arXiv subjects

Dhruv Mittal

Publications and source records attributed to Dhruv Mittal.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Social influence on complex networks as a perturbation to individual behavior

Cooperation is fundamental to the functioning of biological and social systems in both human and animal populations, with the structure of interactions playing a crucial role. Previous studies have used networks to describe interactions and explore the evolution of cooperation, but with limited transposability to social settings due to biologically relevant assumptions. Exogenous processes -- that affect the individual and are not derived from social interactions -- even if unbiased, have a role in supporting cooperation over defection, and this role has been largely overlooked in the context of network-based interactions. Here, we show that selection can favor either cooperation or defection depending on the frequency of exogenous, even if neutral, processes in any population structure. Our framework allows for deriving analytically the conditions for favoring a specific behavior in any network structure strongly affected by non-social environments (frequent exogenous forcing, FEF), which contrasts with previous computationally prohibitive methods. Our results demonstrate that the requirements for favoring cooperation under FEF do not match those in the rare-mutation limit, establishing that underlying neutral processes can be considered a mechanism for cooperation. We reveal that, under FEF, populations are less cooperative, and network heterogeneity can provide an advantage only if targeting specific network properties, clarifying seemingly contradictory experimental results and evolutionary predictions. While focused on cooperation, our assumptions generalize to any decision-making process involving a choice between alternative options. Our framework is particularly applicable to non-homogeneous human populations, offering a new perspective on cooperation science in the context of cultural evolution, where neutral and biased processes within structured interactions are abundant.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Policy, Risk, and Norms Shape Collective Behaviors Worldwide

Societal responses to environmental change vary widely, even under comparable shocks, reflecting differences in both policy measures and public reactions shaped by cultural and socioeconomic contexts. We examine mask-wearing dynamics across 47 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic using a process-based, utility-driven model of individual behavior with three evolving drivers: policy stringency, disease risk, and social norms to understand emergent collective behavior. Calibrated with daily data on mask usage, COVID-19 deaths, and policy mandates, the model reproduces diverse national trajectories with minimal complexity. Policy and norms are crucial for explaining variation, and we find significant associations between weights for all three drivers and cultural and socioeconomic indicators. Our findings demonstrate how mechanistic models can uncover the processes shaping collective behavior, enabling policymakers to anticipate the magnitude and timing of behavioral change and design more effective, context-sensitive interventions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Targeted incentives for social tipping in heterogeneous networked populations

Many societal challenges, such as climate change or disease outbreaks, require coordinated behavioral changes. For many behaviors, the tendency of individuals to adhere to social norms can reinforce the status quo. However, these same social processes can also result in rapid, self-reinforcing change. Interventions may be strategically targeted to initiate endogenous social change processes, often referred to as social tipping. While recent research has considered how the size and targeting of such interventions impact their effectiveness at bringing about change, they tend to overlook constraints faced by policymakers, including the cost, speed, and distributional consequences of interventions. To address this complexity, we introduce a game-theoretic framework that includes heterogeneous agents and networks of local influence. We implement various targeting heuristics based on information about individual preferences and commonly used local network properties to identify individuals to incentivize. Analytical and simulation results suggest that there is a trade-off between preventing backsliding among targeted individuals and promoting change among non-targeted individuals. Thus, where the change is initiated in the population and the direction in which it propagates is essential to the effectiveness of interventions. We identify cost-optimal strategies under different scenarios, such as varying levels of resistance to change, preference heterogeneity, and homophily. These results provide insights that can be experimentally tested and help policymakers to better direct incentives.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Rate-Induced Transitions in Networked Complex Adaptive Systems: Exploring Dynamics and Management Implications Across Ecological, Social, and Socioecological Systems

Complex adaptive systems (CASs), from ecosystems to economies, are open systems and inherently dependent on external conditions. While a system can transition from one state to another based on the magnitude of change in external conditions, the rate of change -- irrespective of magnitude -- may also lead to system state changes due to a phenomenon known as a rate-induced transition (RIT). This study presents a novel framework that captures RITs in CASs through a local model and a network extension where each node contributes to the structural adaptability of others. Our findings reveal how RITs occur at a critical environmental change rate, with lower-degree nodes tipping first due to fewer connections and reduced adaptive capacity. High-degree nodes tip later as their adaptability sources (lower-degree nodes) collapse. This pattern persists across various network structures. Our study calls for an extended perspective when managing CASs, emphasizing the need to focus not only on thresholds of external conditions but also the rate at which those conditions change, particularly in the context of the collapse of surrounding systems that contribute to the focal system's resilience. Our analytical method opens a path to designing management policies that mitigate RIT impacts and enhance resilience in ecological, social, and socioecological systems. These policies could include controlling environmental change rates, fostering system adaptability, implementing adaptive management strategies, and building capacity and knowledge exchange. Our study contributes to the understanding of RIT dynamics and informs effective management strategies for complex adaptive systems in the face of rapid environmental change.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Two-stage Early Prediction Framework of Remaining Useful Life for Lithium-ion Batteries

Early prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) is crucial for effective battery management across various industries, ranging from household appliances to large-scale applications. Accurate RUL prediction improves the reliability and maintainability of battery technology. However, existing methods have limitations, including assumptions of data from the same sensors or distribution, foreknowledge of the end of life (EOL), and neglect to determine the first prediction cycle (FPC) to identify the start of the unhealthy stage. This paper proposes a novel method for RUL prediction of Lithium-ion batteries. The proposed framework comprises two stages: determining the FPC using a neural network-based model to divide the degradation data into distinct health states and predicting the degradation pattern after the FPC to estimate the remaining useful life as a percentage. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms conventional approaches in terms of RUL prediction. Furthermore, the proposed method shows promise for real-world scenarios, providing improved accuracy and applicability for battery management.

cs.LG↗