arXiv subjects

Dimitris Bertsimas

Publications and source records attributed to Dimitris Bertsimas.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Solving Large-Scale Sparse PCA to Certifiable (Near) Optimality

Sparse principal component analysis (PCA) is a popular dimensionality reduction technique for obtaining principal components which are linear combinations of a small subset of the original features. Existing approaches cannot supply certifiably optimal principal components with more than $p=100s$ of variables. By reformulating sparse PCA as a convex mixed-integer semidefinite optimization problem, we design a cutting-plane method which solves the problem to certifiable optimality at the scale of selecting k=5 covariates from p=300 variables, and provides small bound gaps at a larger scale. We also propose a convex relaxation and greedy rounding scheme that provides bound gaps of $1-2\%$ in practice within minutes for $p=100$s or hours for $p=1,000$s and is therefore a viable alternative to the exact method at scale. Using real-world financial and medical datasets, we illustrate our approach's ability to derive interpretable principal components tractably at scale.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Where to locate COVID-19 mass vaccination facilities?

The outbreak of COVID-19 led to a record-breaking race to develop a vaccine. However, the limited vaccine capacity creates another massive challenge: how to distribute vaccines to mitigate the near-end impact of the pandemic? In the United States in particular, the new Biden administration is launching mass vaccination sites across the country, raising the obvious question of where to locate these clinics to maximize the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign. This paper tackles this question with a novel data-driven approach to optimize COVID-19 vaccine distribution. We first augment a state-of-the-art epidemiological model, called DELPHI, to capture the effects of vaccinations and the variability in mortality rates across age groups. We then integrate this predictive model into a prescriptive model to optimize the location of vaccination sites and subsequent vaccine allocation. The model is formulated as a bilinear, non-convex optimization model. To solve it, we propose a coordinate descent algorithm that iterates between optimizing vaccine distribution and simulating the dynamics of the pandemic. As compared to benchmarks based on demographic and epidemiological information, the proposed optimization approach increases the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign by an estimated $20\%$, saving an extra $4000$ extra lives in the United States over a three-month period. The proposed solution achieves critical fairness objectives -- by reducing the death toll of the pandemic in several states without hurting others -- and is highly robust to uncertainties and forecast errors -- by achieving similar benefits under a vast range of perturbations.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

The Price of Diversity

Systemic bias with respect to gender, race and ethnicity, often unconscious, is prevalent in datasets involving choices among individuals. Consequently, society has found it challenging to alleviate bias and achieve diversity in a way that maintains meritocracy in such settings. We propose (a) a novel optimization approach based on optimally flipping outcome labels and training classification models simultaneously to discover changes to be made in the selection process so as to achieve diversity without significantly affecting meritocracy, and (b) a novel implementation tool employing optimal classification trees to provide insights on which attributes of individuals lead to flipping of their labels, and to help make changes in the current selection processes in a manner understandable by human decision makers. We present case studies on three real-world datasets consisting of parole, admissions to the bar and lending decisions, and demonstrate that the price of diversity is low and sometimes negative, that is we can modify our selection processes in a way that enhances diversity without affecting meritocracy significantly, and sometimes improving it.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

Bootstrap Robust Prescriptive Analytics

We address the problem of prescribing an optimal decision in a framework where the cost function depends on uncertain problem parameters that need to be learned from data. Earlier work proposed prescriptive formulations based on supervised machine learning methods. These prescriptive methods can factor in contextual information on a potentially large number of covariates to take context specific actions which are superior to any static decision. When working with noisy or corrupt data, however, such nominal prescriptive methods can be prone to adverse overfitting phenomena and fail to generalize on out-of-sample data. In this paper we combine ideas from robust optimization and the statistical bootstrap to propose novel prescriptive methods which safeguard against overfitting. We show indeed that a particular entropic robust counterpart to such nominal formulations guarantees good performance on synthetic bootstrap data. As bootstrap data is often a sensible proxy to actual out-of-sample data, our robust counterpart can be interpreted to directly encourage good out-of-sample performance. The associated robust prescriptive methods furthermore reduce to convenient tractable convex optimization problems in the context of local learning methods such as nearest neighbors and Nadaraya-Watson learning. We illustrate our data-driven decision-making framework and our novel robustness notion on a small newsvendor problem.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Frequency Estimation in Data Streams: Learning the Optimal Hashing Scheme

We present a novel approach for the problem of frequency estimation in data streams that is based on optimization and machine learning. Contrary to state-of-the-art streaming frequency estimation algorithms, which heavily rely on random hashing to maintain the frequency distribution of the data steam using limited storage, the proposed approach exploits an observed stream prefix to near-optimally hash elements and compress the target frequency distribution. We develop an exact mixed-integer linear optimization formulation, which enables us to compute optimal or near-optimal hashing schemes for elements seen in the observed stream prefix; then, we use machine learning to hash unseen elements. Further, we develop an efficient block coordinate descent algorithm, which, as we empirically show, produces high quality solutions, and, in a special case, we are able to solve the proposed formulation exactly in linear time using dynamic programming. We empirically evaluate the proposed approach both on synthetic datasets and on real-world search query data. We show that the proposed approach outperforms existing approaches by one to two orders of magnitude in terms of its average (per element) estimation error and by 45-90% in terms of its expected magnitude of estimation error.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2021

Mixed-Projection Conic Optimization: A New Paradigm for Modeling Rank Constraints

We propose a framework for modeling and solving low-rank optimization problems to certifiable optimality. We introduce symmetric projection matrices that satisfy $Y^2=Y$, the matrix analog of binary variables that satisfy $z^2=z$, to model rank constraints. By leveraging regularization and strong duality, we prove that this modeling paradigm yields tractable convex optimization problems over the non-convex set of orthogonal projection matrices. Furthermore, we design outer-approximation algorithms to solve low-rank problems to certifiable optimality, compute lower bounds via their semidefinite relaxations, and provide near-optimal solutions through rounding and local search techniques. We implement these numerical ingredients and, for the first time, solve low-rank optimization problems to certifiable optimality. Using currently available spatial branch-and-bound codes, not tailored to projection matrices, we can scale our exact (resp. near-exact) algorithms to matrices with up to 30 (resp. 600) rows/columns. Our algorithms also supply certifiably near-optimal solutions for larger problem sizes and outperform existing heuristics, by deriving an alternative to the popular nuclear norm relaxation which generalizes the perspective relaxation from vectors to matrices. All in all, our framework, which we name Mixed-Projection Conic Optimization, solves low-rank problems to certifiable optimality in a tractable and unified fashion.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

A Scalable Algorithm For Sparse Portfolio Selection

The sparse portfolio selection problem is one of the most famous and frequently-studied problems in the optimization and financial economics literatures. In a universe of risky assets, the goal is to construct a portfolio with maximal expected return and minimum variance, subject to an upper bound on the number of positions, linear inequalities and minimum investment constraints. Existing certifiably optimal approaches to this problem do not converge within a practical amount of time at real world problem sizes with more than 400 securities. In this paper, we propose a more scalable approach. By imposing a ridge regularization term, we reformulate the problem as a convex binary optimization problem, which is solvable via an efficient outer-approximation procedure. We propose various techniques for improving the performance of the procedure, including a heuristic which supplies high-quality warm-starts, a preprocessing technique for decreasing the gap at the root node, and an analytic technique for strengthening our cuts. We also study the problem's Boolean relaxation, establish that it is second-order-cone representable, and supply a sufficient condition for its tightness. In numerical experiments, we establish that the outer-approximation procedure gives rise to dramatic speedups for sparse portfolio selection problems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Online Mixed-Integer Optimization in Milliseconds

We propose a method to solve online mixed-integer optimization (MIO) problems at very high speed using machine learning. By exploiting the repetitive nature of online optimization, we are able to greatly speedup the solution time. Our approach encodes the optimal solution into a small amount of information denoted as strategy using the Voice of Optimization framework proposed in [BS21]. In this way the core part of the optimization algorithm becomes a multiclass classification problem which can be solved very quickly. In this work, we extend that framework to real-time and high-speed applications focusing on parametric mixed-integer quadratic optimization (MIQO). We propose an extremely fast online optimization algorithm consisting of a feedforward neural network (NN) evaluation and a linear system solution where the matrix has already been factorized. Therefore, this online approach does not require any solver nor iterative algorithm. We show the speed of the proposed method both in terms of total computations required and measured execution time. We estimate the number of floating point operations (flops) required to completely recover the optimal solution as a function of the problem dimensions. Compared to state-of-the-art MIO routines, the online running time of our method is very predictable and can be lower than a single matrix factorization time. We benchmark our method against the state-of-the-art solver Gurobi obtaining from two to three orders of magnitude speedups on examples from fuel cell energy management, sparse portfolio optimization and motion planning with obstacle avoidance.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Stochastic Cutting Planes for Data-Driven Optimization

We introduce a stochastic version of the cutting-plane method for a large class of data-driven Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Optimization (MINLO) problems. We show that under very weak assumptions the stochastic algorithm is able to converge to an $ε$-optimal solution with high probability. Numerical experiments on several problems show that stochastic cutting planes is able to deliver a multiple order-of-magnitude speedup compared to the standard cutting-plane method. We further experimentally explore the lower limits of sampling for stochastic cutting planes and show that for many problems, a sampling size of $O(\sqrt[3]{n})$ appears to be sufficient for high quality solutions.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

A unified approach to mixed-integer optimization problems with logical constraints

We propose a unified framework to address a family of classical mixed-integer optimization problems with logically constrained decision variables, including network design, facility location, unit commitment, sparse portfolio selection, binary quadratic optimization, sparse principal analysis and sparse learning problems. These problems exhibit logical relationships between continuous and discrete variables, which are usually reformulated linearly using a big-M formulation. In this work, we challenge this longstanding modeling practice and express the logical constraints in a non-linear way. By imposing a regularization condition, we reformulate these problems as convex binary optimization problems, which are solvable using an outer-approximation procedure. In numerical experiments, we establish that a general-purpose numerical strategy, which combines cutting-plane, first-order and local search methods, solves these problems faster and at a larger scale than state-of-the-art mixed-integer linear or second-order cone methods. Our approach successfully solves network design problems with 100s of nodes and provides solutions up to 40\% better than the state-of-the-art; sparse portfolio selection problems with up to 3,200 securities compared with 400 securities for previous attempts; and sparse regression problems with up to 100,000 covariates.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Fast Exact Matrix Completion: A Unified Optimization Framework for Matrix Completion

We formulate the problem of matrix completion with and without side information as a non-convex optimization problem. We design fastImpute based on non-convex gradient descent and show it converges to a global minimum that is guaranteed to recover closely the underlying matrix while it scales to matrices of sizes beyond $10^5 \times 10^5$. We report experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets that show fastImpute is competitive in both the accuracy of the matrix recovered and the time needed across all cases. Furthermore, when a high number of entries are missing, fastImpute is over $75\%$ lower in MAPE and $15$ times faster than current state-of-the-art matrix completion methods in both the case with side information and without.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Optimal Survival Trees

Tree-based models are increasingly popular due to their ability to identify complex relationships that are beyond the scope of parametric models. Survival tree methods adapt these models to allow for the analysis of censored outcomes, which often appear in medical data. We present a new Optimal Survival Trees algorithm that leverages mixed-integer optimization (MIO) and local search techniques to generate globally optimized survival tree models. We demonstrate that the OST algorithm improves on the accuracy of existing survival tree methods, particularly in large datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Two-stage sample robust optimization

We investigate a simple approximation scheme, based on overlapping linear decision rules, for solving data-driven two-stage distributionally robust optimization problems with the type-$\infty$ Wasserstein ambiguity set. Our main result establishes that this approximation scheme is asymptotically optimal for two-stage stochastic linear optimization problems; that is, under mild assumptions, the optimal cost and optimal first-stage decisions obtained by approximating the robust optimization problem converge to those of the underlying stochastic problem as the number of data points grows to infinity. These guarantees notably apply to two-stage stochastic problems that do not have relatively complete recourse, which arise frequently in applications. In this context, we show through numerical experiments that the approximation scheme is practically tractable and produces decisions which significantly outperform those obtained from state-of-the-art data-driven alternatives.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Dynamic optimization with side information

We develop a tractable and flexible approach for incorporating side information into dynamic optimization under uncertainty. The proposed framework uses predictive machine learning methods (such as $k$-nearest neighbors, kernel regression, and random forests) to weight the relative importance of various data-driven uncertainty sets in a robust optimization formulation. Through a novel measure concentration result for a class of machine learning methods, we prove that the proposed approach is asymptotically optimal for multi-period stochastic programming with side information. We also describe a general-purpose approximation for these optimization problems, based on overlapping linear decision rules, which is computationally tractable and produces high-quality solutions for dynamic problems with many stages. Across a variety of examples in inventory management, finance, and shipment planning, our method achieves improvements of up to 15\% over alternatives and requires less than one minute of computation time on problems with twelve stages.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

From predictions to prescriptions: A data-driven response to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at a steep economic price. We design analytical tools to support these decisions and combat the pandemic. Specifically, we propose a comprehensive data-driven approach to understand the clinical characteristics of COVID-19, predict its mortality, forecast its evolution, and ultimately alleviate its impact. By leveraging cohort-level clinical data, patient-level hospital data, and census-level epidemiological data, we develop an integrated four-step approach, combining descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analytics. First, we aggregate hundreds of clinical studies into the most comprehensive database on COVID-19 to paint a new macroscopic picture of the disease. Second, we build personalized calculators to predict the risk of infection and mortality as a function of demographics, symptoms, comorbidities, and lab values. Third, we develop a novel epidemiological model to project the pandemic's spread and inform social distancing policies. Fourth, we propose an optimization model to re-allocate ventilators and alleviate shortages. Our results have been used at the clinical level by several hospitals to triage patients, guide care management, plan ICU capacity, and re-distribute ventilators. At the policy level, they are currently supporting safe back-to-work policies at a major institution and equitable vaccine distribution planning at a major pharmaceutical company, and have been integrated into the US Center for Disease Control's pandemic forecast.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Sparse Classification: a scalable discrete optimization perspective

We formulate the sparse classification problem of $n$ samples with $p$ features as a binary convex optimization problem and propose a cutting-plane algorithm to solve it exactly. For sparse logistic regression and sparse SVM, our algorithm finds optimal solutions for $n$ and $p$ in the $10,000$s within minutes. On synthetic data our algorithm achieves perfect support recovery in the large sample regime. Namely, there exists a $n_0$ such that the algorithm takes a long time to find the optimal solution and does not recover the correct support for $n 0$.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

The Voice of Optimization

We introduce the idea that using optimal classification trees (OCTs) and optimal classification trees with-hyperplanes (OCT-Hs), interpretable machine learning algorithms developed by Bertsimas and Dunn [2017, 2018], we are able to obtain insight on the strategy behind the optimal solution in continuous and mixed-integer convex optimization problem as a function of key parameters that affect the problem. In this way, optimization is not a black box anymore. Instead, we redefine optimization as a multiclass classification problem where the predictor gives insights on the logic behind the optimal solution. In other words, OCTs and OCT-Hs give optimization a voice. We show on several realistic examples that the accuracy behind our method is in the 90%-100% range, while even when the predictions are not correct, the degree of suboptimality or infeasibility is very low. We compare optimal strategy predictions of OCTs and OCT-Hs and feedforward neural networks (NNs) and conclude that the performance of OCT-Hs and NNs is comparable. OCTs are somewhat weaker but often competitive. Therefore, our approach provides a novel insightful understanding of optimal strategies to solve a broad class of continuous and mixed-integer optimization problems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Scalable Holistic Linear Regression

We propose a new scalable algorithm for holistic linear regression building on Bertsimas & King (2016). Specifically, we develop new theory to model significance and multicollinearity as lazy constraints rather than checking the conditions iteratively. The resulting algorithm scales with the number of samples $n$ in the 10,000s, compared to the low 100s in the previous framework. Computational results on real and synthetic datasets show it greatly improves from previous algorithms in accuracy, false detection rate, computational time and scalability.

stat.ML↗