arXiv subjects

Dogan Keles

Publications and source records attributed to Dogan Keles.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Bidding strategies for energy storage players in 100% renewable electricity market: A game-theoretical approach

Large-scale energy storage is expected to be a pivotal source of flexibility in electricity systems supplied entirely by renewable energy sources (RES). However, its strategic role in market-based dispatch remains insufficiently understood. In a 100% RES market setting, storage can improve adequacy and renewable utilization by shifting energy across time. It can also acquire market power as the main flexible, price-making technology. In this paper, we develop a Cournot competition model in which storage operators choose quantity bids to maximize profit in a stylized day-ahead electricity market supplied only by RES. Market clearing is represented through residual-demand blocks so that renewable intermittency appears as an intertemporal arbitrage opportunity for storage operators. We formulate the storage operators' problem in two tractable ways: i) a continuous reformulation based on demand blocks, and ii) an equivalent mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model with big-M linearization. Nash equilibria are computed with an iterative best-response procedure and benchmarked against a centralized social planner problem to quantify efficiency losses from strategic behavior. The model is calibrated to Denmark's DK1 bidding zone using 2024 day-ahead data and 2030 renewable-capacity and demand projections. The results show that storage reduces imbalances and improves welfare relative to a no-storage case. Concentrated ownership also creates incentives to withhold flexibility, raise prices, and slow the reduction of unmet demand and curtailment. These findings position storage as both a stabilizing resource and a potential source of market power, highlighting the importance of market designs that jointly consider competition, concentration, and capacity deployment in high-RES systems.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Cost-benefit analysis of an AI-driven operational digital platform for integrated electric mobility, renewable energy, and grid management

Integrating electric mobility, including electric vehicles (EVs), electric trucks (ETs), and renewable energy sources (RES) with the power grid is paramount for decarbonization, efficiency, and stability. A critical gap remains, however: existing smart-grid and e-mobility cost-benefit analysis (CBA) approaches do not yet provide a unified framework for appraising AI-driven operational digital platforms (ODPs) that jointly coordinate EV/ET charging, renewable generation, and grid operations across sectoral and national boundaries. This paper develops a seven-step CBA framework tailored to this class of platform. The framework maps each layer of a multi-layered AI architecture to traceable, monetizable benefit streams-panning economic efficiency, grid reliability, and environmental externalities--while explicitly accounting for AI-specific capital and operational expenditures that conventional appraisals omit. Applied to a ten-year, three-country deployment across Austria, Hungary, and Slovenia, the analysis indicates a robust positive investment case under the modeled assumptions, confirmed through scenario sensitivity analysis, one-way parameter ranking, and probabilistic simulation. Benefit composition and country-level drivers differ systematically across national contexts, yet the economic rationale is preserved in each, reflecting the framework's adaptability to heterogeneous electrification trajectories. The findings indicate the economic viability of AI-driven digital platforms for cross-sectoral energy--mobility integration and highlight the critical role of ODPs in advancing decarbonization in the mobility--power nexus. To that end, they have direct implications for the design and appraisal of digital infrastructure investments under the EU's Fit for 55 and REPowerEU programmes.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Renewable fuel regulation: Implications for e-fuel production infrastructure in energy hubs

Renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) are needed to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors that rely on liquid or gaseous fuels, such as long-haul shipping. The EU's Delegated Act on RFNBOs defines renewable hydrogen by considering rules on additionality as well as temporal and geographical correlation of the electricity used. For a Danish case study, we examine the impact on the capacity expansion problem of an energy hub producing renewable hydrogen, e-methanol, and e-ammonia using a mixed-integer linear problem formulation. We analyze the investments in production capacity, storage assets, and Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) volume under different fuel price assumptions for 2030. We find that e-methanol (combined with limited storage to secure hydrogen supply to the synthesizer) provides the best business case with a PPA volume based on the maximum allowed electrolyzer size.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Grid tariff designs coping with the challenges of electrification and their socio-economic impacts

This paper investigates volumetric grid tariff designs under consideration of different pricing mechanisms and resulting cost allocation across socio-techno-economic consumer categories. In a case study of 1.56 million Danish households divided into 90 socio-techno-economic categories, we compare three alternative grid tariffs and investigate their impact on annual electricity bills. The results of our design consisting of a time-dependent threshold penalizing individual peak consumption and a system peak tariff show (a) a range of different allocations that distribute the burden of additional grid costs across both technologies and (b) strong positive outcomes, including reduced expenses for lower-income groups and smaller households.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Green or greedy: the relationship between perceived benefits and homeowners' intention to adopt residential low-carbon technologies

Transitioning to a net-zero economy requires a nuanced understanding of homeowners decision-making pathways when considering the adoption of Low Carbon Technologies (LCTs). These LCTs present both personal and collective benefits, with positive perceptions critically influencing attitudes and intentions. Our study analyses the relationship between two primary benefits: the household-level financial gain and the broader environmental advantage. Focusing on the intention to adopt Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems, Energy Efficient Appliances, and Green Electricity Tariffs, we employ Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling to demonstrate that the adoption intention of the LCTs is underpinned by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Attitudes toward the LCTs are more strongly related to product-specific benefits than affective constructs. In terms of evaluative benefits, environmental benefits exhibit a higher positive association with attitude formation compared to financial benefits. However, this relationship switches as homeowners move through the decision process with the financial benefits of selected LCTs having a consistently higher association with adoption intention. At the same time, financial benefits also positively affect attitudes. Observing this trend across both low- and high-cost LCTs, we recommend that policymakers amplify homeowners' recognition of the individual benefits intrinsic to LCTs and enact measures that ensure these financial benefits.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Uniform taxation of electricity: incentives for flexibility and cost redistribution among household categories

Recent years have shown a rapid adoption of residential solar PV with increased self-consumption and self-sufficiency levels in Europe. A major driver for their economic viability is the electricity tax exemption for the consumption of self-produced electricity. This leads to large residential PV capacities and partially overburdened distribution grids. Furthermore, the tax exemption that benefits wealthy households that can afford capital-intense investments in solar panels in particular has sparked discussions about energy equity and the appropriate taxation level for self-consumption. This study investigates the implementation of uniform electricity taxes on all consumption, irrespective of the origin of the production, by means of a case study of 155,000 hypothetical Danish prosumers. The results show that the new taxation policy redistributes costs progressively across household sizes. As more consumption is taxed, the tax level can be reduced by 38%, leading to 61% of all households seeing net savings of up to 23% off their yearly tax bill. High-occupancy houses save an average of 116 Euro per year at the expense of single households living in large dwellings who pay 55 Euro per year more. Implementing a uniform electricity tax in combination with a reduced overall tax level can (a) maintain overall tax revenues and (b) increase the interaction of batteries with the grid at the expense of behind-the-meter operations. In the end, the implicit cross-subsidy is removed by taxing self-consumption uniformly, leading to a cost redistribution supporting occupant-dense households and encouraging the flexible behavior of prosumers. This policy measure improves economic efficiency and greater use of technology with positive system-wide impacts.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Power-to-X in Energy Hubs: Operations and Policies Supporting the Scale-Up of Renewable Fuel Production

Power-to-X (P2X) needs to scale up rapidly to provide the fuels required in the hard-to-decarbonize industrial and heavy transport sector. Only recently, the European Commission proposed requirements for \textit{renewable} fuels. P2X energy hubs enable efficient synergies between energy infrastructures, production facilities, and storage options. In this study, we explore the optimal operation of an energy hub by leveraging the flexibility of P2X including hydrogen, methanol, and ammonia synthesizers, and analyze potential revenue streams such as the day-ahead and ancillary service markets. We propose EnerHub2X, a mixed-integer linear program that maximizes the hub's profit based on current market prices, considering technical constraints of P2X such as unit commitment and non-linear efficiencies. We model a representative Danish energy hub and find that without price incentives, it mainly produces liquid hydrogen and sells renewable electricity. Only by adding a price premium of about 50\% (0.16 \euro{}/kg) to the conventional fuel prices, sufficient amounts of renewable ammonia and methanol are produced. To utilize production efficiently, on-site renewable capacity and P2X must be carefully aligned. We show that renewable power purchase agreements can provide flexibility while complying with the rules set by the European Commission.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Future role and economic benefits of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers in Germany: a systematic review of long-term energy scenarios

Determining the development of Germany's energy system by taking the energy transition objectives into account is the subject of a series of studies. Since their assumptions and results play a significant role in the political energy debate for understanding the role of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers, a better discussion is needed. This article provides a comparative assessment of published transition pathways for Germany to assess the role and advantages of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers. Twelve energy studies were selected and 37 scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 were evaluated. Despite the variations, the two carriers will play an important future role. While their deployment is expected to have only started by 2030 with a mean demand of 91 TWh/a (4% of the final energy demand) in Germany, they will be an essential part by 2050 with a mean demand of 480 TWh/a (24% of the final energy demand). A moderately positive correlation (0.53) between the decarbonisation targets and the share of hydrogen-based carriers in final energy demand underlines the relevance for reaching the climate targets. Additionally, value creation effects of about 5 bn EUR/a in 2030 can be expected for hydrogen-based carriers. By 2050, these effects will increase to almost 16 bn EUR/a. Hydrogen is expected to be mainly produced domestically while synthetic fuels are projected to be mostly imported. Despite of all the advantages, the construction of the facilities is associated with high costs which should be not neglected in the discussion.

econ.GN↗