arXiv subjects

Debora Sijacki

Publications and source records attributed to Debora Sijacki.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

The redshift evolution of X-ray and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich scaling relations in the FABLE simulations

We study the redshift evolution of the X-ray and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) scaling relations for galaxy groups and clusters in the FABLE suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. Using an expanded sample of $27$ high-resolution zoom-in simulations, together with a uniformly-sampled cosmological volume to sample low-mass systems, we find very good agreement with the majority of observational constraints up to $z \sim 1$. We predict significant deviations of all examined scaling relations from the simple self-similar expectations. While the slopes are approximately independent of redshift, the normalisations evolve positively with respect to self-similarity, even for commonly-used mass proxies such as the $Y_{\mathrm{X}}$ parameter. These deviations are due to a combination of factors, including more effective AGN feedback in lower mass haloes, larger binding energy of gas at a given halo mass at higher redshifts and larger non-thermal pressure support from kinetic motions at higher redshifts. Our results have important implications for cluster cosmology from upcoming SZ surveys such as SPT-3G, ACTpol and CMB-S4, as relatively small changes in the observable--mass scaling relations (within theoretical uncertainties) have a large impact on the predicted number of high-redshift clusters and hence on our ability to constrain cosmology using cluster abundances. In addition, we find that the intrinsic scatter of the relations, which agrees well with most observational constraints, increases at lower redshifts and for lower mass systems. This calls for a more complex parametrization than adopted in current observational studies to be able to accurately account for selection biases.

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arXiv2019

Constraints on Chameleon f(R)-Gravity from Galaxy Rotation Curves of the SPARC Sample

In chameleon $f(R)$-gravity, the fifth force will lead to `upturns' in galaxy rotation curves near the screening radius. The location of the upturn depends on the cosmic background value of the scalar field $f_{R0}$, as well as the mass, size and environment of the galaxy. We search for this signature of modified gravity in the SPARC sample of measured rotation curves, using an MCMC technique to derive constraints on $f_{R0}$. Assuming NFW dark matter haloes and with $f_{R0}$ freely varying for each galaxy, most galaxies prefer $f(R)$ gravity to $Λ$CDM, but there is a large spread of inferred $f_{R0}$ values, inconsistent with a single global value. Requiring instead a consistent $f_{R0}$ value for the whole sample, models with $\log_{10}|f_{R0}| > -6.1$ are excluded. On the other hand, models in the range $-7.5<\log_{10}|f_{R0}|<-6.5$ seem to be favoured with respect to $Λ$CDM, with a significant peak at -7. However, this signal is largely a result of galaxies for which the $f(R)$ signal is degenerate with the core/cusp problem, and when the NFW profile is replaced with a cored halo profile, $Λ$CDM gives better fits than any given $f(R)$ model. Thus, we find no convincing evidence of $f(R)$ gravity down to the level of $|f_{R0}| \sim 6 \times 10^{-8}$, with the caveat that if cored halo density profiles cannot ultimately be explained within $Λ$CDM, a screened modified gravity theory could possibly provide an alternative solution for the core/cusp problem. However, the $f(R)$ models studied here fall short of achieving this.

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arXiv2019

Cosmological simulations of dwarfs: the need for ISM physics beyond SN feedback alone

The dominant feedback mechanism in low mass haloes is usually assumed to take the form of massive stars exploding as supernovae (SNe). We perform very high resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations of five dwarf galaxies to z = 4 with our mechanical SN feedback model. This delivers the correct amount of momentum corresponding to the stage of the SN remnant evolution resolved, and has been shown to lead to realistic dwarf properties in isolated simulations. We find that in 4 out of our 5 simulated cosmological dwarfs, SN feedback has insufficient impact resulting in excessive stellar masses, extremely compact sizes and central super-solar stellar metallicities. The failure of the SN feedback in our dwarfs is physical in nature within our model and is the result of the build up of very dense gas in the early universe due to mergers and cosmic inflows prior to the first SN occurring. We demonstrate that our results are insensitive to resolution (provided that it is high enough), details of the (spatially uniform) UV background and reasonable alterations within our star formation prescription. We therefore conclude that the ability of SNe to regulate dwarf galaxy properties is dependent on other physical processes, such as turbulent pressure support, clustering and runaway of SN progenitors and other sources of stellar feedback.

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arXiv2019

Fast and energetic AGN-driven outflows in simulated dwarf galaxies

The systematic analysis of optical large-scale surveys has revealed a population of dwarf galaxies hosting AGN, which have been confirmed by X-ray follow-up observations. Recently, the MaNGA survey identified six dwarf galaxies that appear to have an AGN that is preventing on-going star formation. It is therefore timely to study the physical properties of dwarf galaxies, in particular whether the presence of an AGN can affect their evolution. Using the moving mesh code AREPO, we have investigated different models of AGN activity, ranging from simple energy-driven spherical winds to collimated, mass-loaded, bipolar outflows in high resolution simulations of isolated dwarf galaxies hosting an active black hole. Our simulations also include a novel implementation of star formation and mechanical supernova (SN) feedback. We find that AGN outflows have a small but systematic effect on the central star formation rates (SFRs) for all set-ups explored, while substantial effects on the global SFR are only obtained with strong SNe and a sustained high-luminosity AGN with an isotropic wind. This suggests that AGN feedback in dwarf galaxies is unlikely to directly regulate their global SFRs. There is, however, a significant effect on outflow properties, which are notably enhanced by the AGN to much higher outflow temperatures and velocities, in agreement with kinematic signatures from the MaNGA survey. This indicates that AGN may play an indirect role in regulating the baryon cycle in dwarf galaxies by hindering cosmic gas inflows.

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arXiv2018

Tracing the Sources of Reionization in Cosmological Radiation Hydrodynamics Simulations

We use the photon flux and absorption tracer algorithm presented in Katz et al.~2018, to characterise the contribution of haloes of different mass and stars of different age and metallicity to the reionization of the Universe. We employ a suite of cosmological multifrequency radiation hydrodynamics AMR simulations that are carefully calibrated to reproduce a realistic reionization history and galaxy properties at $z \geq 6$. In our simulations, haloes with mass $10^9{\rm M_{\odot}}h^{-1}<M<10^{10}{\rm M_{\odot}}h^{-1}$, stars with metallicity $10^{-3}Z_{\odot}<Z<10^{-1.5}Z_{\odot}$, and stars with age $3\,{\rm Myr} < t < 10 \, {\rm Myr}$ dominate reionization by both mass and volume. We show that the sources that reionize most of the volume of the Universe by $z=6$ are not necessarily the same sources that dominate the meta-galactic UV background at the same redshift. We further show that in our simulations, the contribution of each type of source to reionization is not uniform across different gas phases. The IGM, CGM, filaments, ISM, and rarefied supernova heated gas have all been photoionized by different classes of sources. Collisional ionisation contributes at both the lowest and highest densities. In the early stages of the formation of individual HII bubbles, reionization proceeds with the formation of concentric shells of gas ionised by different classes of sources, leading to large temperature variations as a function of galacto-centric radius. The temperature structure of individual HII bubbles may thus give insight into the star formation history of the galaxies acting as the first ionising sources. Our explorative simulations highlight how the complex nature of reionization can be better understood by using our photon tracer algorithm.

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arXiv2018

The FABLE simulations: A feedback model for galaxies, groups and clusters

We present the Feedback Acting on Baryons in Large-scale Environments (FABLE) suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of galaxies, groups and clusters. The simulations use the AREPO moving-mesh code with a set of physical models for galaxy formation based on the successful Illustris simulation, but with updated AGN and supernovae feedback models. This allows us to simultaneously reproduce the observed redshift evolution of the galaxy stellar mass function together with the stellar and gas mass fractions of local groups and clusters across a wide range of halo masses. Focusing on the properties of groups and clusters, we find very good agreement with a range of observed scaling relations, including the X-ray luminosity--total mass and gas mass relations as well as the total mass--temperature and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich flux--mass relations. Careful comparison of our results with scaling relations based on X-ray hydrostatic masses as opposed to weak lensing-derived masses reveals some discrepancies, which hint towards a non-negligible X-ray mass bias in observed samples. We further show that radial profiles of density, pressure and temperature of the simulated intracluster medium are in very good agreement with observations, in particular for $r > 0.3\ r_{500}$. In the innermost regions however we find too large entropy cores, which indicates that a more sophisticated modelling of the physics of AGN feedback may be required to accurately reproduce the observed populations of cool-core and non-cool-core clusters.

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arXiv2018

Impact of Cosmological Satellites on Stellar Discs: Dissecting One Satellite at a Time

Within the standard hierarchical structure formation scenario, Milky Way-mass dark matter haloes have hundreds of dark matter subhaloes with mass $\gtrsim 10^8 \, {\rm M_{\odot}}$. Over the lifetime of a galactic disc a fraction of these may pass close to the central region and interact with the disc. We extract the properties of subhaloes, such as their mass and trajectories, from a realistic cosmological simulation to study their potential effect on stellar discs. We find that massive subhalo impacts can generate disc heating, rings, bars, warps, lopsidedness as wells as spiral structures in the disc. Specifically, strong counter-rotating single-armed spiral structures form each time a massive subhalo passes through the disc. Such single-armed spirals wind up relatively quickly (over $1-2$ Gyrs) and are generally followed by co-rotating two-armed spiral structures that both develop and wind up more slowly. In our simulations self-gravity in the disc is not very strong and these spiral structures are found to be kinematic density waves. We demonstrate that there is a clear link between each spiral mode in the disc and a given subhalo that caused it, and by changing the mass of the subhalo we can modulate the strength of the spirals. Furthermore, we find that the majority of subhaloes interact with the disc impulsively, such that the strength of spirals generated by subhaloes is proportional to the total torque they exert. We conclude that only a handful of encounters with massive subhaloes is sufficient for re-generating and sustaining spiral structures in discs over their entire lifetime.

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arXiv2018

A Census of the LyC Photons that Form the UV Background During Reionization

We present a new, on-the-fly photon flux and absorption tracer algorithm designed to directly measure the contribution of different source populations to the metagalactic UV background and to the ionisation fraction of gas in the Universe. We use a suite of multifrequency radiation hydrodynamics simulations that are carefully calibrated to reproduce a realistic reionization history and galaxy properties at $z \ge 6$, to disentangle the contribution of photons emitted by different mass haloes and by stars with different metallicities and ages to the UV background during reionization. While at very early cosmic times low mass, metal poor haloes provide most of the LyC photons, their contribution decreases steadily with time. At $z = 6$ it is the photons emitted by massive systems (${\rm M_{halo}}/{\rm M_\odot} > 10^{10} \, {\rm h ^{-1}}$) and by the metal enriched stars ($10^{-3} < Z/Z_{\rm \odot} < 10^{-1.5}$) that provide the largest contribution to the ionising UV background. We demonstrate that there are large variations in the escape fraction depending on the source, with the escape fraction being highest ($\sim 45-60\%$) for photons emitted by the oldest stars that penetrate into the IGM via low opacity channels carved by the ionising photons and supernova from younger stars. Before HII regions begin to overlap, the photoionisation rate strongly fluctuates between different, isolated HII bubbles, depending on the embedded ionising source, which we suggest may result in spatial variations in the properties of dwarf galaxies.

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arXiv2018

Quenching star formation with quasar outflows launched by trapped IR radiation

We present cosmological radiation-hydrodynamic simulations, performed with the code Ramses-RT, of radiatively-driven outflows in a massive quasar host halo at $z = 6$. Our simulations include both single- and multi-scattered radiation pressure on dust from a quasar and are compared against simulations performed with thermal feedback. For radiation pressure-driving, we show that there is a critical quasar luminosity above which a galactic outflow is launched, set by the equilibrium of gravitational and radiation forces. While this critical luminosity is unrealistically high in the single-scattering limit for plausible black hole masses, it is in line with a $\approx 3 \times 10^9 \, \rm M_\odot$ black hole accreting at its Eddington limit, if infrared (IR) multi-scattering radiation pressure is included. The outflows are fast ($v \, \gtrsim \, 1000 \, \rm km \, s^{-1}$) and strongly mass-loaded with peak mass outflow rates $\approx 10^3 - 10^4 \, \rm M_\odot \, yr^{-1}$, but short-lived ($< 10 \, \rm Myr$). Outflowing material is multi-phase, though predominantly composed of cool gas, forming via a thermal instability in the shocked swept-up component. Radiation pressure- and thermally-driven outflows both affect their host galaxies significantly, but in different, complementary ways. Thermally-driven outflows couple more efficiently to diffuse halo gas, generating more powerful, hotter and more volume-filling outflows. IR radiation, through its ability to penetrate dense gas via diffusion, is more efficient at ejecting gas from the bulge. The combination of gas ejection through outflows with internal pressurisation by trapped IR radiation leads to a complete shut down of star formation in the bulge. We hence argue that radiation pressure-driven feedback may be an important ingredient in regulating star formation in compact starbursts, especially during the quasar's `obscured' phase.

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arXiv2018

Driving gas shells with radiation pressure on dust in radiation-hydrodynamic simulations

We present radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of radiatively-driven gas shells launched by bright active galactic nuclei (AGN) in isolated dark matter haloes. Our goals are (1) to investigate the ability of AGN radiation pressure on dust to launch galactic outflows and (2) to constrain the efficiency of infrared (IR) multi-scattering in boosting outflow acceleration. Our simulations are performed with the radiation-hydrodynamic code RAMSES-RT and include both single- and multi-scattered radiation pressure from an AGN, radiative cooling and self-gravity. Since outflowing shells always eventually become transparent to the incident radiation field, outflows that sweep up all intervening gas are likely to remain gravitationally bound to their halo even at high AGN luminosities. The expansion of outflowing shells is well described by simple analytic models as long as the shells are mildly optically thick to IR radiation. In this case, an enhancement in the acceleration of shells through IR multi-scattering occurs as predicted, i.e. a force dP/dt = tau_IR L/c is exerted on the gas. For high optical depths tau_IR > 50, however, momentum transfer between outflowing optically thick gas and IR radiation is rapidly suppressed, even if the radiation is efficiently confined. At high tau_IR, the characteristic flow time becomes shorter than the required trapping time of IR radiation such that the momentum flux dP/dt << tau_IR L/c. We argue that while unlikely to unbind massive galactic gaseous haloes, AGN radiation pressure on dust could play an important role in regulating star formation and black hole accretion in the nuclei of massive compact galaxies at high redshift.

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arXiv2018

Supernova feedback in numerical simulations of galaxy formation: separating physics from numerics

While feedback from massive stars exploding as supernovae (SNe) is thought to be one of the key ingredients regulating galaxy formation, theoretically it is still unclear how the available energy couples to the interstellar medium and how galactic scale outflows are launched. We present a novel implementation of six sub-grid SN feedback schemes in the moving-mesh code Arepo, including injections of thermal and/or kinetic energy, two parametrizations of delayed cooling feedback and a `mechanical' feedback scheme that injects the correct amount of momentum depending on the relevant scale of the SN remnant resolved. All schemes make use of individually time-resolved SN events. Adopting isolated disk galaxy setups at different resolutions, with the highest resolution runs reasonably resolving the Sedov-Taylor phase of the SN, we aim to find a physically motivated scheme with as few tunable parameters as possible. As expected, simple injections of energy overcool at all but the highest resolution. Our delayed cooling schemes result in overstrong feedback, destroying the disk. The mechanical feedback scheme is efficient at suppressing star formation, agrees well with the Kennicutt-Schmidt relation and leads to converged star formation rates and galaxy morphologies with increasing resolution without fine tuning any parameters. However, we find it difficult to produce outflows with high enough mass loading factors at all but the highest resolution, indicating either that we have oversimplified the evolution of unresolved SN remnants, require other stellar feedback processes to be included, require a better star formation prescription or most likely some combination of these issues.

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arXiv2018

Galactic nuclei evolution with spinning black holes: method and implementation

Supermassive black holes at the centre of galactic nuclei mostly grow in mass through gas accretion over cosmic time. This process also modifies the angular momentum (or spin) of black holes, both in magnitude and in orientation. Despite being often neglected in galaxy formation simulations, spin plays a crucial role in modulating accretion power, driving jet feedback, and determining recoil velocity of coalescing black hole binaries. We present a new accretion model for the moving-mesh code {\sc arepo} that incorporates (i) mass accretion through a thin $α$-disc, and (ii) spin evolution through the Bardeen-Petterson effect. We use a diverse suite of idealised simulations to explore the physical connection between spin evolution and larger scale environment. We find that black holes with mass $\lesssim 10^{7}$ M$_{\odot}$ experience quick alignment with the accretion disc. This favours prolonged phases of spin-up, and the spin direction evolves according to the gas inflow on timescales as short as $\lesssim 100$ Myr, which might explain the observed jet direction distribution in Seyfert galaxies. Heavier black holes ($\gtrsim 10^{8}$ M$_{\odot}$) are instead more sensitive to the local gas kinematic. Here we find a wider distribution in spin magnitudes: spin-ups are favoured if gas inflow maintains a preferential direction, and spin-downs occur for nearly isotropic infall, while the spin direction does not change much over short timescales $\sim 100$ Myr. We therefore conclude that supermassive black holes with masses $\gtrsim 5 \times 10^{8}$ M$_{\odot}$ may be the ideal testbed to determine the main mode of black hole fuelling over cosmic time.

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arXiv2017

AGN jet feedback on a moving mesh: cocoon inflation, gas flows and turbulence

In many observed galaxy clusters, jets launched by the accretion process on to supermassive black holes, inflate large-scale cavities filled with energetic, relativistic plasma. This process is thought to be responsible for regulating cooling losses, thus moderating the inflow of gas on to the central galaxy, quenching further star formation and maintaining the galaxy in a red and dead state. In this paper, we implement a new jet feedback scheme into the moving mesh-code arepo, contrast different jet injection techniques and demonstrate the validity of our implementation by comparing against simple analytical models. We find that jets can significantly affect the intracluster medium (ICM), offset the overcooling through a number of heating mechanisms, as well as drive turbulence, albeit within the jet lobes only. Jet-driven turbulence is, however, a largely ineffective heating source and is unlikely to dominate the ICM heating budget even if the jet lobes efficiently fill the cooling region, as it contains at most only a few per cent of the total injected energy. We instead show that the ICM gas motions, generated by orbiting substructures, while inefficient at heating the ICM, drive large-scale turbulence and when combined with jet feedback, result in line-of-sight velocities and velocity dispersions consistent with the Hitomi observations of the Perseus cluster.

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arXiv2017

The effect of stellar and AGN feedback on the low redshift Lyman-$α$ forest in the Sherwood simulation suite

We study the effect of different feedback prescriptions on the properties of the low redshift ($z\leq1.6$) Ly$α$ forest using a selection of hydrodynamical simulations drawn from the Sherwood simulation suite. The simulations incorporate stellar feedback, AGN feedback and a simplified scheme for efficiently modelling the low column density Ly$α$ forest. We confirm a discrepancy remains between Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) observations of the Ly$α$ forest column density distribution function (CDDF) at $z \simeq 0.1$ for high column density systems ($N_{\rm HI}>10^{14}\rm\,cm^{-2}$), as well as Ly$α$ velocity widths that are too narrow compared to the COS data. Stellar or AGN feedback -- as currently implemented in our simulations -- have only a small effect on the CDDF and velocity width distribution. We conclude that resolving the discrepancy between the COS data and simulations requires an increase in the temperature of overdense gas with $Δ=4$--$40$, either through additional He$\,\rm \scriptstyle II\ $ photo-heating at $z>2$ or fine-tuned feedback that ejects overdense gas into the IGM at just the right temperature for it to still contribute significantly to the Ly$α$ forest. Alternatively a larger, currently unresolved turbulent component to the line width could resolve the discrepancy.

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arXiv2017

Constraints on AGN feedback from its Sunyaev-Zel'dovich imprint on the cosmic background radiation

We derive constraints on feedback by active galactic nuclei (AGN) by setting limits on their thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) imprint on the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The amplitude of any SZ signature is small and degenerate with the poorly known sub-mm spectral energy distribution of the AGN host galaxy and other unresolved dusty sources along the line of sight. Here we break this degeneracy by combining microwave and sub-mm data from Planck with all-sky far-infrared maps from the AKARI satellite. We first test our measurement pipeline using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) redMaPPer catalogue of galaxy clusters, finding a highly significant detection ($>$$20σ$) of the SZ effect together with correlated dust emission. We then constrain the SZ signal associated with spectroscopically confirmed quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) from SDSS data release 7 (DR7) and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) DR12. We obtain a low-significance ($1.6σ$) hint of an SZ signal, pointing towards a mean thermal energy of $\simeq 5 \times 10^{60}$ erg, lower than reported in some previous studies. A comparison of our results with high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations including AGN feedback suggests QSO host masses of $M_{200c} \sim 4 \times 10^{12}~h^{-1}M_\odot$, but with a large uncertainty. Our analysis provides no conclusive evidence for an SZ signal specifically associated with AGN feedback.

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arXiv2017

The Origin and Evolution of Fast and Slow Rotators in the Illustris Simulation

Using the Illustris simulation, we follow thousands of elliptical galaxies back in time to identify how the dichotomy between fast and slow rotating ellipticals (FRs and SRs) develops. Comparing to the $\textrm{ATLAS}^\textrm{3D}$ survey, we show that Illustris reproduces similar elliptical galaxy rotation properties, quantified by the degree of ordered rotation, $λ_\textrm{R}$. There is a clear segregation between low-mass ($M_{\rm *} < 10^{11} M_{\rm \odot}$) ellipticals, which form a smooth distribution of FRs, and high-mass galaxies ($M_{\rm *} > 10^{11.5} M_{\rm \odot}$), which are mostly SRs, in agreement with observations. We find that SRs are very gas poor, metal rich and red in colour, while FRs are generally more gas rich and still star forming. We suggest that ellipticals begin naturally as FRs and, as they grow in mass, lose their spin and become SRs. While at $z = 1$, the progenitors of SRs and FRs are nearly indistinguishable, their merger and star formation histories differ thereafter. We find that major mergers tend to disrupt galaxy spin, though in rare cases can lead to a spin-up. No major difference is found between the effects of gas-rich and gas-poor mergers and the amount of minor mergers seem to have little correlation with galaxy spin. In between major mergers, lower-mass ellipticals, which are mostly gas-rich, tend to recover their spin by accreting gas and stars. For galaxies with $M_{\rm *}$ above $\sim 10^{11} M_{\rm \odot}$, this trend reverses; galaxies only retain or steadily lose their spin. More frequent mergers, accompanied by an inability to regain spin, lead massive ellipticals to lose most of ordered rotation and transition from FRs to SRs.

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arXiv2017

Interpreting ALMA Observations of the ISM During the Epoch of Reionisation

We present cosmological, radiation-hydrodynamics simulations of galaxy formation during the epoch of reionization in an effort towards modelling the interstellar medium (ISM) and interpreting ALMA observations. Simulations with and without stellar radiation are compared at large (Mpc), intermediate (tens of kpc), and small (sub kpc) scales. At large scales, the dense regions around galaxies reionize first before UV photons penetrate the voids; however, considerable amounts of neutral gas remain present within the haloes. The spatial distribution of neutral gas is highly dynamic and is anti-correlated with the presence of stars older than a few Myrs. For our specific feedback implementation, most of the metals remain inside the virial radii of haloes and they are proportionally distributed over the ionized and neutral medium by mass. For our most massive galaxy with ${\rm M_h}\sim10^{11}$M$_{\odot}$, the majority of the CII and OI mass are associated with cold neutral clumps. NII is more diffuse and arises in warmer gas while OIII arises in hotter gas with a higher ionization parameter, produced by photo-heating and supernovae. If smaller pockets of high metallicity gas exist in the ISM, the emission from these ions may be observable by ALMA while the low metallicity of the galaxy may cause these systems to fall below the local [CII]-SFR relation. The presence of dust can cause spatial offsets between UV/Ly$α$ and [CII] emission as suggested by the recent observations of Maiolino et al. [OIII] may be spatially offset from both of these components since it arises from a different part of density-temperature phase-space.

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arXiv2017

Black hole clustering and duty cycles in the Illustris simulation

We use the high-resolution cosmological simulation Illustris to investigate the clustering of supermassive black holes across cosmic time, the link between black hole clustering and host halo masses, and the implications for black hole duty cycles. Our predicted black hole correlation length and bias match the observational data very well across the full redshift range probed. Black hole clustering is strongly luminosity-dependent on small, 1-halo scales, with some moderate dependence on larger scales of a few Mpc at intermediate redshifts. We find black hole clustering to evolve only weakly with redshift, initially following the behaviour of their hosts. However below z ~ 2 black hole clustering increases faster than that of their hosts, which leads to a significant overestimate of the clustering-predicted host halo mass. The full distribution of host halo masses is very wide, including a low-mass tail extending up to an order of magnitude below the naive prediction for minimum host mass. Our black hole duty cycles follow a power-law dependence on black hole mass and decrease with redshift, and we provide accurate analytic fits to these. The increase in clustering amplitude at late times, however, means that duty cycle estimates based on black hole clustering can overestimate duty cycles substantially, by more than two orders of magnitude. We find the best agreement when the minimum host mass is assumed to be $10^{11.2} M_\odot$ , which provides an accurate measure across all redshifts and luminosity ranges probed by our simulation.

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