arXiv subjects

David W. Hogg

Publications and source records attributed to David W. Hogg.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

Inferring the gravitational potential of the Milky Way with a few precisely measured stars

The dark matter halo of the Milky Way is expected to be triaxial and filled with substructure. It is hoped that streams or shells of stars produced by tidal disruption of stellar systems will provide precise measures of the gravitational potential to test these predictions. We develop a method for inferring the Galactic potential with tidal streams based on the idea that the stream stars were once close in phase space. Our method can flexibly adapt to any form for the Galactic potential: it works in phase-space rather than action-space and hence relies neither on our ability to derive actions nor on the integrability of the potential. Our model is probabilistic, with a likelihood function and priors on the parameters. The method can properly account for finite observational uncertainties and missing data dimensions. We test our method on synthetic datasets generated from N-body simulations of satellite disruption in a static, multi-component Milky Way including a triaxial dark matter halo with observational uncertainties chosen to mimic current and near-future surveys of various stars. We find that with just four well-measured stream stars, we can infer properties of a triaxial potential with precisions of order 5-7 percent. Without proper motions we obtain 15 percent constraints on potential parameters and precisions around 25 percent for recovering missing phase-space coordinates. These results are encouraging for the eventual goal of using flexible, time-dependent potential models combined with larger data sets to unravel the detailed shape of the dark matter distribution around the Milky Way.

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arXiv2014

The nature of massive black hole binary candidates: II. Spectral energy distribution atlas

Recoiling supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are considered one plausible physical mechanism to explain high velocity shifts between narrow and broad emission lines sometimes observed in quasar spectra. If the sphere of influence of the recoiling SMBH is such that only the accretion disc is bound, the dusty torus would be left behind, hence the SED should then present distinctive features (i.e. a mid-infrared deficit). Here we present results from fitting the Spectral Energy Distributions (SEDs) of 32 Type-1 AGN with high velocity shifts between broad and narrow lines. The aim is to find peculiar properties in the multi-wavelength SEDs of such objects by comparing their physical parameters (torus and disc luminosity, intrinsic reddening, and size of the 12$μ$m emitter) with those estimated from a control sample of $\sim1000$ \emph{typical} quasars selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey in the same redshift range. We find that all sources, with the possible exception of J1154+0134, analysed here present a significant amount of 12~$μ$m emission. This is in contrast with a scenario of a SMBH displaced from the center of the galaxy, as expected for an undergoing recoil event.

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arXiv2014

The Probabilities of Orbital-Companion Models for Stellar Radial Velocity Data

The fully marginalized likelihood, or Bayesian evidence, is of great importance in probabilistic data analysis, because it is involved in calculating the posterior probability of a model or re-weighting a mixture of models conditioned on data. It is, however, extremely challenging to compute. This paper presents a geometric-path Monte Carlo method, inspired by multi-canonical Monte Carlo to evaluate the fully marginalized likelihood. We show that the algorithm is very fast and easy to implement and produces a justified uncertainty estimate on the fully marginalized likelihood. The algorithm performs efficiently on a trial problem and multi-companion model fitting for radial velocity data. For the trial problem, the algorithm returns the correct fully marginalized likelihood, and the estimated uncertainty is also consistent with the standard deviation of results from multiple runs. We apply the algorithm to the problem of fitting radial velocity data from HIP 88048 ($ν$ Oph) and Gliese 581. We evaluate the fully marginalized likelihood of 1, 2, 3, and 4-companion models given data from HIP 88048 and various choices of prior distributions. We consider prior distributions with three different minimum radial velocity amplitude $K_{\mathrm{min}}$. Under all three priors, the 2-companion model has the largest marginalized likelihood, but the detailed values depend strongly on $K_{\mathrm{min}}$. We also evaluate the fully marginalized likelihood of 3, 4, 5, and 6-planet model given data from Gliese 581 and find that the fully marginalized likelihood of the 5-planet model is too close to that of the 6-planet model for us to confidently decide between them.

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arXiv2014

Fitting Spectral Energy Distributions of AGN - A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach

We present AGNfitter: a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm developed to fit the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) with different physical models of AGN components. This code is well suited to determine in a robust way multiple parameters and their uncertainties, which quantify the physical processes responsible for the panchromatic nature of active galaxies and quasars. We describe the technicalities of the code and test its capabilities in the context of X-ray selected obscured AGN using multiwavelength data from the XMM-COSMOS survey.

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arXiv2014

The Tenth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: First Spectroscopic Data from the SDSS-III Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) has been in operation since 2000 April. This paper presents the tenth public data release (DR10) from its current incarnation, SDSS-III. This data release includes the first spectroscopic data from the Apache Point Observatory Galaxy Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), along with spectroscopic data from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) taken through 2012 July. The APOGEE instrument is a near-infrared R~22,500 300-fiber spectrograph covering 1.514--1.696 microns. The APOGEE survey is studying the chemical abundances and radial velocities of roughly 100,000 red giant star candidates in the bulge, bar, disk, and halo of the Milky Way. DR10 includes 178,397 spectra of 57,454 stars, each typically observed three or more times, from APOGEE. Derived quantities from these spectra (radial velocities, effective temperatures, surface gravities, and metallicities) are also included.DR10 also roughly doubles the number of BOSS spectra over those included in the ninth data release. DR10 includes a total of 1,507,954 BOSS spectra, comprising 927,844 galaxy spectra; 182,009 quasar spectra; and 159,327 stellar spectra, selected over 6373.2 square degrees.

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arXiv2014

10 Simple Rules for the Care and Feeding of Scientific Data

This article offers a short guide to the steps scientists can take to ensure that their data and associated analyses continue to be of value and to be recognized. In just the past few years, hundreds of scholarly papers and reports have been written on questions of data sharing, data provenance, research reproducibility, licensing, attribution, privacy, and more, but our goal here is not to review that literature. Instead, we present a short guide intended for researchers who want to know why it is important to "care for and feed" data, with some practical advice on how to do that.

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arXiv2013

emcee: The MCMC Hammer

We introduce a stable, well tested Python implementation of the affine-invariant ensemble sampler for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) proposed by Goodman & Weare (2010). The code is open source and has already been used in several published projects in the astrophysics literature. The algorithm behind emcee has several advantages over traditional MCMC sampling methods and it has excellent performance as measured by the autocorrelation time (or function calls per independent sample). One major advantage of the algorithm is that it requires hand-tuning of only 1 or 2 parameters compared to $\sim N^2$ for a traditional algorithm in an N-dimensional parameter space. In this document, we describe the algorithm and the details of our implementation and API. Exploiting the parallelism of the ensemble method, emcee permits any user to take advantage of multiple CPU cores without extra effort. The code is available online at http://dan.iel.fm/emcee under the MIT License.

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arXiv2013

Maximizing Kepler science return per telemetered pixel: Detailed models of the focal plane in the two-wheel era

Kepler's immense photometric precision to date was maintained through satellite stability and precise pointing. In this white paper, we argue that image modeling--fitting the Kepler-downlinked raw pixel data--can vastly improve the precision of Kepler in pointing-degraded two-wheel mode. We argue that a non-trivial modeling effort may permit continuance of photometry at 10-ppm-level precision. We demonstrate some baby steps towards precise models in both data-driven (flexible) and physics-driven (interpretably parameterized) modes. We demonstrate that the expected drift or jitter in positions in the two-weel era will help with constraining calibration parameters. In particular, we show that we can infer the device flat-field at higher than pixel resolution; that is, we can infer pixel-to-pixel variations in intra-pixel sensitivity. These results are relevant to almost any scientific goal for the repurposed mission; image modeling ought to be a part of any two-wheel repurpose for the satellite. We make other recommendations for Kepler operations, but fundamentally advocate that the project stick with its core mission of finding and characterizing Earth analogs. [abridged]

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arXiv2013

Maximizing Kepler science return per telemetered pixel: Searching the habitable zones of the brightest stars

In today's mailing, Hogg et al. propose image modeling techniques to maintain 10-ppm-level precision photometry in Kepler data with only two working reaction wheels. While these results are relevant to many scientific goals for the repurposed mission, all modeling efforts so far have used a toy model of the Kepler telescope. Because the two-wheel performance of Kepler remains to be determined, we advocate for the consideration of an alternate strategy for a >1 year program that maximizes the science return from the "low-torque" fields across the ecliptic plane. Assuming we can reach the precision of the original Kepler mission, we expect to detect 800 new planet candidates in the first year of such a mission. Our proposed strategy has benefits for transit timing variation and transit duration variation studies, especially when considered in concert with the future TESS mission. We also expect to help address the first key science goal of Kepler: the frequency of planets in the habitable zone as a function of spectral type.

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arXiv2013

The nature of massive black hole binary candidates: I. Spectral properties and evolution

Theoretically, bound binaries of massive black holes are expected as the natural outcome of mergers of massive galaxies. From the observational side, however, massive black hole binaries remain elusive. Velocity shifts between narrow and broad emission lines in quasar spectra are considered a promising observational tool to search for spatially unresolved, dynamically bound binaries. In this series of papers we investigate the nature of such candidates through analyses of their spectra, images and multi-wavelength spectral energy distributions. Here we investigate the properties of the optical spectra, including the evolution of the broad line profiles, of all the sources identified in our previous study. We find a diverse phenomenology of broad and narrow line luminosities, widths, shapes, ionization conditions and time variability, which we can broadly ascribe to 4 classes based on the shape of the broad line profiles: 1) Objects with bell-shaped broad lines with big velocity shifts (>1000 km/s) compared to their narrow lines show a variety of broad line widths and luminosities, modest flux variations over a few years, and no significant change in the broad line peak wavelength. 2) Objects with double-peaked broad emission lines tend to show very luminous and broadened lines, and little time variability. 3) Objects with asymmetric broad emission lines show a broad range of broad line luminosities and significant variability of the line profiles. 4) The remaining sources tend to show moderate to low broad line luminosities, and can be ascribed to diverse phenomena. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of massive black hole binary searches.

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arXiv2013

Probabilistic Catalogs for Crowded Stellar Fields

We present and implement a probabilistic (Bayesian) method for producing catalogs from images of stellar fields. The method is capable of inferring the number of sources N in the image and can also handle the challenges introduced by noise, overlapping sources, and an unknown point spread function (PSF). The luminosity function of the stars can also be inferred even when the precise luminosity of each star is uncertain, via the use of a hierarchical Bayesian model. The computational feasibility of the method is demonstrated on two simulated images with different numbers of stars. We find that our method successfully recovers the input parameter values along with principled uncertainties even when the field is crowded. We also compare our results with those obtained from the SExtractor software. While the two approaches largely agree about the fluxes of the bright stars, the Bayesian approach provides more accurate inferences about the faint stars and the number of stars, particularly in the crowded case.

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arXiv2013

A New Approach to Identifying the Most Powerful Gravitational Lensing Telescopes

The best gravitational lenses for detecting distant galaxies are those with the largest mass concentrations and the most advantageous configurations of that mass along the line of sight. Our new method for finding such gravitational telescopes uses optical data to identify projected concentrations of luminous red galaxies (LRGs). LRGs are biased tracers of the underlying mass distribution, so lines of sight with the highest total luminosity in LRGs are likely to contain the largest total mass. We apply this selection technique to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and identify the 200 fields with the highest total LRG luminosities projected within a 3.5' radius over the redshift range 0.1 < z < 0.7. The redshift and angular distributions of LRGs in these fields trace the concentrations of non-LRG galaxies. These fields are diverse; 22.5% contain one known galaxy cluster and 56.0% contain multiple known clusters previously identified in the literature. Thus, our results confirm that these LRGs trace massive structures and that our selection technique identifies fields with large total masses. These fields contain 2-3 times higher total LRG luminosities than most known strong-lensing clusters and will be among the best gravitational lensing fields for the purpose of detecting the highest redshift galaxies.

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arXiv2013

Searching for comets on the World Wide Web: The orbit of 17P/Holmes from the behavior of photographers

We performed an image search for "Comet Holmes," using the Yahoo Web search engine, on 2010 April 1. Thousands of images were returned. We astrometrically calibrated---and therefore vetted---the images using the Astrometry.net system. The calibrated image pointings form a set of data points to which we can fit a test-particle orbit in the Solar System, marginalizing over image dates and detecting outliers. The approach is Bayesian and the model is, in essence, a model of how comet astrophotographers point their instruments. In this work, we do not measure the position of the comet within each image, but rather use the celestial position of the whole image to infer the orbit. We find very strong probabilistic constraints on the orbit, although slightly off the JPL ephemeris, probably due to limitations of our model. Hyperparameters of the model constrain the reliability of date meta-data and where in the image astrophotographers place the comet; we find that ~70 percent of the meta-data are correct and that the comet typically appears in the central third of the image footprint. This project demonstrates that discoveries and measurements can be made using data of extreme heterogeneity and unknown provenance. As the size and diversity of astronomical data sets continues to grow, approaches like ours will become more essential. This project also demonstrates that the Web is an enormous repository of astronomical information; and that if an object has been given a name and photographed thousands of times by observers who post their images on the Web, we can (re-)discover it and infer its dynamical properties.

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arXiv2013

The PRIsm MUlti-object Survey (PRIMUS). II. Data Reduction and Redshift Fitting

The PRIsm MUti-object Survey (PRIMUS) is a spectroscopic galaxy redshift survey to z~1 completed with a low-dispersion prism and slitmasks allowing for simultaneous observations of ~2,500 objects over 0.18 square degrees. The final PRIMUS catalog includes ~130,000 robust redshifts over 9.1 sq. deg. In this paper, we summarize the PRIMUS observational strategy and present the data reduction details used to measure redshifts, redshift precision, and survey completeness. The survey motivation, observational techniques, fields, target selection, slitmask design, and observations are presented in Coil et al 2010. Comparisons to existing higher-resolution spectroscopic measurements show a typical precision of sigma_z/(1+z)=0.005. PRIMUS, both in area and number of redshifts, is the largest faint galaxy redshift survey completed to date and is allowing for precise measurements of the relationship between AGNs and their hosts, the effects of environment on galaxy evolution, and the build up of galactic systems over the latter half of cosmic history.

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arXiv2013

Reconnaissance of the HR 8799 Exosolar System I: Near IR Spectroscopy

We obtained spectra, in the wavelength range λ= 995 - 1769 nm, of all four known planets orbiting the star HR 8799. Using the suite of instrumentation known as Project 1640 on the Palomar 5-m Hale Telescope, we acquired data at two epochs. This allowed for multiple imaging detections of the companions and multiple extractions of low-resolution (R ~ 35) spectra. Data reduction employed two different methods of speckle suppression and spectrum extraction, both yielding results that agree. The spectra do not directly correspond to those of any known objects, although similarities with L and T-dwarfs are present, as well as some characteristics similar to planets such as Saturn. We tentatively identify the presence of CH_4 along with NH_3 and/or C_2H_2, and possibly CO_2 or HCN in varying amounts in each component of the system. Other studies suggested red colors for these faint companions, and our data confirm those observations. Cloudy models, based on previous photometric observations, may provide the best explanation for the new data presented here. Notable in our data is that these presumably co-eval objects of similar luminosity have significantly different spectra; the diversity of planets may be greater than previously thought. The techniques and methods employed in this paper represent a new capability to observe and rapidly characterize exoplanetary systems in a routine manner over a broad range of planet masses and separations. These are the first simultaneous spectroscopic observations of multiple planets in a planetary system other than our own.

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arXiv2013

Baryon Acoustic Oscillations in the Ly-α forest of BOSS quasars

We report a detection of the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) feature in the three-dimensional correlation function of the transmitted flux fraction in the \Lya forest of high-redshift quasars. The study uses 48,640 quasars in the redshift range $2.1\le z \le 3.5$ from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) of the third generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-III). At a mean redshift $z=2.3$, we measure the monopole and quadrupole components of the correlation function for separations in the range $20\hMpc<r<200\hMpc$. A peak in the correlation function is seen at a separation equal to $(1.01\pm0.03)$ times the distance expected for the BAO peak within a concordance $Λ$CDM cosmology. This first detection of the BAO peak at high redshift, when the universe was strongly matter dominated, results in constraints on the angular diameter distance $\da$ and the expansion rate $H$ at $z=2.3$ that, combined with priors on $H_0$ and the baryon density, require the existence of dark energy. Combined with constraints derived from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) observations, this result implies $H(z=2.3)=(224\pm8){\rm km\,s^{-1}Mpc^{-1}}$, indicating that the time derivative of the cosmological scale parameter $\dot{a}=H(z=2.3)/(1+z)$ is significantly greater than that measured with BAO at $z\sim0.5$. This demonstrates that the expansion was decelerating in the range $0.7<z<2.3$, as expected from the matter domination during this epoch. Combined with measurements of $H_0$, one sees the pattern of deceleration followed by acceleration characteristic of a dark-energy dominated universe.

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arXiv2013

SYNMAG Photometry: A Fast Tool for Catalog-Level Matched Colors of Extended Sources

Obtaining reliable, matched photometry for galaxies imaged by different observatories represents a key challenge in the era of wide-field surveys spanning more than several hundred square degrees. Methods such as flux fitting, profile fitting, and PSF homogenization followed by matched-aperture photometry are all computationally expensive. We present an alternative solution called "synthetic aperture photometry" that exploits galaxy profile fits in one band to efficiently model the observed, PSF-convolved light profile in other bands and predict the flux in arbitrarily sized apertures. Because aperture magnitudes are the most widely tabulated flux measurements in survey catalogs, producing synthetic aperture magnitudes (SYNMAGs) enables very fast matched photometry at the catalog level, without reprocessing imaging data. We make our code public and apply it to obtain matched photometry between SDSS ugriz and UKIDSS YJHK imaging, recovering red-sequence colors and photometric redshifts with a scatter and accuracy as good as if not better than FWHM-homogenized photometry from the GAMA Survey. Finally, we list some specific measurements that upcoming surveys could make available to facilitate and ease the use of SYNMAGs.

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arXiv2012

The Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury IV. A Probabilistic Approach to Inferring the High Mass Stellar Initial Mass Function and Other Power-law Functions

We present a probabilistic approach for inferring the parameters of the present day power-law stellar mass function (MF) of a resolved young star cluster. This technique (a) fully exploits the information content of a given dataset; (b) accounts for observational uncertainties in a straightforward way; (c) assigns meaningful uncertainties to the inferred parameters; (d) avoids the pitfalls associated with binning data; and (e) is applicable to virtually any resolved young cluster, laying the groundwork for a systematic study of the high mass stellar MF (M > 1 Msun). Using simulated clusters and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling of the probability distribution functions, we show that estimates of the MF slope, α, are unbiased and that the uncertainty, Δα, depends primarily on the number of observed stars and stellar mass range they span, assuming that the uncertainties on individual masses and the completeness are well-characterized. Using idealized mock data, we compute the lower limit precision on α and provide an analytic approximation for Δα as a function of the observed number of stars and mass range. We find that ~ 3/4 of quoted literature uncertainties are smaller than the theoretical lower limit. By correcting these uncertainties to the theoretical lower limits, we find the literature studies yield <α>=2.46 with a 1-σ dispersion of 0.35 dex. We verify that it is impossible for a power-law MF to obtain meaningful constraints on the upper mass limit of the IMF. We show that avoiding substantial biases in the MF slope requires: (1) including the MF as a prior when deriving individual stellar mass estimates; (2) modeling the uncertainties in the individual stellar masses; and (3) fully characterizing and then explicitly modeling the completeness for stars of a given mass. (abridged)

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