arXiv subjects

Dily Duan Yi Ong

Publications and source records attributed to Dily Duan Yi Ong.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

unimpeded: A Public Grid of Nested Sampling Chains for Cosmological Model Comparison and Tension Analysis

Bayesian inference is central to modern cosmology, yet comprehensive model comparison and tension quantification remain computationally prohibitive for many researchers. To address this, we release $\texttt{unimpeded}$, a publicly available Python library and data repository providing pre-computed nested sampling and MCMC chains. We apply this resource to conduct a systematic analysis across a grid of eight cosmological models, including $Λ$CDM and seven extensions, and 39 datasets, including individual probes and their pairwise combinations. Our model comparison reveals that whilst individual datasets show varied preferences for model extensions, the base $Λ$CDM model is most frequently preferred in combined analyses, with the general trend suggesting that evidence for new physics is diluted when probes are combined. Using five complementary statistics, we quantify tensions, finding the most significant to be between DES and Planck ($σ=3.57\pm0.10$) and SH0ES and Planck ($σ=3.27\pm0.10$) within $Ω_kΛ$CDM. We characterise the $S_8$ tension as high-dimensional ($d_G=4.87\pm0.79$) and partially resolvable in certain extended models, whereas the Hubble tension is low-dimensional and persists across the model space. Caution should be exercised when combining datasets in tension. The $\texttt{unimpeded}$ data products, hosted on Zenodo, provide a powerful resource for reproducible cosmological analysis and underscore the robustness of the $Λ$CDM model against this comprehensive benchmark compilation.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models

We apply the $\texttt{unimpeded}$ framework to perform a fully Bayesian reanalysis of the DESI DR2 data, using nested sampling with $\texttt{PolyChord}$ to compute evidences for $Λ$CDM and seven extensions across combinations of DESI DR1/DR2, Planck CMB, supernovae (Pantheon+, Union3, DES-SN5YR, DES-Dovekie), and DES-Y1 weak lensing. The Bayesian Ockham's razor penalises extended models, yielding weaker or opposite preferences compared to $Δχ^2$-based analyses. For DESI DR2 BAO combined with Planck CMB alone, the DESI collaboration's $3.1σ$ frequentist preference for $w_0w_a$CDM is eliminated entirely: we obtain ${\ln B = -0.57{\scriptstyle\pm0.26}}$, modestly favouring $Λ$CDM. Adding DES-Dovekie, the recalibration of DES-SN5YR, maintains this concordance (${\ln B = -0.30{\scriptstyle\pm0.19}}$). However, when the earlier DES-SN5YR calibration is included instead, the DESI collaboration's $4.2σ$ result survives the Bayesian Ockham penalty as a $3.07{\scriptstyle\pm0.10},σ$ preference (${\ln B = +3.32{\scriptstyle\pm0.27}}$). That this signal persists despite the Ockham penalty makes the role of tension quantification essential: our analysis traced the preference to the earlier DES-SN5YR calibration, which introduced a $2.95{\scriptstyle\pm 0.04},σ$ conflict with DESI DR2 within $Λ$CDM -- a tension that stands out from the grid -- reduced to $1.96{\scriptstyle\pm 0.04},σ$ with the DES-Dovekie recalibration. With DES-Dovekie, the Bayesian evidence for dynamical dark energy vanishes.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

A Bayesian Perspective on Evidence for Evolving Dark Energy

The DESI Collaboration reports a significant preference for a dynamic dark energy model ($w_0w_a$CDM) over the cosmological constant ($Λ$CDM) when their data are combined with other frontier cosmological probes. We present a direct Bayesian model comparison using nested sampling to compute the Bayesian evidence, revealing a contrasting conclusion: for the key combination of the DESI DR2 BAO and the Planck CMB data, we find the Bayesian evidence modestly favours $Λ$CDM (log-Bayes factor $\ln B = -0.57{\scriptstyle\pm0.26}$), in contrast to the collaboration's 3.1$σ$ frequentist significance in favoring $w_0w_a$CDM. Extending this analysis to also combine with the DES-SN5YR supernova catalogue, our Bayesian analysis reaches a significance of $3.07{\scriptstyle\pm0.10}\,σ$ in favour of $w_0w_a$CDM. By performing a comprehensive tension analysis, employing five complementary metrics, we pinpoint the origin: a significant ($2.95{\scriptstyle\pm 0.04}\,σ$), low-dimensional tension between DESI DR2 and DES-SN5YR that is present only within the $Λ$CDM framework. The $w_0w_a$CDM model is preferred precisely because its additional parameters act to resolve this specific dataset conflict. Replacing DES-SN5YR with the recalibrated DES-Dovekie dataset, this tension is reduced and the three-probe Bayesian evidence for $w_0w_a$CDM vanishes ($\ln B = -0.30{\scriptstyle\pm0.19}$). The convergence of our findings with alternative statistical analyses suggests that the preference for dynamic dark energy is primarily driven by the resolution of inter-dataset tensions, warranting a cautious interpretation of its statistical significance.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Signatures of star formation inside galactic outflows

Observations have suggested that galactic outflows contain substantial amounts of dense and clumpy molecular gas, creating favourable conditions for igniting star formation. Indeed, theoretical models and hydrodynamical simulations have suggested that stars could form within galactic outflows, representing a new mode of star-formation that differs significantly from the typical star formation in star forming discs. In this paper, we examine 12 local galaxies with powerful Active Galactic Nuclei and high star-formation rate using spectroscopic data from the X-shooter spectrograph at the Very Large Telescope. We investigate the excitation mechanism and physical properties of these outflows via spatially resolved diagnostic diagrams (along with tests to rule out contribution by shocks and external photoionisation). Out of the seven galaxies with clearly detected outflows, we find robust evidence for star formation within the outflow of one galaxy (IRAS 20551-4250), with two additional galaxies showing tentative signs (IRAS 13120-5453 and F13229-2934). Therefore, our findings support previous results that star formation inside outflows can be a relatively common phenomenon among these active galaxies and may have played an important role in the formation and evolution of the spheroidal component of galaxies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

$\texttt{unimpeded}$: A Public Nested Sampling Database for Bayesian Cosmology

Bayesian inference is central to modern cosmology. While parameter estimation is achievable with unnormalised posteriors traditionally obtained via MCMC methods, comprehensive model comparison and tension quantification require Bayesian evidences and normalised posteriors, which remain computationally prohibitive for many researchers. To address this, we present $\texttt{unimpeded}$, a publicly available Python library and data repository providing DiRAC-funded (DP192 and 264) pre-computed nested sampling and MCMC chains with their normalised posterior samples, computed using $\texttt{Cobaya}$ and the Boltzmann solver $\texttt{CAMB}$. $\texttt{unimpeded}$ delivers systematic analysis across a grid of eight cosmological models (including $Λ$CDM and seven extensions) and 39 modern cosmological datasets (comprising individual probes and their pairwise combinations). The built-in tension statistics calculator enables rapid computation of six tension quantification metrics. All chains are hosted on Zenodo with permanent access via the unimpeded API, analogous to the renowned Planck Legacy Archive but utilising nested sampling in addition to traditional MCMC methods.

astro-ph.IM↗