arXiv subjects

Dhruv Desai

Publications and source records attributed to Dhruv Desai.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Scaling Laws for Task-Specific LLM Distillation

Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across a growing range of domains, yet their scale poses deployment challenges in applications where latency and cost constraints are critical. This paper derives empirical scaling laws for domain-specific LLM compression, quantifying how in-domain and general knowledge performance scale with dataset size, compression ratio, supervision format, and iterative pruning schedule. Using quantitative finance as our application domain, we compare logit-based and LoRA-based distillation under iterative structural pruning, introducing a blended chain-of-thought supervision loss that stabilizes KL-divergence distillation over reasoning traces. In-domain task quality degrades predictably under compression while general-knowledge benchmarks collapse well before the same point; supervision format is the key driver of this tradeoff, with chain-of-thought supervision actively recovering general knowledge that pruning erases. We release the headline dataset FinHeadlineMix, scaling law results, and practical recommendations to provide a reusable framework for domain-specific compression decisions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Low-Rank Dependence Decomposition via Accelerated Symmetric Non-negative Matrix Factorization

Symmetric non-negative matrix factorization (SymNMF) recovers latent group structure from a dependence matrix, but its dense, quadratic-memory objective has confined prior work to moderate sizes. We present a large-scale GPU study of seven algorithm families (over 30 configurations) on absolute Pearson correlation and tail pairwise dependence matrices from Extreme Value Theory, two proxies for empirical risk-factor estimation on large portfolios. A trace-identity reformulation eliminates all $n \times n$ intermediates, so a single GPU reaches $n \approx 10^5$ and multi-node distribution scales to $n = 10^6$ and beyond. Under a two-phase protocol, eleven methods converge at moderate scale; six remain efficient enough at $n = 10^5$ (five AdaGrad-family plus ADMM), and five AdaGrad-family methods still converge at $n = 10^6$: AdaGrad, RMSprop, and three we introduce (Piecewise AdaGrad, Row-Stochastic SVRG, Block-SVRG AdaptGrow). At $n = 10^6$ the fastest solver tracks the matrix spectrum: Block-SVRG AdaptGrow wins on the flat, ill-conditioned tail-dependence spectrum, where its lower per-iteration cost decides a long factorization, and full-batch AdaGrad wins on the dominant-low-rank correlation spectrum, where the run is short. We also benchmark spherical K-means as a hard-label baseline: cheaper when angular cluster structure is present, yet provably degenerate once the matrix collapses toward a single common factor, where the soft factorization remains necessary.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

STRAPSim: A Portfolio Similarity Metric for ETF Alignment and Portfolio Trades

Accurately measuring portfolio similarity is critical for a wide range of financial applications, including Exchange-traded Fund (ETF) recommendation, portfolio trading, and risk alignment. Existing similarity measures often rely on exact asset overlap or static distance metrics, which fail to capture similarities among the constituents (e.g., securities within the portfolio) as well as nuanced relationships between partially overlapping portfolios with heterogeneous weights. We introduce STRAPSim (Semantic, Two-level, Residual-Aware Portfolio Similarity), a novel method that computes portfolio similarity by matching constituents based on semantic similarity, weighting them according to their portfolio share, and aggregating results via residual-aware greedy alignment. We benchmark our approach against Jaccard, weighted Jaccard, as well as BERTScore-inspired variants across public classification, regression, and recommendation tasks, as well as on corporate bond ETF datasets. Empirical results show that our method consistently outperforms baselines in predictive accuracy and ranking alignment, achieving the highest Spearman correlation with return-based similarity. By leveraging constituent-aware matching and dynamic reweighting, portfolio similarity offers a scalable, interpretable framework for comparing structured asset baskets, demonstrating its utility in ETF benchmarking, portfolio construction, and systematic execution.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2025

Explainable Unsupervised Anomaly Detection with Random Forest

We describe the use of an unsupervised Random Forest for similarity learning and improved unsupervised anomaly detection. By training a Random Forest to discriminate between real data and synthetic data sampled from a uniform distribution over the real data bounds, a distance measure is obtained that anisometrically transforms the data, expanding distances at the boundary of the data manifold. We show that using distances recovered from this transformation improves the accuracy of unsupervised anomaly detection, compared to other commonly used detectors, demonstrated over a large number of benchmark datasets. As well as improved performance, this method has advantages over other unsupervised anomaly detection methods, including minimal requirements for data preprocessing, native handling of missing data, and potential for visualizations. By relating outlier scores to partitions of the Random Forest, we develop a method for locally explainable anomaly predictions in terms of feature importance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Can an unsupervised clustering algorithm reproduce a categorization system?

Peer analysis is a critical component of investment management, often relying on expert-provided categorization systems. These systems' consistency is questioned when they do not align with cohorts from unsupervised clustering algorithms optimized for various metrics. We investigate whether unsupervised clustering can reproduce ground truth classes in a labeled dataset, showing that success depends on feature selection and the chosen distance metric. Using toy datasets and fund categorization as real-world examples we demonstrate that accurately reproducing ground truth classes is challenging. We also highlight the limitations of standard clustering evaluation metrics in identifying the optimal number of clusters relative to the ground truth classes. We then show that if appropriate features are available in the dataset, and a proper distance metric is known (e.g., using a supervised Random Forest-based distance metric learning method), then an unsupervised clustering can indeed reproduce the ground truth classes as distinct clusters.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Case-based Explainability for Random Forest: Prototypes, Critics, Counter-factuals and Semi-factuals

The explainability of black-box machine learning algorithms, commonly known as Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), has become crucial for financial and other regulated industrial applications due to regulatory requirements and the need for transparency in business practices. Among the various paradigms of XAI, Explainable Case-Based Reasoning (XCBR) stands out as a pragmatic approach that elucidates the output of a model by referencing actual examples from the data used to train or test the model. Despite its potential, XCBR has been relatively underexplored for many algorithms such as tree-based models until recently. We start by observing that most XCBR methods are defined based on the distance metric learned by the algorithm. By utilizing a recently proposed technique to extract the distance metric learned by Random Forests (RFs), which is both geometry- and accuracy-preserving, we investigate various XCBR methods. These methods amount to identify special points from the training datasets, such as prototypes, critics, counter-factuals, and semi-factuals, to explain the predictions for a given query of the RF. We evaluate these special points using various evaluation metrics to assess their explanatory power and effectiveness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Enhanced Local Explainability and Trust Scores with Random Forest Proximities

We initiate a novel approach to explain the predictions and out of sample performance of random forest (RF) regression and classification models by exploiting the fact that any RF can be mathematically formulated as an adaptive weighted K nearest-neighbors model. Specifically, we employ a recent result that, for both regression and classification tasks, any RF prediction can be rewritten exactly as a weighted sum of the training targets, where the weights are RF proximities between the corresponding pairs of data points. We show that this linearity facilitates a local notion of explainability of RF predictions that generates attributions for any model prediction across observations in the training set, and thereby complements established feature-based methods like SHAP, which generate attributions for a model prediction across input features. We show how this proximity-based approach to explainability can be used in conjunction with SHAP to explain not just the model predictions, but also out-of-sample performance, in the sense that proximities furnish a novel means of assessing when a given model prediction is more or less likely to be correct. We demonstrate this approach in the modeling of US corporate bond prices and returns in both regression and classification cases.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Machine Learning-based Relative Valuation of Municipal Bonds

The trading ecosystem of the Municipal (muni) bond is complex and unique. With nearly 2\% of securities from over a million securities outstanding trading daily, determining the value or relative value of a bond among its peers is challenging. Traditionally, relative value calculation has been done using rule-based or heuristics-driven approaches, which may introduce human biases and often fail to account for complex relationships between the bond characteristics. We propose a data-driven model to develop a supervised similarity framework for the muni bond market based on CatBoost algorithm. This algorithm learns from a large-scale dataset to identify bonds that are similar to each other based on their risk profiles. This allows us to evaluate the price of a muni bond relative to a cohort of bonds with a similar risk profile. We propose and deploy a back-testing methodology to compare various benchmarks and the proposed methods and show that the similarity-based method outperforms both rule-based and heuristic-based methods.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2024

Quantile Regression using Random Forest Proximities

Due to the dynamic nature of financial markets, maintaining models that produce precise predictions over time is difficult. Often the goal isn't just point prediction but determining uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty, especially the aleatoric uncertainty due to the unpredictable nature of market drivers, helps investors understand varying risk levels. Recently, quantile regression forests (QRF) have emerged as a promising solution: Unlike most basic quantile regression methods that need separate models for each quantile, quantile regression forests estimate the entire conditional distribution of the target variable with a single model, while retaining all the salient features of a typical random forest. We introduce a novel approach to compute quantile regressions from random forests that leverages the proximity (i.e., distance metric) learned by the model and infers the conditional distribution of the target variable. We evaluate the proposed methodology using publicly available datasets and then apply it towards the problem of forecasting the average daily volume of corporate bonds. We show that using quantile regression using Random Forest proximities demonstrates superior performance in approximating conditional target distributions and prediction intervals to the original version of QRF. We also demonstrate that the proposed framework is significantly more computationally efficient than traditional approaches to quantile regressions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Open Set Recognition for Random Forest

In many real-world classification or recognition tasks, it is often difficult to collect training examples that exhaust all possible classes due to, for example, incomplete knowledge during training or ever changing regimes. Therefore, samples from unknown/novel classes may be encountered in testing/deployment. In such scenarios, the classifiers should be able to i) perform classification on known classes, and at the same time, ii) identify samples from unknown classes. This is known as open-set recognition. Although random forest has been an extremely successful framework as a general-purpose classification (and regression) method, in practice, it usually operates under the closed-set assumption and is not able to identify samples from new classes when run out of the box. In this work, we propose a novel approach to enabling open-set recognition capability for random forest classifiers by incorporating distance metric learning and distance-based open-set recognition. The proposed method is validated on both synthetic and real-world datasets. The experimental results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms state-of-the-art distance-based open-set recognition methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Data-driven compression of electron-phonon interactions

First-principles calculations of electron interactions in materials have seen rapid progress in recent years, with electron-phonon (e-ph) interactions being a prime example. However, these techniques use large matrices encoding the interactions on dense momentum grids, which reduces computational efficiency and obscures interpretability. For e-ph interactions, existing interpolation techniques leverage locality in real space, but the high dimensionality of the data remains a bottleneck to balance cost and accuracy. Here we show an efficient way to compress e-ph interactions based on singular value decomposition (SVD), a widely used matrix / image compression technique. Leveraging (un)constrained SVD methods, we accurately predict material properties related to e-ph interactions - including charge mobility, spin relaxation times, band renormalization, and superconducting critical temperature - while using only a small fraction (1-2%) of the interaction data. These findings unveil the hidden low-dimensional nature of e-ph interactions. Furthermore, they accelerate state-of-the-art first-principles e-ph calculations by about two orders of magnitudes without sacrificing accuracy. Our Pareto-optimal parametrization of e-ph interactions can be readily generalized to electron-electron and electron-defect interactions, as well as to other couplings, advancing quantitative studies of condensed matter.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2023

Company Similarity using Large Language Models

Identifying companies with similar profiles is a core task in finance with a wide range of applications in portfolio construction, asset pricing and risk attribution. When a rigorous definition of similarity is lacking, financial analysts usually resort to 'traditional' industry classifications such as Global Industry Classification System (GICS) which assign a unique category to each company at different levels of granularity. Due to their discrete nature, though, GICS classifications do not allow for ranking companies in terms of similarity. In this paper, we explore the ability of pre-trained and finetuned large language models (LLMs) to learn company embeddings based on the business descriptions reported in SEC filings. We show that we can reproduce GICS classifications using the embeddings as features. We also benchmark these embeddings on various machine learning and financial metrics and conclude that the companies that are similar according to the embeddings are also similar in terms of financial performance metrics including return correlation.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2023

Quantifying Outlierness of Funds from their Categories using Supervised Similarity

Mutual fund categorization has become a standard tool for the investment management industry and is extensively used by allocators for portfolio construction and manager selection, as well as by fund managers for peer analysis and competitive positioning. As a result, a (unintended) miscategorization or lack of precision can significantly impact allocation decisions and investment fund managers. Here, we aim to quantify the effect of miscategorization of funds utilizing a machine learning based approach. We formulate the problem of miscategorization of funds as a distance-based outlier detection problem, where the outliers are the data-points that are far from the rest of the data-points in the given feature space. We implement and employ a Random Forest (RF) based method of distance metric learning, and compute the so-called class-wise outlier measures for each data-point to identify outliers in the data. We test our implementation on various publicly available data sets, and then apply it to mutual fund data. We show that there is a strong relationship between the outlier measures of the funds and their future returns and discuss the implications of our findings.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2022

Supervised similarity learning for corporate bonds using Random Forest proximities

Financial literature consists of ample research on similarity and comparison of financial assets and securities such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc. However, going beyond correlations or aggregate statistics has been arduous since financial datasets are noisy, lack useful features, have missing data and often lack ground truth or annotated labels. However, though similarity extrapolated from these traditional models heuristically may work well on an aggregate level, such as risk management when looking at large portfolios, they often fail when used for portfolio construction and trading which require a local and dynamic measure of similarity on top of global measure. In this paper we propose a supervised similarity framework for corporate bonds which allows for inference based on both local and global measures. From a machine learning perspective, this paper emphasis that random forest (RF), which is usually viewed as a supervised learning algorithm, can also be used as a similarity learning (more specifically, a distance metric learning) algorithm. In addition, this framework proposes a novel metric to evaluate similarities, and analyses other metrics which further demonstrate that RF outperforms all other methods experimented with, in this work.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2022

Learning Mutual Fund Categorization using Natural Language Processing

Categorization of mutual funds or Exchange-Traded-funds (ETFs) have long served the financial analysts to perform peer analysis for various purposes starting from competitor analysis, to quantifying portfolio diversification. The categorization methodology usually relies on fund composition data in the structured format extracted from the Form N-1A. Here, we initiate a study to learn the categorization system directly from the unstructured data as depicted in the forms using natural language processing (NLP). Positing as a multi-class classification problem with the input data being only the investment strategy description as reported in the form and the target variable being the Lipper Global categories, and using various NLP models, we show that the categorization system can indeed be learned with high accuracy. We discuss implications and applications of our findings as well as limitations of existing pre-trained architectures in applying them to learn fund categorization.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2021

Fund2Vec: Mutual Funds Similarity using Graph Learning

Identifying similar mutual funds with respect to the underlying portfolios has found many applications in financial services ranging from fund recommender systems, competitors analysis, portfolio analytics, marketing and sales, etc. The traditional methods are either qualitative, and hence prone to biases and often not reproducible, or, are known not to capture all the nuances (non-linearities) among the portfolios from the raw data. We propose a radically new approach to identify similar funds based on the weighted bipartite network representation of funds and their underlying assets data using a sophisticated machine learning method called Node2Vec which learns an embedded low-dimensional representation of the network. We call the embedding \emph{Fund2Vec}. Ours is the first ever study of the weighted bipartite network representation of the funds-assets network in its original form that identifies structural similarity among portfolios as opposed to merely portfolio overlaps.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2020

Machine Learning Fund Categorizations

Given the surge in popularity of mutual funds (including exchange-traded funds (ETFs)) as a diversified financial investment, a vast variety of mutual funds from various investment management firms and diversification strategies have become available in the market. Identifying similar mutual funds among such a wide landscape of mutual funds has become more important than ever because of many applications ranging from sales and marketing to portfolio replication, portfolio diversification and tax loss harvesting. The current best method is data-vendor provided categorization which usually relies on curation by human experts with the help of available data. In this work, we establish that an industry wide well-regarded categorization system is learnable using machine learning and largely reproducible, and in turn constructing a truly data-driven categorization. We discuss the intellectual challenges in learning this man-made system, our results and their implications.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2018

Imprints of r-process heating on fall-back accretion: distinguishing black hole-neutron star from double neutron star mergers

Mergers of compact binaries containing two neutron stars (NS-NS), or a neutron star and a stellar-mass black hole (NS-BH), are likely progenitors of short-duration gamma ray bursts (SGRBs). A fraction >20% of SGRBs are followed by temporally-extended (>~ minute-long), variable X-ray emission, attributed to ongoing activity of the central engine. One source of late-time engine activity is fall-back accretion of bound tidal ejecta; however, observed extended emission light curves do not track the naively-anticipated, uninterrupted ~t^{-5/3} power-law decay, instead showing a lull or gap in emission typically lasting tens of seconds after the burst. Here, we re-examine the impact of heating due to rapid neutron capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis on rate of the fall-back accretion, using ejecta properties obtained from numerical relativity simulations of NS-BH mergers in a toy model for the dynamical influence of nuclear heating. Depending on the mass of the remnant black hole, r-process heating can imprint a variety of fall-back curve shapes, ranging from temporal lulls of up to tens of seconds to complete late-time cut-off in the fall-back rate. This behavior is robust to realistic variations in the nuclear heating experienced by different parts of the ejecta. Central black holes with masses <~ 3 Msun typically experience absolute cut-offs in the fall-back rate, while more massive >6-8 Msun black holes instead show temporal gaps. We thus propose that SGRBs with extended emission arise from NS-BH, rather than NS-NS, mergers. Our model implies a NS-BH merger detection rate by LIGO which, in steady-state, is comparable to or greater than that of NS-NS mergers.

astro-ph.HE↗