arXiv subjects

Diana Bull

Publications and source records attributed to Diana Bull.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Tracing the space-time causal origins of Earth system extremes

Identifying the causes of Earth's extremes is challenging because counterfactual experiments are not possible in the observed world. Data-driven causal discovery complements computationally expensive and potentially biased numerical experiments, but existing methods can struggle with undersampled, high-dimensional data and fail to recover multi-timestep, multivariate pathways leading to specific events. We introduce Tracer of Causal Evolutions in Space and Time (TraCE-ST), a probabilistic Lagrangian approach that produces event-conditioned causal trajectories in multivariate gridded data. TraCE-ST recovers known causal drivers and estimates their relative contributions in synthetic experiments and real-world extremes, including the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption. TraCE-ST also highlights less-studied drivers, such as orography-driven vorticity for Tropical Storm Debby (2006) and anomalous ocean-surface fluxes for the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. Here, we propose causal tracking as an efficient data-driven framework for synthesizing causal evidence and generating testable hypotheses, complementing association analyses and numerical modeling while accelerating the study of high-impact events.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Random Forest Regression Feature Importance for Climate Impact Pathway Detection

Disturbances to the climate system, both natural and anthropogenic, have far reaching impacts that are not always easy to identify or quantify using traditional climate science analyses or causal modeling techniques. In this paper, we develop a novel technique for discovering and ranking the chain of spatio-temporal downstream impacts of a climate source, referred to herein as a source-impact pathway, using Random Forest Regression (RFR) and SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) feature importances. Rather than utilizing RFR for classification or regression tasks (the most common use case for RFR), we propose a fundamentally new workflow in which we: (i) train random forest (RF) regressors on a set of spatio-temporal features of interest, (ii) calculate their pair-wise feature importances using the SHAP weights associated with those features, and (iii) translate these feature importances into a weighted pathway network (i.e., a weighted directed graph), which can be used to trace out and rank interdependencies between climate features and/or modalities. Importantly, while herein we employ RFR and SHAP feature importance in steps (i) and (ii) of our algorithm, our novel workflow is in no way tied to these approaches, which could be replaced with any regression method and sensitivity method. We adopt a tiered verification approach to verify our new pathway identification methodology. In this approach, we apply our method to ensembles of data generated by running two increasingly complex benchmarks: (i) a set of synthetic coupled equations, and (ii) a fully coupled simulation of the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines performed using a modified version 2 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2). We find that our RFR feature importance-based approach can accurately detect known pathways of impact for both test cases.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Spatio-temporal Multivariate Cluster Evolution Analysis for Detecting and Tracking Climate Impacts

Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. This paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Entropy-based feature selection for capturing impacts in Earth system models with extreme forcing

This paper presents the development of a new entropy-based feature selection method for identifying and quantifying impacts. Here, impacts are defined as statistically significant differences in spatio-temporal fields when comparing datasets with and without an external forcing in Earth system models. Temporal feature selection is performed by first computing the cross-fuzzy entropy to quantify similarity of patterns between two datasets and then applying changepoint detection to identify regions of statistically constant entropy. The method is used to capture temperate north surface cooling from a 9-member simulation ensemble of the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption, which injected 10 Tg of SO2 into the stratosphere. The results estimate a mean difference decrease in near surface air temperature of -0.560 K with a 99% confidence interval between -0.864 K and -0.257 K between April and November of 1992, one year following the eruption. A sensitivity analysis with decreasing SO2 injection revealed that the impact is statistically significant at 5 Tg but not at 3 Tg. Using identified features, a dependency graph model composed of 68 nodes and 229 edges directly connecting initial aerosol optical depth changes in the tropics to solar flux and temperature changes before the temperate north surface cooling is presented.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

In-situ data extraction for pathway analysis in an idealized atmosphere configuration of E3SM

We propose an approach for characterizing source-impact pathways, the interactions of a set of variables in space-time due to an external forcing, in climate models using in-situ analyses that circumvent computationally expensive read/write operations. This approach makes use of a lightweight open-source software library we developed known as CLDERA-Tools. We describe how CLDERA-Tools is linked with the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) in a minimally invasive way for in-situ extraction of quantities of interested and associated statistics. Subsequently, these quantities are used to represent source-impact pathways with time-dependent directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). The utility of CLDERA-Tools is demonstrated by using the data it extracts in-situ to compute a spatially resolved DAG from an idealized configuration of the atmosphere with a parameterized representation of a volcanic eruption known as HSW-V.

cs.DC↗