arXiv subjects

Denis Larocque

Publications and source records attributed to Denis Larocque.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Improving the generalizability and robustness of large-scale traffic signal control

A number of deep reinforcement-learning (RL) approaches propose to control traffic signals. In this work, we study the robustness of such methods along two axes. First, sensor failures and GPS occlusions create missing-data challenges and we show that recent methods remain brittle in the face of these missing data. Second, we provide a more systematic study of the generalization ability of RL methods to new networks with different traffic regimes. Again, we identify the limitations of recent approaches. We then propose using a combination of distributional and vanilla reinforcement learning through a policy ensemble. Building upon the state-of-the-art previous model which uses a decentralized approach for large-scale traffic signal control with graph convolutional networks (GCNs), we first learn models using a distributional reinforcement learning (DisRL) approach. In particular, we use implicit quantile networks (IQN) to model the state-action return distribution with quantile regression. For traffic signal control problems, an ensemble of standard RL and DisRL yields superior performance across different scenarios, including different levels of missing sensor data and traffic flow patterns. Furthermore, the learning scheme of the resulting model can improve zero-shot transferability to different road network structures, including both synthetic networks and real-world networks (e.g., Luxembourg, Manhattan). We conduct extensive experiments to compare our approach to multi-agent reinforcement learning and traditional transportation approaches. Results show that the proposed method improves robustness and generalizability in the face of missing data, varying road networks, and traffic flows.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Covariance regression with random forests

Capturing the conditional covariances or correlations among the elements of a multivariate response vector based on covariates is important to various fields including neuroscience, epidemiology and biomedicine. We propose a new method called Covariance Regression with Random Forests (CovRegRF) to estimate the covariance matrix of a multivariate response given a set of covariates, using a random forest framework. Random forest trees are built with a splitting rule specially designed to maximize the difference between the sample covariance matrix estimates of the child nodes. We also propose a significance test for the partial effect of a subset of covariates. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method and significance test through a simulation study which shows that the proposed method provides accurate covariance matrix estimates and that the Type-1 error is well controlled. An application of the proposed method to thyroid disease data is also presented. CovRegRF is implemented in a freely available R package on CRAN.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Model-based graph reinforcement learning for inductive traffic signal control

Most reinforcement learning methods for adaptive-traffic-signal-control require training from scratch to be applied on any new intersection or after any modification to the road network, traffic distribution, or behavioral constraints experienced during training. Considering 1) the massive amount of experience required to train such methods, and 2) that experience must be gathered by interacting in an exploratory fashion with real road-network-users, such a lack of transferability limits experimentation and applicability. Recent approaches enable learning policies that generalize for unseen road-network topologies and traffic distributions, partially tackling this challenge. However, the literature remains divided between the learning of cyclic (the evolution of connectivity at an intersection must respect a cycle) and acyclic (less constrained) policies, and these transferable methods 1) are only compatible with cyclic constraints and 2) do not enable coordination. We introduce a new model-based method, MuJAM, which, on top of enabling explicit coordination at scale for the first time, pushes generalization further by allowing a generalization to the controllers' constraints. In a zero-shot transfer setting involving both road networks and traffic settings never experienced during training, and in a larger transfer experiment involving the control of 3,971 traffic signal controllers in Manhattan, we show that MuJAM, using both cyclic and acyclic constraints, outperforms domain-specific baselines as well as another transferable approach.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

RFpredInterval: An R Package for Prediction Intervals with Random Forests and Boosted Forests

Like many predictive models, random forests provide point predictions for new observations. Besides the point prediction, it is important to quantify the uncertainty in the prediction. Prediction intervals provide information about the reliability of the point predictions. We have developed a comprehensive R package, RFpredInterval, that integrates 16 methods to build prediction intervals with random forests and boosted forests. The set of methods implemented in the package includes a new method to build prediction intervals with boosted forests (PIBF) and 15 method variations to produce prediction intervals with random forests, as proposed by Roy and Larocque (2020). We perform an extensive simulation study and apply real data analyses to compare the performance of the proposed method to ten existing methods for building prediction intervals with random forests. The results show that the proposed method is very competitive and, globally, outperforms competing methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Dynamic estimation with random forests for discrete-time survival data

Time-varying covariates are often available in survival studies and estimation of the hazard function needs to be updated as new information becomes available. In this paper, we investigate several different easy-to-implement ways that random forests can be used for dynamic estimation of the survival or hazard function from discrete-time survival data. The results from a simulation study indicate that all methods can perform well, and that none dominates the others. In general, situations that are more difficult from an estimation point of view (such as weaker signals and less data) favour a global fit, pooling over all time points, while situations that are easier from an estimation point of view (such as stronger signals and more data) favor local fits.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Conditional canonical correlation estimation based on covariates with random forests

Investigating the relationships between two sets of variables helps to understand their interactions and can be done with canonical correlation analysis (CCA). However, the correlation between the two sets can sometimes depend on a third set of covariates, often subject-related ones such as age, gender, or other clinical measures. In this case, applying CCA to the whole population is not optimal and methods to estimate conditional CCA, given the covariates, can be useful. We propose a new method called Random Forest with Canonical Correlation Analysis (RFCCA) to estimate the conditional canonical correlations between two sets of variables given subject-related covariates. The individual trees in the forest are built with a splitting rule specifically designed to partition the data to maximize the canonical correlation heterogeneity between child nodes. We also propose a significance test to detect the global effect of the covariates on the relationship between two sets of variables. The performance of the proposed method and the global significance test is evaluated through simulation studies that show it provides accurate canonical correlation estimations and well-controlled Type-1 error. We also show an application of the proposed method with EEG data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Ensemble methods for survival function estimation with time-varying covariates

Survival data with time-varying covariates are common in practice. If relevant, they can improve on the estimation of survival function. However, the traditional survival forests - conditional inference forest, relative risk forest and random survival forest - have accommodated only time-invariant covariates. We generalize the conditional inference and relative risk forests to allow time-varying covariates. We also propose a general framework for estimation of a survival function in the presence of time-varying covariates. We compare their performance with that of the Cox model and transformation forest, adapted here to accommodate time-varying covariates, through a comprehensive simulation study in which the Kaplan-Meier estimate serves as a benchmark, and performance is compared using the integrated L2 difference between the true and estimated survival functions. In general, the performance of the two proposed forests substantially improves over the Kaplan-Meier estimate. Taking into account all other factors, under the proportional hazard (PH) setting, the best method is always one of the two proposed forests, while under the non-PH setting, it is the adapted transformation forest. K-fold cross-validation is used as an effective tool to choose between the methods in practice.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Predictive inference for travel time on transportation networks

Recent statistical methods fitted on large-scale GPS data can provide accurate estimations of the expected travel time between two points. However, little is known about the distribution of travel time, which is key to decision-making across a number of logistic problems. With sufficient data, single road-segment travel time can be well approximated. The challenge lies in understanding how to aggregate such information over a route to arrive at the route-distribution of travel time. We develop a novel statistical approach to this problem. We show that, under general conditions, without assuming a distribution of speed, travel time {divided by route distance follows a Gaussian distribution with route-invariant population mean and variance. We develop efficient inference methods for such parameters and propose asymptotically tight population prediction intervals for travel time. Using traffic flow information, we further develop a trip-specific Gaussian-based predictive distribution, resulting in tight prediction intervals for short and long trips. Our methods, implemented in an R-package, are illustrated in a real-world case study using mobile GPS data, showing that our trip-specific and population intervals both achieve the 95\% theoretical coverage levels. Compared to alternative approaches, our trip-specific predictive distribution achieves (a) the theoretical coverage at every level of significance, (b) tighter prediction intervals, (c) less predictive bias, and (d) more efficient estimation and prediction procedures. This makes our approach promising for low-latency, large-scale transportation applications.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

IG-RL: Inductive Graph Reinforcement Learning for Massive-Scale Traffic Signal Control

Scaling adaptive traffic-signal control involves dealing with combinatorial state and action spaces. Multi-agent reinforcement learning attempts to address this challenge by distributing control to specialized agents. However, specialization hinders generalization and transferability, and the computational graphs underlying neural-networks architectures -- dominating in the multi-agent setting -- do not offer the flexibility to handle an arbitrary number of entities which changes both between road networks, and over time as vehicles traverse the network. We introduce Inductive Graph Reinforcement Learning (IG-RL) based on graph-convolutional networks which adapts to the structure of any road network, to learn detailed representations of traffic-controllers and their surroundings. Our decentralized approach enables learning of a transferable-adaptive-traffic-signal-control policy. After being trained on an arbitrary set of road networks, our model can generalize to new road networks, traffic distributions, and traffic regimes, with no additional training and a constant number of parameters, enabling greater scalability compared to prior methods. Furthermore, our approach can exploit the granularity of available data by capturing the (dynamic) demand at both the lane and the vehicle levels. The proposed method is tested on both road networks and traffic settings never experienced during training. We compare IG-RL to multi-agent reinforcement learning and domain-specific baselines. In both synthetic road networks and in a larger experiment involving the control of the 3,971 traffic signals of Manhattan, we show that different instantiations of IG-RL outperform baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Nonparametric Analysis of Clustered Multivariate Data

There has been a wide interest to extend univariate and multivariate nonparametric procedures to clustered and hierarchical data. Traditionally, parametric mixed models have been used to account for the correlation structures among the dependent observational units. In this work we extend multivariate nonparametric procedures for one-sample and several samples location problems to clustered data settings. The results are given for a general score function, but with an emphasis on spatial sign and rank methods. Mixed models notation involving design matrices for fixed and random effects is used throughout. The asymptotic variance formulas and limiting distributions of the test statistics under the null hypothesis and under a sequence of alternatives are derived, as well as the limiting distributions for the corresponding estimates. The approach based on a general score function also shows, for example, how $M$-estimates behave with clustered data. Efficiency studies demonstrate practical advantages and disadvantages of the use of spatial sign and rank scores, and their weighted versions. Small sample procedures based on sign change and permutation principles are discussed. Further development of nonparametric methods for cluster correlated data would benefit from the notation already familiar to statisticians working under normality assumptions.

math.ST↗