arXiv subjects

Dhanya Sridhar

Publications and source records attributed to Dhanya Sridhar.

29 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Estimating Social Influence from Observational Data

We consider the problem of estimating social influence, the effect that a person's behavior has on the future behavior of their peers. The key challenge is that shared behavior between friends could be equally explained by influence or by two other confounding factors: 1) latent traits that caused people to both become friends and engage in the behavior, and 2) latent preferences for the behavior. This paper addresses the challenges of estimating social influence with three contributions. First, we formalize social influence as a causal effect, one which requires inferences about hypothetical interventions. Second, we develop Poisson Influence Factorization (PIF), a method for estimating social influence from observational data. PIF fits probabilistic factor models to networks and behavior data to infer variables that serve as substitutes for the confounding latent traits. Third, we develop assumptions under which PIF recovers estimates of social influence. We empirically study PIF with semi-synthetic and real data from Last.fm, and conduct a sensitivity analysis. We find that PIF estimates social influence most accurately compared to related methods and remains robust under some violations of its assumptions.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Identifiable Deep Generative Models via Sparse Decoding

We develop the sparse VAE for unsupervised representation learning on high-dimensional data. The sparse VAE learns a set of latent factors (representations) which summarize the associations in the observed data features. The underlying model is sparse in that each observed feature (i.e. each dimension of the data) depends on a small subset of the latent factors. As examples, in ratings data each movie is only described by a few genres; in text data each word is only applicable to a few topics; in genomics, each gene is active in only a few biological processes. We prove such sparse deep generative models are identifiable: with infinite data, the true model parameters can be learned. (In contrast, most deep generative models are not identifiable.) We empirically study the sparse VAE with both simulated and real data. We find that it recovers meaningful latent factors and has smaller heldout reconstruction error than related methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

On the Assumptions of Synthetic Control Methods

Synthetic control (SC) methods have been widely applied to estimate the causal effect of large-scale interventions, e.g., the state-wide effect of a change in policy. The idea of synthetic controls is to approximate one unit's counterfactual outcomes using a weighted combination of some other units' observed outcomes. The motivating question of this paper is: how does the SC strategy lead to valid causal inferences? We address this question by re-formulating the causal inference problem targeted by SC with a more fine-grained model, where we change the unit of the analysis from "large units" (e.g., states) to "small units" (e.g., individuals in states). Under this re-formulation, we derive sufficient conditions for the non-parametric causal identification of the causal effect. We highlight two implications of the reformulation: (1) it clarifies where "linearity" comes from, and how it falls naturally out of the more fine-grained and flexible model, and (2) it suggests new ways of using available data with SC methods for valid causal inference, in particular, new ways of selecting observations from which to estimate the counterfactual.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Causal Effects of Linguistic Properties

We consider the problem of using observational data to estimate the causal effects of linguistic properties. For example, does writing a complaint politely lead to a faster response time? How much will a positive product review increase sales? This paper addresses two technical challenges related to the problem before developing a practical method. First, we formalize the causal quantity of interest as the effect of a writer's intent, and establish the assumptions necessary to identify this from observational data. Second, in practice, we only have access to noisy proxies for the linguistic properties of interest -- e.g., predictions from classifiers and lexicons. We propose an estimator for this setting and prove that its bias is bounded when we perform an adjustment for the text. Based on these results, we introduce TextCause, an algorithm for estimating causal effects of linguistic properties. The method leverages (1) distant supervision to improve the quality of noisy proxies, and (2) a pre-trained language model (BERT) to adjust for the text. We show that the proposed method outperforms related approaches when estimating the effect of Amazon review sentiment on semi-simulated sales figures. Finally, we present an applied case study investigating the effects of complaint politeness on bureaucratic response times.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2020

Adapting Text Embeddings for Causal Inference

Does adding a theorem to a paper affect its chance of acceptance? Does labeling a post with the author's gender affect the post popularity? This paper develops a method to estimate such causal effects from observational text data, adjusting for confounding features of the text such as the subject or writing quality. We assume that the text suffices for causal adjustment but that, in practice, it is prohibitively high-dimensional. To address this challenge, we develop causally sufficient embeddings, low-dimensional document representations that preserve sufficient information for causal identification and allow for efficient estimation of causal effects. Causally sufficient embeddings combine two ideas. The first is supervised dimensionality reduction: causal adjustment requires only the aspects of text that are predictive of both the treatment and outcome. The second is efficient language modeling: representations of text are designed to dispose of linguistically irrelevant information, and this information is also causally irrelevant. Our method adapts language models (specifically, word embeddings and topic models) to learn document embeddings that are able to predict both treatment and outcome. We study causally sufficient embeddings with semi-synthetic datasets and find that they improve causal estimation over related embedding methods. We illustrate the methods by answering the two motivating questions---the effect of a theorem on paper acceptance and the effect of a gender label on post popularity. Code and data available at https://github.com/vveitch/causal-text-embeddings-tf2}{github.com/vveitch/causal-text-embeddings-tf2

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Valid Causal Inference with (Some) Invalid Instruments

Instrumental variable methods provide a powerful approach to estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. But a key challenge when applying them is the reliance on untestable "exclusion" assumptions that rule out any relationship between the instrument variable and the response that is not mediated by the treatment. In this paper, we show how to perform consistent IV estimation despite violations of the exclusion assumption. In particular, we show that when one has multiple candidate instruments, only a majority of these candidates---or, more generally, the modal candidate-response relationship---needs to be valid to estimate the causal effect. Our approach uses an estimate of the modal prediction from an ensemble of instrumental variable estimators. The technique is simple to apply and is "black-box" in the sense that it may be used with any instrumental variable estimator as long as the treatment effect is identified for each valid instrument independently. As such, it is compatible with recent machine-learning based estimators that allow for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATE) on complex, high dimensional data. Experimentally, we achieve accurate estimates of conditional average treatment effects using an ensemble of deep network-based estimators, including on a challenging simulated Mendelian Randomization problem.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Estimating Causal Effects of Tone in Online Debates

Statistical methods applied to social media posts shed light on the dynamics of online dialogue. For example, users' wording choices predict their persuasiveness and users adopt the language patterns of other dialogue participants. In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of reply tones in debates on linguistic and sentiment changes in subsequent responses. The challenge for this estimation is that a reply's tone and subsequent responses are confounded by the users' ideologies on the debate topic and their emotions. To overcome this challenge, we learn representations of ideology using generative models of text. We study debates from 4Forums and compare annotated tones of replying such as emotional versus factual, or reasonable versus attacking. We show that our latent confounder representation reduces bias in ATE estimation. Our results suggest that factual and asserting tones affect dialogue and provide a methodology for estimating causal effects from text.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2019

Equal Opportunity and Affirmative Action via Counterfactual Predictions

Machine learning (ML) can automate decision-making by learning to predict decisions from historical data. However, these predictors may inherit discriminatory policies from past decisions and reproduce unfair decisions. In this paper, we propose two algorithms that adjust fitted ML predictors to make them fair. We focus on two legal notions of fairness: (a) providing equal opportunity (EO) to individuals regardless of sensitive attributes and (b) repairing historical disadvantages through affirmative action (AA). More technically, we produce fair EO and AA predictors by positing a causal model and considering counterfactual decisions. We prove that the resulting predictors are theoretically optimal in predictive performance while satisfying fairness. We evaluate the algorithms, and the trade-offs between accuracy and fairness, on datasets about admissions, income, credit and recidivism.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Scalable Structure Learning for Probabilistic Soft Logic

Statistical relational frameworks such as Markov logic networks and probabilistic soft logic (PSL) encode model structure with weighted first-order logical clauses. Learning these clauses from data is referred to as structure learning. Structure learning alleviates the manual cost of specifying models. However, this benefit comes with high computational costs; structure learning typically requires an expensive search over the space of clauses which involves repeated optimization of clause weights. In this paper, we propose the first two approaches to structure learning for PSL. We introduce a greedy search-based algorithm and a novel optimization method that trade-off scalability and approximations to the structure learning problem in varying ways. The highly scalable optimization method combines data-driven generation of clauses with a piecewise pseudolikelihood (PPLL) objective that learns model structure by optimizing clause weights only once. We compare both methods across five real-world tasks, showing that PPLL achieves an order of magnitude runtime speedup and AUC gains up to 15% over greedy search.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2017

Using Noisy Extractions to Discover Causal Knowledge

Knowledge bases (KB) constructed through information extraction from text play an important role in query answering and reasoning. In this work, we study a particular reasoning task, the problem of discovering causal relationships between entities, known as causal discovery. There are two contrasting types of approaches to discovering causal knowledge. One approach attempts to identify causal relationships from text using automatic extraction techniques, while the other approach infers causation from observational data. However, extractions alone are often insufficient to capture complex patterns and full observational data is expensive to obtain. We introduce a probabilistic method for fusing noisy extractions with observational data to discover causal knowledge. We propose a principled approach that uses the probabilistic soft logic (PSL) framework to encode well-studied constraints to recover long-range patterns and consistent predictions, while cheaply acquired extractions provide a proxy for unseen observations. We apply our method gene regulatory networks and show the promise of exploiting KB signals in causal discovery, suggesting a critical, new area of research.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2016

Adaptive Neighborhood Graph Construction for Inference in Multi-Relational Networks

A neighborhood graph, which represents the instances as vertices and their relations as weighted edges, is the basis of many semi-supervised and relational models for node labeling and link prediction. Most methods employ a sequential process to construct the neighborhood graph. This process often consists of generating a candidate graph, pruning the candidate graph to make a neighborhood graph, and then performing inference on the variables (i.e., nodes) in the neighborhood graph. In this paper, we propose a framework that can dynamically adapt the neighborhood graph based on the states of variables from intermediate inference results, as well as structural properties of the relations connecting them. A key strength of our framework is its ability to handle multi-relational data and employ varying amounts of relations for each instance based on the intermediate inference results. We formulate the link prediction task as inference on neighborhood graphs, and include preliminary results illustrating the effects of different strategies in our proposed framework.

cs.SI↗