arXiv subjects

Diego Garlaschelli

Publications and source records attributed to Diego Garlaschelli.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Strong ensemble nonequivalence in systems with local constraints

The asymptotic equivalence of canonical and microcanonical ensembles is a central concept in statistical physics, with important consequences for both theoretical research and practical applications. However, this property breaks down under certain circumstances. The most studied violation of ensemble equivalence requires phase transitions, in which case it has a `restricted' (i.e. confined to a certain region in parameter space) but `strong' (i.e. characterized by a difference between the entropies of the two ensembles that is of the same order as the entropies themselves) form. However, recent research on networks has shown that the presence of an extensive number of local constraints can lead to ensemble nonequivalence even in the absence of phase transitions. This occurs in a `weak' (i.e. leading to a subleading entropy difference) but remarkably `unrestricted' (i.e. valid in the entire parameter space) form. Here we look for more general manifestations of ensemble nonequivalence in arbitrary ensembles of matrices with given margins. These models have widespread applications in the study of spatially heterogeneous and/or temporally nonstationary systems, with consequences for the analysis of multivariate financial and neural time-series, multi-platform social activity, gene expression profiles and other Big Data. We confirm that ensemble nonequivalence appears in `unrestricted' form throughout the entire parameter space due to the extensivity of local constraints. Surprisingly, at the same time it can also exhibit the `strong' form. This novel, simultaneously `strong and unrestricted' form of nonequivalence is very robust and imposes a principled choice of the ensemble. We calculate the proper mathematical quantities to be used in real-world applications.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2021

Uncovering the mesoscale structure of the credit default swap market to improve portfolio risk modelling

One of the most challenging aspects in the analysis and modelling of financial markets, including Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets, is the presence of an emergent, intermediate level of structure standing in between the microscopic dynamics of individual financial entities and the macroscopic dynamics of the market as a whole. This elusive, mesoscopic level of organisation is often sought for via factor models that ultimately decompose the market according to geographic regions and economic industries. However, at a more general level the presence of mesoscopic structure might be revealed in an entirely data-driven approach, looking for a modular and possibly hierarchical organisation of the empirical correlation matrix between financial time series. The crucial ingredient in such an approach is the definition of an appropriate null model for the correlation matrix. Recent research showed that community detection techniques developed for networks become intrinsically biased when applied to correlation matrices. For this reason, a method based on Random Matrix Theory has been developed, which identifies the optimal hierarchical decomposition of the system into internally correlated and mutually anti-correlated communities. Building upon this technique, here we resolve the mesoscopic structure of the CDS market and identify groups of issuers that cannot be traced back to standard industry/region taxonomies, thereby being inaccessible to standard factor models. We use this decomposition to introduce a novel default risk model that is shown to outperform more traditional alternatives.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2021

The Physics of Financial Networks

The field of Financial Networks is a paramount example of the novel applications of Statistical Physics that have made possible by the present data revolution. As the total value of the global financial market has vastly outgrown the value of the real economy, financial institutions on this planet have created a web of interactions whose size and topology calls for a quantitative analysis by means of Complex Networks. Financial Networks are not only a playground for the use of basic tools of statistical physics as ensemble representation and entropy maximization; rather, their particular dynamics and evolution triggered theoretical advancements as the definition of DebtRank to measure the impact and diffusion of shocks in the whole systems. In this review we present the state of the art in this field, starting from the different definitions of financial networks (based either on loans, on assets ownership, on contracts involving several parties -- such as credit default swaps, to multiplex representation when firms are introduced in the game and a link with real economy is drawn) and then discussing the various dynamics of financial contagion as well as applications in financial network inference and validation. We believe that this analysis is particularly timely since financial stability as well as recent innovations in climate finance, once properly analysed and understood in terms of complex network theory, can play a pivotal role in the transformation of our society towards a more sustainable world.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

The ambiguity of nestedness under soft and hard constraints

Many real networks feature the property of nestedness, i.e. the neighbours of nodes with a few connections are hierarchically nested within the neighbours of nodes with more connections. Despite the abstract simplicity of this notion, different mathematical definitions of nestedness have been proposed, sometimes giving contrasting results. Moreover, there is an ongoing debate on the statistical significance of nestedness, since even random networks where the number of connections (degree) of each node is fixed to its empirical value are typically as nested as real-world ones. Here we propose a clarification that exploits the recent finding that random networks where the degrees are enforced as hard constraints (microcanonical ensembles) are thermodynamically different from random networks where the degrees are enforced as soft constraints (canonical ensembles). We show that if the real network is perfectly nested, then the two ensembles are trivially equivalent and the observed nestedness, independently of its definition, is indeed an unavoidable consequence of the empirical degrees. On the other hand, if the real network is not perfectly nested, then the two ensembles are not equivalent and alternative definitions of nestedness can be even positively correlated in the canonical ensemble and negatively correlated in the microcanonical one. This result disentangles distinct notions of nestedness captured by different metrics and highlights the importance of making a principled choice between hard and soft constraints in null models of ecological networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

A faster horse on a safer trail: generalized inference for the efficient reconstruction of weighted networks

Due to the interconnectedness of financial entities, estimating certain key properties of a complex financial system (e.g. the implied level of systemic risk) requires detailed information about the structure of the underlying network. However, since data about financial linkages are typically subject to confidentiality, network reconstruction techniques become necessary to infer both the presence of connections and their intensity. Recently, several "horse races" have been conducted to compare the performance of the available financial network reconstruction methods. These comparisons, however, were based on arbitrarily-chosen similarity metrics between the real and the reconstructed network. Here we establish a generalised maximum-likelihood approach to rigorously define and compare weighted reconstruction methods. Our generalization maximizes the conditional entropy to solve the problem represented by the fact that the density-dependent constraints required to reliably reconstruct the network are typically unobserved. The resulting approach admits as input any reconstruction method for the purely binary topology and, conditionally on the latter, exploits the available partial information to infer link weights. We find that the most reliable method is obtained by "dressing" the best-performing binary method with an exponential distribution of link weights having a properly density-corrected and link-specific mean value and propose two unbiased (in the sense of maximum conditional entropy) variants of it. While the one named CReMA is perfectly general (as a particular case, it can place optimal weights on a network whose topology is known), the one named CReMB is recommended both in case of full uncertainty about the network topology and if the existence of some links is certain. In these cases, the CReMB is faster and reproduces empirical networks with highest generalised likelihood.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Crowded trades, market clustering, and price instability

Crowded trades by similarly trading peers influence the dynamics of asset prices, possibly creating systemic risk. We propose a market clustering measure using granular trading data. For each stock the clustering measure captures the degree of trading overlap among any two investors in that stock. We investigate the effect of crowded trades on stock price stability and show that market clustering has a causal effect on the properties of the tails of the stock return distribution, particularly the positive tail, even after controlling for commonly considered risk drivers. Reduced investor pool diversity could thus negatively affect stock price stability.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2019

Local phase transitions in a model of multiplex networks with heterogeneous degrees and inter-layer coupling

Multilayer networks represent multiple types of connections between the same set of nodes. Clearly, a multilayer description of a system adds value only if the multiplex does not merely consist of independent layers, i.e. if the inter-layer overlap is nontrivial. On real-world multiplexes, it is expected that the observed overlap may partly result from spurious correlations arising from the heterogeneity of nodes and partly from true interdependencies. However, no rigorous way to disentangle these two effects has been developed. In this paper we introduce an unbiased maximum-entropy model of multiplexes with controllable node degrees and controllable overlap. The model can be mapped to a generalized Ising model where the combination of node heterogeneity and inter-layer coupling leads to the possibility of local phase transitions. In particular, we find that an increased heterogeneity in the network results in different critical points for different pairs of nodes, which in turn leads to local phase transitions that may ultimately increase the overlap. The model allows us to quantify how the overlap can be increased by either increasing the heterogeneity of the network (spurious correlation) or the strength of the inter-layer coupling (true correlation), thereby disentangling the two effects. As an application, we show that the empirical overlap in the International Trade Multiplex is not merely a spurious result of the correlation between node degrees across different layers, but requires a non-zero inter-layer coupling in its modeling.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

The Statistical Physics of Real-World Networks

In the last 15 years, statistical physics has been a very successful framework to model complex networks. On the theoretical side, this approach has brought novel insights into a variety of physical phenomena, such as self-organisation, scale invariance, emergence of mixed distributions and ensemble non-equivalence, that display unconventional features on heterogeneous networks. At the same time, thanks to their deep connection with information theory, statistical physics and the principle of maximum entropy have led to the definition of null models for networks reproducing some features of real-world systems, but otherwise as random as possible. We review here the statistical physics approach and the various null models for complex networks, focusing in particular on the analytic frameworks reproducing the local network features. We then show how these models have been used to detect statistically significant and predictive structural patterns in real-world networks, as well as to reconstruct the network structure in case of incomplete information. We further survey the statistical physics models that reproduce more complex, semi-local network features using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, as well as the models of generalised network structures such as multiplex networks, interacting networks and simplicial complexes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Enhanced Gravity Model of trade: reconciling macroeconomic and network models

The structure of the International Trade Network (ITN), whose nodes and links represent world countries and their trade relations respectively, affects key economic processes worldwide, including globalization, economic integration, industrial production, and the propagation of shocks and instabilities. Characterizing the ITN via a simple yet accurate model is an open problem. The traditional Gravity Model (GM) successfully reproduces the volume of trade between connected countries, using macroeconomic properties such as GDP, geographic distance, and possibly other factors. However, it predicts a network with complete or homogeneous topology, thus failing to reproduce the highly heterogeneous structure of the ITN. On the other hand, recent maximum-entropy network models successfully reproduce the complex topology of the ITN, but provide no information about trade volumes. Here we integrate these two currently incompatible approaches via the introduction of an Enhanced Gravity Model (EGM) of trade. The EGM is the simplest model combining the GM with the network approach within a maximum-entropy framework. Via a unified and principled mechanism that is transparent enough to be generalized to any economic network, the EGM provides a new econometric framework wherein trade probabilities and trade volumes can be separately controlled by any combination of dyadic and country-specific macroeconomic variables. The model successfully reproduces both the global topology and the local link weights of the ITN, parsimoniously reconciling the conflicting approaches. It also indicates that the probability that any two countries trade a certain volume should follow a geometric or exponential distribution with an additional point mass at zero volume.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Estimating topological properties of weighted networks from limited information

A fundamental problem in studying and modeling economic and financial systems is represented by privacy issues, which put severe limitations on the amount of accessible information. Here we introduce a novel, highly nontrivial method to reconstruct the structural properties of complex weighted networks of this kind using only partial information: the total number of nodes and links, and the values of the strength for all nodes. The latter are used as fitness to estimate the unknown node degrees through a standard configuration model. Then, these estimated degrees and the strengths are used to calibrate an enhanced configuration model in order to generate ensembles of networks intended to represent the real system. The method, which is tested on real economic and financial networks, while drastically reducing the amount of information needed to infer network properties, turns out to be remarkably effective$-$thus representing a valuable tool for gaining insights on privacy-protected socioeconomic systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Covariance structure behind breaking of ensemble equivalence in random graphs

For a random graph subject to a topological constraint, the microcanonical ensemble requires the constraint to be met by every realisation of the graph (`hard constraint'), while the canonical ensemble requires the constraint to be met only on average (`soft constraint'). It is known that breaking of ensemble equivalence may occur when the size of the graph tends to infinity, signalled by a non-zero specific relative entropy of the two ensembles. In this paper we analyse a formula for the relative entropy of generic discrete random structures recently conjectured by Squartini and Garlaschelli. We consider the case of a random graph with a given degree sequence (configuration model), and show that in the dense regime this formula correctly predicts that the specific relative entropy is determined by the scaling of the determinant of the matrix of canonical covariances of the constraints. The formula also correctly predicts that an extra correction term is required in the sparse regime and in the ultra-dense regime. We further show that the different expressions correspond to the degrees in the canonical ensemble being asymptotically Gaussian in the dense regime and asymptotically Poisson in the sparse regime (the latter confirms what we found in earlier work), and the dual degrees in the canonical ensemble being asymptotically Poisson in the ultra-dense regime. In general, we show that the degrees follow a multivariate version of the Poisson-Binomial distribution in the canonical ensemble.

math-ph↗

arXiv2018

Synchronization of phase oscillators on the hierarchical lattice

Synchronization of neurons forming a network with a hierarchical structure is essential for the brain to be able to function optimally. In this paper we study synchronization of phase oscillators on the most basic example of such a network, namely, the hierarchical lattice. Each site of the lattice carries an oscillator that is subject to noise. Pairs of oscillators interact with each other at a strength that depends on their hierarchical distance, modulated by a sequence of interaction parameters. We look at block averages of the oscillators on successive hierarchical scales, which we think of as block communities. In the limit as the number of oscillators per community tends to infinity, referred to as the hierarchical mean-field limit, we find a separation of time scales, i.e., each block community behaves like a single oscillator evolving on its own time scale. We argue that the evolution of the block communities is given by a renormalized mean-field noisy Kuramoto equation, with a synchronization level that depends on the hierarchical scale of the block community. We find three universality classes for the synchronization levels on successive hierarchical scales, characterized in terms of the sequence of interaction parameters. What makes our model specifically challenging is the non-linearity of the interaction betweenthe oscillators. The main results of our paper therefore come in three parts: (I) a conjecture about the nature of the renormalisation transformation connecting successive hierarchical scales; (II) a truncation approximation that leads to a simplified renormalization transformation; (III) a rigorous analysis of the simplified renormalization transformation. We provide compelling arguments in support of (I) and (II), but a full verification remains an open problem.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2018

Reconstruction methods for networks: the case of economic and financial systems

When studying social, economic and biological systems, one has often access to only limited information about the structure of the underlying networks. An example of paramount importance is provided by financial systems: information on the interconnections between financial institutions is privacy-protected, dramatically reducing the possibility of correctly estimating crucial systemic properties such as the resilience to the propagation of shocks. The need to compensate for the scarcity of data, while optimally employing the available information, has led to the birth of a research field known as network reconstruction. Since the latter has benefited from the contribution of researchers working in disciplines as different as mathematics, physics and economics, the results achieved so far are still scattered across heterogeneous publications. Most importantly, a systematic comparison of the network reconstruction methods proposed up to now is currently missing. This review aims at providing a unifying framework to present all these studies, mainly focusing on their application to economic and financial networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Uncovering functional brain signature via random matrix theory

The brain is organized in a modular way, serving multiple functionalities. This multiplicity requires that both positive (e.g. excitatory, phase-coherent) and negative (e.g. inhibitory, phase-opposing) interactions take place across brain modules. Unfortunately, most methods to detect modules from time series either neglect or convert to positive any measured negative correlation. This may leave a significant part of the sign-dependent functional structure undetected. Here we present a novel method, based on random matrix theory, for the identification of sign-dependent modules in the brain. Our method filters out the joint effects of local (unit-specific) noise and global (system-wide) dependencies that empirically obfuscate such structure. The method is guaranteed to identify an optimally contrasted functional `signature', i.e. a partition into modules that are positively correlated internally and negatively correlated across. The method is purely data-driven, does not use any arbitrary threshold or network projection, and outputs only statistically significant structure. In measurements of neuronal gene expression in the biological clock of mice, the method systematically uncovers two otherwise undetectable, negatively correlated modules whose relative size and mutual interaction strength are found to depend on photoperiod. The neurons alternating between the two modules define a candidate region of functional plasticity for circadian modulation.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2017

Ultrametricity increases the predictability of cultural dynamics

A quantitative understanding of societies requires useful combinations of empirical data and mathematical models. Models of cultural dynamics aim at explaining the emergence of culturally homogeneous groups through social influence. Traditionally, the initial cultural traits of individuals are chosen uniformly at random, the emphasis being on characterizing the model outcomes that are independent of these (`annealed') initial conditions. Here, motivated by an increasing interest in forecasting social behavior in the real world, we reverse the point of view and focus on the effect of specific (`quenched') initial conditions, including those obtained from real data, on the final cultural state. We study the predictability, rigorously defined in an information-theoretic sense, of the \emph{social content} of the final cultural groups (i.e. who ends up in which group) from the knowledge of the initial cultural traits. We find that, as compared to random and shuffled initial conditions, the hierarchical ultrametric-like organization of empirical cultural states significantly increases the predictability of the final social content by largely confining cultural convergence within the lower levels of the hierarchy. Moreover, predictability correlates with the compatibility of short-term social coordination and long-term cultural diversity, a property that has been recently found to be strong and robust in empirical data. We also introduce a null model generating initial conditions that retain the ultrametric representation of real data. Using this ultrametric model, predictability is highly enhanced with respect to the random and shuffled cases, confirming the usefulness of the empirical hierarchical organization of culture for forecasting the outcome of social influence models.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Evidence for mixed rationalities in preference formation

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the formation of cultural traits, such as preferences, opinions and beliefs is an open challenge. Trait formation is intimately connected to cultural dynamics, which has been the focus of a variety of quantitative models. Recently, some studies have emphasized the importance of connecting those models to snapshots of cultural dynamics that are empirically accessible. By analyzing data obtained from different sources, it has been suggested that culture has properties that are universally present, and that empirical cultural states differ systematically from randomized counterparts. Hence, a question about the mechanism responsible for the observed patterns naturally arises. This study proposes a stochastic structural model for generating cultural states that retain those robust, empirical properties. One ingredient of the model, already used in previous work, assumes that every individual's set of traits is partly dictated by one of several, universal "rationalities", informally postulated by several social science theories. The second, new ingredient taken from the same theories assumes that, apart from a dominant rationality, each individual also has a certain exposure to the other rationalities. It is shown that both ingredients are required for reproducing the empirical regularities. This key result suggests that the effects of cultural dynamics in the real world can be described as an interplay of multiple, mixing rationalities, and thus provides indirect evidence for the class of social science theories postulating such mixing. The model should be seen as a static, effective description of culture, while a dynamical, more fundamental description is left for future research.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Signs of universality in the structure of culture

Understanding the dynamics of opinions, preferences and of culture as whole requires more use of empirical data than has been done so far. It is clear that an important role in driving this dynamics is played by social influence, which is the essential ingredient of many quantitative models. Such models require that all traits are fixed when specifying the "initial cultural state". Typically, this initial state is randomly generated, from a uniform distribution over the set of possible combinations of traits. However, recent work has shown that the outcome of social influence dynamics strongly depends on the nature of the initial state. If the latter is sampled from empirical data instead of being generated in a uniformly random way, a higher level of cultural diversity is found after long-term dynamics, for the same level of propensity towards collective behavior in the short-term. Moreover, if the initial state is randomized by shuffling the empirical traits among people, the level of long-term cultural diversity is in-between those obtained for the empirical and uniformly random counterparts. The current study repeats the analysis for multiple empirical data sets, showing that the results are remarkably similar, although the matrix of correlations between cultural variables clearly differs across data sets. This points towards robust structural properties inherent in empirical cultural states, possibly due to universal laws governing the dynamics of culture in the real world. The results also suggest that this dynamics might be characterized by criticality and involve mechanisms beyond social influence.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Reconnecting statistical physics and combinatorics beyond ensemble equivalence

In statistical physics, the challenging combinatorial enumeration of the configurations of a system subject to hard constraints (microcanonical ensemble) is mapped to a mathematically easier calculation where the constraints are softened (canonical ensemble). However, the mapping is exact only when the size of the system is infinite and if the property of ensemble equivalence (EE), i.e. the asymptotic identity of canonical and microcanonical large deviations, holds. For finite systems, or when EE breaks down, statistical physics is currently believed to provide no answer to the combinatorial problem. In contrast with this expectation, here we establish exact relationships connecting conjugate ensembles in full generality, even for finite system size and when EE does not hold. We also show that in the thermodynamic limit the ensembles are directly related through the matrix of canonical (co)variances of the constraints, plus a correction term that survives only if this matrix has an infinite number of finite eigenvalues. These new relationships restore the possibility of enumerating microcanonical configurations via canonical probabilities, thus reconnecting statistical physics and combinatorics in realms where they were believed to be no longer in mutual correspondence.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗