arXiv subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Denny M. Oliveira.
Editorial for the Research Topic collection Impacts of the Extreme Gannon Geomagnetic Storm of May 2024 throughout the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere System, published in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Science.
The exponential increase of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites in the past 5 years has brought into intense focus the need for reliable monitoring and reentry prediction to safeguard from space collisions and ground debris impacts. However, LEO satellites fly within the upper atmosphere region that exerts significant drag forces to their orbits, reducing their lifetimes, and increasing collision risks during dynamic events, like geomagnetic storms. Such conditions can become more severe during geomagnetic storms, particularly during extreme events. In this work, we use two-line element (TLE) satellite tracking data to investigate geomagnetic activity effects on the reentries of 523 Starlink satellites from 2020 to 2024. This period coincides with the rising phase of solar cycle 25, which has shown itself to be more intense than the previous solar cycle. We derive satellite altitudes and velocities from TLE files and perform a superposed epoch analysis, the first with hundreds of similar satellites. Even with limitedly accurate TLE data, our results indisputably show that satellites reenter faster with higher geomagnetic activity. This is explained by the fastest orbital decay rates (in km/day) of the satellites caused by increased drag forces. We also find that prediction errors, defined as the difference between the epochs of actual reentries and predicted reentries at reference altitudes, increase with geomagnetic activity. As a result, we clearly show that the intense solar activity of the current solar cycle has already had significant impacts on Starlink reentries. This is a very exciting time in satellite orbital drag research, since the number of satellites in LEO and solar activity are the highest ever observed in human history.
In this short communication, we qualitatively analyze possible effects of the 10 October 2024 geomagnetic storm on accelerating the reentry of a Starlink satellite from very low-Earth orbit (VLEO). The storm took place near the maximum of solar cycle (SC) 25, which has shown to be more intense than SC24. Based on preliminary geomagnetic indices, the 10 October 2024, along with the 10 May 2024, were the most intense events since the well-known Halloween storms of October/November 2003. By looking at a preliminary version of the Dst index and altitudes along with velocities extracted from two-line element (TLE) data of the Starlink-1089 (SL-1089) satellite, we observe a possible connection between storm main phase onset and a sharp decay of SL-1089. The satellite was predicted to reenter on 22 October, but it reentered on 12 October, 10 days before schedule. The sharp altitude decay of SL-1089 revealed by TLE data coincides with the storm main phase onset. We compare the de-orbiting altitudes of another three satellites during different geomagnetic conditions and observe that the day difference between actual and predicted reentries increases for periods with higher geomagnetic activity. Therefore, we call for future research to establish the eventual causal relationship between storm occurrence and satellite orbital decay. As predicted by previous works, SC25 is already producing extreme geomagnetic storms with unprecedented satellite orbital drag effects and consequences for current megaconstellations in VLEO.
In May 2024, the scientific community observed intense solar eruptions that resulted in a great geomagnetic storm and auroral extension, highlighting the need to document and quantify these events. This study mainly focuses on their quantification. The source active region (AR 13664) evolved from 113 to 2761 millionths of the solar hemisphere between 4 May and 14 May. AR 13664's magnetic free energy surpassed 10^33 erg on 7 May, triggering 12 X-class flares on 8 -- 15 May. Multiple interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) were produced from this AR, accelerating solar energetic particles toward Earth. According to satellite and interplanetary scintillation data, at least 4 ICMEs erupted from 13664 eventually overcoming each other and combining. The shock arrival at 17:05 UT on 10 May significantly compressed the magnetosphere down to ~ 5.04 RE, and triggered a deep Forbush Decrease. GOES satellite data and ground-based neutron monitors confirmed a ground-level enhancement from 2 UT to 10 UT on 11 May 2024. The ICMEs induced exceptional geomagnetic storms, peaking at a Dst index of -412 nT at 2 UT on 11 May, marking the sixth-largest storm since 1957. The AE and AL indices showed great auroral extensions that located the AE/AL stations into the polar cap. We gathered auroral records at that time and reconstructed the equatorward boundary of the visual auroral oval to 29.8° invariant latitude. We compared naked-eye and camera auroral visibility, providing critical caveats on their difference. We also confirmed global enhancements of storm-enhanced density of the ionosphere.
The impact of interplanetary (IP) shocks on the Earth's magnetosphere can greatly disturb the geomagnetic field and electric currents in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. At high latitudes, the current systems most affected by the shocks are the auroral electrojet currents. These currents then generate ground geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) that couple with and are highly detrimental to ground artificial conductors including power transmission lines, oil/gas pipelines, railways, and submarine cables. Recent research has shown that the shock impact angle, the angle the shock normal vector performs with the Sun-Earth line, plays a major role in controlling the subsequent geomagnetic activity. More specifically, due to more symmetric magnetospheric compressions, nearly frontal shocks are usually more geoeffective than highly inclined shocks. In this study, we utilize a subset (332 events) of a shock list with more than 600 events to investigate, for the first time, shock impact angle effects on the subsequent GICs right after shock impact (compression effects) and several minutes after shock impact (substorm-like effects). We use GIC recordings from the Finnish natural gas pipeline performed near the Mäntsälä compression station in southern Finland. We find that GIC peaks (> 5 A) occurring after shock impacts are mostly caused by nearly frontal shocks and occur in the post-noon/dusk magnetic local time sector. These GIC peaks are presumably triggered by partial ring current intensifications in the dusk sector. On the other hand, more intense GIC peaks (> 20 A) generally occur several minutes after shock impacts and are located around the magnetic midnight terminator. These GIC peaks are most likely caused by intense energetic particle injections from the magnetotail which frequently occur during substorms.
In this manuscript, I provide an updated interplanetary shock data base I published in previous works. This list has now 603 events. I also present and describe the data and methodologies used to compile this list. The main contribution of this work is to provide an updated end accurate interplanetary shock data base for future space physics and space weather investigations. The list has been uploaded to Zenodo, and a link is provided for accessing the data files. As for Frontiers requirements, the access of the list has kept to be restricted during the review process. The list will be made public if/when the manuscript is published.
Interplanetary (IP) shocks are disturbances commonly observed in the solar wind. IP shock impacts can cause a myriad of space weather effects in the Earth's magnetopause, inner magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere, and ground magnetic field. The shock impact angle, measured as the angle the shock normal vector performs with the Sun-Earth line, has been shown to be a very important parameter that controls shock geoeffectivess. An extensive review provided by Oliveira and Samsonov (2018) summarized all the work known at the time with respect to shock impact angles and geomagnetic activity; however, this topic has had some progress since Oliveira and Samsonov (2018) and the main goal of this mini review is to summarize all achievements to date in the topic to the knowledge of the author. Finally, this mini review also brings a few suggestions and ideas for future research in the area of IP shock impact angle geoeffectiveness.
The impact of interplanetary shocks on the magnetosphere can trigger magnetic substorms that intensify auroral electrojet currents. These currents enhance ground magnetic field perturbations (d$B$/d$t$), which in turn generate geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) that can be detrimental to power transmission infrastructure. We perform a comparative study of d$B$/d$t$ variations in response to two similarly strong shocks, but with one being nearly frontal, and the other, highly inclined. Multi-instrument analyses by the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) and Los Alamos National Laboratory spacecraft show that nightside substorm-time energetic particle injections are more intense and occur faster in the case of the nearly head-on impact. The same trend is observed in d$B$/d$t$ variations recorded by THEMIS ground magnetometers. THEMIS all-sky imager data show a fast and clear poleward auroral expansion in the first case, which does not clearly occur in the second case. Strong field-aligned currents computed with the spherical elementary current system (SECS) technique occur in both cases, but the current variations resulting from the inclined shock impact are weaker and slower compared to the nearly frontal case. SECS analyses also reveal that geographic areas with d$B$/d$t$ surpassing the thresholds 1.5 and 5 nT/s, usually linked to high-risk GICs, are larger and occur earlier due to the symmetric compression caused by the nearly head-on impact. These results, with profound space weather implications, suggest that shock impact angles affect the geospace driving conditions and the location and intensity of the subsequent d$B$/d$t$ variations during substorm activity.
Satellites, crewed spacecraft and stations in low-Earth orbit (LEO) are very sensitive to atmospheric drag. A satellite's lifetime and orbital tracking become increasingly inaccurate or uncertain during magnetic storms. Given the planned increase of government and private satellite presence in LEO, the need for accurate density predictions for collision avoidance and lifetime optimization, particularly during extreme events, has become an urgent matter and requires comprehensive international collaboration. Additionally, long-term solar activity models and historical data suggest that solar activity will significantly increase in the following years and decades. In this article, we briefly summarize the main achievements in the research of thermosphere response to extreme magnetic storms occurring particularly after the launching of many satellites with state-of-the-art accelerometers from which high-accuracy density can be determined. We find that the performance of an empirical model with data assimilation is higher than its performance without data assimilation during all extreme storm phases. We discuss how forecasting models can be improved by looking into two directions: first, to the past, by adapting historical extreme storm datasets for density predictions, and second, to the future, by facilitating the assimilation of large-scale thermosphere data sets that will be collected in future events. Therefore, this topic is relevant to the scientific community, government agencies that operate satellites, and the private sector with assets operating in LEO.
Fast reverse shocks (FRSs) cause the magnetosphere to expand, by contrast to the well-known compressions caused by the impact of fast forward shocks (FFS). Usually, FFSs are more geoeffective than FRSs, and consequently, the inner magnetosphere dynamic responses to both shock types can be quite different. In this study, we investigate for the first time the radiation belt response to an FRS impact using multi-satellite observations and numerical simulations. Spacecraft on the dayside observed decreases in magnetic field strength and energetic (~ 40-475 keV) particle fluxes. Timing analysis shows that the magnetic field signature propagated from the dayside to the nightside magnetosphere. Particles with different energies vary simultaneously at each spacecraft, implying a non-dispersive particle response to the shock. Spacecraft located at lower L-shells did not record any significant signatures. The observations indicate a local time dependence of the response associated with the shock inclination, with the clearest signatures being observed in the dusk-midnight sector. Simulations underestimate the amplitude of the magnetic field variations observed on the nightside. The observed decreases in the electron intensities result from a combination of radial gradient and adiabatic effects. The radial gradients in the spectral index appear to be the dominant contributor to the observed variations of electrons seen on the dayside (near noon and dusk) and on the nightside (near midnight). This study shows that even an FRS can affect the radiation belts significantly and provides an opportunity to understand their dynamic response to a sudden expansion of the magnetosphere.
Given the infrequency of extreme geomagnetic storms, it is significant to note the concentration of three extreme geomagnetic storms in 1941, whose intensities ranked fourth, twelfth, and fifth within the aa index between 1868-2010. Among them, the geomagnetic storm on 1 March 1941 was so intense that three of the four Dst station magnetograms went off scale. Herein, we reconstruct its time series and measure the storm intensity with an alternative Dst estimate (Dst*). The source solar eruption at 09:29 - 09:38 GMT on 28 February was located at RGO AR 13814 and its significant intensity is confirmed by large magnetic crochets of 35 nT measured at Abinger. This solar eruption most likely released a fast interplanetary coronal mass ejection with estimated speed 2260 km/s. After its impact at 03:57 - 03:59 GMT on 1 March, an extreme magnetic storm was recorded worldwide. Comparative analyses on the contemporary magnetograms show the storm peak intensity of minimum Dst* < -464 nT at 16 GMT, comparable to the most and the second most extreme magnetic storms within the standard Dst index since 1957. This storm triggered significant low-latitude aurorae in the East Asian sector and their equatorward boundary has been reconstructed as 38.5° in invariant latitude. This result agrees with British magnetograms which indicate auroral oval moving above Abinger at 53.0° in magnetic latitude. The storm amplitude was even more enhanced in equatorial stations and consequently casts caveats on their usage for measurements of the storm intensity in Dst estimates.
Understanding extreme space weather events is of paramount importance in efforts to protect technological systems in space and on the ground. Particularly in the thermosphere, the subsequent extreme magnetic storms can pose serious threats to low-Earth orbit (LEO) spacecraft by intensifying errors in orbit predictions. Extreme magnetic storms (minimum Dst $\leq$ --250 nT) are extremely rare: only 7 events occurred during the era of spacecraft with high-level accelerometers such as CHAMP (CHAllenge Mini-satellite Payload) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate experiment), and none with minimum Dst $\leq$ --500 nT, here termed magnetic superstorms. Therefore, current knowledge of thermospheric mass density response to superstorms is very limited. Thus, in order to advance this knowledge, four known magnetic superstorms in history, i.e., events occurring before CHAMP's and GRACE's commission times, with complete datasets, are used to empirically estimate density enhancements and subsequent orbital drag. The November 2003 magnetic storm (minimum Dst = --422 nT), the most extreme event observed by both satellites, is used as the benchmark event. Results show that, as expected, orbital degradation is more severe for the most intense storms. Additionally, results clearly point out that the time duration of the storm is strongly associated with storm-time orbital drag effects, being as important as or even more important than storm intensity itself. The most extreme storm-time decays during CHAMP/GRACE-like sample satellite orbits estimated for the March 1989 magnetic superstorm show that long-lasting superstorms can have highly detrimental consequences for the orbital dynamics of satellites in LEO.
Being footprints of major magnetic storms and hence major solar eruptions, mid- to low-latitude aurorae have been one of the pathways to understand solar-terrestrial environments. However, it has been reported that aurorae are also occasionally observed at low latitudes under low or even quiet magnetic conditions. Such phenomena are known as "sporadic aurorae". We report on a historical event observed by a scientist of the Brazilian Empire in Rio de Janeiro on 15 February 1875. We analyze this event on the basis of its spectroscopic observations, along with its visual structure and coloration, to suggest this event was a possible case of sporadic aurorae. Given the absence of worldwide aurora observations on that day as a consequence of low magnetic activity recorded on the days preceding the observation, in addition to a detailed description, the event observed can most likely be classified as a sporadic aurora. We discuss the geographic and magnetic conditions of that event. Thus, we add a possible case of sporadic aurora in the South American sector.
While the Sun is generally more eruptive during its maximum and declining phases, observational evidence shows certain cases of powerful solar eruptions during the quiet phase of the solar activity. Occurring in the weak Solar Cycle 14 just after its minimum, the extreme space weather event in 1903 October -- November was one of these cases. Here, we reconstruct the time series of geomagnetic activity based on contemporary observational records. With the mid-latitude magnetograms, the 1903 magnetic storm is thought to be caused by a fast coronal mass ejection (~1500 km/s) and is regarded as an intense event with an estimated minimum Dst' of ~-513 nT The reconstructed time series has been compared with the equatorward extension of auroral oval (~44.1° in invariant latitude) and the time series of telegraphic disturbances. This case study shows that potential threats posed by extreme space weather events exist even during weak solar cycles or near their minima.
We investigate satellite orbital drag effects at low-Earth orbit (LEO) associated with thermosphere heating during magnetic storms caused by coronal mass ejections. CHAllenge Mini-satellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) neutral density data are used to compute orbital drag. Storm-to-quiet density comparisons are performed with background densities obtained by the Jacchia-Bowman 2008 (JB2008) empirical model. Our storms are grouped in different categories regarding their intensities as indicated by minimum values of the SYM-H index. We then perform superposed epoch analyses with storm main phase onset as zero epoch time. In general, we find that orbital drag effects are larger for CHAMP (lower altitudes) in comparison to GRACE (higher altitudes). Results show that storm-time drag effects manifest first at high latitudes, but for extreme storms particularly observed by GRACE stronger orbital drag effects occur during early main phase at low/equatorial latitudes, probably due to heating propagation from high latitudes. We find that storm-time orbital decay along the satellites' path generally increases with storm intensity, being stronger and faster for the most extreme events. For these events, orbital drag effects decrease faster probably due to elevated cooling effects caused by nitric oxide, which introduce modeled density uncertainties during storm recovery phase. Errors associated with total orbit decay introduced by JB2008 are generally the largest for the strongest storms, and increase during storm times, particular during recovery phases. We discuss the implication of these uncertainties for the prediction of collision between space objects at LEO during magnetic storms.
The Carrington event is considered to be one of the most extreme space weather events in observational history within a series of magnetic storms caused by extreme interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from a large and complex active region (AR) emerged on the solar disk. In this article, we study the temporal and spatial evolutions of the source sunspot active region and visual aurorae, and compare this storm with other extreme space weather events on the basis of their spatial evolution. Sunspot drawings by Schwabe, Secchi, and Carrington describe the position and morphology of the source AR at that time. Visual auroral reports from the Russian Empire, Iberia, Ireland, Oceania, and Japan fill the spatial gap of auroral visibility and revise the time series of auroral visibility in mid to low magnetic latitudes (MLATs). The reconstructed time series is compared with magnetic measurements and shows the correspondence between low to mid latitude aurorae and the phase of magnetic storms. The spatial evolution of the auroral oval is compared with those of other extreme space weather events in 1872, 1909, 1921, and 1989 as well as their storm intensity, and contextualizes the Carrington event, as one of the most extreme space weather events, but likely not unique.