arXiv subjects

Dean Foster

Publications and source records attributed to Dean Foster.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Learning an Inventory Control Policy with General Inventory Arrival Dynamics

In this paper we address the problem of learning and backtesting inventory control policies in the presence of general arrival dynamics -- which we term as a quantity-over-time arrivals model (QOT). We also allow for order quantities to be modified as a post-processing step to meet vendor constraints such as order minimum and batch size constraints -- a common practice in real supply chains. To the best of our knowledge this is the first work to handle either arbitrary arrival dynamics or an arbitrary downstream post-processing of order quantities. Building upon recent work (Madeka et al., 2022) we similarly formulate the periodic review inventory control problem as an exogenous decision process, where most of the state is outside the control of the agent. Madeka et al., 2022 show how to construct a simulator that replays historic data to solve this class of problem. In our case, we incorporate a deep generative model for the arrivals process as part of the history replay. By formulating the problem as an exogenous decision process, we can apply results from Madeka et al., 2022 to obtain a reduction to supervised learning. Via simulation studies we show that this approach yields statistically significant improvements in profitability over production baselines. Using data from a real-world A/B test, we show that Gen-QOT generalizes well to off-policy data and that the resulting buying policy outperforms traditional inventory management systems in real world settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Contextual Bandits for Evaluating and Improving Inventory Control Policies

Solutions to address the periodic review inventory control problem with nonstationary random demand, lost sales, and stochastic vendor lead times typically involve making strong assumptions on the dynamics for either approximation or simulation, and applying methods such as optimization, dynamic programming, or reinforcement learning. Therefore, it is important to analyze and evaluate any inventory control policy, in particular to see if there is room for improvement. We introduce the concept of an equilibrium policy, a desirable property of a policy that intuitively means that, in hindsight, changing only a small fraction of actions does not result in materially more reward. We provide a light-weight contextual bandit-based algorithm to evaluate and occasionally tweak policies, and show that this method achieves favorable guarantees, both theoretically and in empirical studies.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Meta-Analysis of Randomized Experiments with Applications to Heavy-Tailed Response Data

A central obstacle in the objective assessment of treatment effect (TE) estimators in randomized control trials (RCTs) is the lack of ground truth (or validation set) to test their performance. In this paper, we propose a novel cross-validation-like methodology to address this challenge. The key insight of our procedure is that the noisy (but unbiased) difference-of-means estimate can be used as a ground truth ``label" on a portion of the RCT, to test the performance of an estimator trained on the other portion. We combine this insight with an aggregation scheme, which borrows statistical strength across a large collection of RCTs, to present an end-to-end methodology for judging an estimator's ability to recover the underlying treatment effect as well as produce an optimal treatment "roll out" policy. We evaluate our methodology across 699 RCTs implemented in the Amazon supply chain. In this heavy-tailed setting, our methodology suggests that procedures that aggressively downweight or truncate large values, while introducing bias, lower the variance enough to ensure that the treatment effect is more accurately estimated.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Variance Reduced Training with Stratified Sampling for Forecasting Models

In large-scale time series forecasting, one often encounters the situation where the temporal patterns of time series, while drifting over time, differ from one another in the same dataset. In this paper, we provably show under such heterogeneity, training a forecasting model with commonly used stochastic optimizers (e.g. SGD) potentially suffers large variance on gradient estimation, and thus incurs long-time training. We show that this issue can be efficiently alleviated via stratification, which allows the optimizer to sample from pre-grouped time series strata. For better trading-off gradient variance and computation complexity, we further propose SCott (Stochastic Stratified Control Variate Gradient Descent), a variance reduced SGD-style optimizer that utilizes stratified sampling via control variate. In theory, we provide the convergence guarantee of SCott on smooth non-convex objectives. Empirically, we evaluate SCott and other baseline optimizers on both synthetic and real-world time series forecasting problems, and demonstrate SCott converges faster with respect to both iterations and wall clock time.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Top-$k$ eXtreme Contextual Bandits with Arm Hierarchy

Motivated by modern applications, such as online advertisement and recommender systems, we study the top-$k$ extreme contextual bandits problem, where the total number of arms can be enormous, and the learner is allowed to select $k$ arms and observe all or some of the rewards for the chosen arms. We first propose an algorithm for the non-extreme realizable setting, utilizing the Inverse Gap Weighting strategy for selecting multiple arms. We show that our algorithm has a regret guarantee of $O(k\sqrt{(A-k+1)T \log (|\mathcal{F}|T)})$, where $A$ is the total number of arms and $\mathcal{F}$ is the class containing the regression function, while only requiring $\tilde{O}(A)$ computation per time step. In the extreme setting, where the total number of arms can be in the millions, we propose a practically-motivated arm hierarchy model that induces a certain structure in mean rewards to ensure statistical and computational efficiency. The hierarchical structure allows for an exponential reduction in the number of relevant arms for each context, thus resulting in a regret guarantee of $O(k\sqrt{(\log A-k+1)T \log (|\mathcal{F}|T)})$. Finally, we implement our algorithm using a hierarchical linear function class and show superior performance with respect to well-known benchmarks on simulated bandit feedback experiments using extreme multi-label classification datasets. On a dataset with three million arms, our reduction scheme has an average inference time of only 7.9 milliseconds, which is a 100x improvement.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

PACT: Privacy Sensitive Protocols and Mechanisms for Mobile Contact Tracing

The global health threat from COVID-19 has been controlled in a number of instances by large-scale testing and contact tracing efforts. We created this document to suggest three functionalities on how we might best harness computing technologies to supporting the goals of public health organizations in minimizing morbidity and mortality associated with the spread of COVID-19, while protecting the civil liberties of individuals. In particular, this work advocates for a third-party free approach to assisted mobile contact tracing, because such an approach mitigates the security and privacy risks of requiring a trusted third party. We also explicitly consider the inferential risks involved in any contract tracing system, where any alert to a user could itself give rise to de-anonymizing information. More generally, we hope to participate in bringing together colleagues in industry, academia, and civil society to discuss and converge on ideas around a critical issue rising with attempts to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2019

Dynamic Local Regret for Non-convex Online Forecasting

We consider online forecasting problems for non-convex machine learning models. Forecasting introduces several challenges such as (i) frequent updates are necessary to deal with concept drift issues since the dynamics of the environment change over time, and (ii) the state of the art models are non-convex models. We address these challenges with a novel regret framework. Standard regret measures commonly do not consider both dynamic environment and non-convex models. We introduce a local regret for non-convex models in a dynamic environment. We present an update rule incurring a cost, according to our proposed local regret, which is sublinear in time T. Our update uses time-smoothed gradients. Using a real-world dataset we show that our time-smoothed approach yields several benefits when compared with state-of-the-art competitors: results are more stable against new data; training is more robust to hyperparameter selection; and our approach is more computationally efficient than the alternatives.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Deep Factors for Forecasting

Producing probabilistic forecasts for large collections of similar and/or dependent time series is a practically relevant and challenging task. Classical time series models fail to capture complex patterns in the data, and multivariate techniques struggle to scale to large problem sizes. Their reliance on strong structural assumptions makes them data-efficient, and allows them to provide uncertainty estimates. The converse is true for models based on deep neural networks, which can learn complex patterns and dependencies given enough data. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that incorporates the benefits of both approaches. Our new method is data-driven and scalable via a latent, global, deep component. It also handles uncertainty through a local classical model. We provide both theoretical and empirical evidence for the soundness of our approach through a necessary and sufficient decomposition of exchangeable time series into a global and a local part. Our experiments demonstrate the advantages of our model both in term of data efficiency, accuracy and computational complexity.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

A Local Regret in Nonconvex Online Learning

We consider an online learning process to forecast a sequence of outcomes for nonconvex models. A typical measure to evaluate online learning algorithms is regret but such standard definition of regret is intractable for nonconvex models even in offline settings. Hence, gradient based definition of regrets are common for both offline and online nonconvex problems. Recently, a notion of local gradient based regret was introduced. Inspired by the concept of calibration and a local gradient based regret, we introduce another definition of regret and we discuss why our definition is more interpretable for forecasting problems. We also provide bound analysis for our regret under certain assumptions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Invariances and Data Augmentation for Supervised Music Transcription

This paper explores a variety of models for frame-based music transcription, with an emphasis on the methods needed to reach state-of-the-art on human recordings. The translation-invariant network discussed in this paper, which combines a traditional filterbank with a convolutional neural network, was the top-performing model in the 2017 MIREX Multiple Fundamental Frequency Estimation evaluation. This class of models shares parameters in the log-frequency domain, which exploits the frequency invariance of music to reduce the number of model parameters and avoid overfitting to the training data. All models in this paper were trained with supervision by labeled data from the MusicNet dataset, augmented by random label-preserving pitch-shift transformations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2016

On Optimal Retirement (How to Retire Early)

We pose an optimal control problem arising in a perhaps new model for retirement investing. Given a control function $f$ and our current net worth as $X(t)$ for any $t$, we invest an amount $f(X(t))$ in the market. We need a fortune of $M$ "superdollars" to retire and want to retire as early as possible. We model our change in net worth over each infinitesimal time interval by the Ito process $dX(t)= (1+f(X(t))dt+ f(X(t))dW(t)$. We show how to choose the optimal $f=f_0$ and show that the choice of $f_0$ is optimal among all nonanticipative investment strategies, not just among Markovian ones.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2016

Online Sparse Linear Regression

We consider the online sparse linear regression problem, which is the problem of sequentially making predictions observing only a limited number of features in each round, to minimize regret with respect to the best sparse linear regressor, where prediction accuracy is measured by square loss. We give an inefficient algorithm that obtains regret bounded by $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ after $T$ prediction rounds. We complement this result by showing that no algorithm running in polynomial time per iteration can achieve regret bounded by $O(T^{1-δ})$ for any constant $δ> 0$ unless $\text{NP} \subseteq \text{BPP}$. This computational hardness result resolves an open problem presented in COLT 2014 (Kale, 2014) and also posed by Zolghadr et al. (2013). This hardness result holds even if the algorithm is allowed to access more features than the best sparse linear regressor up to a logarithmic factor in the dimension.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Semantic Word Clusters Using Signed Normalized Graph Cuts

Vector space representations of words capture many aspects of word similarity, but such methods tend to make vector spaces in which antonyms (as well as synonyms) are close to each other. We present a new signed spectral normalized graph cut algorithm, signed clustering, that overlays existing thesauri upon distributionally derived vector representations of words, so that antonym relationships between word pairs are represented by negative weights. Our signed clustering algorithm produces clusters of words which simultaneously capture distributional and synonym relations. We evaluate these clusters against the SimLex-999 dataset (Hill et al.,2014) of human judgments of word pair similarities, and also show the benefit of using our clusters to predict the sentiment of a given text.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2015

Finding Linear Structure in Large Datasets with Scalable Canonical Correlation Analysis

Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is a widely used spectral technique for finding correlation structures in multi-view datasets. In this paper, we tackle the problem of large scale CCA, where classical algorithms, usually requiring computing the product of two huge matrices and huge matrix decomposition, are computationally and storage expensive. We recast CCA from a novel perspective and propose a scalable and memory efficient Augmented Approximate Gradient (AppGrad) scheme for finding top $k$ dimensional canonical subspace which only involves large matrix multiplying a thin matrix of width $k$ and small matrix decomposition of dimension $k\times k$. Further, AppGrad achieves optimal storage complexity $O(k(p_1+p_2))$, compared with classical algorithms which usually require $O(p_1^2+p_2^2)$ space to store two dense whitening matrices. The proposed scheme naturally generalizes to stochastic optimization regime, especially efficient for huge datasets where batch algorithms are prohibitive. The online property of stochastic AppGrad is also well suited to the streaming scenario, where data comes sequentially. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first stochastic algorithm for CCA. Experiments on four real data sets are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2015

Adaptive Monotone Shrinkage for Regression

We develop an adaptive monotone shrinkage estimator for regression models with the following characteristics: i) dense coefficients with small but important effects; ii) a priori ordering that indicates the probable predictive importance of the features. We capture both properties with an empirical Bayes estimator that shrinks coefficients monotonically with respect to their anticipated importance. This estimator can be rapidly computed using a version of Pool-Adjacent-Violators algorithm. We show that the proposed monotone shrinkage approach is competitive with the class of all Bayesian estimators that share the prior information. We further observe that the estimator also minimizes Stein's unbiased risk estimate. Along with our key result that the estimator mimics the oracle Bayes rule under an order assumption, we also prove that the estimator is robust. Even without the order assumption, our estimator mimics the best performance of a large family of estimators that includes the least squares estimator, constant-$λ$ ridge estimator, James-Stein estimator, etc. All the theoretical results are non-asymptotic. Simulation results and data analysis from a model for text processing are provided to support the theory.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2014

Variable Selection is Hard

Variable selection for sparse linear regression is the problem of finding, given an m x p matrix B and a target vector y, a sparse vector x such that Bx approximately equals y. Assuming a standard complexity hypothesis, we show that no polynomial-time algorithm can find a k'-sparse x with ||Bx-y||^2<=h(m,p), where k'=k*2^{log^{1-delta} p} and h(m,p)<=p^(C_1)*m^(1-C_2), where delta>0, C_1>0,C_2>0 are arbitrary. This is true even under the promise that there is an unknown k-sparse vector x^* satisfying Bx^*=y. We prove a similar result for a statistical version of the problem in which the data are corrupted by noise. To the authors' knowledge, these are the first hardness results for sparse regression that apply when the algorithm simultaneously has k'>k and h(m,p)>0.

cs.CC↗

arXiv2012

Two Step CCA: A new spectral method for estimating vector models of words

Unlabeled data is often used to learn representations which can be used to supplement baseline features in a supervised learner. For example, for text applications where the words lie in a very high dimensional space (the size of the vocabulary), one can learn a low rank "dictionary" by an eigen-decomposition of the word co-occurrence matrix (e.g. using PCA or CCA). In this paper, we present a new spectral method based on CCA to learn an eigenword dictionary. Our improved procedure computes two set of CCAs, the first one between the left and right contexts of the given word and the second one between the projections resulting from this CCA and the word itself. We prove theoretically that this two-step procedure has lower sample complexity than the simple single step procedure and also illustrate the empirical efficacy of our approach and the richness of representations learned by our Two Step CCA (TSCCA) procedure on the tasks of POS tagging and sentiment classification.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2012

A Level-Set Hit-and-Run Sampler for Quasi-Concave Distributions

We develop a new sampling strategy that uses the hit-and-run algorithm within level sets of the target density. Our method can be applied to any quasi-concave density, which covers a broad class of models. Our sampler performs well in high-dimensional settings, which we illustrate with a comparison to Gibbs sampling on a spike-and-slab mixture model. We also extend our method to exponentially-tilted quasi-concave densities, which arise often in Bayesian models consisting of a log-concave likelihood and quasi-concave prior density. Within this class of models, our method is effective at sampling from posterior distributions with high dependence between parameters, which we illustrate with a simple multivariate normal example. We also implement our level-set sampler on a Cauchy-normal model where we demonstrate the ability of our level set sampler to handle multi-modal posterior distributions.

stat.CO↗