularized by aerodynamic gas drag. We find that the dynamical implantation of CI asteroids from $\sim15$--25 au is very efficient with $\sim 5$\% of $\sim 100$-km planetesimals reaching stable orbits in the asteroid belt by the end of the protoplanetary gas disk lifetime. The efficiency is reduced when planetesimal ablation is accounted for. The implanted population subsequently evolved by collisions and was depleted by dynamical instabilities. The model can explain why CIs are isotopically distinct from other C-type asteroids which presumably formed at $\sim5$--10 au.

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Seasonally Varying Outgassing as an Explanation for Dark Comet Accelerations

Significant nonradial, nongravitational accelerations with magnitudes incompatible with radiation-driven effects have been reported in seven small, photometrically inactive near-Earth objects. Two of these objects exhibit large transverse accelerations (i.e., within the orbital plane but orthogonal to the radial direction), and six exhibit significant out-of-plane accelerations. Here, we find that anisotropic outgassing resulting from differential heating on a nucleus with nonzero spin-pole obliquity, averaged over an eccentric orbit, can explain these accelerations for most of the objects. This balanced outgassing model depends on three parameters -- the spin pole orientation (R.A. and Dec.) and an acceleration magnitude. For these "dark comets" (excepting 2003 RM), we obtain parameter values that reproduce the observed nongravitational accelerations. We derive formulae for the component accelerations under certain assumptions for the acceleration scaling over heliocentric distance. Although we lack estimates of these objects' spin axes to confirm our values, this mechanism is nevertheless a plausible explanation for the observed accelerations, and produces accurate perturbations to the heliocentric motions of most of these objects. This model may also be applied to active objects outside of the dark comets group.

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Radial Distribution of Distant Trans-Neptunian Objects Points to Sun's Formation in a Stellar Cluster

The Scattered Disk Objects (SDOs) are a population of trans-Neptunian bodies with semimajor axes $50< a \lesssim 1000$ au and perihelion distances $q \gtrsim 30$ au. The detached SDOs with orbits beyond the reach of Neptune (roughly $q>35$~au) are of special interest here as an important constraint on the early evolution of the outer Solar System. The semimajor axis profile of detached SDOs at 50--500~au, as characterized from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), is radially extended, but previous dynamical models of Neptune's early migration produce a relatively compact profile. This problem is most likely related to Sun's birth environment in a stellar cluster. We perform new dynamical simulations that account for cluster effects and show that the orbital distribution of SDOs can be explained if a particularly close stellar encounter occurred early on (e.g., M dwarf with the mass $\simeq 0.2$ $M_\odot$ approaching the Sun at $\simeq 200$ au). For such an encounter to happen with a reasonably high probability the Sun must have formed in a stellar cluster with $ηT \gtrsim 10^4$ Myr pc$^{-3}$, where $η$ is the stellar number density and $T$ is the Sun's residence time in the cluster.

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The Collisional Evolution of the Primordial Kuiper Belt, Its Destabilized Population, and the Trojan Asteroids

The tumultuous early era of outer solar system evolution culminated when Neptune migrated across the primordial Kuiper belt (PKB) and triggered a dynamical instability among the giant planets. This event led to the ejection of approximately 99.9\% of the PKB (here called the destabilized population), heavy bombardment of the giant planet satellites, and the capture of Jupiter's Trojans. While this scenario has been widely tested using dynamical models, there have been fewer investigations into how the PKB, its destabilized population, and the Trojans experienced collisional evolution. Here we examined this issue for all three populations with the code Boulder. Our constraints included the size-frequency distributions (SFDs) of the Trojan asteroids and craters on the giant planet satellites. Using this combination, we solved for the unknown disruption law affecting bodies in these populations. The weakest ones, from an impact energy per mass perspective, were 20 m in diameter. Overall, collisional evolution produces a power-law-like shape for multikilometer Trojans and a wavy-shaped SFD in the PKB and destabilized populations. The latter can explain (i) the shapes of the ancient and younger crater SFDs observed on the giant planet satellites, (ii) the shapes of the Jupiter family and long-period comet SFDs, which experienced different degrees of collision evolution, and (iii) the present-day impact frequency of superbolides on Jupiter and smaller projectiles on Saturn's rings. Our model results also indicate that many observed comets, most which are smaller than 10 km in diameter, are likely to be gravitational aggregates formed by large-scale collision events.

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NEOMOD: A New Orbital Distribution Model for Near Earth Objects

Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are a transient population of small bodies with orbits near or in the terrestrial planet region. They represent a mid-stage in the dynamical cycle of asteroids and comets, which starts with their removal from the respective source regions -- the main belt and trans-Neptunian scattered disk -- and ends as bodies impact planets, disintegrate near the Sun, or are ejected from the Solar System. Here we develop a new orbital model of NEOs by numerically integrating asteroid orbits from main belt sources and calibrating the results on observations of the Catalina Sky Survey. The results imply a size-dependent sampling of the main belt with the $ν_6$ and 3:1 resonances producing $\simeq 30$\% of NEOs with absolute magnitudes $H = 15$ and $\simeq 80$\% of NEOs with $H = 25$. Hence, the large and small NEOs have different orbital distributions. The inferred flux of $H<18$ bodies into the 3:1 resonance can be sustained only if the main-belt asteroids near the resonance drift toward the resonance at the maximal Yarkovsky rate ($\simeq 2 \times 10^{-4}$ au Myr$^{-1}$ for diameter $D=1$ km and semimajor axis $a=2.5$~au). This implies obliquities $θ\simeq 0^\circ$ for $a<2.5$~au and $θ\simeq 180^\circ$ for $a>2.5$~au, both in the immediate neighborhood of the resonance (the same applies to other resonances as well). We confirm the size-dependent disruption of asteroids near the Sun found in previous studies. An interested researcher can use the publicly available NEOMOD Simulator to generate user-defined samples of NEOs from our model.

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Early Bombardment of the Moon: Connecting the Lunar Crater Record to the Terrestrial Planet Formation

The lunar crater record features $\sim 50$ basins. The radiometric dating of Apollo samples indicates that the Imbrium basin formed relatively late -- from the planet formation perspective -- some $\simeq 3.9$ Ga. Here we develop a dynamical model for impactors in the inner solar system to provide context for the interpretation of the lunar crater record. The contribution of cometary impactors is found to be insignificant. Asteroids produced most large impacts on the terrestrial worlds in the last $\simeq 3$ Gyr. The great majority of early impactors were rocky planetesimals left behind at $\sim 0.5$--1.5 au after the terrestrial planet accretion. The population of terrestrial planetesimals was reduced by disruptive collisions in the first $t \sim 20$ Myr after the gas disk dispersal. We estimate that there were $\sim 4 \times 10^5$ diameter $d>10$ km bodies when the Moon formed (total planetesimal mass $\sim 0.015$ $M_{\rm Earth}$ at $t \sim 50$ Myr). The early bombardment of the Moon was intense. To accommodate $\sim 50$ known basins, the lunar basins that formed before $\simeq 4.35$--4.41 Ga must have been erased. The late formation of Imbrium occurs with a $\sim 15$--35\% probability in our model. About 20 $d>10$-km bodies were expected to hit the Earth between 2.5 and 3.5 Ga, which is comparable to the number of known spherule beds in the late Archean. We discuss implications of our model for the lunar/Martian crater chronologies, Late Veneer, and noble gases in the Earth atmosphere.

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Formation of Lunar Basins from Impacts of Leftover Planetesimals

The Moon holds important clues to the early evolution of the Solar System. Some 50 impact basins (crater diameter D>300 km) have been recognized on the lunar surface, implying that the early impact flux was much higher than it is now. The basin-forming impactors were suspected to be asteroids released from an inner extension of the main belt (1.8-2.0 au). Here we show that most impactors were instead rocky planetesimals left behind at 0.5-1.5 au after the terrestrial planet accretion. The number of basins expected from impacts of leftover planetesimals largely exceeds the number of known lunar basins, suggesting that the first 200 Myr of impacts is not recorded on the lunar surface. The Imbrium basin formation (age 3.92 Gyr; impactor diameter d~100 km) occurs with a 15-35% probability in our model. Imbrium must have formed unusually late to have only two smaller basins (Orientale and Schrodinger) forming afterwards. The model predicts 20 d>10-km impacts on the Earth 2.5-3.5 Gyr ago (Ga), which is comparable to the number of known spherule beds in the late Archean.

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Asteroid Families: properties, recent advances and future opportunities

Collisions are one of the key processes shaping planetary systems. Asteroid families are outcomes of such collisions still identifiable across our solar system. The families provide a unique view of catastrophic disruption phenomena and have been in the focus of planetary scientists for more than a century. Most of them are located in the main belt, a ring of asteroids between Mars and Jupiter. Here we review the basic properties of the families, discuss some recent advances, and anticipate future challenges. This review pays more attention to dynamic aspects such as family identification, age determination, and long-term evolution. The text, however, goes beyond that. Especially, we cover the details of young families that see the major advances in the last years, and we anticipate it will develop even faster in the future. We also discuss the relevance of asteroid families for water-ice content in the asteroid belt and our current knowledge on links between families and main-belt comets.

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