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Delu Zeng

Publications and source records attributed to Delu Zeng.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Diagnosing Under-Development of Irreversible Processes in Video Generation

Many physical attributes are \emph{irreversible}: ice melts but does not re-freeze, paper chars but does not un-burn. Do video generators respect this? We show the question is hard to measure, and that what can be measured reliably is \emph{development} rather than reversal. Metrics of local reversal are null-degenerate: a per-clip violation rate scores $0.50$ on pure noise, and a variance-normalized reversal residual sits at its noise ceiling. What survives null-testing is a two-part protocol: progress (a directional attribute correlation) and a stasis rate. Under this protocol, generated video separates cleanly from real footage, and the gap is human-validated. Across seven text-to-video models, real reference footage advances ($\rho{=}{+}0.40$, $35\%$ static) while every generator shows near-zero progress and $92$--$100\%$ stasis; nine annotators rate real footage far above generated ($2.75$ vs.\ $0.99$ on a $0$--$4$ scale). The reliable finding is \emph{under-development}: generators barely advance irreversible attributes rather than reversing them. As a complementary mechanism, we show that post-hoc readout guidance is gameable, whereas enforcing monotonicity by construction in a disentangled attribute latent removes the gameable readout, validated in controlled and semi-synthetic settings.

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arXiv2026

DiFA: Inference-Time Forward-Process Alignment for Diffusion Models

The prevailing inference framework for diffusion models formulates generation fundamentally as a problem of numerical integration. This perspective casts the model as an exact estimator, neglecting the inherent statistical uncertainty of the denoising process. In this work, we propose Forward-Process Aligned Diffusion prediction (\textbf{DiFA}), a training-free framework that reframes inference-time data prediction refinement as a sequential state estimation problem. Rather than reusing past outputs solely for numerical integration, DiFA treats iterative data predictions along the reverse trajectory as correlated observations to build a forward-aligned temporal consensus. Inspired by Kalman filtering, this consensus aggregates historical predictions according to structural consistency and noise-level compatibility. To counteract the over-smoothing tendency of temporal consensus, we introduce a deviation guidance mechanism to adaptively preserve residual details. Empirically, DiFA yields significant improvements on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet across the evaluated metrics, including FID, IS, and FD-DINOv2, demonstrating that aligning inference with the forward statistical structure substantially improves generative fidelity.

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arXiv2026

Fixed-Protocol Amortized MPS Tomography with Conformalized Predictive Uncertainty

Quantum state tomography is sample-starved, and the states one prepares live on a narrow, learnable manifold. A $k{=}0$ prior-only control shows that on concentrated families a prior estimate is already near-optimal, so ``high fidelity at few measurements'' can be family memorization rather than tomography; genuine measurement-efficiency needs a model that conditions on the measurements and demonstrably uses them. On a shared matrix-product-state (MPS) core parameterization we study two routes. Approach~A learns a generative prior over MPS cores with measurement-guided posterior inference (gold-standard-validated, but whose few-measurement accuracy the control shows is largely the prior). Approach~B, our main proposal, is a \emph{fixed-protocol amortized} MPS estimator trained once with a gauge-invariant fidelity loss; we deliberately do not rest it on a permutation-invariant set encoder (a plain MLP matches it). The decisive lever is the measurement design: motivated by the fact that local reduced density matrices determine a $\chi$-MPS, conditioning on an \emph{informative local} Pauli set rather than random strings turns a modest, memorization-prone estimator into a high-fidelity one ($\approx\!0.95$, up to $+0.59$ over prior-only, decisively passing a shuffled-measurement control). A dropout ensemble, conformally recalibrated, gives $\approx\!90\%$-coverage intervals -- including for observables never measured, where a shot-based interval does not exist. Quality holds as the system grows (fidelity $0.90$ at $n{=}10$, gain \emph{growing} in $n$; $0.88$ at bond dimension $\chi{=}4$), the parameterization is polynomial (native contraction to $20$ qubits), and we close the loop on IBM hardware ($5$ states at $0.97$ from hardware-measured Paulis).

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arXiv2026

Entanglement as a Structural Complexity Axis: A PAC-Bayesian View of Generalization in Quantum Policies and Value Functions

Parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs) are increasingly used as policies and value functions in quantum reinforcement learning, yet it remains unclear when and why quantum policies generalize. We give a PAC-Bayesian account in which generalization is governed not by the raw number of circuit parameters, but by the effective dimension of the Fisher geometry induced by the circuit. This quantity is inflated by entanglement, making entangling connectivity an independent axis of complexity.In controlled experiments that fix the number of trainable rotations and vary only entanglement, we find that circuits with larger Fisher effective dimension exhibit larger train-test gaps, while parameter count is a weak predictor. The resulting bound acts primarily as a ranking certificate: it correctly orders circuits with identical parameter count, which parameter-counting bounds cannot do. We validate this mechanism across supervised classification, quantum contextual bandits, and value-function generalization, where entangled circuits consistently generalize worse than non-entangled circuits of equal parameter count, with gaps shrinking as sample size increases.Our strongest evidence comes from low-variance decision models, including single-observable classifiers, value heads, and one-step policies. In end-to-end multi-step policy learning, entanglement effects remain statistically significant but high return variance leaves the full ordering only partially resolved. Partial-correlation analysis shows that Fisher effective dimension screens off entangling pattern, and controls for training accuracy, readout, and optimizer rule out major optimization confounders. The effect also persists on an IBM Heron quantum processor under real noise. Overall, our results reframe quantum policy design around an entanglement--generalization trade-off rather than expressivity alone.

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arXiv2026

When Can You Debias an LLM Judge? Identifiability Limits, a Test, and Designs for Top-k Ranking

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as cheap, scalable judges that compare candidate outputs pairwise. Because such judges prefer verbose or well-formatted answers, the natural fix is to add bias covariates to a Bradley--Terry model and estimate the bias away. We show this cannot work as advertised: the quality/bias split is \emph{not identified} by pairwise comparisons, and the failure is exact -- across $48$ real judge-pools the profile likelihood over the coefficient is flat to $\mathbf{0.0000}$ \textbf{nats}, and scaling the comparisons $26\times$ buys none. A ``debiased'' score is selected by the prior, not recovered from data. Our contribution is accordingly not a better estimator but a characterization of \emph{when prior-based correction is justified}, plus designs that supply the missing information when it is not. The assumption the prior encodes -- quality is a priori uncorrelated with the covariate -- pays only while $\mathrm{corr}(\theta,x)$ stays below a crossing point (configuration-dependent, $0.22$--$0.60$), which is what makes the same model help on LLMBar and hurt on SummEval and Nectar. We give two escapes: a \textbf{trusted-anchor gate} that decides per (judge, covariate, task) (no false enables in $6{,}000$ decisions at $K\ge10$ anchors, a rate our sample bounds at $\le6\%$), and a \textbf{paired rendering design}. Across fifteen real LLM judges bias is heterogeneous and capability-dependent: correction improves \topk{} recall by $0.20$--$0.32$ on five biased-but-competent cheap judges and is a no-op on frontier ones (Spearman $\rho{=}{-}0.84$ between competence and gain over the $14$ competent judges, $p{<}10^{-3}$), concentrating the benefit where at-scale evaluation happens.

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arXiv2026

Calibration, Not Compilation: Detecting and Repairing Misspecified Probabilistic Programs Written by Language Models

Language models increasingly write probabilistic programs (in NumPyro, Stan, or Pyro), but a program that compiles, runs, and passes every unit test can still be \emph{statistically} wrong -- a Gaussian likelihood for heavy-tailed data, a Poisson for over-dispersed counts, an invalid prior support, or a pathological parameterization. The right verifier is therefore not a test suite but the Bayesian workflow itself: posterior predictive checks, simulation-based calibration, sampler diagnostics ($\hat R$, divergences, ESS), and held-out predictive density. We study this calibration oracle along three axes. \textbf{Detection:} on a benchmark of $14$ misspecification types across $10$ model families ($200$ instances), it flags the bug with AUC $0.97$ ($88\%$ at $2\%$ FPR \emph{when handed the correct reference program, an upper bound}) -- and a fully \emph{reference-free} version that uses no correct program reaches $62$--$78\%$ (the upper figure from a small automated model search), versus $0\%$ for a unit-test oracle. \textbf{Repair:} used as feedback in an LLM repair loop across fifteen models, calibration significantly outperforms unit-test feedback -- which is itself \emph{significantly worse than no feedback at all}, a passing test inducing false confidence that suppresses repair -- and improves over no feedback on strong-but-unsaturated models (GPT-5.1 $33{\to}92\%$, Claude $75{\to}100\%$; paired McNemar, $n{=}228$). \textbf{Reality:} on programs LLMs write from scratch for neutral briefs, $15$--$47\%$ of runnable ones are statistically misspecified (unit tests catch none), and calibration-guided repair significantly beats LLM-as-judge review, a Bayesian-workflow checklist, and data-summary self-debug. Across all three, the lesson is the same: for probabilistic programs, correctness is calibration, not compilation.

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arXiv2026

Active Quantum Kernel Acquisition for Gaussian Process Regression

Quantum kernel estimation on near-term hardware is shot-budgeted: every entry of the kernel Gram matrix is a Bernoulli expectation that must be sampled with a finite number of circuit executions. Recent work on quantum kernel classification has shown that allocating shots non-uniformly across kernel entries, weighted by their downstream task sensitivity, can reduce the shot budget required to reach a target accuracy. We extend this idea to Gaussian process (GP) regression, a setting whose downstream quantities (full-spectrum posterior variance, log-determinant, marginal likelihood) couple to kernel error more tightly than the sign-only outputs of classification. We derive three closed-form pair-level sensitivities predictive coupling $|\alpha_i\alpha_j|$, leave-one-out residual, and marginal-likelihood gradient and plug them into a Neyman-style minimum-variance allocation rule. To prevent catastrophic over-concentration when the warm-up sensitivity estimate is itself noisy, we add a high uniform coverage floor justified by a Frobenius lower bound on the missing-entry perturbation. On four UCI benchmarks and two synthetic RBF + Bernoulli controlled studies, the resulting allocator delivers $10$--$21\%$ test-RMSE improvement over uniform allocation across the moderate-budget regime. The gain transfers (i) to genuine ZZ and Pauli-Z quantum kernels on quantum-natural data ($-13$--$15\%$ at low budget, $p<0.05$ paired) and (ii) to four downstream tasks (Bayesian quadrature, heteroscedastic regression, hyperparameter learning, multi-output Cokriging). On UCI features embedded into a ZZ kernel the gain disappears, consistent with the exponential-concentration regime where shot allocation has nothing to exploit.

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arXiv2026

What Do Flow-Based Inverse Solvers Approximate? A Posterior-Transport View

A growing family of training-free solvers -- FlowDPS, FLOWER, PnP-Flow and their diffusion ancestors (DPS, DAPS) -- repurpose a pretrained flow-matching prior to solve imaging inverse problems by adding a measurement-guidance term to the deterministic probability-flow ODE. Despite strong empirical results, what these per-step corrections actually approximate -- and how far the resulting samples are from the true posterior $p(x\mid y)$ -- has not been characterized. We give a posterior-transport account of flow-based inverse problem solving. Our starting point is a simple but consequential fact: for a \emph{deterministic} flow prior, Bayesian conditioning is realized entirely by a \emph{reweighting of the source distribution}, not by a drift correction; pushing the reweighted source through the \emph{unmodified} velocity field yields exact posterior samples. From this we show that trajectory-guidance solvers can be read as the minimum-kinetic-energy \emph{correction} field needed to morph the unconditional source into the posterior, and that FlowDPS / FLOWER / PnP-Flow correspond to distinct zeroth-order / Gaussian / proximal approximations of this single object; we bound the resulting posterior bias in Wasserstein distance. A controlled $2$D study with a closed-form posterior confirms the theory decisively: source reweighting matches the true posterior to the Monte-Carlo floor on every metric, whereas trajectory guidance incurs $200$--$800\times$ larger error and collapses posterior modes, \emph{regardless of guidance strength}. Guided by the analysis we propose a cheap, principled velocity-correction solver that is competitive across two in-domain priors (AFHQ, CelebA) and two out-of-distribution settings while, unlike point-estimate source-space optimizers, producing diverse posterior samples with uncertainty that correlates with reconstruction error.

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arXiv2026

Intrinsic Flow Matching on Quantum Pure-State Manifolds with Phase-Aligned Transport

Quantum pure-state ensembles live on complex projective space, making flat Euclidean generative modeling geometrically mismatched. We introduce Intrinsic Flow Matching (IFM), a deterministic transport framework on $\mathbb{CP}^{d-1}$ that learns tangent velocity fields using Pancharatnam phase-aligned conditional paths. IFM replaces local score teachers and reverse-time stochastic sampling with manifold probability flow, while horizontal parameterization removes redundant ambient directions. We show that the IFM objective recovers the induced marginal transport field, represents deterministic projective ensemble flows, and yields endpoint and stability guarantees. Empirically, IFM often improves over ambient Euclidean flow matching across higher-qubit, multimodal, spin-coherent, physics-inspired, and amplitude-encoded MNIST image-vector benchmarks, with strongest gains on high-dimensional and coherence-sensitive tasks but not uniformly across every metric.

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arXiv2026

Effective Dimension Governs Generalization in Quantum Kernel Vision Models

Recent quantum vision models-quantum vision transformers and quantum convolutional networks-report two striking but unexplained empirical phenomena: (i) ansatze with more, or more uniformly distributed, entanglement generalize better, and (ii) injecting quantum noise can improve test accuracy rather than degrade it. These observations are currently treated as curiosities, discovered by grid search and explained, if at all, by hand. We show that both are manifestations of a single, measurable quantity: the \emph{effective dimension} $d_{\rm eff}$ of the (noise-shaped) quantum feature kernel. Working primarily with quantum-kernel vision models-a quantum feature map read out by a kernel classifier-we give a spectral account in which entanglement structure and quantum noise are two knobs that move $d_{\rm eff}$; in an overfitting regime, contracting $d_{\rm eff}$ acts as ridge-like regularization. We analyze the mechanism: an \emph{exact} decomposition of the depolarized kernel $K_p=(1-p)^2K+\tfrac{p(2-p)}{D}\mathbf{1}\mathbf{1}^\top$ with $d_{\rm eff}(K_p)\to1$, a contraction result (and its boundary) for amplitude damping, a kernel-machine capacity bound, and a capacity/alignment risk decomposition; the monotone contraction operative in our entangled experiments is verified empirically, not proven in general. Along the one-parameter depolarizing family the collapse is instead exact by construction; we use it only to confirm the kernel decomposition to machine precision and at up to $12$ qubits, not as evidence for $d_{\rm eff}$. Amplitude damping contracts $d_{\rm eff}$ and lifts test accuracy by up to $+13\%$ along an inverted-U sweet spot; the effect's sign flips between the over- and under-fitting regimes; noise injection matches an explicit spectral-filtering frontier. Our results organize two reported anecdotes into a single measurable principle for designing quantum-vision models.

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arXiv2026

Look Again Before You Abstain:Budgeted Conformal Evidence Acquisition for Reliable Vision-Language Model

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) hallucinate: they assert visual details that the image does not support. A principled remedy is selective prediction with a distribution-free guarantee-verify each claim and abstain when the claim is not grounded, so that the hallucination rate among asserted claims is provably bounded. We show, however, that this guarantee is bought at a brutal price: to keep the hallucination rate below $5\%$ on a balanced object-existence benchmark, a state-of-the-art conformal filter must abstain on more than $80\%$ of claims. We argue that abstention is wasteful when more visual evidence is cheaply available, and introduce Budgeted Conformal Evidence Acquisition (BCEA), which replaces the binary answer/abstain decision with a three-way choice: answer, abstain, or acquire additional visual evidence by re-examining the image (zooming, cropping, or applying a claim-specific intervention) under a bounded

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arXiv2026

Implicit Variational Rejection Sampling

Variational Inference (VI) is a fundamental inference technique in Bayesian machine learning for approximating complex posterior distributions. Traditional VI often relies on the mean-field factorization, which can inadequately capture true posterior complexity. Recent advancements have leveraged neural networks to model implicit distributions, offering increased flexibility. However, the practical constraints of neural network architectures still produces inaccuracies. In this paper, we propose a method called Implicit Variational Rejection Sampling (IVRS), which integrates implicit distributions with rejection sampling to improve the posterior approximation. Our method uses neural networks to construct implicit proposal distributions, and rejection sampling with a discriminator network that estimates the density ratio between the implicit proposal and the true posterior for refining the approximation. Towards this end, we introduce the Implicit Resampling Evidence Lower Bound (IR-ELBO) as a metric to characterize the resampled distribution's quality and derive a tighter variational lower bound. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional variational inference techniques.

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arXiv2026

Higher-Order Token Interactions via Quantum Attention

Standard dot-product self-attention computes, in a single layer, only pairwise (order-2) interactions between tokens; representing a generic order-$k$ interaction is known to require either super-quadratic resources in one layer or composition across depth. We introduce \textbf{Quantum Higher-Order Attention (QHA)}, a shallow, hardware-realizable quantum attention head that, via data re-uploading and an all-to-all non-Clifford entangler, synthesizes order-$k$ token interactions inside the circuit and exposes them through a local single-qubit read-out. We prove (i) an expressivity separation: any single standard self-attention layer with embedding dimension $m$, $H$ heads and $p$-bit precision satisfying $mHp=o(N/\log\log N)$ cannot represent the order-$k$ correlation family that one QHA head represents with circuit depth $O(\log k)$ ($O(k)$ two-qubit gates); and (ii) a trainability guarantee for its local-design instantiation: with a local read-out and $O(\log n)$ depth the gradient variance is $\Omega(1/\mathrm{poly}(n))$ (no barren plateau), which we confirm empirically -- while being explicit that the more expressive all-to-all instantiation we benchmark is trained empirically and shows exponentially decaying gradients. Empirically, at a $6.5\times$ smaller parameter budget, QHA generalizes hidden-subset parity of every order $k\le6$ from disjoint inputs, whereas the larger classical attention head collapses past order~2; consistent with theory, the size of the advantage tracks the target's Fourier degree - largest for parity and shrinking when low-order structure is present. As an application, QHA serves as a compact high-order interaction detector across three domains - genetic epistasis, learning-parity-with-noise, and graph triangle detection - reaching the noise ceiling at the smallest parameter budget where field-standard linear methods fail.

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arXiv2026

Mitigating the Contractivity Trap in Diffusion ODEs via Stein Stabilization

A fundamental tension exists in the large-step inference of diffusion models via their deterministic probability flow ordinary differential equation (PF-ODE) trajectories, which we identify as the contractivity trap: efficient inference favors large step sizes, while aggressive steps and highly expressive denoisers can undermine contraction-based stability certificates for error suppression. To address this, we propose SteinDiff, a step-wise inference-time stabilization framework that employs Stein-derived corrections without requiring reference samples. Specifically, SteinDiff introduces a geometry-aware residual correction mechanism that regularizes large-step solver updates without retraining. To this end, we derive a closed-form Stein correction coefficient for step-wise solver adjustment, enabling reference-free adaptation to local data geometry. We further establish a score-controlled perturbation bound under distributional shifts and provide a complementary Stein perspective on EDM-style parameterizations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SteinDiff mitigates severe artifacts and improves generative quality across large-step inference settings.

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arXiv2026

The Right Measure for Physics-Constrained Generation: A Co-Area Correction for Posterior-Consistent PDE Inverse Problems

Generative models -- diffusion and flow matching -- are increasingly used to solve partial differential equation (PDE) inverse problems, enforcing the governing physics as a \emph{hard constraint} (via projection or guidance) and reporting the resulting samples as a Bayesian posterior with calibrated uncertainty. We show that this widely adopted recipe samples the wrong distribution. Conditioning a generative prior on a hard PDE constraint is conditioning on a measure-zero manifold -- an operation that is intrinsically ambiguous (the Borel--Kolmogorov paradox) and whose physically correct resolution, the small-residual-noise limit, carries a co-area (Fixman) Jacobian factor $[det(JJ^{\top})]^{-1/2}$ that projection- and guidance-based methods silently omit. We make the bias precise, show that it grows with the heterogeneity of the constraint sensitivity, and validate it on controlled problems against an \emph{i.i.d.} ground-truth arbiter. The omitted factor is not a second-order detail: removing it inflates the posterior error to $20\times$ the sampling-noise floor; minimal-displacement projection (as in PCFM) is biased at $9\times$ the floor; and a naive scalar reweighting does not fix it. We introduce \textbf{CoCoS}, a measure-aware constrained sampler that targets the correct co-area posterior, and show that it matches the gold-standard posterior to within sampling noise. Our results imply that ``satisfying the physics'' is not the same as ``sampling the posterior,'' and give a principled correction for uncertainty-aware scientific inference.

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arXiv2026

Spectral Anatomy of Quantum Gaussian Process Kernels

Two recent results have reshaped quantum Gaussian processes (QGPs). On the one hand, \citet{lowe2025assessing} rule out the exponential speedups claimed by HHL-based QGP regression in the typical, well-conditioned regime; on the other, an independent line of work shows that highly expressive quantum kernels suffer posterior pathologies that break Bayesian optimization. We show that these seemingly unrelated phenomena are governed by the same quantity: the normalized spectral entropy $S(K)/\log n$ of the kernel Gram matrix. We prove a Cauchy--Schwarz tail bound on Nystr\"om approximation error, a finite-sample variance-contraction identity in terms of Bach's degrees of freedom $d_\sigma(K)$, and a characterization of the \emph{target-dependent} optimal entropy via the intrinsic dimension of the target in the kernel eigenbasis. Empirically, the diagnostic is kernel-agnostic: hardware-efficient, matchgate, IQP \emph{and} RBF/Mat\'ern/RFF/deep-kernel families all collapse onto identical $S/\log n$ curves on dequantization, ECE, and variance-contraction panels. The NLL sweet spot lives at high entropy for smooth targets and at low entropy for band-limited quantum-data targets. The diagnostic transfers from simulator to IBM Heron hardware with median absolute error $3.2\%$ and mean $5.2\%$ in $S/\log n$ across $24$ configurations at $n_q = 4$, with matchgate and IQP within $5\%$ mean and a single HE configuration returning a $30\%$ outlier that drops to $0.5\%$ on rerun (attributed to calibration drift); the same diagnostic transfers to a second Heron backend (mean error $2.7\%$) and to a $n_q = 6$ scale-up on the original backend (mean error $1.7\%$). No error mitigation is applied throughout.

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arXiv2026

Onsager-Machlup Posterior Transport for Deep Gaussian Processes

Approximate inference over inducing variables is the central computational bottleneck of Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs). Existing methods either fit an explicit density $q_\phi(\bU)$ by an ELBO (DSVI, IPVI, DDVI, DBVI) or sample by MCMC (SGHMC). We instead frame DGP inference as \emph{posterior transport}: learn a deterministic sampler that maps a tractable reference measure to posterior-relevant inducing variables, regularised by a path prior derived from the Doob-bridged reference diffusion. Our realisation, \textbf{OM-Path} (formally FBVI-bridge-Path), uses Song's probability-flow ODE applied to DBVI's Doob-bridged forward SDE; the reference drift is closed-form from the bridge marginal coefficients (no score matching) and the path regulariser is the \textbf{Onsager--Machlup action}. At the finite-$\epsilon$ value used at training, the objective is the negative log unnormalised density of a tempered Doob-bridge path posterior, and Theorem 1 identifies it with the same posterior's small-noise MAP path via the Freidlin--Wentzell LDP. Two strict path-space ELBO variants on the same bridge backbone (FFJORD log-det; OM-regularised CNF) are derived as ablations. Under a matched-seed paired Wilcoxon test against DBVI on seven UCI regression benchmarks, OM-Path delivers statistically significant wins on the two largest datasets (\textit{power}: $p\!=\!0.014$, NLL $\mathbf{0.012}$ matching the DSVI baseline of $0.017$; \textit{protein}: $p\!=\!0.002$, RMSE $\mathbf{0.716}$ vs.\ $0.764$, NLL $\mathbf{1.086}$ vs.\ $1.149$), statistical ties on \textit{yacht} / \textit{qsar}, and concedes \textit{boston} / \textit{energy} / \textit{concrete} to DBVI on small-$N$ noisy data. The strict-ELBO variants do not clear DBVI on any UCI metric: in this regime, reducing the variance of the path objective dominates exact-density tracking.

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arXiv2026

AQKA: Active Quantum Kernel Acquisition Under a Shot Budget

Estimating an $N \times N$ quantum kernel from circuit fidelities requires $\Theta(N^2 S)$ measurement shots, the dominant bottleneck for deployment on near-term hardware. Existing budget-saving methods (Nystr\"om-QKE, ShoFaR, kernel-target alignment) sub-sample \emph{which} entries to measure but allocate shots \emph{uniformly} within their chosen subset, ignoring how much each entry drives the downstream classifier. We close this gap with two contributions. \textbf{First, a complete regime decomposition} for shot-budgeted quantum kernel learning: a principled menu of when each allocator wins. Our method, \emph{AQKA}, dominates the budget-limited regime ($B \lesssim 16 n_{\mathrm{pairs}}$) on sparse-sensitivity KRR, with the gap \emph{growing} from $+8$ to $+25$ pts over uniform as $N$ scales $225{\to}1000$ and reaching $+26$--$32$ pts on an \texttt{ibm\_pittsburgh} (156-qubit Heron) hardware kernel; Nystr\"om-QKE wins at saturating budgets on planted-sparse via low-rank reconstruction; ShoFaR is competitive only at extreme low budgets. \textbf{Second, a closed-form pair-level acquisition theory}: $s_{ij}^{\star} \propto |g_{ij}|\sqrt{K_{ij}(1-K_{ij})}$ with explicit gradient $g_{ij}$ for KRR (Lemma~1, $|\beta_i\alpha_j+\beta_j\alpha_i|\sqrt{K_{ij}(1-K_{ij})}$) and SVM via the envelope theorem ($|\eta_i^*\eta_j^*|\sqrt{K_{ij}(1-K_{ij})}$); a \emph{corrected} sparsity-aware Cauchy--Schwarz rate $\rho \le 2m/N$ matching empirics (vs.\ the naive $m^2/N^2$); an explicit-constant plug-in regret bound (Theorem~2); and a tighter SVM ceiling $\rho^{\mathrm{SVM}} \le m_{\mathrm{sv}}^2/N^2$. We close with the first multi-seed live online adaptive shot allocation on quantum hardware: $+17.0 \pm 4.8$ pts at $N{=}20$ on \texttt{ibm\_aachen} ($3.5\sigma$, 5 seeds), with the advantage holding at $N{=}30$ at higher budget on \texttt{ibm\_berlin} ($+14.0 \pm 8.5$ pts, 5 seeds).

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