arXiv subjects

Dibyendu Nandy

Publications and source records attributed to Dibyendu Nandy.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Solar Cycle Evolution of Filaments over a Century: Investigations with the Meudon and McIntosh Hand-drawn Archives

Hand-drawn synoptic maps from the Meudon Observatory (1919 onwards) and the McIntosh archive (1967 onwards) are two important sources of long-term, manually recorded filament observations. In this study, we calibrate the Meudon maps and subsequently identify filaments through an automated method. We extract physical parameters from this filament database and perform a comparative study of their long-term evolution focusing on the cotemporal period of McIntosh and Meudon observations. The spatio-temporal evolution of filaments manifests in the form of a filament butterfly diagram, indicating further that they are intimately related to the large-scale solar cycle. Physical descriptors such as the number and length of filaments, which are tracers of solar surface magnetic field, have cycles which are phase-locked with the 11 year sunspot cycle. The tilt angle distribution of filaments - both near or distant from active region locations - indicates that their origin is due to either large-scale surface magnetic field or inter-active region field evolution. This study paves the way for constructing a composite series of hand-drawn filament data with minimal gaps stretching the time span of solar filament observations to a century. On the one hand, this would serve as useful constraints for models of magnetic field emergence and evolution on the Sun's surface over multiple solar cycles, and on the other hand, this filament database may be used to guide the reconstruction of filament-prominence associated eruptive events before the space age

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Flux erosion of magnetic clouds by reconnection with the Sun's open flux

Magnetic clouds (MCs) are flux-rope magnetic structures forming a subset of solar coronal mass ejections which have significant space weather impacts. The geoeffectiveness of MCs depends on their properties which evolve during their interplanetary passage. Based on an analysis of observations spanning two solar cycles we establish that MCs interacting with the ambient solar wind magnetic field (i.e., heliospheric open flux) lose a substantial amount of their initial magnetic flux via magnetic reconnection, which in some cases, reduce their geoeffectiveness. We find a linear correlation between the eroded flux of MCs and solar open flux which is consistent with the scenario that MC erosion is mediated via the local heliospheric magnetic field draping around an MC during its interplanetary propagation. The solar open flux is governed by the sunspot cycle. This work therefore uncovers a hitherto unknown pathway for solar cycle modulation of the properties of MCs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24-25 in Perspective

The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short timescale create space weather, slow long-term modulation forms the basis of space climate. Space weather impacts diverse space-reliant technologies while space climate influences planetary atmospheres and climate. Having prior knowledge of the Sun's activity is important in these contexts. However, forecasting solar-stellar magnetic activity has remained an outstanding challenge. In this review, predictions for sunspot cycle 24 and the upcoming cycle 25 are summarized, and critically assessed. The analysis demonstrates that while predictions based on diverse techniques disagree across solar cycles 24--25, physics-based predictions for solar cycle 25 have converged and indicates a weak sunspot cycle 25. It is argued that this convergence in physics-based predictions is indicative of progress in the fundamental understanding of solar cycle predictability. Based on this understanding, resolutions to several outstanding questions related to solar cycle predictions are discussed.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Does the mean-field alpha effect have any impact on the memory of the solar cycle?

Predictions of solar cycle 24 obtained from advection-dominated and diffusion-dominated kinematic dynamo models are different if the Babcock-Leighton mechanism is the only source of the poloidal field. Yeates et al. (2008) argue that the discrepancy arises due to different memories of the solar dynamo for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones. We aim to investigate the differences in solar cycle memory obtained from advection-dominated and diffusion-dominated kinematic solar dynamo models. Specifically, we explore whether the inclusion of Parker's mean-field $α$ effect, in addition to the Babcock-Leighton mechanism, has any impact on the memory of the solar cycle. We used a kinematic flux transport solar dynamo model where poloidal field generation takes place due to both the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and the mean-field $α$ effect. We additionally considered stochastic fluctuations in this model and explored cycle-to-cycle correlations between the polar field at the minima and toroidal field at cycle maxima. Solar dynamo memory is always limited to only one cycle in diffusion-dominated dynamo regimes while in advection-dominated regimes the memory is distributed over a few solar cycles. However, the addition of a mean-field alpha effect reduces the memory of the solar dynamo to within one cycle in the advection-dominated dynamo regime when there are no fluctuations in the mean-field $α$ effect. When fluctuations are introduced in the mean-field poloidal source a more complex scenario is evident, with very weak but significant correlations emerging across a few cycles. Our results imply that inclusion of a mean-field alpha effect in the framework of a flux transport Babcock-Leighton dynamo model leads to additional complexities that may impact memory and predictability of predictive dynamo models of the solar cycle.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

A model-free, data-based forecast for sunspot cycle 25

The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to disruptions in satellite operations, telecommunications, electric power grids and air-traffic on polar routes. Forecasting the cycle of sunspots, however, has remained a challenging problem. We use reservoir computing -- a model-free, neural--network based machine-learning technique -- to forecast the upcoming solar cycle, sunspot cycle 25. The standard algorithm forecasts that solar cycle 25 is going to last about ten years, the maxima is going to appear in the year 2024 and the maximum number of sunspots is going to be 113 ($\pm15$). We also develop a novel variation of the standard algorithm whose forecasts for duration and peak timing matches that of the standard algorithm, but whose peak amplitude forecast is 124 ($\pm2$) -- within the upper bound of the standard reservoir computing algorithm. We conclude that sunspot cycle 25 is likely to be a weak, lower than average solar cycle, somewhat similar in strength to sunspot cycle 24.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Single-shot measurement of space varying polarization state of light through interferometric quantification of geometric phase

Light beam carrying spatially varying state of polarization generates space varying Pancharatnam-Berry geometric phase while propagating through homogeneous anisotropic medium. We show that determination of such space varying geometric phase provides a unique way to quantify the space varying polarization state of light using a single-shot interferometric measurement. We demonstrate this concept in a Mach-Zehnder interferometric arrangement using a linearly polarized reference light beam, where full information on the spatially varying polarization state is successfully recovered by quantifying the space varying geometric phase and the contrast of interference. The proposed method enables single-shot measurement of any space varying polarization state of light from the measured interference pattern with a polarized reference beam. This approach shows considerable potential for instantaneous mapping of complex space varying polarization of light in diverse applications, such as astronomy, biomedical imaging, nanophotonics, etc., where high precision and near real-time measurement of spatial polarization patterns are desirable.

physics.optics↗

arXiv2019

Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions

The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar cycle is challenging. Current understanding indicates a short window for prediction best achieved at previous cycle minima. Utilizing magnetic field evolution models for the Sun's surface and interior we perform the first century-scale, data-driven simulations of solar activity and present a scheme for extending the prediction window to a decade. Our ensemble forecast indicates cycle 25 would be similar or slightly stronger than the current cycle and peak around 2024. Sunspot cycle 25 may thus reverse the substantial weakening trend in solar activity which has led to speculation of an imminent Maunder-like grand minimum and cooling global climate. Our simulations demonstrate fluctuation in the tilt angle distribution of sunspots is the dominant mechanism responsible for solar cycle variability.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

The 2019 July 2 Total Solar Eclipse: Prediction of the Coronal Magnetic Field Structure and Polarization Characteristics

On 2019 July 2 a total solar eclipse -- visible across some parts of the Southern Pacific Ocean, Chile and Argentina -- will enable observations of the Sun's large-scale coronal structure. The structure of the Sun's corona and their emission characteristics are determined by underlying magnetic fields which also govern coronal heating and solar eruptive events. However, coronal magnetic field measurements remain an outstanding challenge. Computational models of coronal magnetic fields serve an important purpose in this context. Earlier work has demonstrated that the large-scale coronal field is governed by slow surface flux evolution and memory build-up which allows for prediction of the coronal structure on solar rotational timescales. Utilizing this idea and based upon a 51 day forward run of a data-driven solar surface flux transport model and a Potential Field Source Surface model, we predict the Sun's coronal structure for the 2019 July 2 solar eclipse. We also forward model the polarization characteristics of the coronal emission from the predicted magnetic fields. We predict two large-scale streamer structures and their locations on the east and west limbs of the Sun and discuss the possibility of development of a pseudo-streamer based on an analysis of field line topology. This study is relevant for coronal magnetometry initiatives from ground-based facilities such as the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope and Coronal Multichannel Polarimeter, and upcoming space-based instruments such as the Solar Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope and the Variable Emission Line Coronagraph onboard ISRO's Aditya-L1 space mission.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

The Origin of Parity Changes in the Solar Cycle

Although sunspots have been systematically observed on the Sun's surface over the last four centuries, their magnetic properties have been revealed and documented only since the early 1900s. Sunspots typically appear in pairs of opposite magnetic polarities which have a systematic orientation. This polarity orientation is opposite across the equator -- a trend that has persisted over the last century over which magnetic field observations exist. Taken together with the configuration of the global poloidal field of the Sun -- that governs the heliospheric open flux and cosmic ray flux at Earth -- this phenomenon is consistent with the dipolar parity state of an underlying magnetohydrodynamic dynamo. Although hemispheric asymmetry in the emergence of sunspots is observed in the Sun, a parity shift has never been observed. We simulate hemispheric asymmetry through the introduction of random fluctuations in a computational dynamo model of the solar cycle and demonstrate that changes in parity are indeed possible in long-term simulations covering thousands of years. Quadrupolar modes are found to exist over a significant fraction of the simulated time. In particular, we find that a parity shift in the underlying nature of the sunspot cycle is more likely to occur when sunspot activity dominates in any one hemisphere for a time which is significantly longer than the cycle period. We establish causal pathways connecting hemispheric asymmetry and cross-equatorial phase-shifts to parity flips in the underlying dynamo mechanism. Our findings indicate that the solar cycle may have resided in quadrupolar parity states in the distant past, and provides a possible pathway for predicting parity flips in the future.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Modeling star-planet interactions in far-out planetary and exoplanetary systems

The outflowing magnetized wind from a host star shapes planetary and exoplanetary magnetospheres dictating the extent of its impact. We carry out three-dimensional (3D) compressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the interactions between magnetized stellar winds and planetary magnetospheres corresponding to a far-out star-planet system, with and without planetary dipole obliquity. We identify the pathways that lead to the formation of a dynamical steady-state magnetosphere and find that magnetic reconnection plays a fundamental role in the process. The magnetic energy density is found to be greater on the night-side than that on the day-side and the magnetotail is comparatively more dynamic. Magnetotail reconnection events are seen to associated with stellar wind plasma injection into the inner magnetosphere. We further study magnetospheres with extreme tilt angles keeping in perspective the examples of Uranus and Neptune. High dipole obliquities may also manifest due to polarity excursions during planetary field reversals. We find that global magnetospheric reconnection sites change for large planetary dipole obliquity and more complex current sheet structures are generated. We discuss the implications of these findings for injection of interplanetary species and energetic particles into the inner magnetosphere, auroral activity and magnetospheric radio emission. This study is relevant for exploring star planet interactions in the solar and extra-solar systems.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

The Association of Filaments, Polarity Inversion Lines, and Coronal Hole Properties with the Sunspot Cycle: An Analysis of the McIntosh Database

Filaments and coronal holes, two principal features observed in the solar corona are sources of space weather variations. Filament formation is closely associated with polarity inversion lines (PIL) on the solar photosphere which separate positive and negative polarities of the surface magnetic field. The origin of coronal holes is governed by large-scale unipolar magnetic patches on the photosphere from where open magnetic field lines extend to the heliosphere. We study properties of filaments, PILs and coronal holes in solar cycles 20, 21, 22 and 23 utilizing the McIntosh archive. We detect a prominent cyclic behavior of filament length, PIL length, and coronal hole area with significant correspondence with the solar magnetic cycle. The spatio-temporal evolution of the geometric centers of filaments shows a butterfly-like structure and distinguishable pole-ward migration of long filaments during cycle maxima. We identify this rush to the poles of filaments to be co-temporal with the initiation of polar field reversal as gleaned from Mount Wilson and Wilcox Solar Observatory polar field observations and quantitatively establish their temporal correspondence. We analyze the filament tilt angle distribution to constrain their possible origins. Majority of the filaments exhibit negative and positive tilt angles in the northern and the southern hemispheres, respectively -- strongly suggesting that their formation is governed by the overall large-scale magnetic field distribution on the solar photosphere and not by the small-scale intra-active region magnetic field configurations. We also investigate the hemispheric asymmetry in filaments, PILs, and coronal holes. We find that the hemispheric asymmetry in filaments and PILs are positively correlated -- whereas coronal hole asymmetry is uncorrelated -- with sunspot area asymmetry.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Dependence of coronal mass ejection properties on their solar source active region characteristics and associated flare reconnection flux

The near-Sun kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) determine the severity and arrival time of associated geomagnetic storms. We investigate the relationship between the deprojected speed and kinetic energy of CMEs and magnetic measures of their solar sources, reconnection flux of associated eruptive events and intrinsic flux rope characteristics. Our data covers the period 2010-2014 in solar cycle 24. Using vector magnetograms of source active regions we estimate the size and nonpotentiality. We compute the total magnetic reconnection flux at the source regions of CMEs using the post-eruption arcade method. By forward modeling the CMEs we find their deprojected geometric parameters and constrain their kinematics and magnetic properties. Based on an analysis of this database we report that the correlation between CME speed and their source active region size and global nonpotentiality is weak, but not negligible. We find the near-Sun velocity and kinetic energy of CMEs to be well correlated with the associated magnetic reconnection flux. We establish a statistically significant empirical relationship between the CME speed and reconnection flux that may be utilized for prediction purposes. Furthermore, we find CME kinematics to be related with the axial magnetic field intensity and relative magnetic helicity of their intrinsic flux ropes. The amount of coronal magnetic helicity shed by CMEs is found to be well correlated with their near-Sun speeds. The kinetic energy of CMEs is well correlated with their intrinsic magnetic energy density. Our results constrain processes related to the origin and propagation of CMEs and may lead to better empirical forecasting of their arrival and geoeffectiveness.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Asymmetry in Solar Torsional Oscillation and the Sunspot Cycle

Solar torsional oscillations are migrating bands of slower- and faster-than-average rotation, which are strongly related to the Sun's magnetic cycle. We perform a long-term study (16 yr) of hemispherical asymmetry in solar torsional oscillation velocity using helioseismic data for the first time. We study the north-south asymmetry in the velocity using the zonal flow velocities obtained by ring diagram analysis of the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Doppler images. We find significant hemispherical asymmetry in the torsional oscillation velocity and explore its variation with respect to depth, time, and latitude. We also calculate the hemispherical asymmetry in the surface velocity measurements from the Mount Wilson Observatory and the zonal flow velocities obtained from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager ring diagram pipeline. These asymmetries are found to be consistent with the asymmetry obtained from GONG observations. We show that the asymmetry in near-surface torsional oscillation velocity is correlated with the asymmetry in magnetic flux and sunspot number at the solar surface, with the velocity asymmetry preceding the flux and sunspot number asymmetries. We speculate that the asymmetry in torsional oscillation velocity may help in predicting the hemispherical asymmetry in sunspot cycles.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Origin and Recovery from Grand Solar Minima in a Time Delay Dynamo Model with Magnetic Noise as an Additional Poloidal Source

We explore a reduced Babcock-Leighton (BL) dynamo model based on delay differential equations using numerical bifurcation analysis. This model reveals hysteresis, seen in the recent mean-field dynamo model and the direct numerical simulations of turbulent dynamos. The BL model with 'magnetic noise' as an additional weak-source of the poloidal field recovers the solar cycle every time from grand minima, which BL source alone cannot do. The noise-incorporated model exhibits a bimodal distribution of toroidal field energy confirming two modes of solar activity. It also shows intermittency and reproduces phase space collapse, an experimental signature of the Maunder Minimum. The occurrence statistics of grand minima in our model agree reasonably well with the observed statistics in the reconstructed sunspot number. Finally, we demonstrate that the level of magnetic noise controls the duration of grand minima and even has a handle over its waiting period, suggesting a triggering effect of grand minima by the noise and thus shutting down the global dynamo. Therefore, we conclude that the 'magnetic noise' due to small-scale turbulent dynamo action (or other sources) plays a vital role even in Babcock-Leighton dynamo models.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Torsional Oscillations in the Suns rotation contribute to the Waldmeier-effect in Solar Cycles

Temporal variations in the Suns internal velocity field with a periodicity of about 11 years have been observed over the last four decades. The period of these torsional oscillations and their latitudinal propagation roughly coincides with the period and equatorward propagation of sunspots which originate from a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism operating in the Suns interior. While the solar differential rotation plays an important role in this dynamo mechanism by inducting the toroidal component of magnetic field, the impact of torsional oscillations on the dynamo mechanism and hence the solar cycle is not well understood. Here, we include the observed torsional oscillations into a flux transport dynamo model of the solar cycle to investigate their effect. We find that the overall amplitude of the solar cycle does not change significantly on inclusion of torsional oscillations. However, all the characteristics of the Waldmeier effect in the sunspot cycle are qualitatively reproduced by varying only the amplitude of torsional oscillations. The Waldmeier effect, first noted in 1935, includes the important characteristic that the amplitude of sunspot cycles is anti-correlated to their rise time; cycles with high initial rise rate tend to be stronger. This has implications for solar cycle predictions. Our results suggest that the Waldmeier effect could be a plausible outcome of cycle to cycle modulation of torsional oscillations and provides a physical basis for sunspot cycle forecasts based on torsional oscillation observations. We also provide a theoretical explanation based on the magnetic induction equation thereby connecting two apparently disparate phenomena.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

A Sun-to-Earth analysis of magnetic helicity of the 17-18 March 2013 interplanetary coronal mass ejection

We compare the magnetic helicity in the 17-18 March 2013 interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) flux-rope at 1 AU and in its solar counterpart. The progenitor coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted on 15 March 2013 from NOAA active region 11692 and associated with an M1.1 flare. We derive the source region reconnection flux using post-eruption arcade (PEA) method (Gopalswamy et al. 2017a) that uses the photospheric magnetogram and the area under the PEA. The geometrical properties of the near-Sun flux rope is obtained by forward-modeling of white-light CME observations. Combining the geometrical properties and the reconnection flux we extract the magnetic properties of the CME flux rope (Gopalswamy et al. 2017b). We derive the magnetic helicity of the flux rope using its magnetic and geometric properties obtained near the Sun and at 1 AU. We use a constant-α force-free cylindrical flux rope model fit to the in situ observations in order to derive the magnetic and geometric information of the 1-AU ICME. We find a good correspondence in both amplitude and sign of the helicity between the ICME and the CME assuming a semi-circular (half torus) ICME flux rope with a length of π AU. We find that about 83% of the total flux rope helicity at 1 AU is injected by the magnetic reconnection in the low corona. We discuss the effect of assuming flux rope length in the derived value of the magnetic helicity. This study connecting the helicity of magnetic flux ropes through the Sun-Earth system has important implications for the origin of helicity in the interplanetary medium and the topology of ICME flux ropes at 1 AU and hence their space weather consequences.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

Solar Surface Magnetic Field Simulation Enabled Prediction of the Large-Scale Coronal Structure of the 21 August 2017 Great American Eclipse: An Assessment of Model Predictions and Observations

On 21 August 2017 a total solar eclipse swept across the contiguous United States providing excellent opportunities for diagnostics of the Sun's corona. The Sun's coronal structure is notoriously difficult to observe except during solar eclipses; thus theoretical models must be relied upon for inferring the underlying magnetic structure of the Sun's outer atmosphere. These models are necessary for understanding the role of magnetic fields in the heating of the corona to a million degrees and generation of severe space weather. Here we present a methodology for predicting the structure of the coronal field based on long-term surface flux transport simulations whose output is utilized to extrapolate the coronal magnetic field structures. This prescription was applied to the 21 August 2017 solar eclipse. Post-eclipse analysis shows good agreement between model simulated and observed coronal structures and their locations on the limb. We demonstrate that slow changes in the Sun's surface magnetic field distribution driven by long-term flux emergence and evolution govern large-scale coronal structures with a (plausibly cycle-phase dependent) dynamical memory timescale on the order of few solar rotations -- opening up the possibility of large-scale, global corona predictions at least a month in advance.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

A Data Driven, Zero-Dimensional Time Delay Model with Radiative Forcing for Simulating Global Climate

Several complicated non-linear models exist which simulate the physical processes leading to fluctuations in global climate. Some of these more advanced models use observations to constrain various parameters involved. However, they tend to be very computationally expensive. Also, the exact physical processes that affect the climate variations have not been completely comprehended. Therefore, to obtain an insight into global climate, we have developed a physically motivated reduced climate model. The model utilizes a novel mathematical formulation involving a non-linear delay differential equation to study temperature fluctuations when subjected to imposed radiative forcing. We have further incorporated simplified equations to test the effect of speculated mechanisms of climate forcing and evaluated the extent of their influence. The findings are significant in our efforts to predict climate change and help in policy framing necessary to tackle it.

physics.ao-ph↗