arXiv subjects

David W. Hogg

Publications and source records attributed to David W. Hogg.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Dimensionless machine learning: Imposing exact units equivariance

Units equivariance (or units covariance) is the exact symmetry that follows from the requirement that relationships among measured quantities of physics relevance must obey self-consistent dimensional scalings. Here, we express this symmetry in terms of a (non-compact) group action, and we employ dimensional analysis and ideas from equivariant machine learning to provide a methodology for exactly units-equivariant machine learning: For any given learning task, we first construct a dimensionless version of its inputs using classic results from dimensional analysis, and then perform inference in the dimensionless space. Our approach can be used to impose units equivariance across a broad range of machine learning methods which are equivariant to rotations and other groups. We discuss the in-sample and out-of-sample prediction accuracy gains one can obtain in contexts like symbolic regression and emulation, where symmetry is important. We illustrate our approach with simple numerical examples involving dynamical systems in physics and ecology.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

GREAT3 results I: systematic errors in shear estimation and the impact of real galaxy morphology

We present first results from the third GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing (GREAT3) challenge, the third in a sequence of challenges for testing methods of inferring weak gravitational lensing shear distortions from simulated galaxy images. GREAT3 was divided into experiments to test three specific questions, and included simulated space- and ground-based data with constant or cosmologically-varying shear fields. The simplest (control) experiment included parametric galaxies with a realistic distribution of signal-to-noise, size, and ellipticity, and a complex point spread function (PSF). The other experiments tested the additional impact of realistic galaxy morphology, multiple exposure imaging, and the uncertainty about a spatially-varying PSF; the last two questions will be explored in Paper II. The 24 participating teams competed to estimate lensing shears to within systematic error tolerances for upcoming Stage-IV dark energy surveys, making 1525 submissions overall. GREAT3 saw considerable variety and innovation in the types of methods applied. Several teams now meet or exceed the targets in many of the tests conducted (to within the statistical errors). We conclude that the presence of realistic galaxy morphology in simulations changes shear calibration biases by $\sim 1$ per cent for a wide range of methods. Other effects such as truncation biases due to finite galaxy postage stamps, and the impact of galaxy type as measured by the Sérsic index, are quantified for the first time. Our results generalize previous studies regarding sensitivities to galaxy size and signal-to-noise, and to PSF properties such as seeing and defocus. Almost all methods' results support the simple model in which additive shear biases depend linearly on PSF ellipticity.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

Vertical motion in the Galactic disc: unwinding the Snail

The distribution of stars in the Milky Way disc shows a spiral structure--the Snail--in the space of velocity and position normal to the Galactic mid-plane. The Snail appears as straight lines in the vertical frequency--vertical phase plane when effects from sample selection are removed. Their slope has the dimension of inverse time, with the simplest interpretation being the inverse age of the Snail. Here, we devise and fit a simple model in which the spiral starts as a lopsided perturbation from steady state, that winds up into the present-day morphology. The winding occurs because the vertical frequency decreases with vertical action. We use data from stars in Gaia EDR3 that have measured radial velocities, pruned by simple distance and photometric selection functions. We divide the data into boxels of dynamical invariants (radial action, angular momentum); our model fits the data well in many of the boxels. The model parameters have physical interpretations: one, $A$, is a perturbation amplitude, and one, $t$, is interpretable in the simplest models as the time since the event that caused the Snail. We find trends relating the strength and age to angular momentum: (i) the amplitude $A$ is small at low angular momentum ($<1\,600\mathrm{\,kpc\,km\,s}^{-1}$ or guiding-centre radius $< 7.3\,$kpc), and over a factor of three larger, with strong variations, in the outer disc; (ii) there is no single well-defined perturbation time, with $t$ varying between 0.2 and 0.6 Gyr. Residuals between the data and the model display systematic trends, implying that the data call for more complex models.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Mapping Dark Matter with Extragalactic Stellar Streams: the Case of Centaurus A

In the coming decade, thousands of stellar streams will be observed in the halos of external galaxies. What fundamental discoveries will we make about dark matter from these streams? As a first attempt to look at these questions, we model Magellan/Megacam imaging of the Centaurus A's (Cen A) disrupting dwarf companion Dwarf 3 (Dw3) and its associated stellar stream, to find out what can be learned about the Cen A dark-matter halo. We develop a novel external galaxy stream-fitting technique and generate model stellar streams that reproduce the stream morphology visible in the imaging. We find that there are many viable stream models that fit the data well, with reasonable parameters, provided that Cen A has a halo mass larger than M$_{200}$ $>4.70\times 10^{12}$ M$_{\odot}$. There is a second stream in Cen A's halo that is also reproduced within the context of this same dynamical model. However, stream morphology in the imaging alone does not uniquely determine the mass or mass distribution for the Cen A halo. In particular, the stream models with high likelihood show covariances between the inferred Cen A mass distribution, the inferred Dw3 progenitor mass, the Dw3 velocity, and the Dw3 line-of-sight position. We show that these degeneracies can be broken with radial-velocity measurements along the stream, and that a single radial velocity measurement puts a substantial lower limit on the halo mass. These results suggest that targeted radial-velocity measurements will be critical if we want to learn about dark matter from extragalactic stellar streams.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Magnitudes, distance moduli, bolometric corrections, and so much more

This pedagogical document about stellar photometry - aimed at those for whom astronomical arcana seem arcane - endeavours to explain the concepts of magnitudes, color indices, absolute magnitudes, distance moduli, extinctions, attenuations, color excesses, K corrections, and bolometric corrections. I include some discussion of observational technique, and some discussion of epistemology, but the primary focus here is on the theoretical or interpretive connections between the observational astronomical quantities and the physical properties of the observational targets.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

An empirical model of the Gaia DR3 selection function

Interpreting and modelling astronomical catalogues requires an understanding of the catalogues' completeness or selection function: objects of what properties had a chance to end up in the catalogue. Here we set out to empirically quantify the completeness of the overall Gaia DR3 catalogue. This task is not straightforward because Gaia is the all-sky optical survey with the highest angular resolution to date and no consistent ``ground truth'' exists to allow direct comparisons. However, well-characterised deeper imaging enables an empirical assessment of Gaia's $G$-band completeness across parts of the sky. On this basis, we devised a simple analytical completeness model of Gaia as a function of the observed $G$ magnitude and position over the sky, which accounts for both the effects of crowding and the complex Gaia scanning law. Our model only depends on a single quantity: the median magnitude $M_{10}$ in a patch of the sky of catalogued sources with $\texttt{astrometric_matched_transits}$ $\leq 10$. $M_{10}$ reflects elementary completeness decisions in the Gaia pipeline and is computable from the Gaia DR3 catalogue itself and therefore applicable across the whole sky. We calibrate our model using the Dark Energy Camera Plane Survey (DECaPS) and test its predictions against Hubble Space Telescope observations of globular clusters. We find that our model predicts Gaia's completeness values to a few per cent across the sky. We make the model available as a part of the $\texttt{gaiasf}$ Python package built and maintained by the GaiaUnlimited project: $\texttt{https://github.com/gaia-unlimited/gaiaunlimited}$

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

A Generative Model for Quasar Spectra

We build a multi-output generative model for quasar spectra and the properties of their black hole engines, based on a Gaussian process latent-variable model. This model treats every quasar as a vector of latent properties such that the spectrum and all physical properties of the quasar are associated with non-linear functions of those latent parameters; the Gaussian process kernel functions define priors on the function space. Our generative model is trained with a justifiable likelihood function that allows us to treat heteroscedastic noise and missing data correctly, which is crucial for all astrophysical applications. It can predict simultaneously unobserved spectral regions, as well as the physical properties of quasars in held-out test data. We apply the model to rest-frame ultraviolet and optical quasar spectra for which precise black hole masses (based on reverberation mapping measurements) are available. Unlike reverberation-mapping studies, which require multi-epoch data, our model predicts black hole masses from single-epoch spectra, even with limited spectral coverage. We demonstrate the capabilities of the model by predicting black hole masses and unobserved spectral regions. We find that we predict black hole masses at close to the best possible accuracy.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

The Poor Old Heart of the Milky Way

Massive disk galaxies like our Milky Way should host an ancient, metal-poor, and centrally concentrated stellar population. This population reflects the star formation and enrichment in the few most massive progenitor components that coalesced at high redshift to form the proto-Galaxy. While metal-poor stars are known to reside in the inner few kiloparsecs of our Galaxy, current data do not yet provide a comprehensive picture of such a metal-poor "heart" of the Milky Way. We use information from Gaia DR3, especially the XP spectra, to construct a sample of 2 million bright (BP $<15.5$ mag) giant stars within $30^\circ$ of the Galactic Center with robust [M/H] estimates, $δ$ [M/H] $\lesssim 0.1$. For most sample members we can calculate orbits based on Gaia RVS velocities and astrometry. This sample reveals an extensive, ancient, and metal-poor population that includes $\sim 18,000$ stars with $-2.7<$ [M/H] $<-1.5$, representing a stellar mass of $\gtrsim 5\times 10^7$ M$_\odot$. The spatial distribution of these [M/H] $<-1.5$ stars has a Gaussian extent of only $σ_{\mathrm{R_{GC}}} \sim 2.7$ kpc around the Galactic center, with most of these orbits being confined to the inner Galaxy. At high orbital eccentricities, there is clear evidence for accreted halo stars in their pericentral orbit phase. Stars with [M/H] $< -2$ show no net rotation, whereas those with [M/H] $\sim -1$ are rotation dominated. Most of the tightly bound stars show $[α/\text{Fe}]$-enhancement and [Al/Fe]-[Mn/Fe] abundance patterns expected for an origin in the more massive portions of the proto-Galaxy. These central, metal-poor stars most likely predate the oldest part of the disk ($τ_{\text{age}}\approx 12.5$ Gyrs), which implies that they formed at $z\gtrsim 5$, forging the proto-Milky Way.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

The emptiness inside: Finding gaps, valleys, and lacunae with geometric data analysis

Discoveries of gaps in data have been important in astrophysics. For example, there are kinematic gaps opened by resonances in dynamical systems, or exoplanets of a certain radius that are empirically rare. A gap in a data set is a kind of anomaly, but in an unusual sense: Instead of being a single outlier data point, situated far from other data points, it is a region of the space, or a set of points, that is anomalous compared to its surroundings. Gaps are both interesting and hard to find and characterize, especially when they have non-trivial shapes. We present in this paper a statistic that can be used to estimate the (local) "gappiness" of a point in the data space. It uses the gradient and Hessian of the density estimate (and thus requires a twice-differentiable density estimator). This statistic can be computed at (almost) any point in the space and does not rely on optimization; it allows to highlight under-dense regions of any dimensionality and shape in a general and efficient way. We illustrate our method on the velocity distribution of nearby stars in the Milky Way disk plane, which exhibits gaps that could originate from different processes. Identifying and characterizing those gaps could help determine their origins. We provide in an Appendix implementation notes and additional considerations for finding under-densities in data, using critical points and the properties of the Hessian of the density.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

The unpopular Package: a Data-driven Approach to De-trend TESS Full Frame Image Light Curves

The majority of observed pixels on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) are delivered in the form of full frame images (FFI). However, the FFIs contain systematic effects such as pointing jitter and scattered light from the Earth and Moon that must be removed before downstream analysis. We present unpopular, an open-source Python package to de-trend TESS FFI light curves based on the causal pixel model method. Under the assumption that shared flux variations across multiple distant pixels are likely to be systematics, unpopular removes these common (i.e., popular) trends by modeling the systematics in a given pixel's light curve as a linear combination of light curves from many other distant pixels. To prevent overfitting we employ ridge regression and a train-and-test framework where the data points being de-trended are separated from those used to obtain the model coefficients. We also allow for simultaneous fitting with a polynomial model to capture any long-term astrophysical trends. We validate our method by de-trending different sources (e.g., supernova, tidal disruption event, exoplanet-hosting star, fast rotating star) and comparing our light curves to those obtained by other pipelines when appropriate. We also show that unpopular is able to preserve sector-length astrophysical signals, allowing for the extraction of multi-sector light curves from the FFI data. The unpopular source code and tutorials are freely available online.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

Stellar Abundance Maps of the Milky Way Disk

To understand the formation of the Milky Way's prominent bar it is important to know whether stars in the bar differ in the chemical element composition of their birth material as compared to disk stars. This requires stellar abundance measurements for large samples across the Milky Way's body. Such samples, e.g. luminous red giant stars observed by SDSS's Apogee survey, will inevitably span a range of stellar parameters; as a consequence, both modelling imperfections and stellar evolution may preclude consistent and precise estimates of their chemical composition at a level of purported bar signatures, which has left current analyses of a chemically distinct bar inconclusive. Here, we develop a new self-calibration approach to eliminate both modelling and astrophysical abundance systematics among red giant branch (RGB) stars of different luminosities (and hence surface gravity $\log g$). We apply our method to $48,853$ luminous Apogee DR16 RGB stars to construct spatial abundance maps of $20$ chemical elements near the Milky Way's mid-plane, covering Galactocentric radii of $0\,{\rm kpc}<R_{\rm GC}<20\,\rm kpc$. Our results indicate that there are no abundance variations whose geometry matches that of the bar, and that the mean abundance gradients vary smoothly and monotonically with Galactocentric radius. We confirm that the high-$α$ disk is chemically homogeneous, without spatial gradients. Furthermore, we present the most precise [Fe/H] vs. $R_{\rm GC}$ gradient to date with a slope of $-0.057\pm0.001\rm~dex\,kpc^{-1}$ out to approximately $15$ kpc.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Mapping Interstellar Dust with Gaussian Processes

Interstellar dust corrupts nearly every stellar observation, and accounting for it is crucial to measuring physical properties of stars. We model the dust distribution as a spatially varying latent field with a Gaussian process (GP) and develop a likelihood model and inference method that scales to millions of astronomical observations. Modeling interstellar dust is complicated by two factors. The first is integrated observations. The data come from a vantage point on Earth and each observation is an integral of the unobserved function along our line of sight, resulting in a complex likelihood and a more difficult inference problem than in classical GP inference. The second complication is scale; stellar catalogs have millions of observations. To address these challenges we develop ziggy, a scalable approach to GP inference with integrated observations based on stochastic variational inference. We study ziggy on synthetic data and the Ananke dataset, a high-fidelity mechanistic model of the Milky Way with millions of stars. ziggy reliably infers the spatial dust map with well-calibrated posterior uncertainties.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

The Thresher: Lucky Imaging without the Waste

In traditional lucky imaging (TLI), many consecutive images of the same scene are taken with a high frame-rate camera, and all but the sharpest images are discarded before constructing the final shift-and-add image. Here we present an alternative image analysis pipeline -- The Thresher -- for these kinds of data, based on online multi-frame blind deconvolution. It makes use of all available data to obtain a best estimate of the astronomical scene in the context of reasonable computational limits; it does not require prior estimates of the point-spread functions in the images, or knowledge of point sources in the scene that could provide such estimates. Most importantly, the scene it aims to return is the optimum of a justified scalar objective based on the likelihood function. Because it uses the full set of images in the stack, The Thresher outperforms TLI in signal-to-noise; as it accounts for the individual-frame PSFs, it does this without loss of angular resolution. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm on both simulated data and real Electron-Multiplying CCD images obtained at the Danish 1.54m telescope (hosted by ESO, La Silla). We also explore the current limitations of the algorithm, and find that for the choice of image model presented here, non-linearities in flux are introduced into the returned scene. Ongoing development of the software can be viewed at https://github.com/jah1994/TheThresher.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

The EXPRES Stellar Signals Project II. State of the Field in Disentangling Photospheric Velocities

Measured spectral shifts due to intrinsic stellar variability (e.g., pulsations, granulation) and activity (e.g., spots, plages) are the largest source of error for extreme precision radial velocity (EPRV) exoplanet detection. Several methods are designed to disentangle stellar signals from true center-of-mass shifts due to planets. The EXPRES Stellar Signals Project (ESSP) presents a self-consistent comparison of 22 different methods tested on the same extreme-precision spectroscopic data from EXPRES. Methods derived new activity indicators, constructed models for mapping an indicator to the needed RV correction, or separated out shape- and shift-driven RV components. Since no ground truth is known when using real data, relative method performance is assessed using the total and nightly scatter of returned RVs and agreement between the results of different methods. Nearly all submitted methods return a lower RV RMS than classic linear decorrelation, but no method is yet consistently reducing the RV RMS to sub-meter-per-second levels. There is a concerning lack of agreement between the RVs returned by different methods. These results suggest that continued progress in this field necessitates increased interpretability of methods, high-cadence data to capture stellar signals at all timescales, and continued tests like the ESSP using consistent data sets with more advanced metrics for method performance. Future comparisons should make use of various well-characterized data sets -- such as solar data or data with known injected planetary and/or stellar signals -- to better understand method performance and whether planetary signals are preserved.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

A simple equivariant machine learning method for dynamics based on scalars

Physical systems obey strict symmetry principles. We expect that machine learning methods that intrinsically respect these symmetries should have higher prediction accuracy and better generalization in prediction of physical dynamics. In this work we implement a principled model based on invariant scalars, and release open-source code. We apply this Scalars method to a simple chaotic dynamical system, the springy double pendulum. We show that the Scalars method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for learning the properties of physical systems with symmetries, both in terms of accuracy and speed. Because the method incorporates the fundamental symmetries, we expect it to generalize to different settings, such as changes in the force laws in the system.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Dimensionality reduction, regularization, and generalization in overparameterized regressions

Overparameterization in deep learning is powerful: Very large models fit the training data perfectly and yet often generalize well. This realization brought back the study of linear models for regression, including ordinary least squares (OLS), which, like deep learning, shows a "double-descent" behavior: (1) The risk (expected out-of-sample prediction error) can grow arbitrarily when the number of parameters $p$ approaches the number of samples $n$, and (2) the risk decreases with $p$ for $p>n$, sometimes achieving a lower value than the lowest risk for $p<n$. The divergence of the risk for OLS can be avoided with regularization. In this work, we show that for some data models it can also be avoided with a PCA-based dimensionality reduction (PCA-OLS, also known as principal component regression). We provide non-asymptotic bounds for the risk of PCA-OLS by considering the alignments of the population and empirical principal components. We show that dimensionality reduction improves robustness while OLS is arbitrarily susceptible to adversarial attacks, particularly in the overparameterized regime. We compare PCA-OLS theoretically and empirically with a wide range of projection-based methods, including random projections, partial least squares (PLS), and certain classes of linear two-layer neural networks. These comparisons are made for different data generation models to assess the sensitivity to signal-to-noise and the alignment of regression coefficients with the features. We find that methods in which the projection depends on the training data can outperform methods where the projections are chosen independently of the training data, even those with oracle knowledge of population quantities, another seemingly paradoxical phenomenon that has been identified previously. This suggests that overparameterization may not be necessary for good generalization.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Mapping stellar surfaces III: An Efficient, Scalable, and Open-Source Doppler Imaging Model

The study of stellar surfaces can reveal information about the chemical composition, interior structure, and magnetic properties of stars. It is also critical to the detection and characterization of extrasolar planets, in particular those targeted in extreme precision radial velocity (EPRV) searches, which must contend with stellar variability that is often orders of magnitude stronger than the planetary signal. One of the most successful methods to map the surfaces of stars is Doppler imaging, in which the presence of inhomogeneities is inferred from subtle line shape changes in high resolution stellar spectra. In this paper, we present a novel, efficient, and closed-form solution to the problem of Doppler imaging of stellar surfaces. Our model explicitly allows for incomplete knowledge of the local (rest frame) stellar spectrum, allowing one to learn differences from spectral templates while simultaneously mapping the stellar surface. It therefore works on blended lines, regions of the spectrum where line formation mechanisms are not well understood, or stars whose spots have intrinsically different spectra from the rest of the photosphere. We implement the model within the open source starry framework, making it fast, differentiable, and easy to use in both optimization and posterior inference settings. As a proof-of-concept, we use our model to infer the surface map of the brown dwarf WISE 1049-5319B, finding close agreement with the solution of Crossfield et al. (2014). We also discuss Doppler imaging in the context of EPRV studies and describe an interpretable spectral-temporal Gaussian process for stellar spectral variability that we expect will be important for EPRV exoplanet searches.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Snails Across Scales: Local and Global Phase-Mixing Structures as Probes of the Past and Future Milky Way

Signatures of vertical disequilibrium have been observed across the Milky Way's disk. These signatures manifest locally as unmixed phase-spirals in $z$--$v_z$ space ("snails-in-phase") and globally as nonzero mean $z$ and $v_z$ which wraps around as a physical spiral across the $x$--$y$ plane ("snails-in-space"). We explore the connection between these local and global spirals through the example of a satellite perturbing a test-particle Milky Way (MW)-like disk. We anticipate our results to broadly apply to any vertical perturbation. Using a $z$--$v_z$ asymmetry metric we demonstrate that in test-particle simulations: (a) multiple local phase-spiral morphologies appear when stars are binned by azimuthal action $J_ϕ$, excited by a single event (in our case, a satellite disk-crossing); (b) these distinct phase-spirals are traced back to distinct disk locations; and (c) they are excited at distinct times. Thus, local phase-spirals offer a global view of the MW's perturbation history from multiple perspectives. Using a toy model for a Sagittarius (Sgr)-like satellite crossing the disk, we show that the full interaction takes place on timescales comparable to orbital periods of disk stars within $R \lesssim 10$ kpc. Hence such perturbations have widespread influence which peaks in distinct regions of the disk at different times. This leads us to examine the ongoing MW-Sgr interaction. While Sgr has not yet crossed the disk (currently, $z_{Sgr} \approx -6$ kpc, $v_{z,Sgr} \approx 210$ km/s), we demonstrate that the peak of the impact has already passed. Sgr's pull over the past 150 Myr creates a global $v_z$ signature with amplitude $\propto M_{Sgr}$, which might be detectable in future spectroscopic surveys.

astro-ph.GA↗