arXiv subjects

Dirk Witthaut

Publications and source records attributed to Dirk Witthaut.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Site-dependent levelized cost assessment for fully renewable Power-to-Methane systems

The generation of synthetic natural gas from renewable electricity enables long-term energy storage and provides clean fuels for transportation. In this article, we analyze fully renewable Power-to-Methane systems using a high-resolution energy system optimization model applied to two regions within Europe. The optimum system layout and operation depend on the availability of natural resources, which vary between locations and years. We find that much more wind than solar power is used, while the use of an intermediate battery electric storage system has little effects. The resulting levelized costs of methane vary between 0.24 and 0.30 Euro/kWh and the economic optimal utilization rate between 63% and 78%. We further discuss how the economic competitiveness of Power-to-Methane systems can be improved by the technical developments and by the use of co-products, such as oxygen and curtailed electricity. A sensitivity analysis reveals that the interest rate has the highest influence on levelized costs, followed by the investment costs for wind and electrolyzer stack.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Multistability in lossy power grids and oscillator networks

The stable operation of the electric power grid relies on a precisely synchronized state of all generators and machines. All machines rotate at exactly the same frequency with fixed phase differences, leading to steady power flows throughout the grid. Whether such a steady state exists for a given network is of eminent practical importance. The loss of a steady state typically leads to power outages up to a complete blackout. But also the existence of multiple steady states is undesirable, as it can lead to sudden transitions, circulating flows and eventually also to power outages. Steady states are typically calculated numerically, but this approach gives only limited insight into the existence and (non-)uniqueness of steady states. Analytic results are available only for special network configuration, in particular for grids with negligible Ohmic losses or radial networks without any loops. In this article, we introduce a method to systematically construct the solutions of the real power load-flow equations in the presence of Ohmic losses. We calculate the steady states explicitly for elementary networks demonstrating different mechanisms leading to multistability. Our results also apply to models of coupled oscillators which are widely used in theoretical physics and mathematical biology.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2020

Reconstruction of Demand Shocks in Input-Output Networks

Input-Output analysis describes the dependence of production, demand and trade between sectors and regions and allows to understand the propagation of economic shocks through economic networks. A central challenge in practical applications is the availability of data. Observations may be limited to the impact of the shocks in few sectors, but a complete picture of the origin and impacts would be highly desirable to guide political countermeasures. In this article we demonstrate that a shock in the final demand in few sectors can be fully reconstructed from limited observations of production changes. We adapt three algorithms from sparse signal recovery and evaluate their performance and their robustness to observation uncertainties.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Wind Power Persistence Characterized by Superstatistics

Mitigating climate change demands a transition towards renewable electricity generation, with wind power being a particularly promising technology. Long periods either of high or of low wind therefore essentially define the necessary amount of storage to balance the power system. While the general statistics of wind velocities have been studied extensively, persistence (waiting) time statistics of wind is far from well understood. Here, we investigate the statistics of both high- and low-wind persistence. We find heavy tails and explain them as a superposition of different wind conditions, requiring $q$-exponential distributions instead of exponential distributions. Persistent wind conditions are not necessarily caused by stationary atmospheric circulation patterns nor by recurring individual weather types but may emerge as a combination of multiple weather types and circulation patterns. Understanding wind persistence statistically and synoptically, may help to ensure a reliable and economically feasible future energy system, which uses a high share of wind generation.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Data-driven model of the power-grid frequency dynamics

The energy system is rapidly changing to accommodate the increasing number of renewable generators and the general transition towards a more sustainable future. Simultaneously, business models and market designs evolve, affecting power-grid operation and power-grid frequency. Problems raised by this ongoing transition are increasingly addressed by transdisciplinary research approaches, ranging from purely mathematical modelling to applied case studies. These approaches require a stochastic description of consumer behaviour, fluctuations by renewables, market rules, and how they influence the stability of the power-grid frequency. Here, we introduce an easy-to-use, data-driven, stochastic model for the power-grid frequency and demonstrate how it reproduces key characteristics of the observed statistics of the Continental European and British power grids. We offer executable code and guidelines on how to use the model on any power grid for various mathematical or engineering applications.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2019

Stochastic properties of the frequency dynamics in real and synthetic power grids

The frequency constitutes a key state variable of electrical power grids. However, as the frequency is subject to several sources of fluctuations, ranging from renewable volatility to demand fluctuations and dispatch, it is strongly dynamic. Yet, the statistical and stochastic properties of the frequency fluctuation dynamics are far from fully understood. Here, we analyse properties of power grid frequency trajectories recorded from different synchronous regions. We highlight the non-Gaussian and still approximately Markovian nature of the frequency statistics. Further, we find that the frequency displays significant fluctuations exactly at the time intervals of regulation and trading, confirming the need of having a regulatory and market design that respects the technical and dynamical constraints in future highly renewable power grids. Finally, employing a recently proposed synthetic model for the frequency dynamics, we combine our statistical and stochastic analysis and analyse in how far dynamically modelled frequency properties match the ones of real trajectories.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2019

Collective effects of link failures in linear flow networks

The smooth operation of supply networks is crucial for the proper functioning of many systems, ranging from biological organisms such as the human blood transport system or plant leaves to man-made systems such as power grids or gas pipelines. Whereas the failure of single transmission elements has been analysed thoroughly for power grids, the understanding of multiple failures is becoming more and more important to prevent large scale outages with an increasing penetration of renewable energy sources. In this publication, we examine the collective nature of the simultaneous failure of several transmission elements. In particular, we focus on the difference between single transmission element failures and the collective failure of several elements. We demonstrate that already for two concurrent failures, the simultaneous outage can lead to an inversion of the direction of flow as compared to the two individual failures and find situations where additional outages may be beneficial for the overall system. In addition to that, we introduce a quantifier that performs very well in predicting if two outages act strongly collectively or may be treated as individual failures mathematically. Finally, we extend on recent progress made on the understanding of single link failures demonstrating that multiple link failures may be treated as superpositions of multiple electrical dipoles for lattice-like networks with collective effects completely vanishing in the continuum limit. Our results demonstrate that the simultaneous failure of multiple lines may lead to unexpected effects that cannot be easily described using the theoretical framework for single link failures.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

The winner takes it all -- How to win network globalization

Quantifying the importance and power of individual nodes depending on their position in socio-economic networks constitutes a problem across a variety of applications. Examples include the reach of individuals in (online) social networks, the importance of individual banks or loans in financial networks, the relevance of individual companies in supply networks, and the role of traffic hubs in transport networks. Which features characterize the importance of a node in a trade network during the emergence of a globalized, connected market? Here we analyze a model that maps the evolution of trade networks to a percolation problem. In particular, we focus on the influence of topological features of the node within the trade network. Our results reveal that an advantageous position with respect to different length scales determines the success of a node at different stages of globalization and depending on the speed of globalization.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Non-Local Impact of Link Failures in Linear Flow Networks

The failure of a single link can degrade the operation of a supply network up to the point of complete collapse. Yet, the interplay between network topology and locality of the response to such damage is poorly understood. Here, we study how topology affects the redistribution of flow after the failure of a single link in linear flow networks with a special focus on power grids. In particular, we analyze the decay of flow changes with distance after a link failure and map it to the field of an electrical dipole for lattice-like networks. The corresponding inverse-square law is shown to hold for all regular tilings. For sparse networks, a long-range response is found instead. In the case of more realistic topologies, we introduce a rerouting distance, which captures the decay of flow changes better than the traditional geodesic distance. Finally, we are able to derive rigorous bounds on the strength of the decay for arbitrary topologies that we verify through extensive numerical simulations. Our results show that it is possible to forecast flow rerouting after link failures to a large extent based on purely topological measures and that these effects generally decay with distance from the failing link. They might be used to predict links prone to failure in supply networks such as power grids and thus help to construct grids providing a more robust and reliable power supply.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Counter-intuitive behaviour of energy system models under CO2 caps and prices

The mitigation of climate change requires a fundamental transition of the energy system. Affordability, reliability and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions constitute central but often conflicting targets for this energy transition. Against this context, we reveal limitations and counter-intuitive results in the model-based optimization of energy systems, which are often applied for policy advice. When system costs are minimized in the presence of a CO2 cap, efficiency gains free a part of the CO2 cap, allowing cheap technologies to replace expensive low-emission technologies. Even more striking results are observed in a setup where emissions are minimized in the presence of a budget constraint. Increasing CO2 prices can oust clean, but expensive technologies out of the system, and eventually lead to higher emissions. These effects robustly occur in models of different scope and complexity. Hence, extreme care is necessary in the application of energy system optimization models to avoid misleading policy advice.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Fluctuation-induced Distributed Resonances in Oscillatory Networks

Self-organized network dynamics prevails for systems across physics, biology and engineering. How external signals generate distributed responses in networked systems fundamentally underlies their function, yet is far from fully understood. Here we analyze the dynamic response patterns of oscillatory networks to fluctuating input signals. We disentangle the impact of the signal distribution across the network, the signals' frequency contents and the network topology. We analytically derive qualitatively different dynamic response patterns and find three frequency regimes: homogeneous responses at low frequencies, topology-dependent resonances at intermediate frequencies, and localized responses at high frequencies. The theory faithfully predicts the network-wide collective responses to regular and irregular, localized and distributed simulated signals, as well as to real input signals to power grids recorded from renewable-energy supplies. These results not only provide general insights into the formation of dynamic response patterns in networked systems but also suggest regime- and topology-specific design principles underlying network function.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2018

Non-Gaussian power grid frequency fluctuations characterized by Lévy-stable laws and superstatistics

Multiple types of fluctuations impact the collective dynamics of power grids and thus challenge their robust operation. Fluctuations result from processes as different as dynamically changing demands, energy trading, and an increasing share of renewable power feed-in. Here we analyze principles underlying the dynamics and statistics of power grid frequency fluctuations. Considering frequency time series for a range of power grids, including grids in North America, Japan and Europe, we find a substantial deviation from Gaussianity best described as Lévy-stable and q-Gaussian distributions. We present a coarse framework to analytically characterize the impact of arbitrary noise distributions as well as a superstatistical approach which systematically interprets heavy tails and skewed distributions. We identify energy trading as a substantial contribution to today's frequency fluctuations and effective damping of the grid as a controlling factor enabling reduction of fluctuation risks, with enhanced effects for small power grids.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2018

Hysteretic percolation from locally optimal individual decisions

The emergence of large-scale connectivity underlies the proper functioning of many networked systems, ranging from social networks and technological infrastructure to global trade networks. Percolation theory characterizes network formation following stochastic local rules, while optimization models of network formation assume a single controlling authority or one global objective function. In socio-economic networks, however, network formation is often driven by individual, locally optimal decisions. How such decisions impact connectivity is only poorly understood to date. Here, we study how large-scale connectivity emerges from decisions made by rational agents that individually minimize costs for satisfying their demand. We establish that the solution of the resulting nonlinear optimization model is exactly given by the final state of a local percolation process. This allows us to systematically analyze how locally optimal decisions on the micro-level define the structure of networks on the macroscopic scale.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Curing Braess' Paradox by Secondary Control in Power Grids

Robust operation of power transmission grids is essential for most of today's technical infrastructure and our daily life. Adding renewable generation to power grids requires grid extensions and sophisticated control actions on different time scales to cope with short-term fluctuations and long-term power imbalance. Braess' paradox constitutes a counterintuitive collective phenomenon that occurs if adding new transmission line capacity to a network increases loads on other lines, effectively reducing the system's performance and potentially even entirely removing its operating state. Combining simple analytical considerations with numerical investigations on a small sample network, we here study dynamical consequences of secondary control in AC power grid models. We demonstrate that sufficiently strong control not only implies dynamical stability of the system but may also cure Braess' paradox. Our results highlight the importance of demand control in conjunction with grid topology for stable operation and reveal a new functional benefit of secondary control.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2018

Rotor-angle versus voltage instability in the third-order model for synchronous generators

We investigate the interplay of rotor-angle and voltage stability in electric power systems. To this end, we carry out a local stability analysis of the third-order model which entails the classical power-swing equations and the voltage dynamics. We provide necessary and sufficient stability conditions and investigate different routes to instability. For the special case of a two-bus system we analytically derive a global stability map.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2018

Linear Optimal Power Flow Using Cycle Flows

Linear optimal power flow (LOPF) algorithms use a linearization of the alternating current (AC) load flow equations to optimize generator dispatch in a network subject to the loading constraints of the network branches. Common algorithms use the voltage angles at the buses as optimization variables, but alternatives can be computationally advantageous. In this article we provide a review of existing methods and describe a new formulation that expresses the loading constraints directly in terms of the flows themselves, using a decomposition of the network graph into a spanning tree and closed cycles. We provide a comprehensive study of the computational performance of the various formulations, in settings that include computationally challenging applications such as multi-period LOPF with storage dispatch and generation capacity expansion. We show that the new formulation of the LOPF solves up to 7 times faster than the angle formulation using a commercial linear programming solver, while another existing cycle-based formulation solves up to 20 times faster, with an average speed-up of factor 3 for the standard networks considered here. If generation capacities are also optimized, the average speed-up rises to a factor of 12, reaching up to factor 213 in a particular instance. The speed-up is largest for networks with many buses and decentral generators throughout the network, which is highly relevant given the rise of distributed renewable generation and the computational challenge of operation and planning in such networks.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2018

Modeling long correlation times using additive binary Markov chains: applications to wind generation time series

Wind power generation exhibits a strong temporal variability, which is crucial for system integration in highly renewable power systems. Different methods exist to simulate wind power generation but they often cannot represent the crucial temporal fluctuations properly. We apply the concept of additive binary Markov chains to model a wind generation time series consisting of two states: periods of high and low wind generation. The only input parameter for this model is the empirical autocorrelation function. The two state model is readily extended to stochastically reproduce the actual generation per period. To evaluate the additive binary Markov chain method, we introduce a coarse model of the electric power system to derive backup and storage needs. We find that the temporal correlations of wind power generation, the backup need as a function of the storage capacity and the resting time distribution of high and low wind events for different shares of wind generation can be reconstructed.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2017

Impact of climate change on backup energy and storage needs in wind-dominated power systems in Europe

The high temporal variability of wind power generation represents a major challenge for the realization of a sustainable energy supply. Large backup and storage facilities are necessary to secure the supply in periods of low renewable generation, especially in countries with a high share of renewables. We show that strong climate change is likely to impede the system integration of intermittent wind energy. To this end, we analyze the temporal characteristics of wind power generation based on high-resolution climate projections for Europe and uncover a robust increase of backup energy and storage needs in most of Central, Northern and North-Western Europe. This effect can be traced back to an increase of the likelihood for long periods of low wind generation and an increase in the seasonal wind variability.

physics.soc-ph↗