arXiv subjects

Deniz Erdogmus

Publications and source records attributed to Deniz Erdogmus.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Recursive Deep Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Inferring an adversary's goals from exhibited behavior is crucial for counterplanning and non-cooperative multi-agent systems in domains like cybersecurity, military, and strategy games. Deep Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) methods based on maximum entropy principles show promise in recovering adversaries goals but are typically offline, require large batch sizes with gradient descent, and rely on first-order updates, limiting their applicability in real-time scenarios. We propose an online Recursive Deep Inverse Reinforcement Learning (RDIRL) approach to recover the cost function governing the adversary actions and goals. Specifically, we minimize an upper bound on the standard Guided Cost Learning (GCL) objective using sequential second-order Newton updates, akin to the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), leading to a fast (in terms of convergence) learning algorithm. We demonstrate that RDIRL is able to recover cost and reward functions of expert agents in standard and adversarial benchmark tasks. Experiments on benchmark tasks show that our proposed approach outperforms several leading IRL algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

RTS Smoother-Guided Learning of Physics-Based Neural Differential Models

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to model dynamical systems in physics, biology, neuroscience, and physiology, but in many applications some equations of the dynamics are unknown and only a subset of the state variables are measured. We propose a hybrid neural--physics framework in which the known components of the ODE are kept explicit and the missing components are represented by a neural network. The proposed method consists of two stages where we alternate between state and parameter estimation and iterate until a predetermined criterion is met. Specifically, in the first step, we treat the model parameters as being known and we infer the latent states from the available measurements using a Rauch--Tung--Striebel (RTS) smoother. In the second stage, we treat the smoothed trajectories as being known and use them to estimate the neural networks' parameters through backpropagation. We evaluate the method on benchmark systems spanning linear, nonlinear, and stiff dynamics under partial state observation. Across these settings, the proposed method learns missing ODE components from incomplete measurements while exploiting and retaining interpretable mechanistic structure and improving latent-state reconstruction and long-horizon prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Temporal Point Process Modeling of Aggressive Behavior Onset in Psychiatric Inpatient Youths with Autism

Aggressive behavior, including aggression towards others and self-injury, occurs in up to 80% of children and adolescents with autism, making it a leading cause of behavioral health referrals and a major driver of healthcare costs. Predicting when autistic youth will exhibit aggression can be challenging due to their communication difficulties. Many are minimally verbal or have poor emotional insight. Recent advances in Machine Learning and wearable biosensing demonstrate the ability to predict aggression within a limited future window (typically one to three minutes) in autistic individuals. However, existing works don't estimate aggression onset probability or the expected number of aggression onsets over longer periods, nor do they provide interpretable insights into onset dynamics. To address these limitations, we apply Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) - particularly self-exciting Hawkes processes - to model the timing of aggressive behavior onsets in psychiatric inpatient autistic youth. We benchmark several TPP models by evaluating their goodness-of-fit and predictive metrics. Our results demonstrate that self-exciting TPPs more accurately captures the irregular and clustered nature of aggression onsets, especially compared to traditional Poisson models. These incipient findings suggest that TPPs can provide interpretable, probabilistic forecasts of aggression onset along a time continuum, supporting future clinical decision-making and preemptive intervention.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

SSplain: Sparse and Smooth Explainer for Retinopathy of Prematurity Classification

Neural networks are frequently used in medical diagnosis. However, due to their black-box nature, model explainers are used to help clinicians understand better and trust model outputs. This paper introduces an explainer method for classifying Retinopathy of Prematurity (ROP) from fundus images. Previous methods fail to generate explanations that preserve input image structures such as smoothness and sparsity. We introduce Sparse and Smooth Explainer (SSplain), a method that generates pixel-wise explanations while preserving image structures by enforcing smoothness and sparsity. This results in realistic explanations to enhance the understanding of the given black-box model. To achieve this goal, we define an optimization problem with combinatorial constraints and solve it using the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM). Experimental results show that SSplain outperforms commonly used explainers in terms of both post-hoc accuracy and smoothness analyses. Additionally, SSplain identifies features that are consistent with domain-understandable features that clinicians consider as discriminative factors for ROP. We also show SSplain's generalization by applying it to additional publicly available datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/neu-spiral/SSplain.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Tubular Curvature Filter: Pointwise Curvature Calculation for Tubular Objects in Images

Purpose: Accurate estimation of blood vessel tortuosity from medical images is an extremely important and challenging task. It is particularly relevant in the context of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), where the staging of disease severity and consequent therapeutic approaches are heavily informed by the presence and prominence of vessel tortuosity. Existing methods based on centerline or skeleton curvature fail to capture curvature gradients across a rotating tubular structure, thereby limiting their effectiveness in the case of ROP. Methods: This paper defines local tubular curvature and presents the Tubular Curvature Filter (TCF) method, which locally calculates the acceleration of curve bundles traversing a tubular object parallel to its centerline. This is achieved by examining the directional rate of change in the eigenvectors of the Hessian matrix of a tubular intensity function in space. TCF implicitly calculates the local tubular curvature without the need to explicitly segment or extracting the centerline of the tubular object. Results: Experimental results demonstrate that TCF provides accurate estimates of local curvature at any point inside tubular structures. Results on 2D and 3D images show that TCF discerns curvature differences between the inner and outer sides of curved tubular objects, while centerline-based approaches cannot. Conclusion: Our findings highlight that TCF's ability to discern between the inner and outer sides of curved tubular objects is particularly useful in medical fields that require vasculature curvature analysis from images, especially where vascular structures often have non-uniform diameters, such as in ROP.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2025

Dependency-aware Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Active Learning

Active learning aims to efficiently build a labeled training set by strategically selecting samples to query labels from annotators. In this sequential process, each sample acquisition influences subsequent selections, causing dependencies among samples in the labeled set. However, these dependencies are overlooked during the model parameter estimation stage when updating the model using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), a conventional method that assumes independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. We propose Dependency-aware MLE (DMLE), which corrects MLE within the active learning framework by addressing sample dependencies typically neglected due to the i.i.d. assumption, ensuring consistency with active learning principles in the model parameter estimation process. This improved method achieves superior performance across multiple benchmark datasets, reaching higher performance in earlier cycles compared to conventional MLE. Specifically, we observe average accuracy improvements of 6%, 8.6%, and 10.5% for k=1, k=5, and k=10 respectively, after collecting the first 100 samples, where entropy is the acquisition function and k is the query batch size acquired at every active learning cycle. Our implementation is publicly available at: https://github.com/neu-spiral/DMLEforAL

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Hierarchical Temporal Point Process Modeling of Aggressive Behavior Onset in Psychiatric Inpatient Youth with Autism for Branching Factor Estimation

Aggressive behavior in autistic inpatient youth often arises in temporally clustered bursts complicating efforts to distinguish external triggers from internal escalation. The sample population branching factor-the expected number of new onsets triggered by a given event-is a key summary of self-excitation in behavior dynamics. Prior pooled models overestimate this quantity by ignoring patient-specific variability. We addressed this using a hierarchical Hawkes process with an exponential kernel and edge-effect correction allowing partial pooling across patients. This approach reduces bias from high-frequency individuals and stabilizes estimates for those with sparse data. Bayesian inference was performed using the No U-Turn Sampler with model evaluation via convergence diagnostics, power-scaling sensitivity analysis, and multiple Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) metrics: PSIS-LOO the Lewis test with Durbin's modification and residual analysis based on the Random Time Change Theorem (RTCT). The hierarchical model yielded a significantly lower and more precise branching factor estimate mean (0.742 +- 0.026) than the pooled model (0.899 +- 0.015) and narrower intervals than the unpooled model (0.717 +- 0.139). This led to a threefold smaller cascade of events per onset under the hierarchical model. Sensitivity analyses confirmed robustness to prior and likelihood perturbations while the unpooled model showed instability for sparse individuals. GOF measures consistently favored or on par to the hierarchical model. Hierarchical Hawkes modeling with edge-effect correction provides robust estimation of branching dynamics by capturing both within- and between-patient variability. This enables clearer separation of endogenous from exogenous events supports linkage to physiological signals and enhances early warning systems individualized treatment and resource allocation in inpatient care.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Exploring Theory-Laden Observations in the Brain Basis of Emotional Experience

In the science of emotion, it is widely assumed that folk emotion categories form a biological and psychological typology, and studies are routinely designed and analyzed to identify emotion-specific patterns. This approach shapes the observations that studies report, ultimately reinforcing the assumption that guided the investigation. Here, we reanalyzed data from one such typologically-guided study that reported mappings between individual brain patterns and group-averaged ratings of 34 emotion categories. Our reanalysis was guided by an alternative view of emotion categories as populations of variable, situated instances, and which predicts a priori that there will be significant variation in brain patterns within a category across instances. Correspondingly, our analysis made minimal assumptions about the structure of the variance present in the data. As predicted, we did not observe the original mappings and instead observed significant variation across individuals. These findings demonstrate how starting assumptions can ultimately impact scientific conclusions and suggest that a hypothesis must be supported using multiple analytic methods before it is taken seriously.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Continuously Optimizing Radar Placement with Model Predictive Path Integrals

Continuously optimizing sensor placement is essential for precise target localization in various military and civilian applications. While information theory has shown promise in optimizing sensor placement, many studies oversimplify sensor measurement models or neglect dynamic constraints of mobile sensors. To address these challenges, we employ a range measurement model that incorporates radar parameters and radar-target distance, coupled with Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) control to manage complex environmental obstacles and dynamic constraints. We compare the proposed approach against stationary radars or simplified range measurement models based on the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the Cubature Kalman Filter (CKF) estimator for the targets' state. Additionally, we visualize the evolving geometry of radars and targets over time, highlighting areas of highest measurement information gain, demonstrating the strengths of the approach. The proposed strategy outperforms stationary radars and simplified range measurement models in target localization, achieving a 38-74% reduction in mean RMSE and a 33-79% reduction in the upper tail of the 90% Highest Density Interval (HDI) over 500 Monte Carl (MC) trials across all time steps. Code will be made publicly available upon acceptance.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

MarkovType: A Markov Decision Process Strategy for Non-Invasive Brain-Computer Interfaces Typing Systems

Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) help people with severe speech and motor disabilities communicate and interact with their environment using neural activity. This work focuses on the Rapid Serial Visual Presentation (RSVP) paradigm of BCIs using noninvasive electroencephalography (EEG). The RSVP typing task is a recursive task with multiple sequences, where users see only a subset of symbols in each sequence. Extensive research has been conducted to improve classification in the RSVP typing task, achieving fast classification. However, these methods struggle to achieve high accuracy and do not consider the typing mechanism in the learning procedure. They apply binary target and non-target classification without including recursive training. To improve performance in the classification of symbols while controlling the classification speed, we incorporate the typing setup into training by proposing a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) approach. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to formulate the RSVP typing task as a POMDP for recursive classification. Experiments show that the proposed approach, MarkovType, results in a more accurate typing system compared to competitors. Additionally, our experiments demonstrate that while there is a trade-off between accuracy and speed, MarkovType achieves the optimal balance between these factors compared to other methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Learning Physics Informed Neural ODEs With Partial Measurements

Learning dynamics governing physical and spatiotemporal processes is a challenging problem, especially in scenarios where states are partially measured. In this work, we tackle the problem of learning dynamics governing these systems when parts of the system's states are not measured, specifically when the dynamics generating the non-measured states are unknown. Inspired by state estimation theory and Physics Informed Neural ODEs, we present a sequential optimization framework in which dynamics governing unmeasured processes can be learned. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach leveraging numerical simulations and a real dataset extracted from an electro-mechanical positioning system. We show how the underlying equations fit into our formalism and demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed method when compared with baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

KODA: A Data-Driven Recursive Model for Time Series Forecasting and Data Assimilation using Koopman Operators

Approaches based on Koopman operators have shown great promise in forecasting time series data generated by complex nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS). Although such approaches are able to capture the latent state representation of a NLDS, they still face difficulty in long term forecasting when applied to real world data. Specifically many real-world NLDS exhibit time-varying behavior, leading to nonstationarity that is hard to capture with such models. Furthermore they lack a systematic data-driven approach to perform data assimilation, that is, exploiting noisy measurements on the fly in the forecasting task. To alleviate the above issues, we propose a Koopman operator-based approach (named KODA - Koopman Operator with Data Assimilation) that integrates forecasting and data assimilation in NLDS. In particular we use a Fourier domain filter to disentangle the data into a physical component whose dynamics can be accurately represented by a Koopman operator, and residual dynamics that represents the local or time varying behavior that are captured by a flexible and learnable recursive model. We carefully design an architecture and training criterion that ensures this decomposition lead to stable and long-term forecasts. Moreover, we introduce a course correction strategy to perform data assimilation with new measurements at inference time. The proposed approach is completely data-driven and can be learned end-to-end. Through extensive experimental comparisons we show that KODA outperforms existing state of the art methods on multiple time series benchmarks such as electricity, temperature, weather, lorenz 63 and duffing oscillator demonstrating its superior performance and efficacy along the three tasks a) forecasting, b) data assimilation and c) state prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Fast and Robust State Estimation and Tracking via Hierarchical Learning

Fast and reliable state estimation and tracking are essential for real-time situation awareness in Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) operating in tactical environments or complicated civilian environments. Traditional centralized solutions do not scale well whereas existing fully distributed solutions over large networks suffer slow convergence, and are vulnerable to a wide spectrum of communication failures. In this paper, we aim to speed up the convergence and enhance the resilience of state estimation and tracking for large-scale networks using a simple hierarchical system architecture. We propose two ``consensus + innovation'' algorithms, both of which rely on a novel hierarchical push-sum consensus component. We characterize their convergence rates under a linear local observation model and minimal technical assumptions. We numerically validate our algorithms through simulation studies of underwater acoustic networks and large-scale synthetic networks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Recursive classification of satellite imaging time-series: An application to land cover mapping

Despite the extensive body of literature focused on remote sensing applications for land cover mapping and the availability of high-resolution satellite imagery, methods for continuously updating classification maps in real-time remain limited, especially when training data is scarce. This paper introduces the Recursive Bayesian Classifier (RBC), which converts any instantaneous classifier into a robust online method through a probabilistic framework that is resilient to non-informative image variations. Three experiments are conducted using Sentinel-2 data: water mapping of the Oroville Dam in California and the Charles River basin in Massachusetts, and deforestation detection in the Amazon. RBC is applied to a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), Logistic Regression (LR), and our proposed Spectral Index Classifier (SIC). Results show that RBC significantly enhances classifier robustness in multitemporal settings under challenging conditions, such as cloud cover and cyanobacterial blooms. Specifically, balanced classification accuracy improves by up to 26.95% for SIC, 12.4% for GMM, and 13.81% for LR in water mapping, and by 15.25%, 14.17%, and 14.7% in deforestation detection. Moreover, without additional training data, RBC improves the performance of the state-of-the-art DeepWaterMap and WatNet algorithms by up to 9.62% and 11.03%. These benefits are provided by RBC while requiring minimal supervision and maintaining a low computational cost that remains constant for each time step regardless of the time-series length.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2024

Multistatic-Radar RCS-Signature Recognition of Aerial Vehicles: A Bayesian Fusion Approach

Radar Automated Target Recognition (RATR) for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) involves transmitting Electromagnetic Waves (EMWs) and performing target type recognition on the received radar echo, crucial for defense and aerospace applications. Previous studies highlighted the advantages of multistatic radar configurations over monostatic ones in RATR. However, fusion methods in multistatic radar configurations often suboptimally combine classification vectors from individual radars probabilistically. To address this, we propose a fully Bayesian RATR framework employing Optimal Bayesian Fusion (OBF) to aggregate classification probability vectors from multiple radars. OBF, based on expected 0-1 loss, updates a Recursive Bayesian Classification (RBC) posterior distribution for target UAV type, conditioned on historical observations across multiple time steps. We evaluate the approach using simulated random walk trajectories for seven drones, correlating target aspect angles to Radar Cross Section (RCS) measurements in an anechoic chamber. Comparing against single radar Automated Target Recognition (ATR) systems and suboptimal fusion methods, our empirical results demonstrate that the OBF method integrated with RBC significantly enhances classification accuracy compared to other fusion methods and single radar configurations.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2024

Learning Semilinear Neural Operators : A Unified Recursive Framework For Prediction And Data Assimilation

Recent advances in the theory of Neural Operators (NOs) have enabled fast and accurate computation of the solutions to complex systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their great success, current NO-based solutions face important challenges when dealing with spatio-temporal PDEs over long time scales. Specifically, the current theory of NOs does not present a systematic framework to perform data assimilation and efficiently correct the evolution of PDE solutions over time based on sparsely sampled noisy measurements. In this paper, we propose a learning-based state-space approach to compute the solution operators to infinite-dimensional semilinear PDEs. Exploiting the structure of semilinear PDEs and the theory of nonlinear observers in function spaces, we develop a flexible recursive method that allows for both prediction and data assimilation by combining prediction and correction operations. The proposed framework is capable of producing fast and accurate predictions over long time horizons, dealing with irregularly sampled noisy measurements to correct the solution, and benefits from the decoupling between the spatial and temporal dynamics of this class of PDEs. We show through experiments on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes and Korteweg-de Vries equations that the proposed model is robust to noise and can leverage arbitrary amounts of measurements to correct its prediction over a long time horizon with little computational overhead.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Multimodal Fusion of EMG and Vision for Human Grasp Intent Inference in Prosthetic Hand Control

Objective: For transradial amputees, robotic prosthetic hands promise to regain the capability to perform daily living activities. Current control methods based on physiological signals such as electromyography (EMG) are prone to yielding poor inference outcomes due to motion artifacts, muscle fatigue, and many more. Vision sensors are a major source of information about the environment state and can play a vital role in inferring feasible and intended gestures. However, visual evidence is also susceptible to its own artifacts, most often due to object occlusion, lighting changes, etc. Multimodal evidence fusion using physiological and vision sensor measurements is a natural approach due to the complementary strengths of these modalities. Methods: In this paper, we present a Bayesian evidence fusion framework for grasp intent inference using eye-view video, eye-gaze, and EMG from the forearm processed by neural network models. We analyze individual and fused performance as a function of time as the hand approaches the object to grasp it. For this purpose, we have also developed novel data processing and augmentation techniques to train neural network components. Results: Our results indicate that, on average, fusion improves the instantaneous upcoming grasp type classification accuracy while in the reaching phase by 13.66% and 14.8%, relative to EMG (81.64% non-fused) and visual evidence (80.5% non-fused) individually, resulting in an overall fusion accuracy of 95.3%. Conclusion: Our experimental data analyses demonstrate that EMG and visual evidence show complementary strengths, and as a consequence, fusion of multimodal evidence can outperform each individual evidence modality at any given time.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2023

Fast and Expressive Gesture Recognition using a Combination-Homomorphic Electromyogram Encoder

We study the task of gesture recognition from electromyography (EMG), with the goal of enabling expressive human-computer interaction at high accuracy, while minimizing the time required for new subjects to provide calibration data. To fulfill these goals, we define combination gestures consisting of a direction component and a modifier component. New subjects only demonstrate the single component gestures and we seek to extrapolate from these to all possible single or combination gestures. We extrapolate to unseen combination gestures by combining the feature vectors of real single gestures to produce synthetic training data. This strategy allows us to provide a large and flexible gesture vocabulary, while not requiring new subjects to demonstrate combinatorially many example gestures. We pre-train an encoder and a combination operator using self-supervision, so that we can produce useful synthetic training data for unseen test subjects. To evaluate the proposed method, we collect a real-world EMG dataset, and measure the effect of augmented supervision against two baselines: a partially-supervised model trained with only single gesture data from the unseen subject, and a fully-supervised model trained with real single and real combination gesture data from the unseen subject. We find that the proposed method provides a dramatic improvement over the partially-supervised model, and achieves a useful classification accuracy that in some cases approaches the performance of the fully-supervised model.

cs.HC↗